Topic: [CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx - page 45. (Read 316363 times)

Thanks, I have a few more questions though if you don't mind:

Why so low? it was ฿0.00012579 in Feb, also where can I find that information from?

Should be around 0.000011666 per share for March

Any idea when next dividends will be paid and how much?

@Rational

As for my 1-2 P/E valuation - I tried to sell my own web startup, and also considered buying a few. Cannot find the original sources now, but a quick google reveals those:
http://www.entrepreneurs-journey.com/266/how-to-sell-a-website-how-much-is-your-website-worth/ (they mention 2-3)
or you can check for how high the sites on Flippa go:
https://flippa.com/just-sold?revenue_min=2000&page=1&sort_col=price&sort_dir=desc

Now, 1-2 P/E happens when the owner leaves the venture. Ventures with active owners can be priced much higher - that's why one of my questions was whether Eric plans to just fix the bugs/issues ("cash cow" - lower valuation), or continue the development of S.DICE. He offered some more insight into the current work being put into S.DICE, so you have now more datapoints to arrive at the proper valuation


Another thing, is calculating the basis for "E". It's true that we cannot exactly say whether the whales will come back. I can easily imagine S.DICE getting some national coverage and bringing in some more whales. I assumed they wouldn't come back, you assume they will. I guess in reality the number is somewhere in-between. Again - now you have some more datapoints thanks to this discussion

Finally, you use S.DICE earnings as a valuation method. What you should be using in case of a casino is *expected earnings*. While earnings can vary a lot, as we've seen last month and in october, only expected earnings tell you the real story.

In this case, the story is simple. The traffic was flat (btc-wise) in Sept-Nov, then Jan-Feb whales appeared and it exploded, and now they're gone and it's flat again (btc-wise, far from flat usd-wise).
To show you how crude is your method of valuation, imagine that S.DICE has an astonishing success in the upcoming 6 months (like - doubles the turnover every month). On the other hand, it has a terrible luck, and loses money every single month. According to your valuation method, this would make S.DICE worth zero, according to my method, S.DICE would be worth a lot.

Hmm, interesting. What are your security concerns? You can message me directly if you want. I've not heard of this concern w.r.t compressed pubkeys before - I can't immediately see any issues there.

I heard you moved somewhere else however - are you planning on staying a citizen?

Personally, I'm toying with the idea of dropping it soon.

We've been considering the compressed keys for a while now. We have some slight security hesitations, but I believe we will be implementing this eventually, if not for the main addresses then for every new address we'll be creating (and this will be more relevant due to other developments we have in mind...).  It's possible we'll do it for the main addresses as well.

We would ABSOLUTELY LOVE to drop the messaging micropayments and use real messages. We'll absolutely integrate this, and if I can offer some funds to help with that development, I will. I've told Gavin that SD is willing to fund worthy dev projects and have encouraged him to reach out to me if he comes across such a thing.

The messaging potential of Bitcoin is an excellent solution to the SD dust problem, and I'll do whatever I can to assist with that.

1) SatoshiDice is not a US company nor organization, nor is any part of it hosted in the US whatsoever.
2) I do not live in the US, though I am (unfortunately) a US citizen.
3) The couple other private owners are non-US residents and not US citizens.

Here, if anyone's looking for it:
  http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1aumab/i_won_1920_btc_on_satoshi_dice_and_am_not_a_bot/

Thank you for the update Erik. It would also be useful to have some clarity around your (and other owners / operators) residence, visitor and work status with respect to the USA. Could these be considered within the context of :

http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2013/01/coder-charged-for-gambling-software/
and
http://reason.com/archives/2008/05/19/some-bets-are-off

for example ?

As for people still loving MPOE - It's called a "stockholm syndrome" I think It's interesting to hear the big Mircea's vision, sounds quite reasonable.

Eric - as for the whale being you, I prefer to trust mathematics. You'd have to spend around as much on dividends (like 5kBTC?) as you'd earn from the increase of the share price and re-IPO (~0.002 increase times 5M = 10kBTC). It would be a stupid & risky strategy.
As for the guy who recently won - he did a small AMA on reddit.com/r/bitcoin, I think, it's a nice read.

Thanks for the nice polemic, Eric, and MPOE_PR. I'm off for Easter now, cheers.

Since you guys are talking about advertising I thought to post this:

I recently created a page on Wikipedia about SatoshiDice, although it isn't advertising, it could spread the word about the website. However, it takes a lot of time for new pages to be reviewed on Wikipedia, so if you guys could help me edit it and/or get it reviewed I would be very happy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia_talk:Articles_for_creation/Satoshidice

Thanks for the update Erik and keep up the good work!

Would this allow people to send a message without having any payment along with it?

Erik, thanks for the update.

There are some simple things you could do to reduce load on the chain. One is to (re)generate your keys to use point compression. Bitcoinj has supported this for some time and the patch can be backported by fireduck if need be. Even if you don't want to regenerate the wager addresses, the temporary addresses you could use be compressed. And I'd seriously consider regenerating the public wager addresses too. It's like a free 20% saving. The old addresses can of course still work.

Another is not quite ready yet, but when the payment protocol work Gavin is doing completes, you could drop the messaging micropayments and use real messages (with words!). A public commitment to do that work when it's feasible would be great to see.

