Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 48. (Read 355110 times)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parabolic_SAR

what's this briefly? Can you share a link to a good source?

I also think we will go up before going down (alot), Afrikacoin illustrated it better, than I could.

EDIT: OKcoin has been remarkably flat these last days across all boards.

6h PSAR flipped to bullish today on Bitstamp and could very soon flip on Bitfinex too (Chinese exchanges don't show anymore on bitcoincharts).
There is also a weak bullish divergence in multiple MACD time frames, so going up before taking the big plunge is possible.

Does RSI always move up with correctives?

The market is starting to go sideways...  It will start to get boring really.

Not at all, here and in Masterluc´s thread it was said over and over again, that if we are to retest lows, it will be in sub-150 range.

EDIT: I think it is reasonable to expect, that the longer it will takes to reach lows, the deeper they will be.

I've never been to DanV's place so I don't know what is said there, but there is a bit of ambiguity in EW. There could be more than 1 way to count a completed wave, so the absolute count isn't as important as the ability to count it validly. There was even a complete valid count down to 166, but the rise since is still corrective meaning more down is required. There isn't enough strength for a sustainable rise right now.

The "strength" in the move off of 166 is typical of an A wave. Both in the count (clearly not impulsive) and in volume. But after that initial spike that lasted a total of 12 days, the volume has only gotten lower as we grinded higher only to fail making the higher high. This shows weakness that volume was telling us weeks earlier.

Edit:
The move off the bottom doesn't necessarily have to be stronger. It must be in 5 wave structures and it must be on increasing volume. Not just an intial spike of volume near the bottom and declining volume the rest of the time


There are no absolute certainties in any types of analysis. And EW doesn't predict the levels directly. EW predicts direction and extension. Fibonacci is how you get levels. If we spent the last 10 years dropping from 11,630 to 2,500 then it would be identical chances. Since percentages are the same, the likelihood is the same. I do agree that the 250-100 example is more attainable for new entrants, but it's still a game of percentages.

Yeah i believe you EWer guys might be right that we have to wait for a count to play out etc but under $200 is a great price and something like $150 everyone can feel like they can buy 1 bitcoin. Maybe if it were $2500 right now and EW predicted a drop to $1000 it becomes more certain we hit that bottom ?

One being a valid and complete count from the 1163 top to the xxx bottom and two

How can we tell the count from 1163 when there is debate on the overall wave count due to validity of Gox data. Have you watched DanVs Hangouts? Basically, there is uncertainty as to what overall count we're on eg Wave 5 vs wave B

we must rise off the bottom in an impulsive fashion. When we are 3 months off the bottom, there should also be higher volume than 2 months ago.

So the move up will be stronger than the one we experienced from $166 to $315? $275 to $475? I for one would love to experience that. I wonder how X stronger than the two i've quoted as examples

No, I'm not saying that a lower low must be made at all. But a complete count is required to consider the end of the bear market. Events that prematurely cause changes that delay the inevitable (inevitable being a completed wave structure) only prolong what we all are anxiously awaiting. That being the conclusion of the bear market. We could get a final wave down that makes a double bottom or even falls a few percent short of the previous bottom. Then two things need to happen. One being a valid and complete count from the 1163 top to the xxx bottom and two, we must rise off the bottom in an impulsive fashion. When we are 3 months off the bottom, there should also be higher volume than 2 months ago. Volume moving WITH the price == trending.

Sentiment cannot be forced- The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. This even goes for whales. They aren't going to go against the flow for too long and risk being wiped out to try to force the reversal. Reversal is more than just a change in direction... It is also the shift in sentiment where fear of buying is minimized and people aren't stepping over each other to sell first.

floors cannot be made- This goes hand in hand with that last statement. Whales aren't going to prop the whole market up for yours or mine, or anybody else's sake. So why try? He will prop it to sell at a better price though. He will also make pumps. A true floor (read, unforced) is made by true demand... Market wide demand. This is the point where buyers are stepping over each other to buy first.

Please correct me if I am incorrectly interpreting you here, but it seems as if you are saying that 120(ish) is an inevitability and 60 a distinct possibility. If so, that is quite a bold statement.

