Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 608. (Read 131290 times)

What is the rationale for the red line? Has the money supply increased 100 or more times? Or is this just an assumption, but in this case it is nothing more than someone's fantasy and this cannot be considered at least somewhat serious forecast.

I am believer that everything is priced in the market, and that the market is very efficient, but this person, who's responsible for the S2F model, wants me to believe different. Hahaha.



Mid-7 digits.

If you're thinking on buying Bitcoin then stop thinks about the dips. You should buy it now, then buy several more times if it goes down. You can't lose long term, people who bought at the all time high 20k in 2017 and then bought on regular basis are still in a large amount of profit at this point. So, If it's your long term investment, buy whenever.

That's the spirit!!!!


Well, yeah.. some people have no clue at all about what bitcoin is.  

There are likely degrees of differences in these kinds of people including some of them who have heard the name and think they know what BTC is, but if push comes to shove and you try to get them to explain it, they have no clue.

There are likely others who have some ideas about what bitcoin is, but they failed to sit down for a few hours, or a day or two or a week or whatever amount of time that it takes in order to figure out how to add bitcoin to their investment portfolio (to the extent that they have any kind of investment portfolio that they have actively set up or sometimes their employer might have helped them to set up an investment portfolio, but still does not mean that thy have taken active steps on their own to figure out any kind of investment beyond some minimum investments... perhaps buying a house or believing that buying a car is an investment.. hahahahaha).


Actually, that is correct.  Once you know about it, then you are advantaged.  Once you have set up btc investment channels, then you are also advantaged because you know how to manuever the basics.

Sure, it is possible that all your wealth is removed (or mine, if we use me as an example) and then you are able to jump straight back into it.. even if maybe you have to start from scratch.. and maybe in some hypothetical scenarios you would ONLY be able to invest $30 a week.. but you would figure out a way to prioritize getting (or reestablishing) your BTC stake - whatever you could reasonably accomplish under your new hypothetical circumstances..


perhaps..


You mean building equity and then being able to borrow against it, if needed?


It could be a matter of your never having had reached that level.... so I don't know..

For example, if you invested 15% of your investment portfolio into bitcoin, and the remainder of your investments (which were sufficient  to support you, so you could give less than two shits if BTC performs the same or better or even if it were to completely tank) and then BTC did 100x price appreciation, then all of a sudden the BTC portion of your investments are more than 95% the value of your other investments that had been enough to support you... so then all of a sudden you have something like more than .. 18x the amount that you need to support yourself.

So, it could have been that your idea of getting richie from BTC would have been if you BTC became equal to the amount of your other investments, so it would have become 50/50, but instead, it becomes 95/5... It seems that the investment had far exceeded your expectations.. and your needs.... and all of a sudden you have to step up your spending game because you have way more than what you had expected to have.


Could be.   Sure, you can find things to spend the money on.. .. as long as you have your health.


Since I don't know your circumstances, it seems to me that you are just picking artificial and random price points.. so hopefully sitting back is a plan that works for you.


Again seeming a bit arbitrary.. It's not like bitcoin comes to an end... but however you feel comfortable thinking about it, that remains your prerogative..



You seem to be contradicting yourself... you were anticipating sitting back after the BTC price crosses over $20k.. and then now you are talking about staying active no matter what...

Seems to be a bit of a contradiction.

My idea on the topic is to trade BIGGER and BIGGER swings as the BTC price goes up, so in that way as the price goes up, my order s are not triggered as often.. I do not completely stop.. but I would likely have to spend way less time engaged in such activities...

That has already been happening for me in terms of my orders getting more and more spread out.. NOT just in terms of dollars but in terms of percentages of spread that triggers orders on either end.


Yeah, but it is NOT really that time of the cycle to return to the 208 week moving average.

Sure we returned to it during the 2014/2015 dippening.. and sure we returned to it for the December 2018 dippening.. and we crossed below it for several days during the March 2020 liquidation event.. but it tends to NOT be a frequent occurance to be returning to it all of the time.

