Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 607. (Read 131290 times)

I would hardly characterize 12% or 13% as a BIG correction.. (from a top of $19,918 to a low today of $17,640) (and that low was about 20 hours ago from the time of this post). Sure such a BIG dippening might happen, but there is nothing really unusual or BIG yet...  The BTC price is still floating around in no man's  land.. we have hardly left no man's land, yet (that is between $17,250 and $23,500), and it is dangerous to be betting on either down or sideways when we are in "no man's zone." 

In other words, we cannot even tell if this is the end of this modest dippening that some peeps believe to be "BIG" or if there is going to be more dippening. 

If you wait for more dip or sideways, and you do not buy at some point in order to prepare yourself for up, then you may well be regretting regretting such waitening at a later date..

Of course, the punchline remains that it is better to be prepared your finances and psychology for either up or down.. and of course, sideways is even less likely, even though it feels that we are in the midst of such sideways.


Well, your forum registration date is September 2016, and of course, soon thereafter, that was the end of 3 digits - even while none of us really knew at the time that early 2017 was the last that we would be seeing three digits.. around March or April 2017, I believe the charts show.

But you can really never know, either.

You only have the cashflow that you have or the ability to move around assets, and it can be quite risky to employ debt  - as seems to be the current Michael Saylor play.. which may end up paying off quite well, but it can be risky for smaller players who do not necessarily got their cashflow shit together.

Something like 21BTC might be a reasonable and fair target, but it may be overkill too, depending on your various finances whether we are considering cashflow, other investments and timeline.. Does not necessarily hurt to have goals, but each of us should still be tailoring the best that we can to our own situation in order that we don't get overinvested, either psychologically or financially - which has screwed up quite a few people who thought they were bitcoin bulls and then they overinvest.. which does not always work out well.

Envy the guy who "always" sells or goes all in on contracts then, if the 20k is never to be broken.

My only headache, which is a good one to have, is that, for how long more will I be able to "cheaply" accumulate? 21 club seemed tough enough when I first fancied a crack, and then BTC never saw 3-digit price not long after. My "worry" is we hit 6-digits values well before I'm ready.

it seems that now Bitcoin price is in a dip, a big correction is happening now,
that there is Fud about MTGOX, buy and hold, there is a possibility that it will go up again

There are all kinds of theories out there that have some truth to them and explanatory aspects, so of course, I do not disagree with ideas in regards to efficiencies of markets to find various gravitation points whether it is gravitating based on speculation regarding future price or gravitating based on the knowledge of current users or future users.. there is going to be valid explanatory effects with these kinds of theories, and probably it is a bit fruitless to attempt to battle why either of us might lean more towards one theory or another - and I think that I adequately explained why I have some problems with such "priced in" theories to the extent that they are attempted to be espoused.

In regards to bitcoin, I still find the stock to flow, 4 year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects to be the most valid explanatory models for bitcoin, and sure throw some of that stupid-ass efficiency market dynamics principles here and there.. but you are likely to lead to a lot of dumbass conclusions if you do not prioritze the three models that I am suggesting and also attempt to ascribe way more maturity to bitcoin as an asset class than it deserves (which the efficiency market hypothesis seems to attempt to do - fallaciously, at that    ).

This past weeks are literary the first time that bitcoin has ever tried to break $20k and it has only tried once to break it. So far we had 2017 which was a bubble and the attempt was to break $19k not $20k although none of them could be called "resistance". Then we have the past 2 months where $19k was broken and later a new ATH was set at $19918 and the only reason why price came down is because it is a psychological resistance.
These 1 or 2 attempts can't be called "always"!

I was a little confused, and I was a little lazy to re-read, and internalize. But I do believe that price speculation is more quickly priced in today, in the age of information technology, because simply, information is transmitted and received faster than ever before. There are more "knowns" than "unknowns" today in my opinion, and Bitcoin's price is efficient, on the value that it should be. It is real value, not mere speculation, although speculation is a small part of it. Because if it was merely speculation, then I believe Bitcoin would be valued at $500,000 by now. It would be Tulip Mania.

There's no "always" in bitcoin.. unless you believe bitcoin is never going to get above $20k.. Then you may as well sell all your BTC now...

very lucky if you buy Bitcoin when the price of Bitcoin experiences dump 2020 occurs,
a very high increase occurred in this April-December, if this bullish trend still occurs,
then $ 20k might happen again, and Dip? I don't think there will be any more

If you conclude that it is too risky to buy BTC here, then sorry for your loss in that you have either sold too much too soon or failed to buy enough.


Way too early to determine if resistance is "too difficult to penetrate"  Sure it is possible that a big correction from here but the odds seem to be slightly in favor of UPpity rather than DOWNity, currently.



Yeah, but we are not at those prices now... so decisions have to be made based on where we are at rather than what "could have been"


Yeah.. good luck with that ethereum (off topic) smoke and mirrors crap.. you are quite likely going to need it.

