I believe part of the problem is the way luck updates. I'm not positive for Deepbit, but I know most pools update luck when a round ends. If the pool is in a bad round, it means luck will show up as good for a long time, even though if this round were to end RIGHT NOW the luck would be bad.
As a result, once the bad round finishes, it will continue to drag down the luck until the 24 hour window is over and the block is no longer hurting the average. A 4 or 6 hour block on Deepbit would generally mean the whole day will be "bad luck", even if the following 23 hours had more blocks than expected.
It's also just human nature to single out when things look bad, and look over things when they're normal or slightly better than expected, so bad luck sticks out much more in your recall.
Topic: [DEAD] DeepBit.net PPS+Prop,instant payouts, we pay for INVALID BLOCKS too - page 59. (Read 1601405 times)
September 01, 2012, 08:53:25 PM
September 01, 2012, 08:15:49 PM
Hi there,
I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall, but it seems that when deepbit is having bad luck, it tends to last quite a while. I was wondering if anyone could offer suppositions on why this might be.
I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall, but it seems that when deepbit is having bad luck, it tends to last quite a while. I was wondering if anyone could offer suppositions on why this might be.
How long is a while? Also, how much longer is this than the average good luck run? Can you post the results here when you're done?
I think if you go back and analyse the last several thousand blocks, you wont notice any significant difference between good and bad luck.
I completely agree that over time luck does not play a factor in payout at all. It evens out.
My wonder is, that when luck is bad. It seems to stay bad for more than 12 hours. A run of 6 hours bad seems to lead to a run of 24 hours bad luck.
It could be all in my head. I have no real numbers to back this up. Just memories of thinking "Oh luck is bad this morning", seemingly often followed by "Wow, luck is still bad this evening"
Thinking a bit more about it, a really really long block solve, say 4+ hours weighs really heavy if you get a few more of the normal 1+ hour block solves. This is probably what I'm seeing (in my head).
I see what you mean. Yes, if you average luck by day instead of by round it will seem like poorer luck on average, and this is the same for every pool. But take luck over say 30 rounds instead of 1 day and the luck average is closer to normal.
There are a bunch of stats I've collected for most pools: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.au/2012/08/26th-august-weekly-pool-statistics.html
Makes it easy to see any significant differences.
September 01, 2012, 08:10:17 PM
Hi there,
I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall, but it seems that when deepbit is having bad luck, it tends to last quite a while. I was wondering if anyone could offer suppositions on why this might be.
I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall, but it seems that when deepbit is having bad luck, it tends to last quite a while. I was wondering if anyone could offer suppositions on why this might be.
How long is a while? Also, how much longer is this than the average good luck run? Can you post the results here when you're done?
I think if you go back and analyse the last several thousand blocks, you wont notice any significant difference between good and bad luck.
I completely agree that over time luck does not play a factor in payout at all. It evens out.
My wonder is, that when luck is bad. It seems to stay bad for more than 12 hours. A run of 6 hours bad seems to lead to a run of 24 hours bad luck.
It could be all in my head. I have no real numbers to back this up. Just memories of thinking "Oh luck is bad this morning", seemingly often followed by "Wow, luck is still bad this evening"
Thinking a bit more about it, a really really long block solve, say 4+ hours weighs really heavy if you get a few more of the normal 1+ hour block solves. This is probably what I'm seeing (in my head).
September 01, 2012, 07:52:52 PM
Hi there,
I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall, but it seems that when deepbit is having bad luck, it tends to last quite a while. I was wondering if anyone could offer suppositions on why this might be.
I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall, but it seems that when deepbit is having bad luck, it tends to last quite a while. I was wondering if anyone could offer suppositions on why this might be.
How long is a while? Also, how much longer is this than the average good luck run? Can you post the results here when you're done?
I think if you go back and analyse the last several thousand blocks, you wont notice any significant difference between good and bad luck.
September 01, 2012, 05:37:48 PM
Hi there,
I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall, but it seems that when deepbit is having bad luck, it tends to last quite a while. I was wondering if anyone could offer suppositions on why this might be. Good luck never seems to last as long as bad luck. We had a +98% day a little over a week ago. I'm not sure I've ever seen a -98% day. Then again, There are many more -20% days than +20% days.
Best I could come up with is somehow the hashes are salted with the calendar and some days are extra salty.
