Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 27.

SebastianJu

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Quote from: madmat on July 31, 2015, 04:14:14 AM

Quote from: SebastianJu on July 31, 2015, 03:16:43 AM

Quote from: Afrikoin on July 30, 2015, 07:12:50 PM

Quote from: SebastianJu on July 30, 2015, 04:59:25 PM

What do you think of the current upwards trend? I bought when it went over $295 since it broke the level of 15-17th. But it went down now and i wonder if it will turn into a small crash. Though on the month chart it seems its still good in an uptrend. So am i right that the price might go down to 283$ and then goes up again? I think there is a strong resistance line at that price.

Any thoughts?

Yes, you are right. 'it might'.
It also might go lower than that.

Should i short bitcoin? I really wonder how many traders can tell what will happen successfully. Im puzzled about how much manipulated the bitcoin market is in comparision to forex markets, for example.

We just hit support, it is time to buy, not to sell.

Thats what i think too... though you probably know the feeling when you hold and price drops. Tongue

Anyway... i know that emotions are a bad advisor. I didnt sell yet and i hop support is holding. Oh right... in my post above i named it resistance instead support. Roll Eyes

To da moon... Cheesy

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Quote from: SebastianJu on July 31, 2015, 03:16:43 AM

Quote from: Afrikoin on July 30, 2015, 07:12:50 PM

Quote from: SebastianJu on July 30, 2015, 04:59:25 PM

What do you think of the current upwards trend? I bought when it went over $295 since it broke the level of 15-17th. But it went down now and i wonder if it will turn into a small crash. Though on the month chart it seems its still good in an uptrend. So am i right that the price might go down to 283$ and then goes up again? I think there is a strong resistance line at that price.

Any thoughts?

Yes, you are right. 'it might'.
It also might go lower than that.

Should i short bitcoin? I really wonder how many traders can tell what will happen successfully. Im puzzled about how much manipulated the bitcoin market is in comparision to forex markets, for example.

We just hit support, it is time to buy, not to sell.

SebastianJu

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Quote from: Afrikoin on July 30, 2015, 07:12:50 PM

Quote from: SebastianJu on July 30, 2015, 04:59:25 PM

What do you think of the current upwards trend? I bought when it went over $295 since it broke the level of 15-17th. But it went down now and i wonder if it will turn into a small crash. Though on the month chart it seems its still good in an uptrend. So am i right that the price might go down to 283$ and then goes up again? I think there is a strong resistance line at that price.

Any thoughts?

Yes, you are right. 'it might'.
It also might go lower than that.

Should i short bitcoin? I really wonder how many traders can tell what will happen successfully. Im puzzled about how much manipulated the bitcoin market is in comparision to forex markets, for example.

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Quote from: SebastianJu on July 30, 2015, 04:59:25 PM

What do you think of the current upwards trend? I bought when it went over $295 since it broke the level of 15-17th. But it went down now and i wonder if it will turn into a small crash. Though on the month chart it seems its still good in an uptrend. So am i right that the price might go down to 283$ and then goes up again? I think there is a strong resistance line at that price.

Any thoughts?

Yes, you are right. 'it might'.
It also might go lower than that.

SebastianJu

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What do you think of the current upwards trend? I bought when it went over $295 since it broke the level of 15-17th. But it went down now and i wonder if it will turn into a small crash. Though on the month chart it seems its still good in an uptrend. So am i right that the price might go down to 283$ and then goes up again? I think there is a strong resistance line at that price.

Any thoughts?

elasticband

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Given chessnut's last few weeks of bullish predictions..... and his current projections for a nice leg up, he is 100% right.... he would be be crazy and a real gambler if he tried to hit every retrace. These corrctions are not necessarily points to sell or buy but they act as indicators of where market price is going next... which to me says hodl on to your coins.

chessnut

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Quote from: BillyBobZorton on July 21, 2015, 11:29:36 AM

Quote from: chessnut on July 20, 2015, 08:53:54 AM

This is the same old plan in good form. looking to reach 2000 yuan again gradually this week.

Do you trade those corrections that you yourself predict? (ie phase III to IV). I think this is what proves how much people that do technical analysis believe on their own TA. If you aren't buying on your own corrections then you'll have serious doubts about it. So will you sell from III to IV?

