Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 575. (Read 123226 times)

This my characteristic way waiting for when bitcoin or altcoin on lower price, I am not smart for analyze with chart and always think the most impact with price is bad or good news and there are not space to read chart because some one hold much assets is the power full how to make price, just waiting when he made good or bad news to buy and sell bitcoin or altcoin, when waste time for read chart but suddenly give bad news we loss chance to buy coin, look what happen last night when bitcoin suddenly dump but few hours later bitcoin and altcoin back to higher price most faster.

We can neither presume that we are going to get greater dips than 17% nor can we presume that monineklutak has established any kind of meaningful stake in bitcoin.

Sure, corrections of 30% to 40% or even greater than 50% can come at any time, but we cannot necessarily presume them - especially after having nearly 3 years of a large number of corrections... and bringing us down about 85% from the December 2017 top... and even a few pretty decent additional corrections therein.

If someone is just starting to get serious about bitcoin, then they are trying to figure out a plan, but they might NOT have figured out how much of a dip is enough of a dip, and so in that regard, our acknowledgement of a 17% dip might be one in which it could have been advantageous to have taken some action...

I am NOT a big fan of wait.. until the person wanting to accumulate BTC feels that they are decently prepared for UP.. or at least have some BTC... so sure, the devil is still in the details to a considerable degree regarding if some person might feel that they are decently and adequately prepared for UP given their assessment of their circumstances.



Well yeah.. that was last year, the year before and the year before.. we may well be in a bit of a different market, and yes I might also be preaching to the choir, but any of us who might not have any coins, but we are waiting for sub $16k, that might not happen... sure it could, but seems to me that it is good to prepare for either possibility..


At some point people may reach a point in which they have already prepared for UP, and maybe even overstocked in BTC so they feel that they have enough for UP.   Once you reach that status, then you may well prefer UP.  I have been largely in that position since late 2014.. but my stacking of BTC in 2015 and 2016 solidified the position more, and the raise in BTC prices has also further solidified that position.  Some BTC HODLers, once you get into a mostly HODLing status, don't necessarily find any advantages for downs.. Of course, it could make the BTC price more stable to have Downs along the way, and of course, no asset goes straight up.. but still, if you are mostly invested in the asset, then there should not be any problems with mostly continuous and ongoing UP.


I don't think that is the dilemma.. it is a matter of already being prepared for UP.. .

I understand that if you are not prepared for UP, or you do not have a good income, it could take 10, 20 30 or more years to have enough cashflow in order to feel prepared for UP... I am not necessarily presuming that everyone can get in, but surely, there are likely a decent number of people without large cashflows who feel that they need more time to accumulate a sufficient stash of BTC.


Not necessarily.

However I understand that there are market dynamics, too.... and this last BTC price run from early September broke through resistances in the $12,500 area, $13,880 area, and the $17,250 area.. without too many revisiting of any of these prices...

But a down correction is NOT a condition precedent for UP, so we could just end up continuing UP from here.  I do not proclaim to know which way the BTC price is going to go... and of course, I am always prepared for some down because my practice is to shave off small amounts of BTC on the way UP so that if the BTC price does correct down, then I will have cash to be able to buy as the BTC price is correcting, but that still does not take away my preference for up.. even though I am somewhat trying to be emotionally neutral and if the price does not go up,... that is fine, too.. I have enough BTC either way.


Sure.. understandable if you are in a position that you are still building your investment portfolio, then it is understandable that you are more able to take advantage of flat or down or even NO rush in the BTC price going up... however, that does not seem to be the world that we are living in.  BTC looks quite poised to head up from here, whether we like it or not, and BTC does not give any shits about what we might prefer.  It seems to be that kind of an asset, and sure there are no guarantees what BTC is going to doi even though the most convincing of BTC price prediction models seem to show pretty decent probabilities that BTC prices are heading UP from here rather than either down or sideways... and sure there might be some consolidation in this area and even decent corrections, but it still remains a good approach to attempt to prepare for UP as well as you can.

You already know the three most convincing of BTC price prediction models, but it does not hurt to repeat them.  Namely 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects.


