Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 583. (Read 133637 times)

I think that part of my ongoing point has been to attempt to talk about ways that normal people can get involved in bitcoin in ways that are tailored to their own personal situations, and one of the obstacles remains that a vast majority of folks fail/refuse to get involved in any kind of investment beyond investing in either some kind of personal residential property and/or a 401k - if they have that kind of an option through their work - and even many jobs do not even have such options - because getting into a stable job is also not really something that can be expected.

So in order to attempt to appeal to the "everyman,"  I am very much into figuring out ways that people can just get off of zero in terms of the amounts that they have invested into bitcoin, and surely just getting off of zero is a good start,, and thereafter to get some kind of an approach to bitcoin that allows them to get something like 1% to 25% of their investment portfolio into bitcoin.

Now, once they establish their bitcoin base, then they can maybe get more fancy... but I still think that getting their shit together with the base remains the first step.. and then can figure out some of the details of how they might want to be more fancy, later.  

The base case is dollar cost averaging (buying on dips is acceptable for sure), but in my thinking buying on dips goes beyond the base case and is more sophisticated and complicated.  Yeah, sure some people are ready, willing and able to employ a more sophisticated strategy, but I still think that it is way better to appeal to the base case and to make sure that people have their basics in a good place before expecting them to do something more complicated and requiring more study into the matter (ie having to attempt to figure out whether we are in a dip or not.. nearly impossible to do for any newbie, and not even easy for many of us who have been in the space for a long time).



Nothing wrong with getting even more sophisticated in your approach or even adding trading and various financial instruments - whether they involve shitcoins or not.  I have never taken the position that you cannot make money on shitcoins or getting involved in various shitcoin systems, but in my thinking you still need to make sure that you are not getting too distracted with how you spend your time and your money.... the younger you are or maybe the more that you are interested in dabbling into various kinds of smoke and mirror topics, the more that you might be able to risk some of your bitcoin investment into various shitcoin projects - but I would also be careful of trying to consider them as anything even close to bitcoin - even if there might be a variety of ways to potentially increase your value by gambling and putting money into those various products. Seems to also go beyond the topic of this thread, for sure.

As a financial hedge, I still believe it's better to wait for the DIP, but as a hedge against a non-elected cabal who might/are making mistakes concerning the monetary system, I agree, don't delay and HODL some now.

I'm currently taking a free course on basic options trading, and while researching about options exchanges, I discovered a decentralized options exchange built on Ethereum. I'm starting to believe that some altcoins might not be actual "shitcoins", and they might actually be useful specifically for wealth-building.

I will agree with you about the part that it is really NOT easy to attempt to show someone that bitcoin is likely one of the most asymmetrical bet to the UPside that anyone can make while at the same time asserting that the person (audience) has to take complete responsibility for their own investment decisions. 

Sometimes, I am not sure if I am the one who has been dissuading my acquaintances in real life to invest in bitcoin because so few actually choose to either invest into bitcoin or even to investigate afterwards.  Actually when years go by, I can tell that my message had sunk in because frequently I am credited with "I should have listened to you, and invested into bitcoin when you told me x years earlier." 

So, then the assumption in the then current conversation becomes that bitcoin has already pumped up so much that it no longer makes sense to invest into bitcoin, and almost always, I say get started right away.. don't delay.. if you do not have any bitcoin, then figure out your finances and start buying BTC regularly.. even if it is ONLY a small amount, and do not get distracted with shitcoins.  Almost no one listens.  And, what can I do?  in some sense the audience (no coiner) needs to be ready, and I am not going to pressure the audience or attempt to twist their arm.

Although deep inside of me doesn't believe, or doesn't want me to believe, that there are no guarantees, I believe saying that there actually are NO guarantees is the right thing to do. Especially the newbies. 2019 was a very different experience, I was very enthusiastic in telling everyone "BUY NOW", but I had much to learn, and still have much to learn.

Of course, one of the presumptions that any of us make with either buying BTC on dips, or buying BTC on a regular basis no matter the cost (that is DCA) or even HODL strategies is that there is a bit of a presumption that in the long term, such as 4-10 years bitcoin prices are going to be higher than they are today or at least if you were to keep buying on a regular basis that the price of bitcoin is going to end up being higher than your costs.