I only just read your comment,

Its not nearly as simple as that. Nobody is god and can predict the market unless they are going to pay the cost of shaping it, I dont think you understand what I am trying to do here, it's less than you are demanding. Yes, we try our best to predict whats going to happen in a larger sense and we go so far as to try describe the basic structure of what will probably happen but the thing is irrational, it has some choice in the matter. You cant trust the crowd to top at $320 and bottom at $270, I didnt know that was going to happen, tbh I didnt expect it to go that deep either, I just said that there would be a significant correction at this point in the structure. Trading iii-iv is risky and stupid unless we have good internal form on a reliable time frame, we dont always get that, but thats not bad TA, thats bad form/bad evidence. We didnt get a good form for wave iii, it was munted in china because of destructive margin calls. So I didnt call the top of wave iii, but none the less I was long before and on wave iii because I believed in my analysis based on good evidence. Wave iv was fairly good form in retrospect, that is useful to us now. Why should it be less valuable that I didnt predict it exactly?

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Quote from: SebastianJu on July 24, 2015, 09:38:23 AM

But these percents arent exactly the price, right? These fibonacci rays are drawn on up and down trends. So to the eye of a trader it should look different all the time. Why still changing there?

I often watched price of bitcoin go that way from volatile to smaller curves... at the end trading nearly stopped in comparision to before. Mostly it will drop at that point.

I dont think there is any point in using fibonacci rays or any other visual indicator other than price action apart from illustration purposes despite the fact that the percentages used in context of EW guidelines can be remarkably accurate and complimentary to the correct count. Its a bad strategy to buy at a fibonacci level for the sake of the ratio, but to look for good form at these levels is interesting to say the least.

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on July 24, 2015, 07:04:20 AM

I'd like to add to the Fibonacci discussion...
The reason it works when so few actually follow or even believe in such ideas is because the relationship to a measured move. These are the two most likely points that someone is willing to give up on "chasing" the price. This leads to slowing of momentum at or around these points. The reason it's usually 61.8% for wave-2 and 38.2% for a wave-4 is because this leads to fairly equal amounts of retrace, by price, during an impulse. If you forget about deep and shallow for just a second, call wave-1 a 100% move and wave 2 retraces that move by 61.8%. Wave-3 is 161.8% x the net of wave-1 and wave-4 is a retrace of 38.2% of wave-3. Now, if wave-1 was a $10 move and 2 was a $6.18 retrace, then wave-3 would be +$16.18 and wave-4 is $7.64 retrace. It's not exact but it's close.

But these percents arent exactly the price, right? These fibonacci rays are drawn on up and down trends. So to the eye of a trader it should look different all the time. Why still changing there?

I often watched price of bitcoin go that way from volatile to smaller curves... at the end trading nearly stopped in comparision to before. Mostly it will drop at that point.

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^ Nice elaboration. Thanks.

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I'd like to add to the Fibonacci discussion...
The reason it works when so few actually follow or even believe in such ideas is because the relationship to a measured move. These are the two most likely points that someone is willing to give up on "chasing" the price. This leads to slowing of momentum at or around these points. The reason it's usually 61.8% for wave-2 and 38.2% for a wave-4 is because this leads to fairly equal amounts of retrace, by price, during an impulse. If you forget about deep and shallow for just a second, call wave-1 a 100% move and wave 2 retraces that move by 61.8%. Wave-3 is 161.8% x the net of wave-1 and wave-4 is a retrace of 38.2% of wave-3. Now, if wave-1 was a $10 move and 2 was a $6.18 retrace, then wave-3 would be +$16.18 and wave-4 is $7.64 retrace. It's not exact but it's close.

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Quote from: chessnut on July 04, 2015, 10:52:24 AM

Quote from: chessnut on July 02, 2015, 12:32:58 AM

This is bullish corrective form for the time being. It could produce a triple zz.

There's a chance of this, funny how it is a fractal of the entire downtrend that I described. Triple with flat, zz and triangle.

Updated

Quote from: SebastianJu on July 24, 2015, 06:16:20 AM

Quote from: chessnut on July 24, 2015, 04:04:37 AM

Fibonacci ratios are rarely exact, why should they be, but there are convincing averages especially in dow study that show on average ratios of correction are almost exactly in terms of the golden ratio.