Thanks, and you're welcome!
About your question, I'm not sure what you mean... Could you elaborate?
If you are referring to my chart there, then not exactly. I just draw out what I think is going to happen without regard to the timing. For clarity, I spread it out a bit but I also have time constraints in useable space at the end of a chart. It may be fairly close, but I would expect it to diverge a bit, one way or the other, since there are a lot of factors in absolute timing of market movements. For instance, wave-4's tend to be long and drawn out compared to the subsequent wave-2 and there is no hard rule on how long we can stagnate in consolidation. So if we drift sideways for too long, then price will diverge farther yet from my projection. Levels should be close but it still doesn't take in consideration excessive panic. Those levels are just based on typical Fibonacci relationships.


There are absolutely other contributing factors that can change the actual outcome. But I am a firm believer that they will only, as chessnut said, either speed things up or slow things down, also they can cause the "levels" I spoke of above to either be deeper or shallower. These type of things will not automagically bring the bear market to an early end from an EW perspective except by invalidating these counts. At which point there would have to be a count that satisfies the needs of a completed wave structure. Basically, we would have to revise our counts into something valid and complete. If there are none, the ensuing rally will only be a delay... A larger B wave before further decline in C. I could see something like a hype cycle from some important event, like the ones you mentioned, taking us to 5-700 and even higher but if the overall count is not complete, then we will see another large wave down again when that is worked out of the markets' system.
I do not subscribe to the idea that news can change the outcome of a bear market of this magnitude. Floors cannot be made and sentiment cannot be forced.

 

Time frames are tough. There is a real chance that this bear market could unfold rapidly, like in a couple of weeks only to reach new lows, while even in an impulsive count it could take much longer than that, like 6 weeks. alternate counts could take a few months. We can only get a better idea after a fair portion of the wave unfolds.

I've been following your predictions since September 2014, and you have been very accurate in your thread (Ryan's Log). That said, given the (Z) target, do you think these counts would be valid if say, the Bitlicense was issued and Gemini comes online before that (Z) is hit? Or would that completely change the bear market into bull?

I personally don't think the bear market will terminate completely until three things happen:

1. Gemini
2. Winklevoss ETF
3. Most importantly: Blocksize limit increase.

Number 3 should be emphasized because any rally led by Gemini and/or the ETF will be slammed by the blocksize ceiling.

The rest is volatility.

Rynindaclem you and Chessnut are two people I keep coming back for. Excellent study. Thank you.

Would you consider timeframe in chart reliable?

I was here at about $6, before the 32 high. I have seen far worse attempts at shoving the price around than what we see now. I have amounted so much time in trading Bitcoin and the TA that I have calluses on my emotion. I am rarely phased by anything anymore. I try to always have a plan for whatever is thrown at me. Part of my lack of panic is due to the fact that my cost of investment started near zero and due to trading, it is so low that it would take a failure in my own abilities of epic proportions for me to worry about price on a fomo/panic level.

 

Off topic, Ryan how would you describe how you feel everyday when you watch the markets? I ask because i think you've been here since $ 2? I imagine there is no amount of panic/mania that could shake you

Awww shucks guys.  

An impulse always follows an impulse, we could be in wave C of an ABC zig zag, or wave III of a larger impulse towards yearly and possibly final yearly lows. The impulse is the preferred count on a larger scale but following what exactly.. it is unclear. So the target for a worst case scenario (for shorts  ) wave C is around 1300. This is just because it is a 0.618 retrace of the 2015 rally, the target is not otherwise clear with so little form within the wave. Targets to be prepared for in the case of a larger impulse will also become clearer as it unfolds, but there are some critical points in the case of specific counts. The $90 level is a possible minimum in the case of an expanding diagonal wave C where wave V must be greater than wave III. This would likely also be the reversal level, not that this price could be tolerated for any great length of time in that case. Otherwise gently testing yearly lows at about 800yuan is the most plausible situation.

I do believe Ryan has a good xyz count for a much bumpier road to yearly lows, makes sense if you dont see a motive for all this shenanigans.