Topic: [CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx - page 77. (Read 316448 times)

The Satoshi Dice spreadsheet December sheet cell D3.

From Bloomberg Businessweek:


Any assertions that any particular individual owns Satoshi Dice is a fact not yet in evidence and has not yet been proven. Bloomberg most likely attempted to do some investigative journalism and track down the owner but the domain WHOIS lists PrivacyProtect.org and they were most likely unable to find anyone willing to make a personal statement (see Federal Rules of Evidence 602) that they owned it. Any competent legal counsel would most likely advice a client like this anonymous investor not to make any affirmative assertions of ownership. Consequently, the only fact established in evidence is that Satoshi Dice is owned by an anonymous investor and Bloomberg's reporting is accurate.

Meanwhile, it looks like Satoshi Dice has about 150k of bets so far in Jan and is on track to have volume up in Jan similar to Dec/Nov. Some serious growth!

Any proof of this?


The most intriguing part is your denominator. Where did you pick up 537,375.97 from?


The 90% holder is all but anonymous. How is this an analysis, you're too lazy to get the basic facts straight.


This is perhaps the most insane thing I've ever read on btctalk. And this is saying quite a lot.

No way. That is not how any financial market works. If you place a market buy order, or limit buy order greater than the lowest ask price, you will get filled at the ask. Unless the lowest ask was .039, you got filled much lower than that, at the lowest ask (currently 0.0048).

Fair? If i bid 100 dollars for 3 bitcoins at mtgox, mtgox fills the order for 3 bitcoins at the going rate and i keep the remaining usd.How should it be different? Operator gets a percentage cut of amount used in transaction or a set fee. Not keep whatever is left plus any other fee.

I would dig deeper into that and get your full amount of sahres you can fir the money spent.

I assume that it averages the two orders (liquidity provider and liquidity consumer), which is both standard and fair. Warning should have been given though, given the amount at stake.

Are you saying your buy order did not get the lowest offered shares available? Wtf. The operator keeps the difference?

LOL!!!

I just accidentally brought satoshidice shares on Bitfunder at 0.039 instead of 0.0039.

Wow, that's a stupid mistake but luckily I only lost less than a dollar since I brought 2 shares

While not being a fan of the vices, this does present a fairly finance textbook example of a melt-up due to good news. Let me run through the analysis for the fun of it.

Although December had unusually high earnings of 3.2% (17,206.44888669 /537,375.97) the intriguing part is the strengthening of the SD balance sheet to the tune of about 28,000 BTC retained earnings.

To be conservative we will assume the public float dividend were doubled and paid out to the anonymous investor holding the other 90%. After all, the anonymous investor owns 9x more than the public float and would not want to jeopardize SD's solvency potentially having to shutter it due to bad luck and has probably not taken any dividends since they probably have plenty of cash from the IPO and could probably fly private wherever they want with this type of monthly cash-flow.

This leaves about 25,000 BTC of retained earnings which to exhaust would require about -4.795% negative luck on 550,000 BTC of bets compared to the Dec beginning retained earnings of -2.22%. Assuming the anonymous investor has taken no dividends then the luck probabilities change to -5.11% and -2.29%.

In other words, if you do the probability (some other math whiz can solve this if they feel particularly magnanimous) that SD will exhaust its RE's due to bad luck in the dice game and cease being a going concern then it reveals that solvency risk just plummeted massively causing an increase in the expected discounted future cash flows.





Everything else being equal, this additional 15,500 BTC of retained earnings, makes SD much safer of an investment with a much higher NPV which is already corrected for BTC exchange rate risk.

Consequently, a melt-up in the price is to be expected. What is fairly exceptional is that the issuer did not cancel the IPO's at .0037 or at least move the bid up; or maybe the anonymous investor bought them using some dividends. But that is neither here nor there, using a similar risk premium before Dec's earnings would put a price around at least .0075. So it will be interesting to see how long it takes to get there; assuming an average Jan luck.

bought a very modest # of units of SDICE on havelock. cautious investor here. :-) don't have a big stockpile of BTC, so wary of committing more than a handful to any one venture.

Plus the dividends paid already... something like 5-7% on top of that. Take that, naysayers.

Cheers

Well, actually its trading at around 0.0047 now so that is more like a 40% gain.

Congratulations on a successfull IPO.

Now that you are quite a bit richer (or rather, your assets are more liquid now) what sort of stuff are you going to do with all those bitcoins (if you would like to share)?

A nice 8% jump in price has been nice for those of us holding shares. Where are all those people saying this was a horrible stock to hold? Cause it would take "like 10 years to make any money!"?

All original shares from the IPO have now been sold.

Hi Everyone, we've decided to launch our own S.DICE passthru fund on https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=SDICE to allow others to invest in S.DICE without the need to spend 30BTC to setup an account on mpex (and figure out all the GPG complexities)

We have a public offering of 500 units (for 50000 shares) live right now, and will issue more if demand is there.

1 unit of our fund = 100 shares listed on mpex. 
We'll pay dividends of 95% of whatever mpex pays us.

Cheers,
 James

In his defense, everyone was promising options imminently since about July 2011 if not earlier.

I was just looking back at the start of the thread and this post made me laugh. We never did see any options available on the GLBSE.

December Statement

The dividend for S.DICE has now been paid for December. It was by far the best month yet.

Summary:
Earnings:   17,266.45
Hosting/Tech Expenses:   60
Loss Carryover from Nov: 0
  
Net Profit   17206.44888669
10% MPEX Dividend   1720.64488866

Volume over past 30 Days   527,708.52
Actual Profit over past 30 Days  16,632.74
Expected Profit over past 30 Days   10,026.46

Updated P&L: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dG5SQklHZG4wRm1GMW9DRWpMMW5UQkE#gid=7

S.DICE shareholders earned 5.25% dividend yield just in the month of December.

Happy new year everyone!

Quick! Someone tell Inaba the "imaginary" numbers are saluting the quite imaginary mining rigs.

Someone just spent 10,000 BTC on S.DICE shares!

Only 409,240 shares left before the IPO sells out!