It's when it happens every time I get annoyed. Ghash.io should have roughly 1/6 of the network, ie. like a dice. Right now the network is as stable as it has been in a very long time. On average there should be 144 solved blocks every day. That's 4464 rolls of the dice in a month and this pool has missed by ≈20% since I started using it, and back then it was over 1/4 of the network. That is on the very edge of what is a possible deviation. And two months in a row?? It looks engineered. If anyone can properly throw some numbers at me I am all ears.
@hurricandave: If you can explain this then please do. But if you just chimed in to be a condescending twat, then....
For the past 2 months, ghash has had a declining profit percentage for expected earnings potential. Currently its at about 85%. But this is simply history. You can't discount it won't continue to decline from now on.[1] Bad Luck. If you want to base your projections on the past, then the pool is actually beginning to pull the average back up. The curve indicates strength upwards at this point. @hurricandave: If you can explain this then please do. But if you just chimed in to be a condescending twat, then....
[2]A quick view of bitcoinwisdom, network hashrate chart shows anything but stability right now. Yes, rates trending down recently as a whole have been showing extreme volatility trending towards an increase on the next adjustment.
Every pool has its trials, this one will not be an exception to that. Poorly managed code, weak security, lack of internal oversight, will leave any pool vulnerable to attack. I doubt that's behind the poor luck right now. What comes around goes around, if consistency is your main concern, PPS is the only way to go. [3]It's also a great system for beginners to learn that they even have personal variance and how much. Then focus on PPLNS, long term will bear out a fair fight in returns, [4]but for now the real threats are the farms garnering the majority of each pools rewards shares on top of their own solo efforts. Like it or not, many of them are hedging the private effort with hashrate on the pools.
1. Eventually you get to a point where the "bad luck" becomes highly improbable.
2. What I see is that five of the six last adjustments have been less than 3%. Those are the only five times it has been less than 3% since at least May 2013. And the next adjustment looks like it will be less than 3% as well. I am not sure what you mean by stable but I would call that relatively stable.
3. Personal variance in a closed system that is based on maths has to be limited by maths as well. I am simply starting to think Ghash.io is moving outside those limits. And with high investment costs and plunging xbt prices I am starting to wonder if they might be siphoning off some coins in order to stay afloat. Admittedly, they would have to be grossly mismanaged to not be well into black, but that has happened before. My fear is that I am wrong and they strike gold the minute I leave, if I choose to do so. If I felt more secure about my premonitions I would have just ditched the pool, but right now I am looking for someone with answers first.
4. Why would that be a bad thing? They will get more stable revenue and the pool should find more blocks. Am I loosing my mind here?
(in one year 4.55 BTC invested.... 2.22 BTC returned) and in that year made from 50% to 80% reinvestment of the mining income to try to keep the skyroketing difficuty, but it wasn't enough....
