Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 578. (Read 122516 times)

Because we plebs are thinking in the short term. Buying the dip also requires HODLing, dollar-cost-averaging, AND a very low time preference.

Plus would it truly matter if you bought Bitcoin at $3,000, $5,000, or $10,000 when it's done with its path to a 6-digit price discovery?

It seems to me that throughout this thread, several of us have been attempting to answer that question by suggesting a combination of personal BTC buying strategies to attempt to deal with the issue of how much of a BTC price dip is enough to buy, and personally I doubt that there are very many normies who can actually identify when a dip is over or how much of a dip to wait for in each correction period.

Many of us have suggested both identifying your own budget and buying regularly (such as DCAing) as a supplement to buying on dip.  Several of us have also suggested to NOT get too worked up regarding if you get the bottom of the dip, but just to buy regularly and to buy at various points within the dip, even if you may well not end up coming even close to maximizing how much BTC that you get, but if you are in a BTC accumulation stage of your investment (that you have personally established BTC accumulation goals for yourself, in terms of how much you want to accumulate), then with the passage of time, you will likely come out ahead with the value of your BTC even if you might run out of money from time to time because the BTC dip goes lower than you expected and lasts longer than you expected. 

Of course, there are no guarantees, but we have seen that BTC does still seem to be quite a great asymmetric bet to the upside, so in that regard, accumulating BTC is likely be a great practice as long as you have a long enough investment time horizon... such as having a time horizon that is 4 years or longer from any time that you purchase additional BTC.

In other words, I doubt that many of us here are expecting to be able to time anything close to any exact BTC price bottom, and many of us appreciate that the better longer term strategies continue to involve just buying BTC regularly, and doing your best in terms ballpark guessing in terms of buying the dip without necessarily getting obsessed with whether you had correctly gotten (or guessed) the exact bottom of any dip... it is not necessary to buy on any extremes of dips in order to become greatly profitable and successful with your BTC investment so long as you have a decently long and ongoing investment horizon.  At the same time, of course, there are going to be some personal variability in terms of circumstances, too, that can attempted to be accounted for and adapted to figure out if the accumulation of BTC would be a good plan and practice within your own personal situation.

Same problem mate. I already knew the idea of buying in dip however, I can't decide when to do it because I have some thought that what if it goes down a bit more that would really make me regret my decision. I am no expert in this field that is why sometimes I doubt my analysis. But I do always monitor how the market chart behave and fortunately, I am making a good job I think.

Dump your DeFi shitcoin, convert back to Bitcoin, and HODL. Don't let those scammers/frauds/snake-oil salesmen take the only thing they want from you. Your Bitcoins.

I consider that "better off" in terms of buying on dips and DCA buying is a matter of psychological and financial rather than mere financial.... so sure, you can always go back and second guess yourself in terms of BTC price movements that you could have or should have seen.. or maybe times in which you bought too much too soon, and you should have waited for more dip.

I don't know what you are talking about regarding $10k.

Sure, currently, it seems as if $10k is a decent bottom, but we also thought the same thing in November 2018 and even at some later times regarding $6k being the bottom... It was the bottom, until it was not.

I never proclaim to know exactly good buying points in terms of them being universally good, even if there may well be a good probability that a price, such as $10k is good at this particular moment (until it is not... )


One good thing about exstasie seems to be that he is more than willing to share various aspects regarding his attempted analysis, and he has a decent tendency to flesh it out.

I doubt that it is fair to put him exactly in a category regarding that he is more willing to buy on the way up, because he surely seems ready and willing to attempt to time waves, and surely way the hell more willing to make bets in that regard than I am.



Your use of the term bearish seems different than mine, even though I will concede that we seem to be in a correction that is within a largely bull market and a largely bull asset.  I have asserted that our bull market had gotten tentatively confirmed as of about May 2019, and we have not bounced out of such bull market, even though we have had quite a few decently long and decently deep corrections subsequent to such confirmed bull market.

