Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 571. (Read 123271 times)

Hal Finney on the Non-Fungible Token/CryptoArt movement. Real value investments, or shitcoin scams? I believe I might reach a price-limit when I have to use my coins more productively, than HODL after 6 digits.



Credit to Justin Trimble, https://twitter.com/justintrimble/status/1357098395110952964

Like former Ripple CTO Stephan Thomas? He only has to more two attempts left to guess his wallet password, or else all $240,000,000 is locked forever.


It will become scarier everytime Bitcoin surges to hit new ATH, especially when it reaches 6 digits. Hahaha.

Yeah. it is probably good to test your systems every once in a while, and even a relatively short period of time could cause some difficulties in remembering all of the details of whatever system that you use - and I have suffered the same fate - but so far believe that I have not lost any coins through confusing my own systems - at least not that I know about.   There surely have been quite a few people who have locked themselves out of some of their own coins by either inadvertence (in NOT taking the rememberance of their own systems seriously enough) or creating systems that were too complicated for their own ability to recover their coins at a later date.

Being your own bank is an awesome responsibility and scary too...

Surge baby SURGE! What’s causing it? Did Elon Musk do a Michael Saylor?


Because of my laziness of setting up another offline cold storage, it prevents me from touching those coins. But sometimes I do question myself if I have written the correct seed words in order. Hahaha.

I cannot really disagree with your overall point here, exstasie - even though early 2013 had  more than 70% drawback and it lasted more than 4 months. 

Of course, no two cycles are going to look alike - but they might have some similar kinds of dynamics including something likely suggest that we might not get back to $42k for a few months - even from here... and still be in decent shape for shooting past that current ATH of $42k.



That is probably a bit of an unfair belief in terms of if you allow it to skew your thinking.  It seems quite factual (even if NOT recognized by a lot of folks - even BTC HODLers) that bitcoin has been providing opportunities for quite a few retail and regular joes to be able to front-run the BIGGER players, and the vast majority of investments do not allow for that kind of ability to front-run the more sophisticated players.

So, yeah, I cannot really disagree with your assessment that a decent number of the regular joes are going to end up getting shaken out their hands by selling too many BTC too early... and not holding onto nearly enough of a quantity of BTC in order to make real differences in benefiting in the actual transfer of wealth that has been going on since the arrival of bitcoin.



Some of the ways of holding bitcoin are evolving and sure there are likely some better practices regarding how to hold bitcoin and maybe how to split them and various kinds of extra security measures..

Regarding the mere fact that bitcoin is going up so much in price does cause some folks to shave small amounts of bitcoin off along the way and perhaps that shaving off can help to make you less worried in case the price corrects longer and further than expected... but it may not do a whole hell of a lot  if you are continuing to have fears in regards to however you have been holding your coins.

Luck doesn't just happen, we just have to work towards it, but with the strength of the market demand and supply level, I expect the market to stuck in the price range you mentioned till early Q4 market before it will dump below and there's also a chance that will may not see the price going below $25K but people believe history always repeats itself in the crypto market and if it does market blood will make the market dip below $25K but it will depend on the major (institutions and whales) investor's decision.

It’s only about a belief I have that Bitcoin should transfer from weak hands to strong, then strong hands to stronger hands before a surge to 6 digits is possible. The recent crash from ATH showed that those coins sold should probably be owned by stronger hands.

If I was honest, I had some times of weakness because of fear. Fear that I am holding all my savings with a seed written on a piece of paper.

Slow and steady wins the race. If we're lucky, we'll be stuck in the $25-40K range for several months, like Q2-Q3 of 2013. Not only will that give us lots more time to accumulate and build long futures positions with low premiums, but the market will be coiled up like a spring when the range finally breaks. That'll make for a very powerful next leg up. No way the market will stop at $50K after that sort of multi-month consolidation. Likely will blast off straight to (or through) $100K.

Yeah.. anything "might" happen, and sure we have to prepare for either price direction, but seems like a whole hell of a lot of wishful thinking if people are postulating that $42k happens to be the blow off top for this particular cycle and that another 2-3 year bear cycle is likely to come from here.

The fact of the matter to me seems to be that way too many normies tend to be preparing for down rather than UP.. and this has been a common mistake throughout the years..

And, even you, Wind_FURY, seem to be making postulates that are contrary to the underlying theme to this thread.. which is supposed to be ongoingly pushing people to prepare for up by buying on dips and holding... which is quite sound advice - even if some seemingly unlikely scenario of a 2-3 bear cycle would happen from here.