I doubt that we are returning to such 208 week moving average until after we get some meaningful run-up in this cycle.. whether that is within 6 months, 1 year or 18 months... but, we do not seem to be in a position to be returning to that level at this time.. even if you would like something like that to happen, seems pretty damned low odds.. even though not impossible as we both seem to be recognizing... but you seem to be considering such return as more likely than I consider it to be - prior to 18 months or so.

By the way, if you are largely prepared for up, then you cannot even really take advantage of such a price drop, anyhow.. so many of us end up largely HODLing through such event, if it were to occur.. maybe we pick up some coins, here or there, but does not significantly increase our stash, especially if we are mostly expecting UPpity rather than DOWNity.


We seem to be saying slightly different things.  I am saying prepare for both directions... of course, I don't deal with stop losses and that kind of bullshit.. but hey, you seem to like that stuff...

I largely just play longs... but I claim to NOT be a trader, too.. even though I do shave some profits on the way up.. largely for insurance and psychological purposes..


I just did a quickie look at that 200 week moving average and it is almost $7,500... so I am not sure about what you are saying.  If your current costs per BTC are about $7,500, why would you prefer your costs to be higher than $7,500?

Seems that my costs per BTC are going down with the passage of time, even if I buy at higher prices because any new BTC are bought with proceeds from sales.. so based on that kind of formula, the newly purchased BTC would come out to be partly free.


Seems kind of rigid.. but whatever floats your boat.


Sure.. could be.... not guaranteed, but could be.


Fair enough that you are trying to be prepared for a variety of scenarios... and I consider myself doing the same thing... but using different tactics... and a lot more incrementalisms in terms of both my BTC sales and my BTC buys, so it seems.


I don't really know, but it surely could happen at any time.  I was surprised for ATH to be broken on November 30.. so that breaking of ATH seems to create ongoing UPpity.. but hey, I would not be surprised for a delay of a month or longer.. just far from a given when the current odds seem to be in favor of $20k being broken soon (imminently).,. which would be in the coming days or weeks rather than waiting more than a month.. but hey.. what do I know?


Noobs have to think about their own situation rather than trying to figure out what others might be doing or not... blah blah blah.  Sure part of the formula for anyone does have to do with considering where the price might go.. but at the same time, they should not be fucking around with trying to guess price direction.  So three part of their buy formula should be to buy right away with part, set another part up for DCA and set another part up for buying on dips.  Those are the three parts and they keep doing their three parts until their accumulation goals are reached.. then they can start fucking around, after they reach their accumulation goals.. that is my little suggestion - but in the end all peeps are responsible for their lil selfies and they can do what they like.  I always give the same advice.. and sure of course, there could be a bit of tailoring that individuals do based on if the BTC price seems more inclined for DOWNity rather than UPpity, too.. individuals will vary in their approach and some will come to and develop smarter behaviors than others.


Sure.,. each person should be looking at their cash flow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, their timeline, risk tolerance and their time, skills and abilities to plan, learn and tweak their plans which also might involve reallocating from time to time and/or trading.



Hahahahahaha

Yes, and it is one of my most favorite things to beat people up about.. overly expressing certainty in either direction, even though I do let bullish proclamations get more passes on the topic... call me a hypocrite..   


Sometimes the long shots do happen and sometimes the odds are looking pretty damned favorable for a certain direction.. even though I rarely have feelings that are greater than 60%, especially in the short run.. but that's me.. I am a bit of a waffler and also a bit of a criticizer when I see someone expressing certainty that gets into the 80% to 100% range.. I kind of give a pass to those who are more certain than me.. in the 60-% to 80% range.. even though some times I will harp on them, too...   You might be an example of that.. I mean you might be an example of someone who I harp on for seeming to be expressing greater certainties than I believe, even though we might only be off by 5%, 10% or some variation like that.

This is the most simplest and accurate truth of them all. Nothing is a guarantee in the Bitcoin world, apart from the fixed supply and a few other factors, SHA256 and the like.
You can even be very confident, or very sure about the future direction price, but it will never be the case 100% of the time.
Basic statistics = anything can happen.

You must not know bitcoin...

There is no such thing as always...