But hey, whatever, I might be quibbling over semantics more than anything, even though I am surely not going to take for granted that we are necessarily anywhere near finishing our current correction - even though as we continue to go back and forth in terms of attempting to figure out where the BTC price might go in the short term, the longer term bottom of the 200 week moving average continues to move up, and currently that bottom has just passed above $6,600, so surely any of us longer term investors should be feeling good about the ongoing movement up of the 200 WMA... and some confidence in continuing to accumulate BTC and buying on dips, as that bottom keeps moving up (and of course hoping that it continues to move up in the future, too). .. and even more comfortable, if our average cost per BTC happens to be less than the 200WMA price.

Also, currently the Mayer multiple is at 1.15 as I type, and the average is 1.36, so it is slightly below average, which also could be a signal to buy or that the BTC price has decent chances of moving up.

https://mayermultiple.info/

I don't know if I'm better off, but as a personal preference, and for my personal comfort, I tried to buy all the Dipcoins below $10,000.


I believe extasie and traders with his style, like to buy during a bull market. I buy when everyone is bearish, and what is Bitcoin-bearish? Dipcoins under $10,000, the lower the better.

Of course, there are potential trade offs to DCA and buying every dip, including not really knowing whether the dip is BIG enough.  I am suggesting (I think that you Wind_FURY are saying the same thing) that BTC accumulators will be much better off, just buying on a regular basis, DCAing and attempting to be reasonable in terms of their attempts to buy on the dips, so maybe at best employing these kinds of buying on dips practices might get BTC accumulators 5% or 10% more bitcoin, perhaps, perhaps?

Posters like exstasie seem to be suggesting that attempting to time the market and really holding back on regular DCA'ing and perhaps saving up all that money to buy on the BIGGER dips, then those guys are going to be able to perform even better than the regular DCA'ers and the folks who are buying on every single dip....

I am thinking  that probably in the end, those guys who are trying to  time the market in order to BUY BIG on  BIG dips are largely NOT outperforming the regular DCA'ers and the ones who are just buying on  even small dips.

Sure, scenarios can be painted in to show me that there are situations where guys could have waited until BTC prices got down into the $3ks or even sub $6ks in 2018, 2019 and 2020 rather than buying so many coins in the supra $7ks, supra $10ks and even the supra $14ks, and I am thinking that it is a BIG SO WHAT because the regular buyer is going to get those low prices (sure maybe run out of money at points when the prices are in the sub $6ks), but he will still end up accumulating way more BTC and becoming more profitable than the one who tries to time the maximum bottom points.

So, of course, guys like exstasie are going to be able to point out examples of BTC accumulators who were able to accumulate more BTC at lower BTC prices because they waited, and I am going to suggest too, that especially in BTClandia, there are a large number of instances where those same kinds of waiting for the price guys are going to wait themselves into having to buy higher and so in the end there are a large number of them who end up doing considerably worse than the more committed DCAer and the more committed buying on dips (even small dips) kinds of investors - especially when it comes to bitcoin.

Now, if we are looking at some other kind of investment, then of course, the results will likely end up being different, but we are talking about BTC here, so seems to me that preparing for up is rarely a BAD thing - except for those folks who sometimes may end up overinvesting - but that is a bit of a different kind of issue in terms of NOT investing more than you can afford to lose... which some people do end up getting too much into any investment in terms of NOT having their cashflow sufficiently managed, so with any long term investment it is good to have your cashflow in order and to be investing into the longer term investment in such a way that you are neither thinking about the investment nor tempted to withdraw from it on a regular basis... and so if you are investing for at least 4-year timeline but even better a 10 year or longer time line, then you should not be tempted to be cashing out any of your BTC stash during that time, just adding to it on a regular basis... and then realize where you are at in terms of withdrawal considerations 4 years (or better yet 10 years or more) down the road.

For a me as a pleb-newbie, compared to other newbies who like to day-trade, maybe.


What does it matter if Bitcoin is on its price-discovery to 6 digits? If they want a definite reply, then buy any dip under $10,000.

Yep... and I bet you do much better than the vast majority of folks who attempting to be more strategic about how much is enough of a dip, but an ongoing plan of buying regularly and taking advantage of some degree of dip (even though we can never really know how far the dip is going to go and how long the dip is going to last). 