Sure.  I am surely not saying that such corrections are NOT possible, but for sure, as I already asserted they are NOT a condition precedent for the BTC price to continue UPpity.  I give little shits which way it goes because I am prepared for any of the directions of UP, Down or sideways.. and of course, I would prefer it does not go to zero or have some outrageous event that causes it to revisit the 208 week moving average (which is approaching $7,200.,. moving up $100 every couple of weeks in recent times).. that would suck.. but I have buy orders that go down to $5k.. so I could deal with it, even though it would not be a preferred situation from my perspective... and probably would not even fair well for the prospects of bitcoin.. but we are not really in that kind of posture, and if we are attempting to be realistic, we are seeming to posture towards UP rather than DOWN.. even though corrections can happen, as you have been saying (and I am not really saying anything different, except that the BTC price does not really seem to be postured very well in that direction, and maybe you are giving higher odds to down, than I am giving.. perhaps?)



I don't give any shits... I just go by the models... so it is what it is.

When I got into BTC, I had hoped for 6% price appreciation per year in order that it averages at least the same as my traditional investments.  So the first few years, I did not get that 6% per year, but in the end it averaged out to way more than 6% per year, and seems to have been proving itself to be performing quite beyond an average of 6% per year.

In recent times, I have largely considered that it might be more reasonable to expect it to rise 12%-ish per year rather than 6%, and I use the 208-week moving average to attempt to figure that out... So really, I give less that two shits in terms of my preferences, because bitcoin has been way out performing my expectations and seems to be poised to continue to way out perform my preferences, and it does not really matter what I want.


We are saying similar things... and we seem to be just in differing positions, so I am not really sure what to say.. because you can ONLY do what you can do in order to accumulate BTC.. maybe your cashflow is not sufficient, I do not know.  I know that when I was in college, my investments kind of sucked, because I was investing in myself.. but still these days we are finding undermining of the dollar in various kinds of ways, so surely each of us has to figure out how to balance our BTC position and figure out ways that we are prepared for UP.. or maximizing our attempt to figure out the BTC price direction in the event that we feel that we are not adequately prepared for UP.

The first 25 years of my investing, I did not find any kind of asset like BTC.. so BTC is a unique kind of asset that NOT all people are going to take advantage, and sure dragonvslinux, one of your advantages remains that you know about BTC and you have been taking actions for at least a few years.. Maybe some of your actions have been inadequate in various regards, but seems to me that you are more advantaged to know about BTC than nearly 99% of the population of the world that have not taken much if any stake in BTC and do not even know about it, except maybe recognizing the word.


I am talking about "is" not "ought".. so, again, bitcoin does not give any shit about what we think.. we just have to attempt to play what we believe is going to happen to the best of our ability in terms of our own situation.  Since I have been stacking sats since late 2013 and stacking both dollars and sats since late 2015, my portfolio and my system just buys if the price goes down and sells if the price goes up, and of course, I prefer up.. and of course, I do not really sell very much on the way up.. and it ends up being plenty of stacking of dollars that can be used in the event that the BTC price goes down, but if it does not go down, then I just spend those dollars, at some point.. At some point, just remove them out of my system and spend them.

I understand that this particular thread is not about selling it is about buying the dip and HODLing.. which kind of presumes that you are already prepared for UP.. but you have to get to being prepared for UP before you should be fucking around with selling any of your BTC. .and that is how I think about it, even though people think differently about how to approach the matter... my approach has been to overstock in BTC so that I don't give any shits if I happen to shave a bit extra of them off as the BTC price goes up.  But you gotta get to that level first, in my thinking.. which seems to be what this thread is counseling.


I am not sure if BTC price matters, exactly, in terms of figuring out if you have enough BTC.  Of course, on a personal level, you can probably plot out your own situation too, and kind of get an idea about if you have enough, or not.  If you believe that you have accumulated enough BTC, then so be it.. that's your judgement. 

Of course if you have not accumulated enough BTC then you would have to buy at whatever happens to be the price.. and yeah, by definition noobs and no coiners have likely not accumulated enough BTC, yet.  That is for them to decide and to figure out based on their own situation and base on their view of bitcoin an those other individual factors..