Halfway down page 66?

reserved.

Erik, Just a quick one to thank you for sharing your thoughts on this.  I appreciate your giving us an update on where you are with these matters and an idea of what's going on behind the scenes.
TF

throwaway and thoughtfan, excellent comments from both of you. I wish all the discussion on BitcoinTalk was of this level

I'll comment on a few points.

1) I do know who one of the whales is, as he recently made himself known to me. I have no idea whether he will return in the future, but there is no reason for him not to. While there have been many wild theories on who or what he is, I'll say that in this case at least reality is far less interesting than the imagination And for the 50,000th time, no the whales aren't me nor anybody who works with me, nor any person doing such deception on behalf of the site in order to puff up numbers in any way whatsoever. Additionally, SD has never and will never run bots on itself, other than for small narrow testing purposes. There was some speculation that the last jackpot winner (~1900ish btc) was an SD bot. Not true at all, and in fact the winner of that contacted me since his payment had gotten delayed. It was fun chatting with him and learning what he plans to do with the money, nothing crazy, just somewhat inspiring and very nice to hear. 

2) The wild exchange rate of Bitcoin is absolutely going to effect SD share price in one way or another. While it seems that SD maintains a reasonable floor of usage in nominal BTC terms, I think if the price of BTC doubles the amount wagered at SD will be lower in BTC terms (though not half). We can call this the "elasticity of wagering" perhaps   In any case, I think people should expect that to some degree, if Bitcoin price skyrockets, the nominal price of shares (whether SD or otherwise) should fall somewhat. Does this mean it's better to invest in BTC than in shares of BTC companies? Not necessarily. It depends on your risk preferences.

3) Contrary to how it may appear, I'm spending a lot of time on SD. Much of this is in the legal world, and in putting a small team together to build it more professionally. These things aren't apparent on the surface, but they're happening. When some of this foundational stuff is in place, the visible aspects of SD will be built up further. While I have increased advertising for SD in the last couple weeks, I am also wary of making the site too high profile too soon. Read into that what you will, but it's done with purpose.

4) This wasn't mentioned in the recent comments here, but has obviously been a hugely hot topic - the matter of SD and "blockchain spam." While in general I believe that altering SD merely to coddle and soothe the blockchain is bad policy (because it enables the community to retain a false sense that the issue of dust/spam is not urgent), I am working on a couple things which will indeed alleviate some of the strain on the blockchain. These things are being done mostly for user experience, so the fact that they take burden off the blockchain is but a bonus. Regardless, hopefully some of the wild critics of SD will be happy with the move, though I assume most will continue launching attacks at me personally, saying I've been consumed by greed and don't care about the community, blah blah blah. I guess if you're not making enemies, you're doing it wrong. My intention though is not to be combative, and while I disagree with the thesis of my opponents, I nevertheless respect (most of) them as members of the community and don't want to cause unneeded angst. I guess this was a long way of saying, SD will be developing in a way that should make some critics somewhat happy. Ultimately, it is a profit-making enterprise and will act in every ethical way toward that end,  and Bitcoin better be able to handle such enterprises.

Cheers,
-Erik

That's correct For every order, MPEx-signed receipt is shown in order details to prove it. Ask/discuss CoinBr further here or on another forum.

Wow, there's someone left?! How do you do it!


Not to detract from what I think is perfectly valid criticism, there have been a few fires to put out. Not just the recent fork which affected everyone, not just the DDoS extravaganza which affected pretty much all the top dogs (MtGox being the most recent inductee in that exclusive club) but also two (or three?) different methods to attempt double-spends that were averted but required some code changing (at least iirc from what was publicly discussed). So I would guess even if not much went into visible marketing a lot of hard work went into strengthening the actual platform, which I'd count as value-adding.


20k or two million a month. A scary figure.


Now I'm curious how this will play out.


Guy's name is Mircea (and MPEx is the exchange, MPOE is either me or the options bot) and his game is building Bitcoin finance, or to quote,


Small investors buying on PTs still reflects in the MPEx liquidity, and in the liquidity of the asset.

IRL the concept of "accredited investor" exists, which basically boils down to "someone who knows enough of this world to be able to protect his own money". Like it or not the truth is that most people don't know enough of this world to be able to survive on their own. Governments have to - it's not a matter of wanting to, they have to - step in and protect the retail/consumer "investor" because otherwise he'll get fleeced, and that fleecing will finance the unsavory elements and their activities, which results in pain across the board.

IRL you are an "accredited investor" by means of owning a lot of USD. It's not practical to verify how much BTC someone owns, and it's also not BTC-ish to do. MP opted to use a simpler and more flexible approach: if you can afford 30 BTC you're big enough to play. People obviously trash and cuss and complain, but this barrier is there for their protection, and it indeed works well to protect them. It also works well to protect everyone else, because as a company if your stock is held by a large number of clueless/impressionable/non committed people you're in for a world of hurt. This point is amply discussed by Buffett, I won't extend this endless post with more quotes but if you wish to look up what WB had to say about investors and pricing for Berkshire you'll see what I mean.


I'd say you made the right choice and thank you for doing it. The more openly things are discussed, the better off everyone will be.