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Topic: Can Marine Le Pen win? - page 4. (Read 4510 times)

legendary
Activity: 3346
Merit: 1352
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
February 28, 2017, 09:22:51 PM
#51
In the US presidential elections, the opinion polls had it very close. According to the polls, Hillary had a lead of only around 2% or 3% during the last week of the elections. But in France it is different. The other candidates are polling around 20 points more than Le Pen in the second round.

We're not on the last week before elections, and the polls at 2 months before were showing spreads like Mrs. Clinton 46%, Mr. Trump 39%.
At Iowa, the spread went from 2.5% at last poll to 10% of actual result or Wisconsin giving on the last polls Mrs. Clinton an 8% advantage being the electoral result of 0.5% on Mr. Trump's favor.
So, yes, polls can't predict much and can fail for a large margin. Being FN way worse than Mr. Trump, I wouldn't be surprised if the error margin was somewhere between 10 to 30 pp.

In the rust belt states such as Wisconsin and Michigan, they got it completely wrong. No one expected Trump to sweep the rust belt (with the exception of Minnesota and Illinois). Can this repeat in France?
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1000
February 28, 2017, 06:59:22 PM
#50
In the US presidential elections, the opinion polls had it very close. According to the polls, Hillary had a lead of only around 2% or 3% during the last week of the elections. But in France it is different. The other candidates are polling around 20 points more than Le Pen in the second round.

We're not on the last week before elections, and the polls at 2 months before were showing spreads like Mrs. Clinton 46%, Mr. Trump 39%.
At Iowa, the spread went from 2.5% at last poll to 10% of actual result or Wisconsin giving on the last polls Mrs. Clinton an 8% advantage being the electoral result of 0.5% on Mr. Trump's favor.
So, yes, polls can't predict much and can fail for a large margin. Being FN way worse than Mr. Trump, I wouldn't be surprised if the error margin was somewhere between 10 to 30 pp.
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 529
February 28, 2017, 06:39:45 PM
#49
Those two things are so highly unrelated that I think it's pretty funny that you attempted to say that they my saying of "abortion is murder" fits the saying "You're making a genocide everytime you masturbate"
I'm going to skip the part about you saying you don't want to debate / discuss with me as you simply went on to speak more into it, so please make sure next time to not contradict yourself.
That's not a discussion or a debate, it's like 2 people talking about the same blue painting, one seeing it blue and the other seeing it red. There is nothing to discuss as it's a question of one being able to understand the difference between reality and imagination, and the other not being able to do so.

How could I discuss with someone believing that an embryo is a baby? While there is no brain, no neuronal activity, no nerves... Nothing...
And please don't talk about abortion at 8 months, there is no European country where it is legal unless incredible medical problems.
Otherwise abortion is made when the embryo is not bigger than a bean. It has nothing that could qualify it as a living being.

Maybe I was a bit harsh saying you have no reasoning. It's just that your "reasoning" is based on assumptions so false that it doesn't matter how brilliantly you can conduct it.
sr. member
Activity: 994
Merit: 257
February 28, 2017, 06:18:44 PM
#48
I think she is going to win, her support among the population is growing every day while the opposition is unable to find a way to stop it, and those are the number given to us by the news media which means Le Pen is a lot closer or even above the opposition at the moment.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1285
Flying Hellfish is a Commie
February 28, 2017, 05:55:05 PM
#47
You also can't go ahead and say that being against abortion is something that doesn't make her a feminist, that's something that people believe today which is horrid. You have to understand that you're killing a child when you commit an abortion and people don't support such an action, so it would simple to see her be opposed to this on those grounds. I understand women have the right or should have the right to commit this, but wouldn't that constitute as a murder?

Please provide some more sources on some of your claims relating to Le Pen and MAYBE I'll take you a bit more serious on your horrid attitude towards how feminism is today, as this isn't real feminism and is just a war against men / white males / and so on.

I can't discuss with someone believing that :/

It's like saying "you're making a genocide everytime you masturbate".
That's a nonsense, if you believe abortion is murder you're just an idiot and you're EXACTLY the reason why feminism is still needed.
Feminism isn't war against men, it's war against men that want to impose their non-logical reasoning and arbitrary values to women.
And that's exactly what you seem to be.


For the sources:
Here is the report FN voted against, indeed voting against measures implemented to reach equal wage seems VERY FEMINIST
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-//EP//TEXT+REPORT+A8-2015-0015+0+DOC+XML+V0//FR


Those two things are so highly unrelated that I think it's pretty funny that you attempted to say that they my saying of "abortion is murder" fits the saying "You're making a genocide everytime you masturbate"
I'm going to skip the part about you saying you don't want to debate / discuss with me as you simply went on to speak more into it, so please make sure next time to not contradict yourself. Now going back on topic with all of this, a Sperm cell when it comes out of the Penis is just sperm coming out of the penis, that's not a fully grown baby inside of a women's womb. Sorry, just attempting to debunk your horrible attempt at a claim.