There are no guarantees that the BTC price is going to go up in the long term, so in some sense if you are investing into BTC for the long term such as 4-10 years or longer, you should have some level of conviction or confidence in bitcoin as an asset.. and of course, no investments are guaranteed. 

If you do not have any kind of long term conviction about Bitcoin having decent chances of going up in price in the long term, then probably you should not be investing into bTC and perhaps you should find a better investment (or at least one that you are more comfortable and confident).

I would want to be more someone like you, than someone like sgbett or proudhon, who I believe were the aggressive buyers of Bitcoin but might have sold them for a mere 10x of their original investment. Currently, they want Bitcoin's surge to happen to BCash SV.

people always advice other to buy bitcoin during bear time, i want to ask if bear market don't have volume where by you can buy during the bear time when the bitcoin is in stage of 20k and after some time the market kept going down to 13k till one year decrement, so what is going to be the benefit of buying during the continuous falling time of bitcoin and bitcoin refused to rise

It's a bit difficult to speculate various situations of people, because sometimes young people are in real early stages of just figuring out how to manage whatever income they have, and if they go to college, they have the challenges of figuring out how much money they might have in those circumstances, when maybe they are also trying to get good grades to get placed in a decently paying job....

I sometimes feel as if I sometimes presume the situations of others because one of my advantages in coming to bitcoin was that I had already established a decent investment portfolio, so it was just a matter of reallocating for me, so between about 2014 and 2020, I had always suggested that people should consider a 1% to 10% allocation of their investment portfolio to bitcoin, so with that framework, anything between 5% and 10% would have been reasonably aggressive, and anything above 10% would potentially be overly aggressive.. .but at least the person getting into bitcoin under those circumstances should NOT be going in blindly or at a kind of beginner level.,. but with some study of the subject.

In about the past 6 months, I have adjusted my beginner investment into bitcoin framework up to 1% to 25%, so there are surely new ways to consider what is aggressive within that framework (still above 5% into bitcoin might be considered sufficiently aggressive).  

Another thing is that if you got into bitcoin in the past 6-9 years, you may well could have gotten away with just regular aggressiveness on the lower end of the scale and still reached some kind of wealth appreciation that put you into a very solid place.  Yet, the way to hang onto such value.. let's say a modest investment that might have gotten 20 to 50 BTC, that might have ONLY had taken $5k to $25k of capital to acquire that quantity of BTC (which is suggesting some luck in having had been able to acquire BTC between about $250 and $500 per BTC), but then the question thereafter would have been being able to hang onto such BTC for several years and through the price run up of 2017 and the so far price run up of early 2021... so if the investment into BTC had been more aggressive, such as doubling the investment amount to $10k to $50k, then the BTC stash could have been double to 40 to 100 BTC, and therefore could have allowed for more wiggle room to HOLD onto a certain core level of those BTC.. so in that regard, there can be some longer term pay-off in having had "overinvested" into BTC, but at the same time, the that overinvestment into BTC still would not be enough if the person did not have the foresight and ability to hang onto a core amount of the BTC.. so for example, investing to buy 40 to 100 BTC, but not letting the core level go below 20 to 50 BTC.. something like that.

@JJG +1

We all wished we would have been more aggressive but with what we knew at the time we were risking it all for magic internet moneyz that many deemed a tulip crisis

Even those of us who have been following bitcoin for years have troubles identifying bear markets with very strong levels of confidence, and also part of the reasons that traders (who are supposedly experts in price/market watching) have high levels of failures in regards to not being able to figure out with any kind of high level of confidence whether we are in a bear or bull market.

So if neither the experts nor the peeps watching bitcoin for years can get it right, then it surely is not fair to expect newbies to bitcoin to get it right or to create systems in which they are even attempting to get it right... which brings us back to DCA, as amongst the most basic of systems to at least to have some level of adequate/sufficient preparation for UP when/if such UP happens.

