- Case for the bulls: daily (bullish) divergence on MACD hist. We'll find out if only "delays the inevitable" (i.e. breakdown), or if we're finding support here (i.e. above 200). I lean towards the former (perhaps brief touch of ~240, then back to 210-220 and lower), but I'm not entirely ruling out a bullish scenario either.
[Non-EW Post]
I have never really paid much attention to the MACD hist before, but I'm assuming you've used it previously in your analysis. How valid a signal would you say the histogram divergence is? Equal predictive value as regular MACD divs, or less so?
[/Non-EW Post]
Honestly, I'm not sure. I've previously asked two traders I respect (ryn and luc), and both said, more or less, they don't trust MACD histogram divergences much. I'm mentioning this because these two have a lot more experience in market analysis than I do.
In my own experience, the MACD hist is a pretty reliable, if nervous, momentum indicator, across time scales, so I would expect divergences on it to hold
some value. But as with all divergences spotting them is one thing, but determining how much weight they carry at any given time is another (i.e. they can be neutralized, and they can come to effect with a delay).
tl;dr I don't know how much value you should assign to hist/f'' divergences exactly. I like to track them, and don't entirely dismiss them, but I suspect more experienced traders have a point when they say they're not too reliable.
/off topic
