Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 580. (Read 123109 times)

Yes we always have fear upon buying since imagine if we fall on bad entry for sure we will bag hold the coin for possible long term period and that would be a total mess for us especially if we have only small amount intended to use for tradings. That's why sometimes I always amaze to those people who knows how to trade with huge budget attached on their wallets since they can do the cut loss and buyback to gain and this method is so effective way to earn and to gain back the losses we might have for the day we trade.

Does not seem to me that anyone here is suggesting to sell at this point (well, you are).

The only question seems to be whether to buy now, or to wait for the possibility that BTC prices might dip lower or do both.

Of course, you could buy a little now, and if BTC price were too drop lower, then buy some more.

If anyone was going to sell any BTC they should have done so on the way up to $11k (3-7 days ago).. and surely, personally, I never suggest selling much BTC (unless you are well in profits and have largely reached accumulation goals); however, if you were going to sell some small portion, you should have already done so rather than doing it now.... selling on the way down is bad practice and bad form... and increases the chances to cause those engaging in such selling on the way down to end up getting caught on the wrong end of a trade.

Bitcoin is currently in a short-term investment, which has occurred several times the increase and decrease in a very fast tempo and it often happens. So it's hard to decide whether to wait to drop in the $ 10- $ 11K range or maybe it could go down to $ 9K, all of which can happen because the predicted increase will happen at the end of the year and continue to move into the next year.

it remains for you to properly analyze whether you need to hold a hold at the current price or buy or sell it with the aim that the price will fall again. but we can be sure the price will increase in the next year and could be several times from 2017. we are waiting ...

It's much better to have such plans before you decide positioning yourself, it's not new since the market is really volatile.

You have to prepare yourself and make sure you are capable in adjusting in case market continue to fall then you have still spare
money to buy and try to wait till the bounce show back and brings you decent profits.

There should always be a plan B yet price are way too unpredictable thats why you should prepare yourself if your initial step or plan had failed then if the price goes down even deeper then you should ready the funds for you to accumulate way more cheaper coins.We might presume that the price wont shoot down on big percentage on a single day.
When buying back then we do always have those doubts and fear which is unavoidable and i cant blame someone if they do panicked out due to that reason.
Its always been like this where people do keep telling on buying the dip but doubts will always be attached to it.

the problem is no one really knows if it has dropped to the bottom, for example the btc price fell from 15k to 12k, some people suggest that it has gone to the bottom and will bounce back but in fact it is still initially down again to the 10k range, so you have to prepare money or a strategy when the price goes down you buy and expect the price to fall again and will buy back at the next decline, at least it might be more useful.

if you are given the opportunity to buy the price at the bottom, then that is a good opportunity,
because the increase will occur if there is strong support, make sure you don't use all of your capital,
and you can share it to buy altcoins in the dip

Different time, lower price ranges, but the same path to price-discovery to 6 a digit valuation. I may have bought higher than you, but buying below $10,000 is still a golden opportunity in my opinion.

Largely when the price rise works out, the exact purchase price is not going to matter too much, and sometimes fence sitters are toiling over whether BTC prices might drop a few hundred or even $1,000 in terms of their buying threshold.

I recall sharing similar kinds of posts in 2014/2015/2016 when the BTC price had fluctuations that were all over in the triple digits - spending a lot of time bouncing largely between $250 and $700 during that timeframe - and surely, when we zoom out a bit, any of those BTC prices for that whole period seem like a god-damned bargain - whether buying at the high, the low or the middle.. just like you suggest, Wind_FURY.

By the way, on the short term, it may have felt really stressful to have bought a shitload of BTC in early 2014 for around $700 (let's say that you transferred a large portion of your investment portfolio into BTC that amounted to $35k or so, and so you acquired 50 BTC with that money) and then to sit on your hands for those whole three years while BTC prices were mostly below $700.

At the same time, costs per BTC could have been brought down somewhat by continuing to dollar cost average through the subsequent three years of 2014-2015, and perhaps even a modest $100 per month ($3,600) could have fairly easily added another 10 BTC onto the stash, so instead of crying that you bought too high, you actively stuck with your investment with a reasonable amount and brought down your cost per BTC from $700 each to $643 each ($35k + $3,600 = $38,600/60 BTC)..


