Topic: DADICE : exposing investors to more risk than their kelly, misleading informatio - page 5. (Read 6852 times)

Well, you knew this all before. Why haven't you pointed it our before -- when you mentioned our 20 btc max payouts ? Taking opportunities here?

You should call it leverage then since that what you are offering. What you are offering investors is not based on Kelly Criterion and it is misleading to call it "Kelly".

On a risk profit base, yes, Read my post above.

That wasn't a discussion. That was me telling you that your actions were irresponsible, and you ignoring me.

Does that count as a discussion where you're from?

Here is more information from our removed investors manual:

Kelly 1 is like a straight investment. Let us assume that there is no bankroll and you invest 10 btc. This will make your investment 100% of the bankroll, and you will get 100% of the house edge, in case the player loses. If a player wins, the amount they win will be deducted in full.

Kelly 0.5 halves your risk thus you invest 10btc but the total bankroll (if there are no other investors) is now only 5 BTC. Accordingly you profits and losses are less.

Kelly 2 you would invest 10 BTC. Thus you would create a bankroll of 20 btc in total, but since you have invested only 10 BTC, your risk level has since doubled, but then again so have your profits, if players are losing.

Therefor the higher the Kelly level is, the more risk you are taking.

The problem is that you appear to be offering investing based on the Kelly criterion, but aren't.

Nobody needs "the manual" to know about Kelly betting - it is a well known strategy.

It appears that what you are offering is nothing to do with the Kelly criterion. Rather, you're recklessly risking too much of your investors' funds per bet, while claiming to be using "Kelly".

If you were using "Kelly system", you wouldn't even have a "max. payout". You would have a "max. profit". And it would be way lower than 20 BTC.

You should stop this deceptive practice and repay the investors who lost out as a result of this deception and/or incompetence.

It seems the me that the "Kelly" option for private investors is not really based on Kelly Criterion, but is actually just leverage. If an investor has 10x Kelly, then it should not be possible to lose more than 10% of their investment in a single bet. If a 10x Kelly investor can lose 29% of their investment in a single bet, then the site is exposing the investor to more risk then they wanted.

At least dadice now explained that in fact every investor knows where his investment lies on a cold wallet storage. At least investors have some safety then. But in investors shoes i think the investors made a stupid decision to prevent dadice from making the cold wallet public. The investors had to knew that this will hurt their investment, which it most probably did.

If an investor was stupid enough to leave behind traces about who he was then the simple solution would have been to tunnel the funds through a mixer or exchanges shared wallet and make a fresh cold wallet that can be shown. Problem solved, danger for dadice avoided. Didnt happen... investors fault... investors loss.

Im not sure about what to think about the kelly criterion. The page is easily found through google. And it seems the page was online since july 4th. And yes, it states a max 1 kelly: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:T7p9rI3jE1IJ:https://www.dadice.com/print%3Finvestments+&cd=1&hl=de&ct=clnk&gl=de

Its in fact insane to not use 1% kelly. The risk of the house being considerably damaged is very high. Recovering would be hard when the right person only has a good portion of luck. Even 1% proved to be risky like dooglus experienced with old bitcoin just-dice.

So leen, you suffered 2BTC loss and you demand a 3 btc punishment on top. Hm... dont know what to say about the last part. You say your investment went down 29%. Does this mean your investment was around 6BTC? The won amount was 19.8Bitcoin, which matches the 20Bitcoin max profit. But when your investment went down 29% when a player won 19.8Bitcoins, and you invested with a max kelly of 10 then the house must be relatively small, isnt it?

Funny thing is... the winner probably bet only faucet money.

@dadice_dev did leen sign something or check a checkbox that she know there is a 20btc max? When i would have read that and read the 1% kelly rule then i would assume that the 20btc only is in effect when 1% is more than 20btc, but not that it puts kelly out of effect. So was there some rules an investor had to say yes to?

We didn't attack leen in anyway, we just expose her lies and the fact that she was totally aware of effective MAX. PAYOUT on site for months. Decision to provide 20 BTC max. payout is totally a commercial one. There cannot be a better answer for such of a hypothetical question, "We will pay as much as we can!" ... "also thing to note is that we over 500+ btc of our own in bankroll". The phrase never means in any way that we will NOT pay people. We have paid leen, we will continue to pay everyone! If some one wins 100x 20 BTC, we will either have to arrange more or declare bankruptcy in given circumstances? Could there be a more reasonable answer to this?

Anyway, both of the issues were discussed in past, leen was totally aware of the MAX. PAYOUT on da dice so the entire accusation is null and void.


