Topic: [CLOSED] BTC Guild - Pays TxFees+NMC, Stratum, VarDiff, Private Servers - page 315. (Read 903150 times)
April 15, 2013, 02:07:34 AM
Eleuthria, any chance that you might publish estimates of the pool "luck" rate somewhere on the site (maybe the pool stats page might be a good place)??
April 15, 2013, 01:18:40 AM
ALL PPLNS users, you can thank me for those 5 blocks in the last 20 minutes. At 10:02 I started moving off PPLNS and finished moving off by 10:17. In the last 19 minutes the pool found 5 blocks after going dry for almost 1.5 hours.
What are the chances of that OOC
If it wasn't bad luck I would be running out buying lotto tickets
Gambler's Fallacy What are the chances of that OOC
If it wasn't bad luck I would be running out buying lotto tickets
Gamblers Fallacy would indicate that I should stay on PPLNS because we hit such a bad luck streak that naturally a good luck streak is due to even out the odds (like if we had 20 red on roulette in a row then a black has to come soon). The reality is that it is ASSUMED that each week's luck is independent of previous iterations. Observed reality from my perspective is that I am cursed. I am adding these data points to show there is correlation between my miners and a pools luck (one that exceeds mere statistical chance).
OOC sorry didn't mean to give you homework.
Back on topic I will say it stability has been nice since the DDoS (on stratum anyhow).
April 15, 2013, 01:03:58 AM
ALL PPLNS users, you can thank me for those 5 blocks in the last 20 minutes. At 10:02 I started moving off PPLNS and finished moving off by 10:17. In the last 19 minutes the pool found 5 blocks after going dry for almost 1.5 hours.
What are the chances of that OOC
If it wasn't bad luck I would be running out buying lotto tickets
Gambler's Fallacy What are the chances of that OOC
If it wasn't bad luck I would be running out buying lotto tickets
April 15, 2013, 12:52:10 AM
ALL PPLNS users, you can thank me for those 5 blocks in the last 20 minutes. At 10:02 I started moving off PPLNS and finished moving off by 10:17. In the last 19 minutes the pool found 5 blocks after going dry for almost 1.5 hours.
What are the chances of that OOC
I'll check when I get home.What are the chances of that OOC
If it wasn't bad luck I would be running out buying lotto tickets
You should probably sell tickets for a lottery. You'd make a fortune for them.
April 15, 2013, 12:49:47 AM
ALL PPLNS users, you can thank me for those 5 blocks in the last 20 minutes. At 10:02 I started moving off PPLNS and finished moving off by 10:17. In the last 19 minutes the pool found 5 blocks after going dry for almost 1.5 hours.
What are the chances of that OOC
If it wasn't bad luck I would be running out buying lotto tickets
What are the chances of that OOC
If it wasn't bad luck I would be running out buying lotto tickets
Your sacrifice shall not be forgotten
April 15, 2013, 12:20:52 AM
ALL PPLNS users, you can thank me for those 5 blocks in the last 20 minutes. At 10:02 I started moving off PPLNS and finished moving off by 10:17. In the last 19 minutes the pool found 5 blocks after going dry for almost 1.5 hours.
What are the chances of that OOC
If it wasn't bad luck I would be running out buying lotto tickets
What are the chances of that OOC
If it wasn't bad luck I would be running out buying lotto tickets
April 14, 2013, 09:18:52 PM
US-Getwork still having problems due to the sheer volume of connections hitting that server. Miners who are stuck on getwork are encouraged to either upgrade to Stratum or find another pool for getwork. The protocol is only being kept on life support at the moment, so you WILL have downtime on getwork with BTC Guild.
April 14, 2013, 11:47:48 AM
btcguild.com:8332 (getwork server) went down earlier today. As I've stated in the past, getwork is only limited in support these days. It's coming back online now, but users expecting high uptime should be using Stratum by now.
April 14, 2013, 04:59:51 AM
Actually OOC would you be able to put up graph of BTCGuild PPLNS luck for the past week if you have access to the info. I'm curious.
So, BTCGuild's luck for the week was 0.9674326 - this means that for any given run of 436 blocks (BTCGuilds total for the week) you'd expect worse luck only 3.26% of the time.
Ozcoin's luck was worse - they hit 0.9995933, so for any given run of 98 blocks (Ozcoin's total for the week) you'd expect to get worse luck only 0.04% of the time.
Did you mine at Ozcoin during the week, DrG?