Of course, a more aggressive DCA practice would have brought down the cost per BTC more, so for example if you had the inclination to lump sum $35k, and that was only intended to use half of your overall budget (on lump sum investing), but then you also planned to spread out the other 50%  of the amount that you intended to invest $36k over the next 36 months (which would be $1,000 per month), and you were able to increase your BTC stash by 100 BTC (rather than 10 BTC) then your average per BTC at the end of that period would have been ($35k + $36,000 = $71,000/150 BTC) = $473 per BTC. 

Sure currently at $11k per BTC, it may not make a real BIG difference if your cost per BTC was $700 each or $473 each, but still there are ways to have ongoing BTC accumulation practices that will not necessarily break you during the process of accumulating BTC but they will add up during time - even if you do not have any lump sum amount that you can start out investing, you can merely start with investing what you can and letting the value add up over time - even if the amount that you have to work with is only $10 per week.  Still adds up over time, and 5 to 10 years later, the amount of BTC (or sats) that you would have stashed away will likely seem like BIG numbers, even if the amounts did not seem like a lot at the time that you were stacking sats.

In early 2015 and even into 2016, I had entered into some cashflow issues that caused me inabilities to buy BTC during quite a bit of that time, even when the BTC price was lower than the amounts that i had paid in 2014 - but I recall some times in 2015, that I would come across an extra $100 or $200, and I would put half of that into my cash reserves and the other half would go into buying BTC.  So if the BTC price was around $250 during a lot of the time in 2015, I would either purchase $50 (.2 BTC) or $100 (.4 BTC) in BTC (that's half of my extra cashflow0.  I even made those kinds of purchases (of stashing away part of the cash and buying BTC with the other part of the cash) with smaller amounts of extra cashflow value when I had extra cashflow that would come in of $10/$5 (.02 BTC) or $20/$10 (.04 BTC).  Seems like a lot of BTC to accumulate now, but at the time, it just seemed like I was just adding piddly amounts of BTC to my BTC stash that might not even go anywhere (that is taking the chance that the ongoing incremental investment might go down rather than up).  Also, a lot of people like to think in terms of Satoshis, too, so if you are stacking away thousands or even hundreds of thousands of satoshis, it can start to feel like a lot after a while to have accumulated multiple millions of satoshis, and even reaching in the billions for some (which would be 10 more than BTC).

Because we plebs are thinking in the short term. Buying the dip also requires HODLing, dollar-cost-averaging, AND a very low time preference.

Plus would it truly matter if you bought Bitcoin at $3,000, $5,000, or $10,000 when it's done with its path to a 6-digit price discovery?

It seems to me that throughout this thread, several of us have been attempting to answer that question by suggesting a combination of personal BTC buying strategies to attempt to deal with the issue of how much of a BTC price dip is enough to buy, and personally I doubt that there are very many normies who can actually identify when a dip is over or how much of a dip to wait for in each correction period.

Many of us have suggested both identifying your own budget and buying regularly (such as DCAing) as a supplement to buying on dip.  Several of us have also suggested to NOT get too worked up regarding if you get the bottom of the dip, but just to buy regularly and to buy at various points within the dip, even if you may well not end up coming even close to maximizing how much BTC that you get, but if you are in a BTC accumulation stage of your investment (that you have personally established BTC accumulation goals for yourself, in terms of how much you want to accumulate), then with the passage of time, you will likely come out ahead with the value of your BTC even if you might run out of money from time to time because the BTC dip goes lower than you expected and lasts longer than you expected. 

Of course, there are no guarantees, but we have seen that BTC does still seem to be quite a great asymmetric bet to the upside, so in that regard, accumulating BTC is likely be a great practice as long as you have a long enough investment time horizon... such as having a time horizon that is 4 years or longer from any time that you purchase additional BTC.

In other words, I doubt that many of us here are expecting to be able to time anything close to any exact BTC price bottom, and many of us appreciate that the better longer term strategies continue to involve just buying BTC regularly, and doing your best in terms ballpark guessing in terms of buying the dip without necessarily getting obsessed with whether you had correctly gotten (or guessed) the exact bottom of any dip... it is not necessary to buy on any extremes of dips in order to become greatly profitable and successful with your BTC investment so long as you have a decently long and ongoing investment horizon.  At the same time, of course, there are going to be some personal variability in terms of circumstances, too, that can attempted to be accounted for and adapted to figure out if the accumulation of BTC would be a good plan and practice within your own personal situation.