Personally I agree that it should be based on bank roll but as I have suggested before this is a commercial decision not technical. And we do not need advices when it comes to commercial decisions, including but not limited to how we pay for signature campaigns, other events and everything. We may change this in future, right now, how are we going to pay is none of your concerns.

With everytime you say investors, I take it as you meant to write "private investors" and I don't see any one else except leen complaining here because all of them are aware of 20 BTC max. payout and still have their investments with us. And as @dadice has perviously and very generously offered any of our private investor who wants to quit will be divested to the point prior to that particular roll except leen (for her not acting in good faith).

Thank you for your kind interest!

That shows someone betting 9 BTC at 2x and profiting by 9 BTC. That is within 1% of the effective bankroll.

The bet that leen is complaining about is where someone profited by almost 20 BTC. That is not within 1% of the effective bankroll.

The way you publicly attacked one of your private investors in that post makes you look very unprofessional, and the fact that you don't even seem to understand the error that he is complaining about also doesn't help your image here.

Edit:


Well, leen asked you what would happen if someone won a lot, and you replied that "we will pay as much as we can". While that isn't exactly the same words as "we will not pay him the won amount", it does appear to have the same meaning. leen paraphrased you, without changing the meaning.

If you had said "we will pay them in full, of course, because we only offer bets we can afford to pay out as we are not scammers" and leen reported you as having said something different then I can see your point. But that isn't what happened.

The reason you have a crowd-sourced bankroll and investors choosing how much to risk per roll is so that you don't get into this kind of situation. You only allow bets that you are bankrolled to allow. This isn't rocket science. What you should do here is make things right. Fix your code. Repay the investors you have effectively stolen from. And fix your reputation.

Edit2:


But payout doesn't matter. When deciding on what max bets you're bankrolled to accept it's the player's profit that matters, not the total payout.


Jesus man, do your research. That isn't how most of them work. When you're dealing with investor funds and claiming to use the Kelly criterion, you should use the Kelly criterion and not just have a flat rate maximum payout of 20 BTC.

At Just-Dice, we guarantee that all winning bets will be paid out. There is no chance that any player can win more than the bankroll. That is because the maximum profit per bet is a fraction of the bankroll. How can you be operating in this space and yet fail to have even a basic understanding of how it works?

Edit3:


That post is me complaining that your maximum payout is too high. The fact that you still didn't fix that isn't a point in your favour.


If you would like me to take a look at your investment feature I would be willing to. But there is no way I am ever going to invest my own funds with you. You can make me an account and lock it from betting or withdrawing if you like so I can take a look but if you think I would send you coins after everything I've seen from you, you're mistaken.

That's certainly weird, if those stats are real and supposedly they are, i don't see why would they lie, means that they are indeed loosing money. They even started a new campaign not long ago, everything could be explained as a form of long time investment, when they don't need more advertisement they would stop their campaigns and start only profiting.

Now back to the topic, OP did in fact lie about somethings but he did not lie about the kelly investment option, seems..

Thanks for reviving the bitcoin gambling industry. It was almost dried up.

 I don't see how that is your problem... if anything, you should appreciate our efforts to revive this dice industry 

will dooglus leave negative trust to leen93 for lying to him? as he used false information fed by leen to ask if "we will not pay" statement is official policy of Da Dice. 

sounds plausible to me.

but seriously, they already spent over 60btc on their sig campaign alone (https://blockchain.info/de/address/13tcm29K3N39uSsiDRLN9aQwLdvA9zFWJv) while only making  43btc profit on site (stats.dadice.com). and that profit probably also includes a substantial amount of faucet btc they already owned before. there is no way this is turning into something profitable.

are they some kind of honeypot? like the us gov going after american gamblers?  

ps: I sell tinfoil for xmr, pm me  

well they could be many things but definitely nowhere even near to what you been trying to show them as Name one site which didn't have bugs or other serious issues right from their start 


better luck next time

Who knows. Maybe a hope if they keep going, people will believe they aren't a scam and start throwing money at it. Who really knows what these guys are up to. They are seriously incompetent at Math, writing websites and running a business. So maybe its a high school project?

I removed my post because I mentioned how you copied my page but it seems you removed that page anyway.

There certainly is no problem with the kelly system at PRC which has been in place since Jan 2015 and no one has found any issues. In fact investors have made a profit of around 1400 Bitcoin with that system.

But when things keep going wrong on your site you can feel free to keep taking shots at PRC if it makes you feel better.