I’m not patronizing, or making fun, or anything like that. I am simply scared to tell close friends, and family to buy during the current market cycle.
Sure, we might have some wee bit differing ways of framing these matters, and nothing wrong with that. I can see that you may well change your emphasis a bit with people in regards to anticipating which way the price might go and if you have some sentiments regarding if the BTC price is currently at a bottom or a top, yet in my thinking that would not negate the formula to divide such BTC accumulation conceptualizations into three parts, even though it may well (and probably should) affect the deployment of those portions or might even cause some reallocations in the proportions regarding the three parts which to remind everyone (all readers) are: 1) buying right away, 2) DCA buying and 3) buying on dips.
Sure.. people seem really reluctant, and there is ONLY so much that you can do in terms of evangelizing or however else you would like to frame your interaction approach. And, sure I can understand how you may well come off with stronger recommendations during periods in which you believe there is a BTC dip versus when there has been a decent amount of BTC price appreciation.. and I know that I do a bit of the same in terms of a bit more or a bit less emphasis.. but I believe in the end, I am not really changing a whole hell of a lot because I do largely continue to tell people to get in and to devise a plan no matter the BTC price.. and sure they are responsible for how to tailor their plan, but if they are making long term plans that are a minimum of 4 years and likely a bit longer such as 10 to 20 years, then they should be able to account for likely interim volatility, including major BTC price corrections that may well take place along the way.
I do have some problems when I am talking to more elderly folks who might not even feel comfortable with a four year minimum investment timeline.. but I do not stop from recommending BTC to them, but instead assert that the ideal is having at least a 4 year investment timeline and hopefully longer, and if they know that they are going to want to or be needing to withdraw value from BTC in a shorter period of time, then I surely am a lot more inclined to suggesting smaller investment amounts to them rather than what they might otherwise attempt to accomplish if their investment timeline was 4 years or longer.
Another thing is that I am not failing/refusing to account for possibilities that BTC might go to zero or some mediocre value in the interim, but those conceptualizations would largely go towards supporting any investment thesis that suggests not investing more than you can afford to lose which would include having a mental and financial framework in which such investor(s) is (are) willing to ride the investment down to zero in the event that such an occurrence would unfold in the coming years (which does seem a lot smaller in recent times as compared to when I started buying bitcoin in late 2013).
Don't get me wrong, I am not against chiding people from time to time who have been informed about bitcoin and failed/refused to act... but I am somewhat against suggesting that people who might unwittingly start buying BTC at the top of a cycle might not be able to retain and maintain and even adjust investment plans in such a framework that I suggest and to be BIG boys and girls in terms of having and employing a decent buy, accumulate and HODL strategy during such ongoing BTC price dippening cycles that may well extend way beyond expectations... but such accumulations of BTC during such times have historically proven to play out quite profitable in the longer term for almost every single bitcoiner who has not fucked around with trading but has employed relatively prudent strategies that emphasize BTC accumulation, stacking and HODLing.... so yeah, past performance is no kind of guarantee of future results, but whatever, bitcoin still remains a strong ass investment class with strong fundamentals which continues to deserve serious consideration including investing into it in something in the range that starts in the 1% to 10% arena and perhaps outside of that range for folks who study bitcoin dynamics and their own situation in a way to determine that it would be prudent for them to invest outside of that range.