In EW we observe the difference between deep and shallow corrections in terms of the golden ratio, 62% and 38%, because they are actually the perfect geometrical ratios to define the point where a correction is significantly deep or shallow, thats why the golden ratio is so special in many fields. its an indisputably fair ratio. 'Fairly' deep is precisely 62% in every respect, why would it be anything else? Its a strong observation that different species of waves have deep and shallow corrections, for example, primary waves are observed to correct on average to 62%.

This sounds interesting but i cant wrap my head around what you mean exactly. Can you maybe make a graphical example of how you would use the golden ratio with corrections?

Thanks!

In this situation I counted the correction of this primary wave as possibly complete but as a guideline I knew to expect a deep retrace to the 62%. it came true with impressive accuracy.

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Quote from: chessnut on July 24, 2015, 04:04:37 AM

Fibonacci ratios are rarely exact, why should they be, but there are convincing averages especially in dow study that show on average ratios of correction are almost exactly in terms of the golden ratio.

In EW we observe the difference between deep and shallow corrections in terms of the golden ratio, 62% and 38%, because they are actually the perfect geometrical ratios to define the point where a correction is significantly deep or shallow, thats why the golden ratio is so special in many fields. its an indisputably fair ratio. 'Fairly' deep is precisely 62% in every respect, why would it be anything else? Its a strong observation that different species of waves have deep and shallow corrections, for example, primary waves are observed to correct on average to 62%.

This sounds interesting but i cant wrap my head around what you mean exactly. Can you maybe make a graphical example of how you would use the golden ratio with corrections?

Thanks!

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Quote from: chessnut on July 23, 2015, 07:41:55 AM

Quote from: Afrikoin on July 21, 2015, 12:25:06 PM

I think people misunderstand EW. Excuse me, i've just been absorbed in MBTI personality types in what i would characterize as a rabbit hole. I am quite possibly an ENFP. This could partially explain why there are such differing opinions on it. Everyone is looking at it different.

Anyone who says it has no value (EW) is rightly entitled to their opinion, but, should also respect others as well. Maybe they see it and you dont. Which is fine anyways. We dont all have to see it the same way, or even agree. What is important is that it works for *some of us.

"(INTJ) you are not entitled to your opinion, you are entitled to your informed opinion" Grin

this sideways appears to be a triangle, supported by the bigger picture it should be wave y of iv. it will be interesting to see how it forms over the next 48 hours and we might get a clear long signal.

EDIT: If we break down through 1685 or so it would mean any hypothetical triangle is broken down and at that point we would have to re-evaluate the bigger picture.

But overall you are bullish Chessnut, right ?

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Quote from: Afrikoin on July 21, 2015, 12:25:06 PM

I think people misunderstand EW. Excuse me, i've just been absorbed in MBTI personality types in what i would characterize as a rabbit hole. I am quite possibly an ENFP. This could partially explain why there are such differing opinions on it. Everyone is looking at it different.

Anyone who says it has no value (EW) is rightly entitled to their opinion, but, should also respect others as well. Maybe they see it and you dont. Which is fine anyways. We dont all have to see it the same way, or even agree. What is important is that it works for *some of us.

"(INTJ) you are not entitled to your opinion, you are entitled to your informed opinion" Grin

this sideways appears to be a triangle, supported by the bigger picture it should be wave y of iv. it will be interesting to see how it forms over the next 48 hours and we might get a clear long signal.

EDIT: If we break down through 1685 or so it would mean any hypothetical triangle is broken down and at that point we would have to re-evaluate the bigger picture.

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I think people misunderstand EW. Excuse me, i've just been absorbed in MBTI personality types in what i would characterize as a rabbit hole. I am quite possibly an ENFP. This could partially explain why there are such differing opinions on it. Everyone is looking at it different.

Anyone who says it has no value (EW) is rightly entitled to their opinion, but, should also respect others as well. Maybe they see it and you dont. Which is fine anyways. We dont all have to see it the same way, or even agree. What is important is that it works for *some of us.

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Quote from: chessnut on July 20, 2015, 08:53:54 AM

This is the same old plan in good form. looking to reach 2000 yuan again gradually this week.

Do you trade those corrections that you yourself predict? (ie phase III to IV). I think this is what proves how much people that do technical analysis believe on their own TA. If you aren't buying on your own corrections then you'll have serious doubts about it. So will you sell from III to IV?

Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 27. (Read 355104 times)