Furthermore, what actually seems to be happening in this particular cycle is that BTC prices are getting a bit ahead of themselves in terms o where they should be at this particular time in terms of the various currently sound BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on networking effects and metcalfe principles.

But in my thinking I doubt that getting ahead provides high justification to start to believe that an actual blow off top has occurred for this cycle.. and there are even decently likely scenarios that we could have something like 2013 in which there ends up being a double top for this upcoming year rather than a more gradual one top.



I surely am NOT making any proclamations in regards to bitcoins price performance or in terms of price dynamic scenarios that are playing out or might play out in terms of what I want.. Shit just happens, and sure you might be coming to conclusions that you believe that more negative scenarios might play out, and you are entitled to whatever opinion that you like.  I just think that you are talking in terms of what seems to be less likely scenarios....and if you want to play your hand like that, then that's your choice.. seems a bit bearish to me.. even though my actual finances and my psychology is prepared for long ass dips, even from here.. I just don't ascribe them as being very highly probable at this point, and it has hardly anything at all to do with what I actually want.


That seems to be a pretty BIG ASS fallacy in thinking if you actually believe that some kind of "down" must happen in order for BTC to reach 6 digits....   Sure if you were treating bitcoin as some kind of a mature asset class or it was not paradigm shifting technology then sure maybe there would be some need for DOWNity before UPpity.

Did someone take over your account Wind_FURY?   (Maybe you are trying to be a devil's advocate in this responsive post, but com'mon.... ) 

How much FUD did Bitcoin experience in one month?

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1352549830938271744

Many.

How many more months before months before Bitcoin reaches 6 digits?



Few?

Don’t let them trick you into selling what they truly want from you. Your Bitcoin. HODL or DIE!

OR, it could be the finish line for this bull cycle, and the starting point of another 2 - 3 year bear cycle. We might not want it, but it must happen for the next phase up, going to 6 digits.

I would not have phrased it exactly like that even though I agree with your overall point, but I have my doubts about whether we can assign any kinds of high expectations on any presumption of further BTC price dippenings, even if we are currently within a short-term dippening and many of us understand that the trend tends to be your friend.. even though on the short-term that trend can reverse at any time and punish the fuck out of you, if you presume too much or assign too high of values to price direction expectations - especially betting on down in a bull market.

In other words, I do agree with the point that we are currently having a short-term sale in which buying should be seriously considered (and prepared for).. possibly executed at this very price point, and there might be even further BTC sales prices coming within the near term future (not guaranteed, but may well happen, which means you should be HODLing and or buying lillie fiends, but not selling them  and expecting to buy back lower like some kind of demented (or quasi-demented) gambling addict ... hahahahahhaha)   

Strategic preparation remains the name of the game which is preparation for both UPpity and DOWNity even when the odds for short-term DOWNity feel decently strong at the moment.

I believe it’s the best occassion to tell your annoying friends, and family who are asking about Bitcoin to have their exchange accounts ready, and crammed with fiat. Buy the DIP, and HODL season will start within days/weeks for a short time, before moon.

Sure it is possible that there is some legitimacy, but seems best to presume that they are a bunch of scams and a waste of time, even if you believe that you can get into them without getting screwed by some central team trying to print money and exit scam on you.


Surely best to avoid that crap.. but sure, if you want to study the space and gamble, that is on you.



That comment comes off as bitter... as if early investors into bitcoin did not deserve whatever outrageously high returns that they received...   And, yeah maybe some of the dumb fucks are investing into shit projects, but not necessarily so.. Of course, some money comes from bitcoiners and other money comes from people they dupe into believing that there is some value in whatever convoluted ponzi scheme money printing machine that they are promoting as if it were to add any value beyond smoke and screens.



We can agree to disagree including maybe recognizing that this is a bitcoin thread anyhow.. so why give any benefit of the doubt to shitcoins when shitcoins are off topic in this thread... And, sure you can do what you like in terms of choosing not to actively diss shitcoins.  I believe that on a general note they deserved to be dissed whenever they are brought up.,. so the presumption would be to diss them rather than to give them any sliver of a benefit of a doubt.. unless they happen to deserve such benefit of the doubt and still you better remain skeptical with even the seemingly "good" ones.