You might be able to reasonably assert "most of the time," or you might be able to assert "frequently"... but "always"... yeah right.       You must be new here.   

Going to give this reply a go...


Sometimes I forget that others who are interested in Bitcoin right now aren't already 95% all in, or even 1-5%, something low and reasonable. I'm not going to argue that if you don't have any, then current any price is the correct price to buy, followed by lower prices if they come. A someone invested "as much as possible" in Bitcoin, as you know, I often overlook that my perspective is very different from others, based on how invested I already am. If I didn't have any coin at the moment, for sure I'd be buying up what I can, knowing that I basically fucked up not buying it for the past 3 years. If I had sold it all recently to become a no-coiner, I'd be buying it back regardless of price. Panic buying basically. To me it's also about desiring low risk exposure to fiat, rather than gaining value due to Bitcoin, not so different from buying a house for example.


Maybe I'll just feel like I'll never have enough. It wouldn't matter if I had 100 or 1,000 BTC, if I could always buy more for cheaper that I know would appreciate in value in the long-term. Probably this says a lot more about my personality of never feeling fully satisfied, even though I'm aware that nothing is perfect in life. I will actually be happy when Bitcoin finally breaks $20K, knowing that I can sit back and enjoy the ride from then, buy some dips when I can, but otherwise the train has left the station and I'm on fully board. But while price remains <$20K, I'll always prefer the best discounts possible to buy into, knowing that these prices will likely never be seen again in our lives. There's also perhaps sentimental value, this being my first full cycle from getting in mid-bull market in 2017, not wanting the new cycle to start yet, as I've enjoyed the current one so much.


But I'll always be building my investment portfolio, that'll be never-ending to me. Whether it's buying dips now, in the future, trading shitcoins for satoshis, etc. I'll always be balancing my risk reward and exposure to diversity etc. Hence prefer cheaper prices than expensive ones, it's not that I'm not prepared for up, I feel very well positioned for it.


That's the thing, if we return to the 200/208 Week MA (nice use of 4-year moving average by the way), then I'd be happy with this  


Sure, I completely agree, people do need to be prepared for up, as I have been for many months now. As you know I only sold 3.5% recently, that I'm still satisfied with (if I didn't my stop loss would now be around $17.9K probably). This was the money I couldn't afford to lose, whereas there are many that are waiting for dips that might never come for sure.


Well clearly no coiners haven't accumulated enough BTC, that seems pretty obvious to me, as well as the precoiners and excoiners out there.

I say I won't be accumulating above $20K, but I realise this also depends on if a dip happens or not. For me I'm more interested in my average price, that now sits around the 200 Week MA, whereas in reality I'd like it to be around $10K, but alas, lack of dips. Probably if we reach $50K, then my opinion would change and an average of $20K would seem more reasonable, as for me having positions 150% above price is a good reason to be increasing risk, but ideally from discounts not potential premiums.

None the less, I only like increasing my risk with good discounts, so whether this be a discount from here, or $50K, I'm ok with waiting it out. It might sound strange I know, but if we go from $4K to $40K say without a significant correction, then I believe the correction could be huge, like 50%, even 75% dare I say it, like $14K to $4K all over again, rather than 25-35%. Highly unlikely I know, but I prefer to be prepared for that as well as every other scenario. Because in a less volitile and higher liquidity market that Bitcoin is now in, price shouldn't going as parabolic as it used to, as you probably know. If this bull market structure is completely different from previous ones, then anything becomes possible, especially the unexpected.

That said, I agree institutions will likely buy in heavily above $20K, likely leading to a rally that few of us have anticipated. I won't be surprised by near future prices personally, but I'm still anticipating like many, that $20K to be broken early next year than this one.

Any noob reading this must think "So I should buy now but others who are well invested aren't and are instead selling a bit". I realise this can sound somewhat hypocritical, but it all comes down to exposure levels and risk tolerance, much less about whether now is a good time to buy or not. It depends on the individual and their exposure already.

You seem to be engaging in wishful thinking if that is how you see what is going on, currently.