Of course, we can play roles to help noobs, no coiners and pre-coiners to figure out their BTC accumulation strategies, whether it is buying on dips, DCA, HODL and other strategies that have worked for us in the past and seem to be prudent strategies in bitcoin, including learning about bitcoin as the space is likely going to continue to evolve and we will continue to learn about it as it evolves.

I am thinking that there are going to be plenty of peeps, institutions and governments accumulating above $20k, too.... or at least that seems to be the current posture of where this whole matter is going and is likely to go.

No, 17% is more like "meh", I'll dca a bit but ain't gonna put my life savings in. Obviously should of done that when Bitcoin was sub at a >50% discount, but some people will never learn.


Yes! Always. Why does everyone want to get even richer even quicker? The longer we stay under $20K, the richer we get by investing more right? I literally would be happy if Bitcoin stayed under $20K for another decade, I kid you not, as long as it held above around $5-10K. The longer we stay low for, the longer the bull market will be.


Something healthy, from a 2x in the past 6 weeks, 25-35% would be perfect. Re-test that $12-14K range ideally, rule that out now as ever needing testing again.


I think it's strange that those who are convinced by a long-term strategy, that Bitcoin will rise in value by XXXX%, would want prices to continue going up in an unsustainable parabolic manner. I can only imagine that if you live of your BTC and don't work anymore, then great, up is your friend. But if you want to accumulate as much as possible before $20K is broken, then down is better. I only earn so much each week that I can average in, like most people, therefore time is the real enemy here - not price.

I'd prefer to be buying discounts, than looking at the premiums thinking it's a bit expensive. This also comes down to me not really being that motivated to buy more Bitcoin once it passes $20K, I'll leave this to the noobs, instead just sitting on what I have, trade some alts for satoshi gains in the meantime, ride it out to 6 figures. Chill.

Didn't we get a  pretty decent correction?

You are wishing for more correction, monineklutak?

How much of a correction do you need (want)?

I will note that it is a bit strange to be hoping for down rather than UP, but sure, perhaps 3.5 years (going by your forum registration, monineklutak) was not enough time for you to buy some bitcoin at lower prices.


If you do not have any BTC, it is better that you buy at whatever price, so long as you have a decently long investment timeline of 4 years or longer, and if you have even a longer investment timeline, then that would be even better.

If you are considering that we are currently in a top like late 2017 (time that you registered on the forum), then you likely do not understand bitcoin very well, and you likely need to study bitcoin more, even though there are surely no guarantees in bitcoin... so each person has to be comfortable with his/her investment approach... which surely might involved getting a position buy buying on dips, dca'ing etc.. and once you start to get more of a comfortable position, kesmex, including having some comfort with your investment timeline.. whether that is 4 years or 10 years or more, then after spending time in bitcoin and accumulating, it could well be you will both begin to understand bitcoin better and better understand your approach to ongoingly investing and honing your BTC investment and accumulation strategy, too.

This is very fair point, the longer Bitcoin exists for and continues to trend upwards, the longer investors should be willing to invest for. Sometimes I forget that in late 2013 and early 2014, investors would be betting on asset that's only existed for 4/5 years with only two notable cycles of bull market and subsequent correction. Now in 2020, Bitcoin is 10 years old, therefore it's a lot more realistic to think investors will be investing for 5 years minimum, maybe even 10 years, though based on cycles I'd assume 4/5 more so.

Also in the time when you got into Bitcoin, two bull market cycles isn't exactly a pattern, but more a statistical co-incidence. Now we are more clearly entering a third cycle, this is confirmation of a distinct pattern of Bitcoin's price history. At least from the statistical standpoint of two being co-incidence, three being minimum requirements for a pattern. With this in mind, maybe we won't see such panic selling if price breaks below $16-18K, as was largely the case with the -35% correction in January 2017 from ATH levels.

Either way, the economic factors at the moment could still play a major role: vaccine or no vaccine, US political uncertainty, an over-extended stock market...

Yes.. likely it is fair to elaborate on the point a bit, and your clarification does seem to largely capture what I was intending to communicate in terms of having a longer term investment plan that allows you to ride out various 4 year periods that might have large corrections contained therein.