To be clear, I love deepbit. I prefer running in proportional mode. 99.9% of my hashes go there and the other .1% goes to a backup PPS pool when deepbit can't be reached. I'm just genuinely curious as to why bad days seem to last a good 24+ hours instead of 6, or 12 hours. I'm in it for the long haul till GPUs aren't profitable and I realize that over time it all evens out. It sure is nice when there are -50% days vs +60% days like we had yesterday
I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall, but it seems that when deepbit is having bad luck, it tends to last quite a while. I was wondering if anyone could offer suppositions on why this might be. Good luck never seems to last as long as bad luck. We had a +98% day a little over a week ago. I'm not sure I've ever seen a -98% day. Then again, There are many more -20% days than +20% days.
Best I could come up with is somehow the hashes are salted with the calendar and some days are extra salty.
To be clear, I love deepbit. I prefer running in proportional mode. 99.9% of my hashes go there and the other .1% goes to a backup PPS pool when deepbit can't be reached. I'm just genuinely curious as to why bad days seem to last a good 24+ hours instead of 6, or 12 hours. I'm in it for the long haul till GPUs aren't profitable and I realize that over time it all evens out. It sure is nice when there are -50% days vs +60% days like we had yesterday
September 01, 2012, 01:43:14 PM
Indeed. Its almost as if Gyrsur only wants to know what IP to DDoS?
Or, it's almost as if he is accusing Tycho of mining blocks with our hash power for his own profit. But maybe I'm misreading what he is saying.
Sam
I was curious about the node I posted earlier because it was running the deepbit website (or some excellent facsimile) and chrome popped up some BS about how I could be going to somewhere that wasn't what I thought it was.
as for 83.169.22.26?? shrug
September 01, 2012, 01:22:20 PM
Indeed. Its almost as if Gyrsur only wants to know what IP to DDoS?
Or, it's almost as if he is accusing Tycho of mining blocks with our hash power for his own profit. But maybe I'm misreading what he is saying.
Sam
September 01, 2012, 01:19:23 PM
Indeed. Its almost as if Gyrsur only wants to know what IP to DDoS?
September 01, 2012, 01:17:35 PM
See this site for correct data: http://blockorigin.pfoe.be/blocklist.php
in the meantime blockchain.info has maintained your new IP.
http://blockchain.info/blocks/83.169.22.26 is associated with the right pool and hidden from public.
Gyrsur this is getting stupid. We really don't care if deepbit changes its IP's to hide from the public. I would rather have the mining pool working then have it under a constant DDOS.
+100
September 01, 2012, 12:03:43 PM
See this site for correct data: http://blockorigin.pfoe.be/blocklist.php
in the meantime blockchain.info has maintained your new IP.
http://blockchain.info/blocks/83.169.22.26 is associated with the right pool and hidden from public.
Gyrsur this is getting stupid. We really don't care if deepbit changes its IP's to hide from the public. I would rather have the mining pool working then have it under a constant DDOS.
September 01, 2012, 09:46:17 AM
Also please read the bitcoin whitepaper and the entire bitcoin wiki, you'll like it.
This may help you in understanding how the bitcoin's p2p is working.
This may help you in understanding how the bitcoin's p2p is working.
Bazinga!
questions?
September 01, 2012, 09:42:56 AM
See this site for correct data: http://blockorigin.pfoe.be/blocklist.php
in the meantime blockchain.info has maintained your new IP.
http://blockchain.info/blocks/83.169.22.26 is associated with the right pool and hidden from public.
September 01, 2012, 05:33:29 AM
Also please read the bitcoin whitepaper and the entire bitcoin wiki, you'll like it.
This may help you in understanding how the bitcoin's p2p is working.
This may help you in understanding how the bitcoin's p2p is working.
Bazinga!
September 01, 2012, 03:26:45 AM
yes you are right: ""'a big player' changed IPs". we figured it out due argumentation.
No, you didn't.It doesn't means that someone changed IPs at all. Just now blockchain.info receives some blocks via another relay that can be totally unrelated to both mining node and blockchain.info's node.
Blockchain.info is NOT connected to all the nodes in the network and even knowing correct IPs of each pool won't give 100% accuracy. Also, even if blockchain.info is connected directly, a new block can find it's way to their node via someone else first.
See this site for correct data: http://blockorigin.pfoe.be/blocklist.php
Also please read the bitcoin whitepaper and the entire bitcoin wiki, you'll like it.
This may help you in understanding how the bitcoin's p2p is working.