If you don't feel abortion is murder, like you've went ahead and stated, right before I'm about to give birth I could go ahead and stab the baby to death in my stomach and this wouldn't be murder under your same thinking. As I personally don't think that you acknowledge the baby as a human being when it is in the stomach of the mother who is carrying it.

Please go ahead and find me some information on "MEN WHO WANT TO IMPOSE NON-LOGICAL REASONING AND ARBITRARY VALUES TO WOMEN" and don't bring my claim of abortion in, as that's something in which you can't say is without logic and reasoning behind it on my part. I'm a man in the world who doesn't want to allow innocent children to die in the womb and I don't think that's so horrible.

I do agree with abortion occuring for rape victims, other sexual victims and so on but that doesn't seem like the claim you're attempting to battle here so that seems like a waste of time in it.

I also highly doubt you read this report that you linked me too (http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-//EP//TEXT+REPORT+A8-2015-0015+0+DOC+XML+V0//FR) so I went through the liberty of looking at the bottom and looking through the votes and it doesn't seem that Le Pen voted on it and I don't know any of the members of the NF off the top of my head so you may want to get some more data and evidence.

Gosh, wasn't that fun?


legendary
Activity: 1245
Merit: 1004
February 28, 2017, 05:53:23 PM
#46
Their party won a few mayor seats, and in all these cities were a lot of polemics.

One of these mayors decided to register and make a file of all dog owners along with the dog DNA.
If a dog poop is found on the street, it will be DNA analyzed and the dog owner will receive a fine.

And so on... Just imagine if they're in charge of the country. Massive files.

It just shows how these people intend to conduct the country. They were never in charge, they don't know how this works.

For these reasons, I don't think they'll win.

LOL dogpile. Indeed, the french revolution has not happened for something like that as an outcome.
There seems to be no hightened demand on fascism or "Frexit" on the rather laissez passer average population.
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 529
February 28, 2017, 04:08:56 PM
#45

Won't happen. And that's a small disappointment for anyone interested in politics.


Anyone interested in politics but without a brain ^.^

Anyone has any rational reason to vote Le Pen?
Cause on the 24 pages of her "program" there isn't much to save...
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 529
February 28, 2017, 04:07:28 PM
#44
You also can't go ahead and say that being against abortion is something that doesn't make her a feminist, that's something that people believe today which is horrid. You have to understand that you're killing a child when you commit an abortion and people don't support such an action, so it would simple to see her be opposed to this on those grounds. I understand women have the right or should have the right to commit this, but wouldn't that constitute as a murder?

Please provide some more sources on some of your claims relating to Le Pen and MAYBE I'll take you a bit more serious on your horrid attitude towards how feminism is today, as this isn't real feminism and is just a war against men / white males / and so on.

I can't discuss with someone believing that :/

It's like saying "you're making a genocide everytime you masturbate".
That's a nonsense, if you believe abortion is murder you're just an idiot and you're EXACTLY the reason why feminism is still needed.
Feminism isn't war against men, it's war against men that want to impose their non-logical reasoning and arbitrary values to women.
And that's exactly what you seem to be.


For the sources:
Here is the report FN voted against, indeed voting against measures implemented to reach equal wage seems VERY FEMINIST
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-//EP//TEXT+REPORT+A8-2015-0015+0+DOC+XML+V0//FR
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 529
February 28, 2017, 04:01:14 PM
#43
What do you call the native French?
You're a native French when your parents were French? Your grandparents? When you're French since the Revolution?

Native French is similar to native American. We call someone native American, if he is having a certain quantum of Amerindian blood. Same with the term "native French". Anyone with ethnic French blood is native French.
French is not an Ethnic group. That's why I'm asking what do you call a native French.

We say native Americans because it makes sense as they developped on their side of the world in a genetically slightly different way.
But what do you call French native?
legendary
Activity: 2464
Merit: 1145
February 28, 2017, 06:39:18 AM
#42
I personally think she has a high chance of winning based on the current state of France as it is now, it's a place where many refugees arrived in and have made France a crime ridden area. I'm not saying the refugees caused all of this but it's a good climate for someone like her to go in and win an election.

She is also someone who is well liked by the PEOPLE and hated by the politicians on the other side based on how fierce she is. I think she is real feminist based on the type of way she really fights for womens rights, unlike the bullshit womens march and the whole hating men thing here in the United States.