You likely know my story of getting into bitcoin in late 2013 and starting my buying into bitcoin at that particular top... and I started with at least a 1-2 year investment thesis, and intention to learn about bitcoin while I was dollar cost averaging into it and of course considering that my investment thesis into bitcoin could have a much longer term. 

I think that these days the investment thesis into bitcoin is even stronger than it was in late 2013 - and therefore, it is much more reasonable to come into bitcoin with presumptions of a longer investment timeline of 4 years or more and even 10 years or more would be even better in terms of some people just not being able to lump sum into bitcoin or any other investment.  Many young people tend to take 20, 30, 40 or more years to build their investment portfolio in which they are able to plan to live off in their retirement.. and surely, some of those investment theses do not play out too well.  I feel real lucky with my own plans, but I had already around 25 years of building my investment portfolio before getting into bitcoin, so in that regard, I had already built up a lump sum that I could have put into bitcoin, and largely ended up putting into bitcoin in a dollar cost averaging way over the first year of my investment into BTC (which was mostly put in during the whole year of 2014).

So in reference to being down on my investment, I was largely down on my investment for about 2.5 years, until about mid 2016, and my various first purchases into bitcoin did not become profitable until about 3.25 years afterwards - but I had dollar cost averaged down the costs of that first purchase - so there can be various ways of calculating and considering whether profitable on paper (whether choosing to cash out or just continue to plan for cashing out at later dates - thus paper profits or paper losses).

You say this, but really I think you mean none of us care that much about buying tops. Mainly because we're not throwing all our money into a potential peak, but merely averaging more in right? Those who are currently buying parabolic prices aren't really doing so for the long-term, instead hoping price will continue upwards. If not, they will sell. They always do. This is exactly why we have 25-35% corrections in bull markets, because people buy the tops only to sell the bottoms - to enthusiasts like us.

Most investors stop caring about "what it could be worth in 4 years" once they are already down 25% on their investment.

To me, it's all about your current exposure and investment goals. I always like to say, if you don't own any BTC at all, now is a good time to buy. There should always be a greater sense of urgency for nocoiners.

But if you've already been accumulating for a while, if you're not too far from the number of BTC you eventually want, then you more so have the luxury of waiting for that brutal shakeout that might be around the corner.

Those people that have been through with that price won't have to worry. It's a piece of cake to see bitcoin from $19k drops to $16k. The earlier versions of the dump were much worrying than this.
While others are still looking for a chance to buy under $10k, investors who have seen an opportunity at the price of this recent dump are doing good.

When bitcoin dropped below $4000 and it recovers, that builds the confidence of the people to bitcoin already, so if it dump now, they will still expect it to rise, only the new ones who got FOMO will panic and I believe day by day people will mature and will eventually understand the nature of bitcoin market.

I'm not making fun, I'm merely reminding everyone that many missed the golden opportunity, and don't wait! Below $10,000 might never ever return, BUT buy below 2017's ATH while it's there.

Yes. This correction is stronger honestly and it's not that showing any negative signs that it is going to go further and have more dips soon. This time it's a correction.
Before, when there's a correction the community looks sad and a bit of disappointed. Not those who have been in the community and investing for a very long time but mostly the newbies and mid time holders. But as you see, everyone likes it as it corrects.

sometimes we never know where the dip is, which is why studying patterns and cycles is necessary to see past history.  when you want to buy at the dip price, we can see that the whales are trying to accumulate which can be read on the chart. Usually with MACD indicators, Bollinger Bands, RSI and ADX.
And please note that Consolidation can occur for a long time, in the form of a sideways movement, or in a relatively short time, namely in the form of an inside bar. At least  By looking at the trend in the direction of sentiment that can be monitored from technical indicators we can deciding to buy it.

You seem to be taking my comment the wrong way.  I'm only agreeing with the OP.  Maybe not buy each dip but to constantly cost average.  It protects you from price spikes and drops.  It allows you to "buy the middle".  Nothing wrong with that, and it gets you in the mind set to always be buying stackimg sats even if it's one by one.  Most people trying buying all then selling all pretending to be good traders but only end up trading their stack away.  I encourage cost average buying, and if you are going to sell.  Sell in increments not all at once.