Why would you have to wait for below $16k?  If you are waiting for below $16k, then that would likely mean that you have already acquired enough BTC in the event that BTC prices go up from here (currently bouncing between about $18,000 and $19,050) rather than going below $16k, which may or may not happen..

Even if the odds could arguably be that there is a more than 50% chance that BTC prices revisit sub $16k... that seems like gambling to wait for such prices based on such odds.... unless you already have decent amounts of BTC.  I doubt that you even have greater than 60% odds for sub $16k.. but hey what do I know?  Each of us are going to assess odds differently, and hopefully each of us is attempting to be realistic about odds rather than assessing the situation based on what we wish to see (or happen) rather than attempting to realistically account for what is actually happening.

This my characteristic way waiting for when bitcoin or altcoin on lower price, I am not smart for analyze with chart and always think the most impact with price is bad or good news and there are not space to read chart because some one hold much assets is the power full how to make price, just waiting when he made good or bad news to buy and sell bitcoin or altcoin, when waste time for read chart but suddenly give bad news we loss chance to buy coin, look what happen last night when bitcoin suddenly dump but few hours later bitcoin and altcoin back to higher price most faster.

We can neither presume that we are going to get greater dips than 17% nor can we presume that monineklutak has established any kind of meaningful stake in bitcoin.

Sure, corrections of 30% to 40% or even greater than 50% can come at any time, but we cannot necessarily presume them - especially after having nearly 3 years of a large number of corrections... and bringing us down about 85% from the December 2017 top... and even a few pretty decent additional corrections therein.

If someone is just starting to get serious about bitcoin, then they are trying to figure out a plan, but they might NOT have figured out how much of a dip is enough of a dip, and so in that regard, our acknowledgement of a 17% dip might be one in which it could have been advantageous to have taken some action...

I am NOT a big fan of wait.. until the person wanting to accumulate BTC feels that they are decently prepared for UP.. or at least have some BTC... so sure, the devil is still in the details to a considerable degree regarding if some person might feel that they are decently and adequately prepared for UP given their assessment of their circumstances.



Well yeah.. that was last year, the year before and the year before.. we may well be in a bit of a different market, and yes I might also be preaching to the choir, but any of us who might not have any coins, but we are waiting for sub $16k, that might not happen... sure it could, but seems to me that it is good to prepare for either possibility..


At some point people may reach a point in which they have already prepared for UP, and maybe even overstocked in BTC so they feel that they have enough for UP.   Once you reach that status, then you may well prefer UP.  I have been largely in that position since late 2014.. but my stacking of BTC in 2015 and 2016 solidified the position more, and the raise in BTC prices has also further solidified that position.  Some BTC HODLers, once you get into a mostly HODLing status, don't necessarily find any advantages for downs.. Of course, it could make the BTC price more stable to have Downs along the way, and of course, no asset goes straight up.. but still, if you are mostly invested in the asset, then there should not be any problems with mostly continuous and ongoing UP.


I don't think that is the dilemma.. it is a matter of already being prepared for UP.. .

I understand that if you are not prepared for UP, or you do not have a good income, it could take 10, 20 30 or more years to have enough cashflow in order to feel prepared for UP... I am not necessarily presuming that everyone can get in, but surely, there are likely a decent number of people without large cashflows who feel that they need more time to accumulate a sufficient stash of BTC.


Not necessarily.

However I understand that there are market dynamics, too.... and this last BTC price run from early September broke through resistances in the $12,500 area, $13,880 area, and the $17,250 area.. without too many revisiting of any of these prices...

But a down correction is NOT a condition precedent for UP, so we could just end up continuing UP from here.  I do not proclaim to know which way the BTC price is going to go... and of course, I am always prepared for some down because my practice is to shave off small amounts of BTC on the way UP so that if the BTC price does correct down, then I will have cash to be able to buy as the BTC price is correcting, but that still does not take away my preference for up.. even though I am somewhat trying to be emotionally neutral and if the price does not go up,... that is fine, too.. I have enough BTC either way.