I might not be articulating very well, but that theory does have quite a few problemas... that's mostly what I had been trying to highlight.


That's why your description is a wee bit off, BrewMaster - since we are currently more likely at the beginning of 2017 rather than "through" 2017... Apart from that point, I agree with everything you said.

Maybe going "all in" and leveraging at $19k would be risky.. but I doubt anyone is really saying that.  If you do not have any bitcoins, and the price is $19k you better get some stake in the game... that is risky as well if you have no stake at all and you know about BTC.

A big correction? it may happen but I don't think that we'll see it again this time. We've done through the correction and it has dumped to $16k. That's likely the big correction that you're waiting for. And if you missed that, then you have to wait again until it goes back at that price.
But in the meantime, there's strong support for bitcoin on $18k-$19k.

Many people have made the fatal mistake of buying bitcoin at a fairly high price right now, buying bitcoin for $ 19k is certainly too risky especially it seems that the price of bitcoin in the market has a price resistance that is difficult to penetrate and it can make some people's money stuck in the market and even can experience substantial losses if there is a market correction that causes the price of bitcoin to decline, I think the ideal time to buy bitcoin is when bitcoin passes the price resistance of $ 15k-16k. For now, I personally prefer to keep my money and prefer eth as an investment alternative while monitoring whether bitcoin is able to cross the $ 20k price or not at all.

2017 history? You mean when the year started just shy of the previous ATH and the price increased 20-fold?

Buying at $19k now is like buying at $9xx 4 years ago... a splendid investment opportunity.

If 2017 history repeats itself, anyone not all-in with Bitcoin would feel REKT.

We might be saying that the current movement is similar to that 2015-2017 then i do partly agree with that but if we do try to look at on how it behaves
when it comes to price correction then we can really tell the difference that this isnt something comparable into those past years.Price do correct but
not really on a very bearish manner.Good thing that it do holds and been trying to break out that previous ath and that really molds some
hope and boost in someones emotion and thinking on being positive towards the current crypto market trend.

i don't think so. i have said it multiple times here that history repeats itself and this has been pretty much the same as 2015 through 2017 so far with all the drops and the rises up until the ATH.
even the current small drop and multiple rises back to the ATH (the big resistance) is also exactly like 2017.
if anything the risk now is lower, when you consider the growth bitcoin is having you can see the lower risk even more.

To me it's still fair game to buy. Here point is do you afford to buy now and wish to get it back to 11k or under? Only possible if big institutions are manipulating the price now, they know all you people will sell at $20k. I would like to let you know the foundational pillars of this risk is very different than 2017.

I do agree with your opinion, buying at $19k would be a very dangerous move because you wouldn't predict BTC's price and therefore we don't afford to take this much risk. I hope buying time had already gone now those early buyers have started making profit due to a bullish trend.

I believe it's based on facts, although the model doesn't explain why Bitcoin is priced at 5 digits instead of the 7-digit valuation in the chart.


Partly.

Plus "everything is priced in" is not "total-bullshit". It's from the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

the thing we want is that there will indeed be another big movement from bitcoin and we don't need to be afraid of other bad things and I really believe that will never happen for now and next year. where bitcoin will hit a new ATH which is perhaps more surprising than it did yesterday.

I don't know if you are being facetious, Wind_FURY... but the "priced-in" theory is close to total bullshit.

Of course, there is going to be some truth to any meaningful theoretical framework that involves making a trajectory of the future based on present knowledge, but anything as complex as a newly emerging asset class, such as bitcoin, is going to have a lot of surprises along the way.. including what will be in the heads of the new adopters that have no fucking clue (currently) that they are going to end up being new adopters of such phenomena...

 Yeah... sure we can plot out a curve that attempts to account for these knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns, blah blah blah.. but we are not going to have exact following of the curve, either.. and people are not going to want to pay presently for their trajectory of a future value that might not end up playing out exactly as expected, but merely a range of expectations of which way the prices could go which are other reasons that there is quite a but of bullshit contained within these attempts to assert everything is "priced in" blah blah blah....

Sure, stock to flow has a whole lot of co-integration in both the history and the BTC price prediction model, which is quite a surprise to be able to get so much alignment in the historical performance and the future prediction curves - and largely causes such model to have really high probabilities of playing out decently in accordance with projections or some reasonable variation.. but still such model would likely not be broken if the curve needs to be shifted based on changes in future circumstances that are currently not known, but once they become known, those new circumstances can be plugged into the model to end up adjusting its trajectory in a slightly or even greatly different direction than the earlier (pre-knowing the new circumstances) curve had predicted.

I'm just turned off by the idea of priced in.. even though free markets can be quite efficient with what information that they know.. but as the information changes, they adjust along the way, too.. in order to stay efficient, even if it could take a while for the information to get out there.. which also undermines some of the assumptions of priced in theories assuming that information is really out there and known... and don't we all know dumb fucks who actually act in the opposite direction to what information that they actually do know, too.