As expected we need a correction sooner or later soon.At last observing a dump yet institutions are here now and are very strong hands. In this way, love it and continue purchasing the entire day. Bullish uptrend is still valid until $15.8k is lost. Right now we just swept the lows. Strong support is a few stacks down, it's only a matter of time. Don't get too hyped as bull trend is still strong.

I would consider the dip up to $30% from $19,5k as the peak, which means around $13,6k as the bottom line if this sell-off trend continues.
However, we don't know how big the drop will be, how if bitcoin hold the support level at $16,3k and won't fall below it? with this thought, I don't want to sell bitcoin or buy it too early, just wait for it to actually drop to $13k or $12k, then buy the dip.

I don't mind lower prices for that reason, its also how we move over a wider amount of time.   Just selling today only would be pretty bullish, its the markets reaction to this initial sell that matters more then this action currently.    We most definitely had a good strong bullish trend up there, that specific channel up has likely been negated now but doesn't mean there isnt a chance price action develops and consolidates into further bullish action.    I need time really to consider, I'm not going to stand in the way currently; more like watching it progress over this and next week but so far its not a big deal.  I always cycle through the time frames because it helps put focused market moves into a wider context and we are only taking back some of the vast gains that occurred recently.
  The market always wants to shake out weak hands, we traded upwards too fast at the end and that was at least 1 count to weaken its longevity and might also be this weaker main market volume over national holidays was another factor.    I still reckon 2021 is a bigger move then this year, if that is still to be the case then its better we pull back rather then over extend.

Your point, here, is a bit ambiguous, Wind_FURY.  Are you making fun of the fence-sitters? 

I surely like to make fun of the fence sitters.. its a kind of internally deranged joy that I get, from time to time.

I wouldn't bet on that as well, BUT if some of our fellow plebs didn't buy/get in, then they should be PRAYING for another golden opportunity of seeing $10,000 or below again. As a Christmas gift?

Historically, we have seen this many many many times in bitcoin price dynamics and even during bull markets in which we might have almost no correction for very extended periods, and normies start to believe (or wrongly conjecture) that the BTC price is ONLY inclined for UPpity.. and then at some point BBBBBAAAAAMMMMM!!!!!

- a 30%, 40% or more correction.... Such correction does not necessarily remove us from the bullmarket or the bull trend, but it sure the fuck shakes out some weak hands.. and it also causes a change in momentum that bearwhales (or just BIG traders) are going to take advantage of such situation to push the BTC price down as far as they can and to keep it down as long as they can...  the amount that they can push it down and the duration of how long they can keep it down is going to vary each time and is quite likely unknowable with any kind of meaningful precision in advance - even though the better traders will be able to get some kind of meaningful gauge of it and be able to profit from it without knowing for sure but attempting to be cautious regarding how they trade it... and maybe even take their profits way before the bottom is reached.. but locks in the profits.

Normies may well not be able to have any kind of clue about how to carry out these kinds of trading matters, so we either buy the dip if we have money or we HODL if we have no money to buy... we do not sell and attempt to figure out the momentum because we are more likely to screw ourselves into having fewer BTC than we started with.. because it can be quite difficult to profit from such situation beyond just buying the dip and HODL.. or DCA at certain points, too.


You are preaching to the choir.  If you did not have any BTC when the price was $19,490, you better start fucking buying or figure out some reasonable way to get some stake into BTC rather than waiting around for a dip that might not happen.  Just because this particular dip ended up happening, does not mean that the dip was inevitable at that particular price point.. blah blah blah.. even though many of us, including yours truly, had pretty decent ideas that a dip was imminent... but we have been thinking that since about $13,880, too... So there is that angle that we cannot really know, and quite a few folks who might well be quite pissed off because they found out about BTC a few months ago (let's say sometime in September) when the BTC price was rising from $10k to $12k but they were waiting for a dip, and the dip did not happen.. so they end up feeling like they are fucked.. yet, they can still figure out plans to DCA, buy on dips and HODL in order to get their stake in bitcoin without trying to time the market with any kind of precision.. but instead to get started rather than waiting around or theorizing too much about how much of a dip that they feel they need before they "go all in" blah blah blah.   



I mostly agree with you on these points, exstasie.