Lots of peeps try to write off or denigrate DCA as being brainless and failing/refusing to maximize the buying of dips; however, one of the problems with that kind of an assessment of DCA is that it can still take a whole hell of a lot of time to really attempt to be precise (or even to maximize) your DCA strategy in terms of figuring out your own budget... and not to overdo it, too.  So many people (both young and old - even though the old do tend to learn some of these matters through some of the pains of experience) have difficulties establishing various kinds of emergency funds in order that they can have some kind of a floating balance of funds that are available in the short term and they have created optionality regarding from which funds they are going to draw upon in the event of tight cashflows (unexpected expenses or lessening of income).

Even having a lot of experiences with managing your own finances can still put a lot of normies (and I am not completely exempted from this either) from wrongly calculating some of the management of short to medium term cashflows which causes some needs to draw from areas/funds that were not meant to be touched (especially something like bitcoin should be part of the NOT touched funds that are ONLY drawn upon completely based on 100% choice rather than being forced into NOT having enough liquid reserves in various funds to cover expenses). 

Let's say that someone is just coming to bitcoin and they have a lot of fucked up circumstances in their own prior financial management including a lot of debt (something like $10k) that needs to be paid off and not very reliable levels of cashflow - including failures/refusals to invest or to create reserve cash balances (such as an emergency fund).  So, in some sense they do not have much if any investments, and they might have a bunch of consumer items that they own that have depreciated in value and might even be pretty costly to maintain (a car can be one of them), so if after calculating all of their cashflow and expenses, they have determined that they have about $100 per week extra that they could start to put towards attempting to resolve their various cashflow/savings/investment issues.. so maybe the next 2-4 years, they need to spend time getting their shit in order. and instead of investing $100 per week into bitcoin, they make some choices to invest $10-$25 per week into bitcoin and use the  other $75-$90 per week to make progress towards paying down debt and building a cash reserves.  Yes, it could take time to make progress, but sometimes there are needs to look out past the short term and to figure out how to make progress towards fulfilling goals to be able to have made more options for oneself by getting their finances in better order.. while at the same time, bitcoin should likely be part of the package - even if the amount that can be dedicated towards investing in BTC cannot be as large because from my perspective it is way more important to get your financial matters in order so that your BTC investment and other aspects of your life are less reliant upon gambling rather that creating purposeful systems that build an investment portfolio which will also creates more options with the passage of time.


I don't have a problem with anything that you said Wilhelm - even though so many of us can look back and hypothesize that we "could have been more aggressive with our BTC investment."....

Another sense of the whole situation is that we ONLY know what we know, and every moment we are making tradeoffs regarding how well we should live now versus how much payoff (delayed gratification) we might get by attempting to have a somewhat aggressive BTC investment strategy.  It's never going to be certain regarding whether some levels of self-sacrifice in the present might pay off greater in the future, versus some of the value that comes from buying goods and services (and experiences) in the present.

We can look at our current situation, and try to assess whether we are currently being sufficiently aggressive, and at the same time, we also have to be careful about being overly aggressive.  I understand that you likely look back at the past 8-9 years, and you can recognize some of the dumb ways in which you spent your money, so in that regard, as you already seemed to have mentioned, you are judging your prior behaviors in light of what you have later found out - which is that bitcoin has been way more bullish than expected.. and the downsides did not play out in bitcoin as much as they were feared.... so yeah, we are never really removed from those kinds of calculations in the present - and surely those of us who have already established a decent BTC stash (likely including both you and me - even though maybe to differing levels) are way better off because of the passage of time and that we had chosen to continue to HODL some proportions of our BTC stash - rather than cashing out too much too soon.  So, we can see that some of our peers had chosen to cash out too much too soon.. or even to fail/refuse to continue to invest into bitcoin because they had bought at $60, $600, $6k and even $30k.. so they start to feel uncomfortable buying at higher price be bitcoin has likely already become disproportionate proportions of their overall investment portfolio allocation.. so at some point, it does not seem to make as much sense to continue to buy bitcoin when bitcoin represents the overwhelming majority of your wealth.

Hindsight is 20/20 so I don't find it that laughable but it is a missed opportunity.