Part of my reason for making my above post, is that frequently peeps ask "how much of a dip is enough?"  Usually the answer in bitcoin would be that any dip should be better than no dip, when it comes to buying, and in the long term, much of this is going to just iron itself out, and if you end up acquiring 10 BTC over the next 10 years, maybe you end up acquiring .5BTC extra merely because you were buying on dips rather than NOT paying attention.  perhaps?  Hard to know, for sure... but you can know if you are regularly buying BTC and overall your BTC stash is growing rather than either staying the same or shrinking... and you can measure and monitor such growth with the passage of time, too.

I remember from late 2013 to late 2016 while i was building my BTC portfolio.  I had some target BTC sizes that I wanted to reach, and as I kept accumulating BTC, I continued to move my target up higher.  After a while, I got to a certain point that I was NO longer feeling as much urgency about how much BTC that I accumulated.  Sure, not going to complain about accumulating a bit more BTC here and there, but at some point, if we keep accumulating, we hope to reach a point where we can run the numbers and recognize that if the hypothetical bullish BTC UP scenario plays out anywhere close to approximations, we have enough BTC to profit quite well from such a scenario.

Even if we might already consider that we have already profited considerably from such a scenario already having had played out.. even if we can end up experiencing another stage of upwards BTC price movements, which is largely icing on the cake of an already better than expected scenario already having had played out... and no real likelihood seems to be in play that average or better than average scenarios will not continue to play out.. with the chance of even exceptional scenarios similar to the past.  No guarantees with any of this, of course, but you cannot win it if you are not in it... hahahahaahaha.

Ahahaha! This is so me. People think I am rich for having bitcoin but they didn't know how small I currently have. Well the good part is that it keeps on increasing through buying the dips. I remember having my first satoshi from faucets back in 2016. Too bad I did not bought a bunch of BTCs back then.

That's why I always recommend newbies to use dollar-cost-averaging. Buy some Dipcoins now, buy more later during more dips. Although, I'm not a trader, and it's not a strategy for "traders. I'm just a pleb-saver.

What they say: "Buy the f*cking dip"

What they actually do: "Sell the f*cking dip"

("They" refers to people who only reads but never trades)

I just made a post that is somewhat related to buying the dip considerations, and suggesting that buying on a 10% dip is good, and buying on 18% dip is even better... don't get too greedy.. because hey you never know if the dip is done, or not.

Learning to day-trade, or some kind of pro-active trading style is OK, but as a non-professional trader, don't put yourself under the illusion that will beat the top 10% of traders who do this professionally for a living.



We are plebs, accept that we are plebs, and we buy to HODL. There will only be 21,000,000 Bitcoins.

You could paper trade and put enough into that the capital is not required to be involved and learn something, not everyone can do that maybe barely even a few but its possible to learn enough just by close observation.   Probably more the case with people who like to win games or can hold something more then just money as a win.

Price at present is dipping below 10500 which is something of an important area to watch.  It is below that price but I wonder how this area registers on the various bars into a weekly closing price which would make it more significant and seem to signal we are due to continue or confirm lower prices in a larger pullback then just profit taking that had been the case in a higher range previously.

I believe not. Proper trading, requires proper capital management. What would you learn? It's not easy to "manage" $50 - $100 if each of your trades are more than 20% of your capital. Any smaller, the fees would eat you.

I still think that you and I, pooya87, were talking past each other, and seems to me that your summary of my points do not capture what I was saying as well as my original posts...   Firstly, BIG blocker dweebs were using technical obfuscation to exaggerate their issue and to attempt to appeal to the masses to attempt to get changes in Bitcoin governance to attempt to cause bitcoin to be easier to change.. a kind of corporate takeover.  Second, Garzick was largely an incompetent dweeb who tried to control more software upgrade than he should have been with the segwit2x fork, and he fucked it up - whether on purpose or lack of peer review, whatever, the fucktwat was attempting to bypass meaningful consensus that had been working decently well in bitcoin in order to allow participation and allow merit to prosper, and instead Garzick got overly involved in trying to bypass that and to create some bullshit imitation product, that luckily failed... along with his dweeb reputation (that he still is out their pumping nonsense from time to time) .