I'd love to but I'm a bit busy predicting what the network hashrate
Now that sounds a little narcissistic.
organofcorti,
Have you ever read Asimov's Foundation series? I have often compared you mathematicians here in the BTC community to phsychohistory foundation's. Your real name isn't Hari is it?
Sorry for fueling this OT line.
Sam
os2sam, you're an ass
There's a big difference between what a psychohistorian does and what I do. I'm using very basic college level statistics, and psychohistorians use a very advanced sort of imaginary analysis.
Honestly, anyone who is serious about mining could do what I do. Most pools ops can, just in order to plan for the pool's future. Before I started mining I didn't use most of these techniques - I learned them (with Meni Rosenfelds help) over the past couple of years.
I was mining at OzCoin but the website disconnects and bad stats were driving me nuts. I was mining PPS though because I really feared going back to DGM (I did DGM there for 1 week and made about 50% of earnings thanks to 2 99% CDF blocks in 1 week). So I moved to BTCGuild this week. Stupidly choose PPLNS again (even though I know the last time I did it I had 2 months of bad earnings). In February when I left BTCGuild for OzCoin eleuthria kept talking about how good the luck was. I didn't even want to look at the site to see because it would only make me cry. 2 months of bad luck for me, I leave and less than 12 hours later they start knocking down blocks so fast they had double earnings for 2 days. I was also on BTCGuild back when it was prop and we had that horribly bad streak in 2011 - so bad people started thinking eleuthria was stealing shares - there were several conspiracy threads about that back in the day.
So I guess my stench must linger even after leaving a pool. Either that or I have OzCoin as my backup and I did have to fall back 3 days ago with the DDOS.
So TL:DR - My luck is now guaranteed bad. For those of you who want to mine PPS or those who want to keep difficulty low I am now taking offers to "bomb" pools with my vile miasma
April 14, 2013, 01:46:17 AM
Actually OOC would you be able to put up graph of BTCGuild PPLNS luck for the past week if you have access to the info. I'm curious.
So, BTCGuild's luck for the week was 0.9674326 - this means that for any given run of 436 blocks (BTCGuilds total for the week) you'd expect worse luck only 3.26% of the time.
Ozcoin's luck was worse - they hit 0.9995933, so for any given run of 98 blocks (Ozcoin's total for the week) you'd expect to get worse luck only 0.04% of the time.
Did you mine at Ozcoin during the week, DrG?
I'd love to but I'm a bit busy predicting what the network hashrate
Now that sounds a little narcissistic.
organofcorti,
Have you ever read Asimov's Foundation series? I have often compared you mathematicians here in the BTC community to phsychohistory foundation's. Your real name isn't Hari is it?
Sorry for fueling this OT line.
Sam
os2sam, you're an ass
There's a big difference between what a psychohistorian does and what I do. I'm using very basic college level statistics, and psychohistorians use a very advanced sort of imaginary analysis.
Honestly, anyone who is serious about mining could do what I do. Most pools ops can, just in order to plan for the pool's future. Before I started mining I didn't use most of these techniques - I learned them (with Meni Rosenfelds help) over the past couple of years.
April 13, 2013, 09:53:43 AM
Horrible luck today. I need to be banned from luck based mining.
I really despise the term "luck" in Bitcoin mining, in all areas of life actually, but especially in BTC. Isn't there a more better technical term for random probability than LUCK?
Anyway, what other type of mining is there?
Maybe eleuthria could pay you to mine elsewhere?
DrG,
Maybe you could post your mining schedule so that the rest of us could be on other pools?
I mean I know I'm being a narcisist
Hmm, I think narcissist is the incorrect term here. The proper one escapes me at the moment.
essentially nothing for 8 hours of 22GH mining on a 37 million share block.
So you have 22Ghs of equipment and are going broke? Feel free to send all of your mining hardware to me. That way we can see if your bad LUCK follows you or your mining equipment. May be a worthwhile test, for me anyway.
I'd love to but I'm a bit busy predicting what the network hashrate
Now that sounds a little narcissistic.
organofcorti,
Have you ever read Asimov's Foundation series? I have often compared you mathematicians here in the BTC community to phsychohistory foundation's. Your real name isn't Hari is it?
Sorry for fueling this OT line.