AHAHAHAHAHAH
xD

Le Pen a feminist? xD
Yeah and I'm Marry Popins!

She's not a feminist. Here whole "feminist position" is against immigration as is her economical speech, her political speech, her educational speech etc...

No matter if she's right or wrong to fight immigration, you can't say she's a feminist. She's against abortion, against family planning and she voted NO against a moral text at the European Parliament that was not a harsh text but a simple one stating that abortion should be a universal right for women.

YEAH! A true feminist indeed.

On her program of 24 pages, the word women appears twice. Feminism at best.

You're really a bright one bud, I've never seen someone who fully believes without an issue that the new wave of feminism today is actual and real feminism. She was going to be forced to wear a headscarf to visit  Lebanon's leader and when this news was discovered she cancelled the meeting as she wasen't going to do this.

You can perceive that in one of two ways, a publicity stunt in order to garner more support from nationalistic French supporters or a way to advocate for womens rights in the Muslim world as they're forced to cover themselves.

You also can't go ahead and say that being against abortion is something that doesn't make her a feminist, that's something that people believe today which is horrid. You have to understand that you're killing a child when you commit an abortion and people don't support such an action, so it would simple to see her be opposed to this on those grounds. I understand women have the right or should have the right to commit this, but wouldn't that constitute as a murder?

Please provide some more sources on some of your claims relating to Le Pen and MAYBE I'll take you a bit more serious on your horrid attitude towards how feminism is today, as this isn't real feminism and is just a war against men / white males / and so on.

CNN Article relating to Le Pen Headscarf - http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/21/europe/marine-le-pen-headscarf-lebanon-grand-mufti/

Yeah abortion is only murder in sub sahara africa and the USA Smiley
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
February 28, 2017, 03:51:33 AM
#41
I dont trust opinion polls any longer i think its best to see how the voting goes during the elections. The polls has been wrong, so  very wrong on two big elections last year. Its reputation has been marred in the dirt.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 511
February 28, 2017, 03:47:55 AM
#40
I don't think she'e gonna win because not enough people are experiencing what her voters motivate to vote for her.

The troubles just aren't big enough for the greater portion of the nation to unite behind a righwing politician. The greater portion has socialist employers, or are one themselves, so they'd be crazy to jeopardize their position in support of an oposition to what fills their bankaccounts every month.

Won't happen. And that's a small disappointment for anyone interested in politics.
 


Personally I hope not.
But who knows. In the past, much surveys had been wrong ... as in poland, to the Brexit or in the US.
RJX
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1003
February 28, 2017, 03:40:33 AM
#39
I don't think she'e gonna win because not enough people are experiencing what her voters motivate to vote for her.

The troubles just aren't big enough for the greater portion of the nation to unite behind a righwing politician. The greater portion has socialist employers, or are one themselves, so they'd be crazy to jeopardize their position in support of an oposition to what fills their bankaccounts every month.

Won't happen. And that's a small disappointment for anyone interested in politics.



 
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1285
Flying Hellfish is a Commie
February 28, 2017, 02:19:03 AM
#38
I personally think she has a high chance of winning based on the current state of France as it is now, it's a place where many refugees arrived in and have made France a crime ridden area. I'm not saying the refugees caused all of this but it's a good climate for someone like her to go in and win an election.

She is also someone who is well liked by the PEOPLE and hated by the politicians on the other side based on how fierce she is. I think she is real feminist based on the type of way she really fights for womens rights, unlike the bullshit womens march and the whole hating men thing here in the United States.

AHAHAHAHAHAH
xD

Le Pen a feminist? xD
Yeah and I'm Marry Popins!

She's not a feminist. Here whole "feminist position" is against immigration as is her economical speech, her political speech, her educational speech etc...

No matter if she's right or wrong to fight immigration, you can't say she's a feminist. She's against abortion, against family planning and she voted NO against a moral text at the European Parliament that was not a harsh text but a simple one stating that abortion should be a universal right for women.

YEAH! A true feminist indeed.

On her program of 24 pages, the word women appears twice. Feminism at best.

You're really a bright one bud, I've never seen someone who fully believes without an issue that the new wave of feminism today is actual and real feminism. She was going to be forced to wear a headscarf to visit  Lebanon's leader and when this news was discovered she cancelled the meeting as she wasen't going to do this.

You can perceive that in one of two ways, a publicity stunt in order to garner more support from nationalistic French supporters or a way to advocate for womens rights in the Muslim world as they're forced to cover themselves.