Sure.. understandable if you are in a position that you are still building your investment portfolio, then it is understandable that you are more able to take advantage of flat or down or even NO rush in the BTC price going up... however, that does not seem to be the world that we are living in.  BTC looks quite poised to head up from here, whether we like it or not, and BTC does not give any shits about what we might prefer.  It seems to be that kind of an asset, and sure there are no guarantees what BTC is going to doi even though the most convincing of BTC price prediction models seem to show pretty decent probabilities that BTC prices are heading UP from here rather than either down or sideways... and sure there might be some consolidation in this area and even decent corrections, but it still remains a good approach to attempt to prepare for UP as well as you can.

You already know the three most convincing of BTC price prediction models, but it does not hurt to repeat them.  Namely 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects.


Sure.  I am surely not saying that such corrections are NOT possible, but for sure, as I already asserted they are NOT a condition precedent for the BTC price to continue UPpity.  I give little shits which way it goes because I am prepared for any of the directions of UP, Down or sideways.. and of course, I would prefer it does not go to zero or have some outrageous event that causes it to revisit the 208 week moving average (which is approaching $7,200.,. moving up $100 every couple of weeks in recent times).. that would suck.. but I have buy orders that go down to $5k.. so I could deal with it, even though it would not be a preferred situation from my perspective... and probably would not even fair well for the prospects of bitcoin.. but we are not really in that kind of posture, and if we are attempting to be realistic, we are seeming to posture towards UP rather than DOWN.. even though corrections can happen, as you have been saying (and I am not really saying anything different, except that the BTC price does not really seem to be postured very well in that direction, and maybe you are giving higher odds to down, than I am giving.. perhaps?)



I don't give any shits... I just go by the models... so it is what it is.

When I got into BTC, I had hoped for 6% price appreciation per year in order that it averages at least the same as my traditional investments.  So the first few years, I did not get that 6% per year, but in the end it averaged out to way more than 6% per year, and seems to have been proving itself to be performing quite beyond an average of 6% per year.

In recent times, I have largely considered that it might be more reasonable to expect it to rise 12%-ish per year rather than 6%, and I use the 208-week moving average to attempt to figure that out... So really, I give less that two shits in terms of my preferences, because bitcoin has been way out performing my expectations and seems to be poised to continue to way out perform my preferences, and it does not really matter what I want.


We are saying similar things... and we seem to be just in differing positions, so I am not really sure what to say.. because you can ONLY do what you can do in order to accumulate BTC.. maybe your cashflow is not sufficient, I do not know.  I know that when I was in college, my investments kind of sucked, because I was investing in myself.. but still these days we are finding undermining of the dollar in various kinds of ways, so surely each of us has to figure out how to balance our BTC position and figure out ways that we are prepared for UP.. or maximizing our attempt to figure out the BTC price direction in the event that we feel that we are not adequately prepared for UP.

The first 25 years of my investing, I did not find any kind of asset like BTC.. so BTC is a unique kind of asset that NOT all people are going to take advantage, and sure dragonvslinux, one of your advantages remains that you know about BTC and you have been taking actions for at least a few years.. Maybe some of your actions have been inadequate in various regards, but seems to me that you are more advantaged to know about BTC than nearly 99% of the population of the world that have not taken much if any stake in BTC and do not even know about it, except maybe recognizing the word.


I am talking about "is" not "ought".. so, again, bitcoin does not give any shit about what we think.. we just have to attempt to play what we believe is going to happen to the best of our ability in terms of our own situation.  Since I have been stacking sats since late 2013 and stacking both dollars and sats since late 2015, my portfolio and my system just buys if the price goes down and sells if the price goes up, and of course, I prefer up.. and of course, I do not really sell very much on the way up.. and it ends up being plenty of stacking of dollars that can be used in the event that the BTC price goes down, but if it does not go down, then I just spend those dollars, at some point.. At some point, just remove them out of my system and spend them.

I understand that this particular thread is not about selling it is about buying the dip and HODLing.. which kind of presumes that you are already prepared for UP.. but you have to get to being prepared for UP before you should be fucking around with selling any of your BTC. .and that is how I think about it, even though people think differently about how to approach the matter... my approach has been to overstock in BTC so that I don't give any shits if I happen to shave a bit extra of them off as the BTC price goes up.  But you gotta get to that level first, in my thinking.. which seems to be what this thread is counseling.