Same problem mate. I already knew the idea of buying in dip however, I can't decide when to do it because I have some thought that what if it goes down a bit more that would really make me regret my decision. I am no expert in this field that is why sometimes I doubt my analysis. But I do always monitor how the market chart behave and fortunately, I am making a good job I think.

Dump your DeFi shitcoin, convert back to Bitcoin, and HODL. Don't let those scammers/frauds/snake-oil salesmen take the only thing they want from you. Your Bitcoins.

I consider that "better off" in terms of buying on dips and DCA buying is a matter of psychological and financial rather than mere financial.... so sure, you can always go back and second guess yourself in terms of BTC price movements that you could have or should have seen.. or maybe times in which you bought too much too soon, and you should have waited for more dip.

I don't know what you are talking about regarding $10k.

Sure, currently, it seems as if $10k is a decent bottom, but we also thought the same thing in November 2018 and even at some later times regarding $6k being the bottom... It was the bottom, until it was not.

I never proclaim to know exactly good buying points in terms of them being universally good, even if there may well be a good probability that a price, such as $10k is good at this particular moment (until it is not... )


One good thing about exstasie seems to be that he is more than willing to share various aspects regarding his attempted analysis, and he has a decent tendency to flesh it out.

I doubt that it is fair to put him exactly in a category regarding that he is more willing to buy on the way up, because he surely seems ready and willing to attempt to time waves, and surely way the hell more willing to make bets in that regard than I am.



Your use of the term bearish seems different than mine, even though I will concede that we seem to be in a correction that is within a largely bull market and a largely bull asset.  I have asserted that our bull market had gotten tentatively confirmed as of about May 2019, and we have not bounced out of such bull market, even though we have had quite a few decently long and decently deep corrections subsequent to such confirmed bull market.

But hey, whatever, I might be quibbling over semantics more than anything, even though I am surely not going to take for granted that we are necessarily anywhere near finishing our current correction - even though as we continue to go back and forth in terms of attempting to figure out where the BTC price might go in the short term, the longer term bottom of the 200 week moving average continues to move up, and currently that bottom has just passed above $6,600, so surely any of us longer term investors should be feeling good about the ongoing movement up of the 200 WMA... and some confidence in continuing to accumulate BTC and buying on dips, as that bottom keeps moving up (and of course hoping that it continues to move up in the future, too). .. and even more comfortable, if our average cost per BTC happens to be less than the 200WMA price.

Also, currently the Mayer multiple is at 1.15 as I type, and the average is 1.36, so it is slightly below average, which also could be a signal to buy or that the BTC price has decent chances of moving up.

https://mayermultiple.info/

I don't know if I'm better off, but as a personal preference, and for my personal comfort, I tried to buy all the Dipcoins below $10,000.


I believe extasie and traders with his style, like to buy during a bull market. I buy when everyone is bearish, and what is Bitcoin-bearish? Dipcoins under $10,000, the lower the better.

Of course, there are potential trade offs to DCA and buying every dip, including not really knowing whether the dip is BIG enough.  I am suggesting (I think that you Wind_FURY are saying the same thing) that BTC accumulators will be much better off, just buying on a regular basis, DCAing and attempting to be reasonable in terms of their attempts to buy on the dips, so maybe at best employing these kinds of buying on dips practices might get BTC accumulators 5% or 10% more bitcoin, perhaps, perhaps?

Posters like exstasie seem to be suggesting that attempting to time the market and really holding back on regular DCA'ing and perhaps saving up all that money to buy on the BIGGER dips, then those guys are going to be able to perform even better than the regular DCA'ers and the folks who are buying on every single dip....

I am thinking  that probably in the end, those guys who are trying to  time the market in order to BUY BIG on  BIG dips are largely NOT outperforming the regular DCA'ers and the ones who are just buying on  even small dips.

