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Topic: [CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx - page 48. (Read 316442 times)

hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 522
Think anyone with half a brain knows it's the expected profits that matter not the actual results (unless there's reason to believe double-spend or something is happening).  Of course that (people with a half a brain) is only a small minority of members here.

Looking at the charts - S.DICE lost about 40% off its peak on something like 1-2k BTC volume. That's less than 5% of the third party holdings, and probably a good estimate for about half the "small investors" that have access to it.

It could be that the smalltimers/shorttermers panicked already and left (at a discount - of course). The whales don't seem to be moving. On this theory the price will remain depressed while the longer term players absorb the short term players' holdings as cheaply as possible, after which trade freezes/price explodes because nobody's selling.

Just a theory, I like armchairing as much as the next gal.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500

Think anyone with half a brain knows it's the expected profits that matter not the actual results (unless there's reason to believe double-spend or something is happening).  Of course that (people with a half a brain) is only a small minority of members here.

In the long run yes, it is the expected profits that matter. But in the short run it is the actual results that determine the dividend payout, and those are not looking so good this month.

Right - which logically shouldn't lower the price by more than the difference the bad luck has made to this month's dividend.  Which is essentially no change given that the price trades in a band much wider than that every day anyway.

The rise in BTC vs USD price is a better reason for the price to drop really.  Not because there's any proven link between BTC price and S.DICE price - but because anyone holding S.DICE who believes BTC is in a bubble should likely sell the S.DICE and convert to USD then buy back in after the (what they believe to be) bubble collapses.  I don't subscribe to that theory myself, but at it has some logic to it.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Think anyone with half a brain knows it's the expected profits that matter not the actual results (unless there's reason to believe double-spend or something is happening).  Of course that (people with a half a brain) is only a small minority of members here.

In the long run yes, it is the expected profits that matter. But in the short run it is the actual results that determine the dividend payout, and those are not looking so good this month.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500

Think anyone with half a brain knows it's the expected profits that matter not the actual results (unless there's reason to believe double-spend or something is happening).  Of course that (people with a half a brain) is only a small minority of members here.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye
vip
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1043
👻
Ouch, S.DICE might have to increase their house edge if this unlucky streak continues
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
Manual verification/payment for such a big sum i guess
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
Is it not paid yet after 48 confirmations?
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
WTF???
less than 1?

Yes. Less than one = Lucky number 0

I think they were pointing out that it is "less than 1" not "less then 1". This is bitcointalk. Anyone is encouraged to spell there their they're, you're your, then than incorrectly as much as possible.
full member
Activity: 153
Merit: 100
Someone hit the less then 1 again.  There goes this months profits.


and the bet amount ?
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
Someone hit the less then 1 again.  There goes this months profits.

less than 1?
hero member
Activity: 763
Merit: 500
Someone hit the less then 1 again.  There goes this months profits.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
guess you could say that S.DICE is some kind of hedge against BTC value not rising fast enough.  Smiley

That is true, sdice has gone up when btc prices were not doing much or going up slowly (2012).

But indeed once bitcoin prices went hyperbolic sdice was not the place to be as it just stagnates in fiat value (2013).

The question for me is, what will sdice do when bitcoin prices fall?

btc = up a little -> sdice up a lot
btc = up a lot -> sdice up a little
btc = down a lot -> sdice down a little ?
btc = down a little -> sdice down a lot ?
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye
How about, SDICE is low because profit is down this month again?

Bitcoin dividends are a large part of asset value.

Most bitcoin 'investors' can't see more than 2 days beyond the next payday. 

Considering how many people were drawn in by the 7% per week scam a few months ago, I agree many are shortsighted.
vip
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1043
👻
guess you could say that S.DICE is some kind of hedge against BTC value not rising fast enough.  Smiley
Not really.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1007
guess you could say that S.DICE is some kind of hedge against BTC value not rising fast enough.  Smiley
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 522
7) From the fact of the price never coming near what it was before a few weeks back when a whole new tranche of shares were sold cheap I'd guess there's still a significant number of shares in the hands of those who at the time bought more than they'd intended to long term with the intention of making a quick buck on the way back up who are now holding something that cost them more than they could currently sell it fo (me, me Wink ) ;

That is a good explanation. That would explain why people are dumping them today. Bought too many, couldn't sell for a profit, but must sell for a loss as the coins/fiat was only temporarily available?

Thanks, that seems a rational explanation why they are so undervalued. Basically a big shareholder selling a lot of shares, still being felt today.

Of course this dumping you're speaking of is happening on dismal volume. S.DICE saw 10k+ days. It's moved from 70ish to 30ish over maybe 1k BTC total. The most probable explanation is that the large holders are just ignoring the panic, and the small timers are working themselves into a tizzy. Which is how markets work irl too, large fish will swallow the small one much more often than the other way around.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 506
Oh darn, I'm no good at this tactical posting...

What I should be saying is 'It's because S.D. is up the spout and all this new legislation is going to hammer the price and close it down and therefore everybody should sell now'....

...at least until my buy order has been filled  Grin
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