I am not sure if BTC price matters, exactly, in terms of figuring out if you have enough BTC.  Of course, on a personal level, you can probably plot out your own situation too, and kind of get an idea about if you have enough, or not.  If you believe that you have accumulated enough BTC, then so be it.. that's your judgement. 

Of course if you have not accumulated enough BTC then you would have to buy at whatever happens to be the price.. and yeah, by definition noobs and no coiners have likely not accumulated enough BTC, yet.  That is for them to decide and to figure out based on their own situation and base on their view of bitcoin an those other individual factors..

Of course, we can play roles to help noobs, no coiners and pre-coiners to figure out their BTC accumulation strategies, whether it is buying on dips, DCA, HODL and other strategies that have worked for us in the past and seem to be prudent strategies in bitcoin, including learning about bitcoin as the space is likely going to continue to evolve and we will continue to learn about it as it evolves.

I am thinking that there are going to be plenty of peeps, institutions and governments accumulating above $20k, too.... or at least that seems to be the current posture of where this whole matter is going and is likely to go.

No, 17% is more like "meh", I'll dca a bit but ain't gonna put my life savings in. Obviously should of done that when Bitcoin was sub at a >50% discount, but some people will never learn.


Yes! Always. Why does everyone want to get even richer even quicker? The longer we stay under $20K, the richer we get by investing more right? I literally would be happy if Bitcoin stayed under $20K for another decade, I kid you not, as long as it held above around $5-10K. The longer we stay low for, the longer the bull market will be.


Something healthy, from a 2x in the past 6 weeks, 25-35% would be perfect. Re-test that $12-14K range ideally, rule that out now as ever needing testing again.


I think it's strange that those who are convinced by a long-term strategy, that Bitcoin will rise in value by XXXX%, would want prices to continue going up in an unsustainable parabolic manner. I can only imagine that if you live of your BTC and don't work anymore, then great, up is your friend. But if you want to accumulate as much as possible before $20K is broken, then down is better. I only earn so much each week that I can average in, like most people, therefore time is the real enemy here - not price.

I'd prefer to be buying discounts, than looking at the premiums thinking it's a bit expensive. This also comes down to me not really being that motivated to buy more Bitcoin once it passes $20K, I'll leave this to the noobs, instead just sitting on what I have, trade some alts for satoshi gains in the meantime, ride it out to 6 figures. Chill.

Didn't we get a  pretty decent correction?

You are wishing for more correction, monineklutak?

How much of a correction do you need (want)?

I will note that it is a bit strange to be hoping for down rather than UP, but sure, perhaps 3.5 years (going by your forum registration, monineklutak) was not enough time for you to buy some bitcoin at lower prices.


If you do not have any BTC, it is better that you buy at whatever price, so long as you have a decently long investment timeline of 4 years or longer, and if you have even a longer investment timeline, then that would be even better.

If you are considering that we are currently in a top like late 2017 (time that you registered on the forum), then you likely do not understand bitcoin very well, and you likely need to study bitcoin more, even though there are surely no guarantees in bitcoin... so each person has to be comfortable with his/her investment approach... which surely might involved getting a position buy buying on dips, dca'ing etc.. and once you start to get more of a comfortable position, kesmex, including having some comfort with your investment timeline.. whether that is 4 years or 10 years or more, then after spending time in bitcoin and accumulating, it could well be you will both begin to understand bitcoin better and better understand your approach to ongoingly investing and honing your BTC investment and accumulation strategy, too.

This is very fair point, the longer Bitcoin exists for and continues to trend upwards, the longer investors should be willing to invest for. Sometimes I forget that in late 2013 and early 2014, investors would be betting on asset that's only existed for 4/5 years with only two notable cycles of bull market and subsequent correction. Now in 2020, Bitcoin is 10 years old, therefore it's a lot more realistic to think investors will be investing for 5 years minimum, maybe even 10 years, though based on cycles I'd assume 4/5 more so.