Frequently, failures in strategies arise from attempts to get greedy and assigning the wrong probabilities to BTC price direction movements.

There are ways to structure trades in order that they are neither greedy and tend mostly towards profits by largely emphasizing stacking sats and dollar cost averaging.

In other words, like you suggest bitbunny, it tends to take a decently long ass time to get rich, but surely bitcoin allows for that so long as you are mostly betting on upwards and preparing for upwards and not selling too much BTC, mostly buying btc, whether on dips or on regular basis in a kind of dca way.  Of course, if the BTC price goes shooting down, and you run out of money to buy, then you just hodl until you get more money, and if you miss the dip, so what?  Just don't sell, wait and if you have more money to buy, later on down the road, even if the BTC price might be higher, then you might do it like that or just hold some of that extra fiat and wait for the next dip, that might or might not happen.


Exactly.  Many people should not be trading at all.. just building up their BTC holdings by continuing to buy BTC and stacking that BTC aside.

I don't necessarily recommend playing around with demo versions (but I get your point, Arkann), but I do recommend trading with very small amounts of BTC when first getting started and first learning about bitcoin trading.  Even as you get more experienced with trading BTC, it is likely best to keep those trades to very small percentages of your total BTC holdings.  As you get better and more accustomed to how it works, then you can increase the amount of your capital that you are trading BTC with. 

Maybe starting out with $50 or $100 as you mentioned could work in terms of limiting your trading stash or maybe less than .5% of the total value of your BTC holdings.  Let's say if you hold 1 BTC, then .5% would be .005 BTC - which would be almost $59.. but if you have to have both dollars and BTC, then that is only $29.5 in dollars and .0025BTC as your trading stash... Of course, the more BTC that you have accumulated, the more that you can have a higher budget for trading, and of course if you have accumulated 2 BTC into your BTC stash, then your trading stash of BTC will have doubled, which would be $59 and .005BTC.  Does not seem like a lot, but that would be how I would be recommending to get started by using real money and figuring out ways to stretch your budget, and some platforms do not even allow a trade that is less than $5 in value, so maybe you have to increase your stack of BTC before you are even eligible to trade (in terms of practicality). 

It tends to take a damned long time to build wealth, and if you believe that you are going to be able to shortcut the wealth building process by trading, then you better practice first to be able to figure out if your system of trading actually works to increase your trading stash or if you are largely just continuing to want to dig into your stored away stash because you keep losing.... and you need to account for trading fees too, and actually going through the motions of actual trades will allow you to account for all of those factors.

Maybe at some point you will start to feel comfortable to increase the amount or the percentage of your BTC trading stash, and maybe at the most establish a budget of 10% of your BTC holdings as your trading portfolio.. but even when you establish higher percentages of your BTC value to trading, that does not justify all or nothing kinds of betting of that trading stash because you will soon find yourself out of a BTC trading stash... but maybe that could be a way to learn that you do not know how to trade... so you give up on your desires to trade BTC by losing your whole BTC trading stash, rather than continuing to add to your BTC trading stash and depleting the value of your BTC stash.

I have witnessed that a lot of traders are greedy and they want to trade higher and higher amounts, rather than really making sure that they are really profitable.. and like I already mentioned, there are ways to make sure that you are profitable by the way that you set up the trades... and only sell at a profit.

In order to receive a large enough income from cryptocurrency trading, of course, you need to have a large enough start-up capital. But in order to learn how to trade and gain some experience, even 50 or 100 dollars is enough. Although it is not so easy to learn how to do technical analysis and every beginner has to go through a lot of mistakes. It seems to me that one of the best training options is to use the demo version for trading.

No one hasn't said it was easy. You need to be prepared for trading an not only with skill, knowledge and experience but you also need to have enough funds to buy when it's favourable price. And you will not see results at once, it takes some time and most of your investment will be returned on long term. And not all of us have enough patience for that

But not everyone can be part of the elite-whalecumulator-club. 90% of active pleb-day-traders consistently LOSE money. Fact.


Buy the dip, and HODL is us pleb's way. It's not exciting, but it will be when Bitcoin starts surging to 6 digits.

The red parts in the chart are the only times when someone lost buying Bitcoin,