"Bearish" as in is refusing to participate in the circlejerk and making fun of it, yes.
Bearish as thinking the valuation will be going down, no.
That is certainly a new definition of bearish you have concocted.
Speak for yourself, bearish is concerned with valuation period.
you think price will go up ? it has been a while since i saw a bullish post from you. i think it was october 2013....
I think the valuation of Bitcoin is
detached from it's fundamentals and it always has been that way. Nevertheless I still sometimes trade them and as such I am bullish at times, when I do that I just don't make a big deal about it because it's usually not that interesting.
I consider it gambling, more than anything else.
Do you have any guesses for how deep C might be *if indeed it plays out?
Sorry no, to be honest I don't trade on the basis of EW, but is it enough to say below wave 1 (32)? I'm mainly
skeptical that EW can be used to do anything but describe past trends, just like what jstolfi did with his bubble on top of bubble matching chart.
Nevertheless I think curve fitting is an approach that has potential. It just should be something that doesn't
allow for any random movement to be modeled so it retains predictive properties.
The elliot wave theory and principle are largely based on the observation that market movement are based less on fundamentals than crowd psychology, the phenomena that most people draw more comfort believing in what others believe than believing more logical alternatives. This has rational and irrational impact on fundamentals that economists do not understand. however, price in a vacuum leaves only a few mechanisms to determine price action, and we find that the key emotions of fear and greed in a wave system (an equilibrium system) are irrational forces that always unfold in the same nature because of human psychology (which doesnt change). This way EW is more about how the market moves than predicting the future, and we realise that there may be multiple solutions to a real problem but they must be finite in context of robust logic.
EW analysis is not about trends, its about structure and key levels. Blind extrapolation implied in the term 'trend' is a fallacy in our analysis.
Simple harmonic ratios are found everywhere in nature, you cannot escape them they are necessary and robust and in concept they are perfectly defined. In this respect the EW theory cannot model random movement because truly random movement is not in simple harmonic terms (even so it may produce order in harmonic terms). The market is not random this is obvious and easy to prove, while it has weak sudo-random components. This is why the EW principle is composed of hard rules but also many guidelines because the market only presents confirmation of the principle in varying quality (but often good quality). maths provides us the principle where stats/evidence provides the theory. The theory is difficult to prove because it is a quantum system, scientists have battled providing evidence that an electron may be in two places at the same time for the same reason, but thats how it must be and thats how it is. Even so the theory put aside, the principle is enough for an effective trading strategy just as philosophers divide into camps of deontological and causational ethics, they are both valid and effective.
).
