Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 29. (Read 355110 times)

Whilst I don't discount the notion that we very well could be in a wave B of the overall downtrend, I do reject the idea that wave B would only reach ~$316 USD as retracement from an A that fell from ~$1100 to ~$155. The ratios just don't add up.

It's obvious, to the point that it's largely ignored here because it doesn't resonate with the echo chamber.
spoiler: wave 1-5 also add up - since the beginning....

Exactly phoenix, couple this with the average Greek IQ which I believe is around 92- so low end of average on the bell curve, how many average older people would even begin to look into bitcoin? Many older greeks don't even have cell phones! I don't think there will be many greeks pouring into btc. More likely they will be buying anything of value very quickly, like food or cars (which there is evidence for). But since a 'deal' has been reached, we will probably have to wait a few months for the whole ridiculous dance to begin again. Finally, a lot of the people lining up at cash machines are probably pensioners- which have to wait for regular payments to come through anyway. How anyone can have any faith in Greek banks at this point is beyond me.

Sorry for remaining OT a little!

I don't think many will choose to buy BTC at all, but we will see. And TBH I am not sure what this publicity is that you talk of other than on minority websites followed by Bitcoiners. I have not seen anything about BTC in the UK press, and a couple of mentions elsewhere (easily done if you have the connections)
Yes, smart people realise that Grexit is probalby only postponed. In the game within the game the very smart people have known this long before now.
IMO market makers have worked very hard to make BTC look like it is a safe haven and profited from the minnows follwoing, but IMO it is too immature for this to be reality right now. Not saying it can't/won't rally from here and won't become that safe haven, just that at the moment it's all smoke and mirrors with a nice narrative.
What happened to 'conventional wisdom' that it takes about 6 months from people hearing about BTC to feeling comfortable making their first purchase? IMO most Greeks seeking to escape future capital controls will withdraw money from their bank accounts and stuff it under their mattresses for now prior to engaging in BTC (if they even do). Perhaps they will exchange it for USD, but primarily they will just want to have their hands on hard currency in the event that banks close again.
The fear is of a bail-in or their savings being converted to a depreciating currency (new drachma) upon possible Grexit. Having physical currency in hand will assuage that fear for most.

Very good points. Sounds like banks will be opened in Greece in a few days.

I believe that the price went up speculatively because of the grexit, not because people were preparing to use it in greece or even try but because people finally had an incentive to learn thoroughly about it and that was an opportunity for wide spread publicity in a new light. You cannot un-do the publicity that bitcoin achieved in that period of time and the effects of that are yet to fully unfold. It's been said that the deal is not a solution to the problem and smart people are realising that the grexit is for now only postponed. Do you think they will choose to buy bitcoin before or after their bank accounts are frozen?

That's what I thought originally too- but are they only just now considering removing the captial controls enacted during the crisis? I'm not sure how much that reflects on their recovery.

Might be but traders seems to believe that the solution now is there and all will go like before. And i would agree. Merkel will never let greek exit since she fears others will follow.

A Grexit might mean a hard time for greek but, i believe, iceland already overcame such thing and ist stronger than before now.

I think these events are rather rare. Bitcointraders know already that the bitcoin price will react positive to such things since they experienced it with cyprus. Im not sure the chinese market will have a similar effect. At the moment i believe the rise was only and totally coming from grexit and not from china. I think china is simply different.

A solution?? Throwing out the democratic vote of OXI to sign on to a terrible deal that caused riots in the streets is not really a solution. The greek people still don't have monetary freedom, and that's the issue. No grexit, no big deal; none of them will ever trust a bank again. They are all candidates to become bitcoiners.

A chart would help to illustrate all the above.

Found this on a different EW thread

I gave more thought to the scenario by RyNinDaCleM, according to which we are on the way to the top of THE wave B (or already peaked).
So far, my most probable wave B was in December 2013 - January 2014, from a bottom of 380$ top a top of 990$, so about 2.6x rise.
To take another one as THE wave B I'd like to see price go higher than 430$ (over 2.6x from the January bottom of 166$).
I find unlikely the next leg up (which seems still possible) to have an amplitude over 100$, because that's how much this market
allowed from very oversold to very overbought during the last couple of months. So I find unlikely for a wave B to reach over 380$,
while the real one should be close to the June 2014 top of 685$ (and the March top should have been around 450$).
OTOH squeezing a whole wave C in the time remaining to the block reward halving shouldn't be a problem if the market picks up speed.
In such a case, with the same % drop as from 1175$ to 166$, we could end up with THE bottom around 50$.

How long before they'll find another thing that could in some way positively influence the bitcoin price? If not Grexit then how about the Chinese crash?

EMAs

MAs

Nice analysis as usual chessnut!

As long as we stay above the 200 sma on a daily chart I am not concerned:



will break out the bubbly when the slope of the sma turns positive

Good to hear that you think we won't go down much more if any at all. I really feel that 1 bitcoin should be worth 300 USD + . Let's hope the reality reflects that soon because falling from 315 to where we are presently is a bit demoralising. It is another chance for cheap coins though so one can always look at it that way.

I really doubt that. Price went up because bitcoiners believed in grexit. It dropped when a solution showed up and it will fall more since a solution is there now. I dont see it going up now.

Though im not a pro trade.

Because of this local abc and the levels it has broken we have to assume that wave iii of the entire impulse topped at around 315 in a fudge of extensions caused by the violent wave iii in china. Despite losing track of my internal count it is following the count I published here very nicely. - https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCCNY/bpU7YQ6p-BTCCNY-EW-Analysis-Is-this-the-end-of-the-down-trend/

On the bright side of this disruption we are now closer to learning the likelihood that we have bottomed before the next cycle.

With the latest uptrend (which I expect to continue a bit) a bullish scenario became possible, but is far from confirmed.
Right now my most probable scenario is that we are on the way to 4 of C, which should be close to 400$ (but don't take this as granted!).
By this count, 1 of C was 340$ in April 2014, 2 of C was 685$ in June 2014, and 3 of C was the 166$ bottom in January.