You also can't go ahead and say that being against abortion is something that doesn't make her a feminist, that's something that people believe today which is horrid. You have to understand that you're killing a child when you commit an abortion and people don't support such an action, so it would simple to see her be opposed to this on those grounds. I understand women have the right or should have the right to commit this, but wouldn't that constitute as a murder?

Please provide some more sources on some of your claims relating to Le Pen and MAYBE I'll take you a bit more serious on your horrid attitude towards how feminism is today, as this isn't real feminism and is just a war against men / white males / and so on.

CNN Article relating to Le Pen Headscarf - http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/21/europe/marine-le-pen-headscarf-lebanon-grand-mufti/
legendary
Activity: 3346
Merit: 1352
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
February 27, 2017, 09:39:40 PM
#37
What do you call the native French?
You're a native French when your parents were French? Your grandparents? When you're French since the Revolution?

Native French is similar to native American. We call someone native American, if he is having a certain quantum of Amerindian blood. Same with the term "native French". Anyone with ethnic French blood is native French.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
February 27, 2017, 01:53:33 PM
#36
I personally think she has a high chance of winning based on the current state of France as it is now, it's a place where many refugees arrived in and have made France a crime ridden area. I'm not saying the refugees caused all of this but it's a good climate for someone like her to go in and win an election.

She is also someone who is well liked by the PEOPLE and hated by the politicians on the other side based on how fierce she is. I think she is real feminist based on the type of way she really fights for womens rights, unlike the bullshit womens march and the whole hating men thing here in the United States.

lol. Her chances are very low (2nd round of the election) and France isn't a crime ridden area. Based on mathematics, it's NOT a place where many refugees arrived. She just want you to believe that.

I don't understand how you can say she is a feminist (she is against abortion..).

Thanks for having a brain too.

Moreover I'd like to add that based on mathematics there isn't a single European countries where high violences are on the rise.
Migrants or no migrants.

The highest rape rate in Europe is Sweden yeah... And yeah Sweden has lots of migrants... But you have to modify the figures. Not because "it doesn't suit my libtards ideologies" but because of Swedish legislation. In Sweden if a woman is raped my her husband or a girl by her father for the whole year, it's not considered as one rape but as 365 rapes. It's the only country in Europe counting like that and that's why rape rate is so high. Because rapes occurs 90% of the time not in the street by strangers but in the house by family (dad, husband, father in law, mother, sister...). So OF COURSE Sweden is the number one country by rape rate. If you don't believe me just check Swedish legislation, that's how they count.
Thank you very much for the answer! It makes all the difference. I am no expert on Sweden and therefore could not understand where the country pretty quiet with the mentality that the number of rapes? A typical example of manipulative statistics.

Yeah, and the problem is that it's true for lots of other things...
For example you've got countries that will count "lethal crimes" as one per death while other will count them as one per murderer. Which is obviously not the same thing!
You got to keep an eye on HOW people and legislation define the crimes, otherwise you're comparing things that are just... Too much different.
In this respect, I am always surprised when people say that the country is all right, the economy is on the rise. GDP is growing, and I and my friends are living worse and earn less money. This is probably the same. A different approach to statistics.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
February 27, 2017, 01:46:38 PM
#35
I personally think she has a high chance of winning based on the current state of France as it is now, it's a place where many refugees arrived in and have made France a crime ridden area. I'm not saying the refugees caused all of this but it's a good climate for someone like her to go in and win an election.

She is also someone who is well liked by the PEOPLE and hated by the politicians on the other side based on how fierce she is. I think she is real feminist based on the type of way she really fights for womens rights, unlike the bullshit womens march and the whole hating men thing here in the United States.

lol. Her chances are very low (2nd round of the election) and France isn't a crime ridden area. Based on mathematics, it's NOT a place where many refugees arrived. She just want you to believe that.

I don't understand how you can say she is a feminist (she is against abortion..).

Thanks for having a brain too.

Moreover I'd like to add that based on mathematics there isn't a single European countries where high violences are on the rise.
Migrants or no migrants.

The highest rape rate in Europe is Sweden yeah... And yeah Sweden has lots of migrants... But you have to modify the figures. Not because "it doesn't suit my libtards ideologies" but because of Swedish legislation. In Sweden if a woman is raped my her husband or a girl by her father for the whole year, it's not considered as one rape but as 365 rapes. It's the only country in Europe counting like that and that's why rape rate is so high. Because rapes occurs 90% of the time not in the street by strangers but in the house by family (dad, husband, father in law, mother, sister...). So OF COURSE Sweden is the number one country by rape rate. If you don't believe me just check Swedish legislation, that's how they count.
Thank you very much for the answer! It makes all the difference. I am no expert on Sweden and therefore could not understand where the country pretty quiet with the mentality that the number of rapes? A typical example of manipulative statistics.