And, furthermore I would not recommend buying on dip for any shitcoins, because bitcoin is the ONLY one that such principle applies in terms of long term fundamentals and providing actual value rather than some bullshit that you have to constantly monitor and attempt to figure out how and when to time the getting out aspect of any amount of value that you might end up putting into such shit coins.. hopefully none is the best presumptive starting point for shitcoins.

I agree that all the value flowing into Ethereum or Alt-coins is because of Bitcoin. That does not mean that anybody in this space, especially the newbies who have more time than money, can afford to ignore the products that some of these projects are genuinely trying to make profitable. I follow quite a few projects in the Alt-space not because I just want insane returns but because some of them have legitimate teams putting effort to change the way we interact with finance.

That will certainly have some value in the long term. But its not for the faint of heart and the most that a normal person can expect is to benefit from the knowledge or have minor return commensurate to effort put. The insane returns typically go to the person who has the most money to throw around, which again are the BTC millionaires from an earlier era.


Rightly said. The predictions and models are for professional traders. For most common people, not having a stake in bitcoin is an opportunity cost. Yet, as a small guy, you have to accept that the time when BTC turned small guys into big guys is pretty much over now. What you should focus on is to manage your crypto portfolio with responsibility.

The corporatization of BTC and institutional investors coming in is also one of the reasons I don't believe in actively dissing Alt-coins anymore.

This is the IMF’s own poll, probably votes made by their own followers! Hahaha. This obviously shows there’s distrust in the system.



If only there was a form of “money” invented, with issuance that couldn’t be controlled by a centralized entity.

Never listen to any FUD made against Bitcoin!

HOLD THE LINE!



STAY WITH ME!



We are MONTHS away from reaching a new All Time High. Be ready, https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/rhodl-ratio/

I am going to quibble a bit with your use of the characterization "trillion dollar marketcap" Questat.  Of course, it seeming quite likely that bitcoin is going to reach a trillion dollar market cap in the near future, and reaching that trillion dollar market cap will be around $53k-ish..

It seems to me to be quite muddied thinking to be prematurely characterizing a trillion dollar marketcap when we are talking about bitcoin by including various shitcoin valuations within our conception of the market or the relevant market.    

By the way, so far bitcoin has only reached about $750billion market cap when its price was $42k.

Anyhow, just seems to be muddied thinking to incorporate a reference to a crypto market cap reference into talking about bitcoin without specifying that you are doing it or to make sure that you are clarifying that the bitcoin portion of that market cap is the most important part - even if value is flowing in and out of shitcoins from bitcoin and causing fluctuations in the crypto market cap... but in the end, who gives any shits about the crypto market cap unless you somehow believe that ethereum and some of the various other shitcoins have any value apart from the fact that they are sucking off the teets of bitcoin... or should we call it the "apron effect."


I agree that short-term we are going to have a lot of difficulties figuring out what bitcoin's price direction is going to be and/or whether momentum is going to carry its price in one direction or another.. but if we are mostly attempting to prepare (and invest) into bitcoin on a long term basis, then we should not give too many shits about its shorter term price swings, except maybe attempting to take advantage of the price swings and surely wherever someone might be in his/her bitcoin accumulation phase might affect the approach to how to attempt to sufficiently stack up on bitcoins or to maintain such stack.,. if the stacking up has reached decent allocations from a personal perspective.

So in that regard, the three most convincing current BTC price models seem to be the stock to flow, 4-year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on networking effects and Metcalfe principles.  And, even the longer term BTC price prediction models are based on probabilities and each of us who invest in bitcoin should be attempting to assign some kinds of expectations in regards to how much credence to give to the various BTC price prediction models and how we might attempt to adapt our own personal financial situations to such views about the longer term BTC price prediction models.

When I analyze the price, I always do my best and believe on my analysis, however, based on my honest experience, I have a lot of wrong analysis that my expectation does not happen, that's why I say bitcoin movement is so unpredictable, we thought it will pump but the opposite will happen.

Of course, we don't have the same analysis, and it's just normal than when some lose money, the others will make money.

That is why we always have a clear mind about how the next increase will be but expectations are not always right so with low prices it can be maximized to buy because with confidence we can get shorter profits even 2 days from bitcoin drop of almost $40k.

We continue to see how the numbers move and sometimes even analysis we have to look closely with the chart for those who understand it so I am sure $32k will be the lowest and now it will be stronger to $40k and it will not take long.