September 01, 2012, 03:03:48 AM
You mean "a big player" changed IPs. There is no new big player, and no sign of asics yet:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
You are correct that the blockchain is critically important to bitcoin, but who actually mines those blocks, or for that matter, with what kind of hardware, is utterly unimportant to the networks health. All that matter is whats inside the block.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
You are correct that the blockchain is critically important to bitcoin, but who actually mines those blocks, or for that matter, with what kind of hardware, is utterly unimportant to the networks health. All that matter is whats inside the block.
yes you are right: ""'a big player' changed IPs". we figured it out due argumentation. this is how mind behind open source works. have to do now other things.
September 01, 2012, 02:59:49 AM
You mean "a big player" changed IPs. There is no new big player, and no sign of asics yet:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
You are correct that the blockchain is critically important to bitcoin, but who actually mines those blocks, or for that matter, with what kind of hardware, is utterly unimportant to the networks health. All that matter is whats inside the block.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
You are correct that the blockchain is critically important to bitcoin, but who actually mines those blocks, or for that matter, with what kind of hardware, is utterly unimportant to the networks health. All that matter is whats inside the block.
September 01, 2012, 02:50:42 AM
EDIT: and BTW Bitcoin is an open source project. there is now hidden information. accept it or leave. if it will be destroyed due public information than it was not strong enough!
Guess what, the ownership of wallets is "hidden" too. Should blockchain be able to publish the owner IDs? Maybe private keys too? There is no need whatsoever to know who mined a block. Its interesting to know, and we have pretty good information on it, but it doesnt hurt bitcoin one yota if we dont know.
for sure it is very interesting for the healthy of the network. the network is the foundation of Bitcoin this is where the value come from! a big player poped up from nowhere! this is a special time in the history of Bitcoin before the GoLive of ASIC. don't expect relaxed players and relax the situtation with wise actions! thanks!
September 01, 2012, 02:41:55 AM
EDIT: and BTW Bitcoin is an open source project. there is now hidden information. accept it or leave. if it will be destroyed due public information than it was not strong enough!
Guess what, the ownership of wallets is "hidden" too. Should blockchain be able to publish the owner IDs? Maybe private keys too? There is no need whatsoever to know who mined a block. Its interesting to know, and we have pretty good information on it, but it doesnt hurt bitcoin one yota if we dont know.
September 01, 2012, 02:27:36 AM
is linked to a block which blockchain.info claimed solved relayed by IP 83.169.22.26
FTFY
right! relayed! but can also mean solved! nobody knows! IP 83.169.22.26 is a datacenter location with 4 hosts this means this is not a hobby project, it has a sense --> http://bgp.he.net/ip/83.169.22.26
EDIT: BTW there exist a big player since two days! who is it??? --> http://blockchain.info/blocks/83.169.22.26
Gyrsur, calm down. There is no funny business going on here. We already told you blockchain just makes guesses. I think they correct their incorrect guesses after the pools publish their blocks, just like blockorigin scrapes pool websites to identify blocks. That big player from above is.. you guessed it, deepbit. Deepbit is the biggest pool, they run god knows how many servers and they are quite a popular DDoS target. Them moving to a new DC or not putting all their IPs on their website is not exactly shocking.
a better way to do the business can be: deepbit contact blockchain before they run a new DC location and blockchain can make this combination between IP and pool without showing the new IP serveral days for the public. how easy is that?
EDIT: and BTW Bitcoin is an open source project. there is now hidden information. accept it or leave. if it will be destroyed due public information than it was not strong enough!
September 01, 2012, 02:16:30 AM
is linked to a block which blockchain.info claimed solved relayed by IP 83.169.22.26
FTFY
right! relayed! but can also mean solved! nobody knows! IP 83.169.22.26 is a datacenter location with 4 hosts this means this is not a hobby project, it has a sense --> http://bgp.he.net/ip/83.169.22.26
EDIT: BTW there exist a big player since two days! who is it??? --> http://blockchain.info/blocks/83.169.22.26
Gyrsur, calm down. There is no funny business going on here. We already told you blockchain just makes guesses. I think they correct their incorrect guesses after the pools publish their blocks, just like blockorigin scrapes pool websites to identify blocks. That big player from above is.. you guessed it, deepbit. Deepbit is the biggest pool, they run god knows how many servers and they are quite a popular DDoS target. Them moving to a new DC or not putting all their IPs on their website is not exactly shocking.
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