I mined my first coin when it was 'expensive' at approx. $60 a coin.
Felt crazy later on, for buying at $300 an $600
Left and right hacks/bans/uncertanty... not ideal investing

I've now learned to do the opposite of the market. Buy when shit hits the fan and HODL through the storms....

If I would have known the current price I would have bought way more and be living on a bigass yacht in the Maledives or Sechelles .....
but no I was too much of a little bitch to invest big money. So now I still have enough but need to wait a bit longer....


What I noticed with many people is the following flawed mindset
 - I'm gonna buy when the price drops
 - The price is dropping too fast I'm not going to invest in something that just dropped 40% in a week
.... they missed the train again on 40-60% rise ....
 

It's really very laughable because my friend was one of the people who was telling them, almost begging, and definitely being very annoying, to buy Bitcoin during the bear market. It would have been a golden opportunity for them. But what did they do? Because maybe some plebs are smarter than other plebs.

+1
It's usually a lot of money and you don't want to attract attention.
MO coinz MO problemz....

About "HODLing", a friend told me that it might be better that you should never tell ANYONE, including you very close/trusted friends and family, how much you have invested in Bitcoin, or how much you are passively making. Sometimes you might feel jealousy if Bitcoin is surging, and during other times, you might feel that they are happy if it's crashing.

With "Missed opportunities" I was referring to selling high and buying back low. Tried it but you can make and lose a lot. And when the trading platform gets hacked you lose everything.

HODL is sub optimal but safe and easy.

Shitcoins are a whole different ballgame. But that said my ETH has made more percentage than BTC. But BTC will always remain my main HODL.

"Missed opportunities" with shitcoins are merely missed opportunities for short term/medium term trades which doesn't give the "trader" any assurances for profit. Plus many of the shitcoins, almost 100%, are not developing their protocols for the Science. They're merely swindles to take your Bitcoin from you.

I realized this in 2014 and even though you see all the missed opportunities you see your pocket money turn into real big monies 

HODL is covering time into money

After the experiences that I have learned from the market since 2018, I realized that “buy the dip and hodl” is the biggest, simplest lesson to make money and become rich.  This is also the vision that Saylor or Co-Founder Luna sees.  I realize staking for something big in bitcoin in 3-5 years is great
You can learn many things, trade, trade, invest... but in the end you will realize what is important.

Do you know how China, or any Central Bank, could possbily do this through a few commands in a computer? If a CBDC system is widely implemented. They will not do it during the beginning, but the trolls in government will slowly remove your freedom to transact until you have none. With that thought, just buy the DIP, DCA, do JJG, do philipma1957, just HODL Bitcoin.

Also, if some of you are still in an accumulation stage regarding your bitcoin and you are not either over-allocated or close to fuck you status, then our last three months of BTC prices (and fears around prices) should have provided evidence that it is a good practice to continue DCA'ing during these kinds of uncertain times, including NOT knowing when/where the BTC price bottom might be.

In other words, consider the past 2-3 months (actually we might even track back to the beginning of the year where we started out at $48k) including BTC prices bottoming out at $32,951 on January 24, during that period there were a lot of opportunities to continue to buy BTC .... and instead of buying, some folks were continuing to wait for low $30k prices or even dips into the $20k, lower $20k and even sub $20k, and at this point, it is starting to become more clear that the $32,951 bottom of January 24 is likely in.. for this correction. 

Sure, we continue to have uncertain times, including uncertain macro-circumstances, but it is starting to seem as if it is more likely than not that $32,951 has been our bottom for this correction.... and good to any guys/gals who had been continuing to buy in the past 3 months-ish.. because currently (as prices are seeming to continue to push up upon $48k), any of those acquired coins will now be in profits.. and also if your investment timeline is 4-10 years or longer, you may not care a whole hell of a lot whether your coins are currently in profits, but still you have been able to continue to accumulate coins during these past three months of uncertain times (and for sure I am not asserting that our uncertain times are over, but BTC prices pushing up does tend to continue to lend credence to bitcoin's continued solid long-term investment thesis).