Topic: [CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx - page 44. (Read 316442 times)

No divvy for March. SD had a loss.

What's the hold-up on dividend payout? Seems to get later every month. Feb2, Mar4, April...? 5th already...

The site had pretty bad luck in March. and ended up with much lower profits for the month than February.

I plot the site's profits daily here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/satoshi-dice-statistical-analysis-80312

Thanks, I have a few more questions though if you don't mind:

Why so low? it was ฿0.00012579 in Feb, also where can I find that information from?

Should be around 0.000011666 per share for March

Any idea when next dividends will be paid and how much?

@Rational

As for my 1-2 P/E valuation - I tried to sell my own web startup, and also considered buying a few. Cannot find the original sources now, but a quick google reveals those:
http://www.entrepreneurs-journey.com/266/how-to-sell-a-website-how-much-is-your-website-worth/ (they mention 2-3)
or you can check for how high the sites on Flippa go:
https://flippa.com/just-sold?revenue_min=2000&page=1&sort_col=price&sort_dir=desc

Now, 1-2 P/E happens when the owner leaves the venture. Ventures with active owners can be priced much higher - that's why one of my questions was whether Eric plans to just fix the bugs/issues ("cash cow" - lower valuation), or continue the development of S.DICE. He offered some more insight into the current work being put into S.DICE, so you have now more datapoints to arrive at the proper valuation


Another thing, is calculating the basis for "E". It's true that we cannot exactly say whether the whales will come back. I can easily imagine S.DICE getting some national coverage and bringing in some more whales. I assumed they wouldn't come back, you assume they will. I guess in reality the number is somewhere in-between. Again - now you have some more datapoints thanks to this discussion

Finally, you use S.DICE earnings as a valuation method. What you should be using in case of a casino is *expected earnings*. While earnings can vary a lot, as we've seen last month and in october, only expected earnings tell you the real story.

In this case, the story is simple. The traffic was flat (btc-wise) in Sept-Nov, then Jan-Feb whales appeared and it exploded, and now they're gone and it's flat again (btc-wise, far from flat usd-wise).
To show you how crude is your method of valuation, imagine that S.DICE has an astonishing success in the upcoming 6 months (like - doubles the turnover every month). On the other hand, it has a terrible luck, and loses money every single month. According to your valuation method, this would make S.DICE worth zero, according to my method, S.DICE would be worth a lot.

Hmm, interesting. What are your security concerns? You can message me directly if you want. I've not heard of this concern w.r.t compressed pubkeys before - I can't immediately see any issues there.

I heard you moved somewhere else however - are you planning on staying a citizen?

Personally, I'm toying with the idea of dropping it soon.

We've been considering the compressed keys for a while now. We have some slight security hesitations, but I believe we will be implementing this eventually, if not for the main addresses then for every new address we'll be creating (and this will be more relevant due to other developments we have in mind...).  It's possible we'll do it for the main addresses as well.

We would ABSOLUTELY LOVE to drop the messaging micropayments and use real messages. We'll absolutely integrate this, and if I can offer some funds to help with that development, I will. I've told Gavin that SD is willing to fund worthy dev projects and have encouraged him to reach out to me if he comes across such a thing.

The messaging potential of Bitcoin is an excellent solution to the SD dust problem, and I'll do whatever I can to assist with that.

1) SatoshiDice is not a US company nor organization, nor is any part of it hosted in the US whatsoever.
2) I do not live in the US, though I am (unfortunately) a US citizen.
3) The couple other private owners are non-US residents and not US citizens.

Here, if anyone's looking for it:
  http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1aumab/i_won_1920_btc_on_satoshi_dice_and_am_not_a_bot/

Thank you for the update Erik. It would also be useful to have some clarity around your (and other owners / operators) residence, visitor and work status with respect to the USA. Could these be considered within the context of :

http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2013/01/coder-charged-for-gambling-software/
and
http://reason.com/archives/2008/05/19/some-bets-are-off

for example ?

As for people still loving MPOE - It's called a "stockholm syndrome" I think It's interesting to hear the big Mircea's vision, sounds quite reasonable.

Eric - as for the whale being you, I prefer to trust mathematics. You'd have to spend around as much on dividends (like 5kBTC?) as you'd earn from the increase of the share price and re-IPO (~0.002 increase times 5M = 10kBTC). It would be a stupid & risky strategy.
As for the guy who recently won - he did a small AMA on reddit.com/r/bitcoin, I think, it's a nice read.

Thanks for the nice polemic, Eric, and MPOE_PR. I'm off for Easter now, cheers.

Since you guys are talking about advertising I thought to post this:

I recently created a page on Wikipedia about SatoshiDice, although it isn't advertising, it could spread the word about the website. However, it takes a lot of time for new pages to be reviewed on Wikipedia, so if you guys could help me edit it and/or get it reviewed I would be very happy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia_talk:Articles_for_creation/Satoshidice

Thanks for the update Erik and keep up the good work!

Would this allow people to send a message without having any payment along with it?

Erik, thanks for the update.

There are some simple things you could do to reduce load on the chain. One is to (re)generate your keys to use point compression. Bitcoinj has supported this for some time and the patch can be backported by fireduck if need be. Even if you don't want to regenerate the wager addresses, the temporary addresses you could use be compressed. And I'd seriously consider regenerating the public wager addresses too. It's like a free 20% saving. The old addresses can of course still work.

Another is not quite ready yet, but when the payment protocol work Gavin is doing completes, you could drop the messaging micropayments and use real messages (with words!). A public commitment to do that work when it's feasible would be great to see.

Halfway down page 66?

reserved.

Erik, Just a quick one to thank you for sharing your thoughts on this.  I appreciate your giving us an update on where you are with these matters and an idea of what's going on behind the scenes.
TF