Also in the time when you got into Bitcoin, two bull market cycles isn't exactly a pattern, but more a statistical co-incidence. Now we are more clearly entering a third cycle, this is confirmation of a distinct pattern of Bitcoin's price history. At least from the statistical standpoint of two being co-incidence, three being minimum requirements for a pattern. With this in mind, maybe we won't see such panic selling if price breaks below $16-18K, as was largely the case with the -35% correction in January 2017 from ATH levels.

Either way, the economic factors at the moment could still play a major role: vaccine or no vaccine, US political uncertainty, an over-extended stock market...

Yes.. likely it is fair to elaborate on the point a bit, and your clarification does seem to largely capture what I was intending to communicate in terms of having a longer term investment plan that allows you to ride out various 4 year periods that might have large corrections contained therein.

You likely know my story of getting into bitcoin in late 2013 and starting my buying into bitcoin at that particular top... and I started with at least a 1-2 year investment thesis, and intention to learn about bitcoin while I was dollar cost averaging into it and of course considering that my investment thesis into bitcoin could have a much longer term. 

I think that these days the investment thesis into bitcoin is even stronger than it was in late 2013 - and therefore, it is much more reasonable to come into bitcoin with presumptions of a longer investment timeline of 4 years or more and even 10 years or more would be even better in terms of some people just not being able to lump sum into bitcoin or any other investment.  Many young people tend to take 20, 30, 40 or more years to build their investment portfolio in which they are able to plan to live off in their retirement.. and surely, some of those investment theses do not play out too well.  I feel real lucky with my own plans, but I had already around 25 years of building my investment portfolio before getting into bitcoin, so in that regard, I had already built up a lump sum that I could have put into bitcoin, and largely ended up putting into bitcoin in a dollar cost averaging way over the first year of my investment into BTC (which was mostly put in during the whole year of 2014).

So in reference to being down on my investment, I was largely down on my investment for about 2.5 years, until about mid 2016, and my various first purchases into bitcoin did not become profitable until about 3.25 years afterwards - but I had dollar cost averaged down the costs of that first purchase - so there can be various ways of calculating and considering whether profitable on paper (whether choosing to cash out or just continue to plan for cashing out at later dates - thus paper profits or paper losses).

You say this, but really I think you mean none of us care that much about buying tops. Mainly because we're not throwing all our money into a potential peak, but merely averaging more in right? Those who are currently buying parabolic prices aren't really doing so for the long-term, instead hoping price will continue upwards. If not, they will sell. They always do. This is exactly why we have 25-35% corrections in bull markets, because people buy the tops only to sell the bottoms - to enthusiasts like us.

Most investors stop caring about "what it could be worth in 4 years" once they are already down 25% on their investment.

To me, it's all about your current exposure and investment goals. I always like to say, if you don't own any BTC at all, now is a good time to buy. There should always be a greater sense of urgency for nocoiners.

But if you've already been accumulating for a while, if you're not too far from the number of BTC you eventually want, then you more so have the luxury of waiting for that brutal shakeout that might be around the corner.

Those people that have been through with that price won't have to worry. It's a piece of cake to see bitcoin from $19k drops to $16k. The earlier versions of the dump were much worrying than this.
While others are still looking for a chance to buy under $10k, investors who have seen an opportunity at the price of this recent dump are doing good.

When bitcoin dropped below $4000 and it recovers, that builds the confidence of the people to bitcoin already, so if it dump now, they will still expect it to rise, only the new ones who got FOMO will panic and I believe day by day people will mature and will eventually understand the nature of bitcoin market.

I'm not making fun, I'm merely reminding everyone that many missed the golden opportunity, and don't wait! Below $10,000 might never ever return, BUT buy below 2017's ATH while it's there.

Yes. This correction is stronger honestly and it's not that showing any negative signs that it is going to go further and have more dips soon. This time it's a correction.
Before, when there's a correction the community looks sad and a bit of disappointed. Not those who have been in the community and investing for a very long time but mostly the newbies and mid time holders. But as you see, everyone likes it as it corrects.