Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 47.

damiano

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103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.

Quote from: chessnut on April 14, 2015, 05:07:22 PM

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on April 14, 2015, 04:31:51 AM

Where is the next resistance? Are we at near resistance right now (~$218) ? Looks like resistance will be met at 200-210?

it is really hard to say, just keep focused on the bigger picture. At a guess 200 should fight and 180 very likely.

$200 will be exciting to watch Wink

chessnut

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Quote from: Xiaoxiao on April 14, 2015, 04:31:51 AM

Where is the next resistance? Are we at near resistance right now (~$218) ? Looks like resistance will be met at 200-210?

it is really hard to say, just keep focused on the bigger picture. At a guess 200 should fight and 180 very likely.

Xiaoxiao

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The Golden Rule Rules

Where is the next resistance? Are we at near resistance right now (~$218) ? Looks like resistance will be met at 200-210?

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: chessnut on April 13, 2015, 03:01:50 PM

thanks,

one eye sore here for me is that hypothetical wave ii best takes the form of a triangle (which would be a terminal move to some degree) but it doesnt fit here in any larger time frame..... im interested in what Ryan thinks of this.

.....it doesnt have right of way so to speak because the larger count is still just fine.

If it was indeed a triangle (there really wasn't a market wide consensus), it only fits as a larger 4th and today's dumps was the thrust move to complete 1 of III, or it was part of a complex correction where Y was a triangle. This fits as a wave 2 and uses up all the necessary time for a wave-2. Since these last two larger corrections were so shallow in retracement, just 38.2%, this explosive move was expected by most EWers. If this was just the start of 3 of III then I feel sorry for the bulls over the next month or so.

Quote from: Afrikoin on April 13, 2015, 04:16:24 PM

Now, please do not pull the rug from under us and shutdown this thread. Like Ryan did Shocked

I had good reason to lock my thread and quit making my counts public. When it adversely affects my profitability, that's where I draw the line. Within minutes of posting an update, there would be walls, moves and front running of my charts. once or twice I could just brush off as coincidence, but it was happening frequently and rather than using it to my advantage and ruining my credibility, I decided to close the thread.

chessnut

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Quote from: podyx on April 13, 2015, 05:28:10 PM

chessnut, I'm curious on what you think that bitcoin will fail? Meaning if we go down to $100 or whatever we won't be seeing prices over, let's say $250, ever again.

Do you think another cryptocurrency could eventually overtake it? Or do you think that bitcoin still has a bright future?

Im an EW analyst not a fundamentalist, but if you really want my view, I think BTC still has a part to play in the world.

Quote from: Odalv on April 13, 2015, 05:35:35 PM

chessnut is a whale (or payed by whale) and he wants to get your coins cheap. :-) ... so dump your coins as fast as possible

As of late I am fast becoming a whale.

[enter Hanlons's Razor]

Quote from: Afrikoin on April 13, 2015, 04:16:24 PM

To be fair, chessnut has got A LOT of calls right. Just have a look at this thread's history. I guess this one seems huge for noob lurkers because - market was bullish, long swaps were up, PSAR yada BLA Bla BLA - only sanity i found was here, so thanks for the perspective!

Now, please do not pull the rug from under us and shutdown this thread. Like Ryan did Shocked

I have had my ups and downs, and am happy to see net positive results. Now a moments silence for those who have come off second best using EW because of bad luck and bad trading.

Lets keep confidence in our EW predictions at a healthy level, afterall, the fat lady hasnt quite sung yet.

Odalv

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chessnut is a whale (or payed by whale) and he wants to get your coins cheap. :-) ... so dump your coins as fast as possible

podyx

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chessnut, I'm curious on what you think that bitcoin will fail? Meaning if we go down to $100 or whatever we won't be seeing prices over, let's say $250, ever again.

Do you think another cryptocurrency could eventually overtake it? Or do you think that bitcoin still has a bright future?

Afrikoin

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alan watts is all you need

To be fair, chessnut has got A LOT of calls right. Just have a look at this thread's history. I guess this one seems huge for noob lurkers because - market was bullish, long swaps were up, PSAR yada BLA Bla BLA - only sanity i found was here, so thanks for the perspective!

Now, please do not pull the rug from under us and shutdown this thread. Like Ryan did Shocked

chessnut

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Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on April 13, 2015, 03:31:33 PM

Quote from: chessnut on April 13, 2015, 03:01:50 PM

thanks,

one eye sore here for me is that hypothetical wave ii best takes the form of a triangle (which would be a terminal move to some degree) but it doesnt fit here in any larger time frame..... im interested in what Ryan thinks of this.