Sure, scenarios can be painted in to show me that there are situations where guys could have waited until BTC prices got down into the $3ks or even sub $6ks in 2018, 2019 and 2020 rather than buying so many coins in the supra $7ks, supra $10ks and even the supra $14ks, and I am thinking that it is a BIG SO WHAT because the regular buyer is going to get those low prices (sure maybe run out of money at points when the prices are in the sub $6ks), but he will still end up accumulating way more BTC and becoming more profitable than the one who tries to time the maximum bottom points.

So, of course, guys like exstasie are going to be able to point out examples of BTC accumulators who were able to accumulate more BTC at lower BTC prices because they waited, and I am going to suggest too, that especially in BTClandia, there are a large number of instances where those same kinds of waiting for the price guys are going to wait themselves into having to buy higher and so in the end there are a large number of them who end up doing considerably worse than the more committed DCAer and the more committed buying on dips (even small dips) kinds of investors - especially when it comes to bitcoin.

Now, if we are looking at some other kind of investment, then of course, the results will likely end up being different, but we are talking about BTC here, so seems to me that preparing for up is rarely a BAD thing - except for those folks who sometimes may end up overinvesting - but that is a bit of a different kind of issue in terms of NOT investing more than you can afford to lose... which some people do end up getting too much into any investment in terms of NOT having their cashflow sufficiently managed, so with any long term investment it is good to have your cashflow in order and to be investing into the longer term investment in such a way that you are neither thinking about the investment nor tempted to withdraw from it on a regular basis... and so if you are investing for at least 4-year timeline but even better a 10 year or longer time line, then you should not be tempted to be cashing out any of your BTC stash during that time, just adding to it on a regular basis... and then realize where you are at in terms of withdrawal considerations 4 years (or better yet 10 years or more) down the road.

For a me as a pleb-newbie, compared to other newbies who like to day-trade, maybe.


What does it matter if Bitcoin is on its price-discovery to 6 digits? If they want a definite reply, then buy any dip under $10,000.

Yep... and I bet you do much better than the vast majority of folks who attempting to be more strategic about how much is enough of a dip, but an ongoing plan of buying regularly and taking advantage of some degree of dip (even though we can never really know how far the dip is going to go and how long the dip is going to last). 

Part of my reason for making my above post, is that frequently peeps ask "how much of a dip is enough?"  Usually the answer in bitcoin would be that any dip should be better than no dip, when it comes to buying, and in the long term, much of this is going to just iron itself out, and if you end up acquiring 10 BTC over the next 10 years, maybe you end up acquiring .5BTC extra merely because you were buying on dips rather than NOT paying attention.  perhaps?  Hard to know, for sure... but you can know if you are regularly buying BTC and overall your BTC stash is growing rather than either staying the same or shrinking... and you can measure and monitor such growth with the passage of time, too.

I remember from late 2013 to late 2016 while i was building my BTC portfolio.  I had some target BTC sizes that I wanted to reach, and as I kept accumulating BTC, I continued to move my target up higher.  After a while, I got to a certain point that I was NO longer feeling as much urgency about how much BTC that I accumulated.  Sure, not going to complain about accumulating a bit more BTC here and there, but at some point, if we keep accumulating, we hope to reach a point where we can run the numbers and recognize that if the hypothetical bullish BTC UP scenario plays out anywhere close to approximations, we have enough BTC to profit quite well from such a scenario.

Even if we might already consider that we have already profited considerably from such a scenario already having had played out.. even if we can end up experiencing another stage of upwards BTC price movements, which is largely icing on the cake of an already better than expected scenario already having had played out... and no real likelihood seems to be in play that average or better than average scenarios will not continue to play out.. with the chance of even exceptional scenarios similar to the past.  No guarantees with any of this, of course, but you cannot win it if you are not in it... hahahahaahaha.

Ahahaha! This is so me. People think I am rich for having bitcoin but they didn't know how small I currently have. Well the good part is that it keeps on increasing through buying the dips. I remember having my first satoshi from faucets back in 2016. Too bad I did not bought a bunch of BTCs back then.

That's why I always recommend newbies to use dollar-cost-averaging. Buy some Dipcoins now, buy more later during more dips. Although, I'm not a trader, and it's not a strategy for "traders. I'm just a pleb-saver.