Sam
April 13, 2013, 03:11:33 AM
Yes know about your "little project". Actually I sat there staring at the forecast 2 weeks ago with a caculator and 2 excel sheets open calculating thing - felt like I was back in my stats class
Perhaps I should heed Meni's advice and split the babies up. I was hoping my ASICs would be here by now and I could have moved onto enjoying my life and not constantly checking GPU temps
Perhaps I should heed Meni's advice and split the babies up. I was hoping my ASICs would be here by now and I could have moved onto enjoying my life and not constantly checking GPU temps
April 13, 2013, 02:36:28 AM
Actually OOC would you be able to put up graph of BTCGuild PPLNS luck for the past week if you have access to the info. I'm curious.
I'd love to but I'm a bit busy predicting what the network hashrate will be once GPU and FPGA owners have all upgraded to ASICS.
I will update the weekly pool stats will be updated tomorrow, check then.
If you want to look at previous weeks: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/search?q=%22weekly+pool+and+network%22
Edit: For your "luck" problem, this thread by Meni Rosenfeld might be helpful: "Mine on multiple pools to reduce variance"
April 13, 2013, 02:07:35 AM
Actually OOC would you be able to put up graph of BTCGuild PPLNS luck for the past week if you have access to the info. I'm curious.
April 13, 2013, 02:05:23 AM
Horrible luck today. 50BTC has as many blocks in the last 6 hours with only 40% of the hashrate. Even Bitminter is close as far as blocks found. I need to be banned from luck based mining. This is why I don't join lotto pools - I would screw my friends over.
Maybe eleuthria could pay you to mine elsewhere?
It's not the first time I posted the possibility of that. I mean I know I'm being a narcisist to think I can control the mining world but I plotted out the data in an excel file and it was disturbing how close to 1 the r factor was. I jump on a PPLNS or DGM pool and they go from positive luck to negative. I even posted a pic I think showing BTC Guild finding 30 blocks a round and the round I join with just 1 round before closing it only has 1 block lol.
I'll shut up now before I get death threats.
But I will entertain offers from pool ops to sabotage other pools (I did it to Bitminter last week for that 37 million block). Yes, I went to Bitminter for the first time, pointed all my rigs and got essentially nothing for 8 hours of 22GH mining on a 37 million share block.
April 13, 2013, 01:30:49 AM
Horrible luck today. 50BTC has as many blocks in the last 6 hours with only 40% of the hashrate. Even Bitminter is close as far as blocks found. I need to be banned from luck based mining. This is why I don't join lotto pools - I would screw my friends over.
Maybe eleuthria could pay you to mine elsewhere?
April 13, 2013, 01:29:41 AM
Horrible luck today. 50BTC has as many blocks in the last 6 hours with only 40% of the hashrate. Even Bitminter is close as far as blocks found. I need to be banned from luck based mining. This is why I don't join lotto pools - I would screw my friends over.
April 12, 2013, 10:52:19 PM
I'm having the following problem:
I am an early user of BTC Guild (< 1000) and I did not set an email address.
I want to change my wallet address, but it says I have to confirm it by email.
So I went to set an email... and it says I have to confirm it by email.
How can I confirm my email by email when I have no email?
I am an early user of BTC Guild (< 1000) and I did not set an email address.
I want to change my wallet address, but it says I have to confirm it by email.
So I went to set an email... and it says I have to confirm it by email.
How can I confirm my email by email when I have no email?
I think I found the problem, some old accounts had the email field as empty, rather than NULL. Try again and it should work
.That's why they pay you the big bits! Thanks, it worked!
April 12, 2013, 10:20:16 PM
I'm having the following problem:
I am an early user of BTC Guild (< 1000) and I did not set an email address.
I want to change my wallet address, but it says I have to confirm it by email.
So I went to set an email... and it says I have to confirm it by email.
How can I confirm my email by email when I have no email?
I am an early user of BTC Guild (< 1000) and I did not set an email address.
I want to change my wallet address, but it says I have to confirm it by email.
So I went to set an email... and it says I have to confirm it by email.
How can I confirm my email by email when I have no email?
I think I found the problem, some old accounts had the email field as empty, rather than NULL. Try again and it should work
. April 12, 2013, 10:05:24 PM
I'm having the following problem:
I am an early user of BTC Guild (< 1000) and I did not set an email address.
I want to change my wallet address, but it says I have to confirm it by email.
So I went to set an email... and it says I have to confirm it by email.
How can I confirm my email by email when I have no email?
I am an early user of BTC Guild (< 1000) and I did not set an email address.
I want to change my wallet address, but it says I have to confirm it by email.
So I went to set an email... and it says I have to confirm it by email.
How can I confirm my email by email when I have no email?
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