Yeah, and the problem is that it's true for lots of other things...
For example you've got countries that will count "lethal crimes" as one per death while other will count them as one per murderer. Which is obviously not the same thing!
You got to keep an eye on HOW people and legislation define the crimes, otherwise you're comparing things that are just... Too much different.
member
Activity: 94
Merit: 10
February 27, 2017, 01:09:53 PM
#34
I personally think she has a high chance of winning based on the current state of France as it is now, it's a place where many refugees arrived in and have made France a crime ridden area. I'm not saying the refugees caused all of this but it's a good climate for someone like her to go in and win an election.

She is also someone who is well liked by the PEOPLE and hated by the politicians on the other side based on how fierce she is. I think she is real feminist based on the type of way she really fights for womens rights, unlike the bullshit womens march and the whole hating men thing here in the United States.

lol. Her chances are very low (2nd round of the election) and France isn't a crime ridden area. Based on mathematics, it's NOT a place where many refugees arrived. She just want you to believe that.

I don't understand how you can say she is a feminist (she is against abortion..).

Thanks for having a brain too.

Moreover I'd like to add that based on mathematics there isn't a single European countries where high violences are on the rise.
Migrants or no migrants.

The highest rape rate in Europe is Sweden yeah... And yeah Sweden has lots of migrants... But you have to modify the figures. Not because "it doesn't suit my libtards ideologies" but because of Swedish legislation. In Sweden if a woman is raped my her husband or a girl by her father for the whole year, it's not considered as one rape but as 365 rapes. It's the only country in Europe counting like that and that's why rape rate is so high. Because rapes occurs 90% of the time not in the street by strangers but in the house by family (dad, husband, father in law, mother, sister...). So OF COURSE Sweden is the number one country by rape rate. If you don't believe me just check Swedish legislation, that's how they count.
Thank you very much for the answer! It makes all the difference. I am no expert on Sweden and therefore could not understand where the country pretty quiet with the mentality that the number of rapes? A typical example of manipulative statistics.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
February 27, 2017, 01:00:58 PM
#33
I personally think she has a high chance of winning based on the current state of France as it is now, it's a place where many refugees arrived in and have made France a crime ridden area. I'm not saying the refugees caused all of this but it's a good climate for someone like her to go in and win an election.

She is also someone who is well liked by the PEOPLE and hated by the politicians on the other side based on how fierce she is. I think she is real feminist based on the type of way she really fights for womens rights, unlike the bullshit womens march and the whole hating men thing here in the United States.

lol. Her chances are very low (2nd round of the election) and France isn't a crime ridden area. Based on mathematics, it's NOT a place where many refugees arrived. She just want you to believe that.

I don't understand how you can say she is a feminist (she is against abortion..).

Thanks for having a brain too.

Moreover I'd like to add that based on mathematics there isn't a single European countries where high violences are on the rise.
Migrants or no migrants.

The highest rape rate in Europe is Sweden yeah... And yeah Sweden has lots of migrants... But you have to modify the figures. Not because "it doesn't suit my libtards ideologies" but because of Swedish legislation. In Sweden if a woman is raped my her husband or a girl by her father for the whole year, it's not considered as one rape but as 365 rapes. It's the only country in Europe counting like that and that's why rape rate is so high. Because rapes occurs 90% of the time not in the street by strangers but in the house by family (dad, husband, father in law, mother, sister...). So OF COURSE Sweden is the number one country by rape rate. If you don't believe me just check Swedish legislation, that's how they count.
member
Activity: 94
Merit: 10
February 27, 2017, 12:55:49 PM
#32
I personally think she has a high chance of winning based on the current state of France as it is now, it's a place where many refugees arrived in and have made France a crime ridden area. I'm not saying the refugees caused all of this but it's a good climate for someone like her to go in and win an election.

She is also someone who is well liked by the PEOPLE and hated by the politicians on the other side based on how fierce she is. I think she is real feminist based on the type of way she really fights for womens rights, unlike the bullshit womens march and the whole hating men thing here in the United States.

lol. Her chances are very low (2nd round of the election) and France isn't a crime ridden area. Based on mathematics, it's NOT a place where many refugees arrived. She just want you to believe that.

I don't understand how you can say she is a feminist (she is against abortion..).
It seems to me that she's no feminist, though any woman in the depths of his soul feminist. Marie Le pen just bankrupt the leader of the party and is now trying to win elections to get rich. I am sure that for money she will go under Putin. Fools the French who will vote for it.
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