.....it doesnt have right of way so to speak because the larger count is still just fine.

Could it possibly have been (iv) of i? Although fib proportions of the subwaves don't seem optimal for this count.

yeah... its not right, form or fibs. but like i said, larger tf gets right of way so its ok. DanV is calling for running flat, meaning there could be a bounce to 230 or so before moar down toward 1300

JustAnotherSheep

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Quote from: chessnut on April 13, 2015, 03:01:50 PM

thanks,

one eye sore here for me is that hypothetical wave ii best takes the form of a triangle (which would be a terminal move to some degree) but it doesnt fit here in any larger time frame..... im interested in what Ryan thinks of this.

.....it doesnt have right of way so to speak because the larger count is still just fine.

Could it possibly have been (iv) of i? Although fib proportions of the subwaves don't seem optimal for this count.

oda.krell

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been lurking in here for a while, first post to say: good analysis, good call

chessnut

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thanks,

one eye sore here for me is that hypothetical wave ii best takes the form of a triangle (which would be a terminal move to some degree) but it doesnt fit here in any larger time frame..... im interested in what Ryan thinks of this.

.....it doesnt have right of way so to speak because the larger count is still just fine.

Tzupy

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Good call, chessnut!
This time the 6h PSAR was misleading, and there was no little bounce before the dump.

Raystonn

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fabrizio123

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Quote from: eboard10 on April 13, 2015, 12:36:29 PM

Quote from: chessnut on April 12, 2015, 06:28:12 PM

Quote from: fabrizio123 on April 12, 2015, 05:59:44 PM

The sideways is b of II, the c will bring us up and then a big fall Wink

But maybe i'm wrong Cheesy

I wouldnt count on a proper wave c Wink

She is almost tipping, the fall could come any time in the next couple of days in the case of wave iii of III, (or C, as the case may be) all counts are aiming for 1300 and below.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/AmRMWlnB/

Yep, and given that this wave 3/C should be at least as large as Wave 1/A, we are looking at a minimum fall to 1150, most likely falling under 1000.

It' s not sure it's also possibile that 3 or c will be less large than 1
EDIT: but i'm not so confident about that Cry

eboard10

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Quote from: chessnut on April 12, 2015, 06:28:12 PM

Quote from: fabrizio123 on April 12, 2015, 05:59:44 PM

The sideways is b of II, the c will bring us up and then a big fall Wink

But maybe i'm wrong Cheesy

I wouldnt count on a proper wave c Wink

She is almost tipping, the fall could come any time in the next couple of days in the case of wave iii of III, (or C, as the case may be) all counts are aiming for 1300 and below.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/AmRMWlnB/

Yep, and given that this wave 3/C should be at least as large as Wave 1/A, we are looking at a minimum fall to 1150, most likely falling under 1000.

chessnut

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Quote from: fabrizio123 on April 12, 2015, 05:59:44 PM

The sideways is b of II, the c will bring us up and then a big fall Wink

But maybe i'm wrong Cheesy

I wouldnt count on a proper wave c Wink

She is almost tipping, the fall could come any time in the next couple of days in the case of wave iii of III, (or C, as the case may be) all counts are aiming for 1300 and below.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/AmRMWlnB/

fabrizio123

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The sideways is b of II, the c will bring us up and then a big fall Wink

But maybe i'm wrong Cheesy

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: BldSwtTrs on April 12, 2015, 04:31:56 PM

Quote from: Tzupy on April 12, 2015, 04:00:42 PM

6h PSAR flipped to bullish today on Bitstamp and could very soon flip on Bitfinex too (Chinese exchanges don't show anymore on bitcoincharts).
There is also a weak bullish divergence in multiple MACD time frames, so going up before taking the big plunge is possible.

Why the Bitstamp 6h PSAR is still bearish on bitcoinwisdom? Shouldn't both site have the same data and formula?

They probably have different closes or different formula

Quote from: Afrikoin on April 12, 2015, 03:51:15 PM

Does RSI always move up with correctives?

RSI usually moves with the price. It's when it diverges that it becomes a good topping/bottoming signal.

BldSwtTrs

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Quote from: Tzupy on April 12, 2015, 04:00:42 PM

6h PSAR flipped to bullish today on Bitstamp and could very soon flip on Bitfinex too (Chinese exchanges don't show anymore on bitcoincharts).
There is also a weak bullish divergence in multiple MACD time frames, so going up before taking the big plunge is possible.

Why the Bitstamp 6h PSAR is still bearish on bitcoinwisdom? Shouldn't both site have the same data and formula?

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