Topic: Dec 29 to Approx Jan 12th diff thread (4%) to (7%) (Read 6379 times)
Bumping Up for philipma1957's difficulty cleanup.
Locking thread please use - https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/jan-12th-to-approx-jan-27th-diff-thread-35-922956 for next difficulty talk.
Jan 12 2015 43,971,662,056 8.20% 314,761,417 GH/s
8.2 percent change for this period.
8.2 percent change for this period.
Did bitstamp issue was to blame for this price reduction, or is it was just a new year spending time ? And now emty January for many ?
It's has just been general a downward trend since the peak in November 2013. I expect the trend to continue as home mining becomes less and less relevant.
Supply and demand! Large-scale mining operations dump their coins as soon as they're mined while home miners tend to hold. And that causes the price of BTC to drop since there is more supply than demand.
Desert and low humidity... look into evaporative cooling. Water, pump, wet pad and fan and you are good to go!
I read that they got ~25c constant in mining farms in china with this style cooling! In the desert!
Hvac for miners has to be few times larger than for simple home use... not really worth!
I read that they got ~25c constant in mining farms in china with this style cooling! In the desert!
Hvac for miners has to be few times larger than for simple home use... not really worth!
Meh, not worth it when the temp outside is 115f. I have a portable evaporative cooler but they only lower the temp 5-15 degrees Fahrenheit below the ambient temp. Everything gets shutdown on the first day it hits 90f.
Did bitstamp issue was to blame for this price reduction, or is it was just a new year spending time ? And now emty January for many ?
8.20% - not too shabby, Im really happy that it was <10%. I think we will see a lot of hardware turn off at this new difficulty, and next jump could be around -2% if price doesnt move upwards drastically and soon
I'm not sure that 8.2% will push that many miners to switching off their hardware, especially as the next difficulty may reduce again, but the 10% reduction in the USD/BTC price probably will as the cumulative effect is nearer 17%.
In equilibrium (coin price not changing, and no major technology breakthroughs) we'd expect to see something in the range of 2x to 3x difficulty change per year (2x if there's no major technology investment, 3x if there is). 2x is approximately 0.2% expansion per day, while 3x is approximately 0.3%; those equate to approximately 2.7% and 4.3% difficulty changes respectively, but the noise margin is as large (if not larger). If the BTC price stays depressed, however, then I'd definitely expect to see some reductions in the overall hash rate. A lot of miners will obsolete older equipment and it's not clear that that equipment will really have a major resale value and is therefore less likely to reappear on the network in new locations.
8.20% - not too shabby, Im really happy that it was <10%. I think we will see a lot of hardware turn off at this new difficulty, and next jump could be around -2% if price doesnt move upwards drastically and soon
8.2 is okay new estimates:
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty: 45,965,768,087 (+4.53%) ----- note always high if the last jump was a plus
Adjust time: After 2016 Blocks, About 14.6 days
Hashrate(?): 308,829,479 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated: 12:30 (4.3 minutes ago)
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/
Blocks 338688
Total BTC 13.717M
Difficulty 43971662056
Estimated 43931416923 in 2016 blks this is (-0.09%)
Network total 327134.300 Thash/s
Blocks/hour 6.75 / 534 s
(-0.09%) to (+4.53%)
43931416923 to 45,965,768,087
price is 266 usd
8.20% - not too shabby, Im really happy that it was <10%. I think we will see a lot of hardware turn off at this new difficulty, and next jump could be around -2% if price doesnt move upwards drastically and soon
Well bitwisdom is now going up not down in it's estimate.
Bitcoin Difficulty: 40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty: 43,746,172,612 (+7.64%)
Adjust time: After 67 Blocks, About 10.8 hours
Safe to say this will be a 7 percent unless it gets a lot of hash power and goes to 8.
Bitcoin Difficulty: 40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty: 43,746,172,612 (+7.64%)
Adjust time: After 67 Blocks, About 10.8 hours
Safe to say this will be a 7 percent unless it gets a lot of hash power and goes to 8.
A small drop since you posted Still we were just a tiny bit over 14% at one time so the 7 and change is a lot better.
Bitcoin Difficulty: 40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty: 43,717,800,414 (+7.57%)
Adjust time: After 36 Blocks, About 5.8 hours
Hashrate(?): 297,674,047 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.3 minutes
Updated: 8:15 (5.7 minutes ago)
Well bitwisdom is now going up not down in it's estimate.
Bitcoin Difficulty: 40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty: 43,746,172,612 (+7.64%)
Adjust time: After 67 Blocks, About 10.8 hours
Safe to say this will be a 7 percent unless it gets a lot of hash power and goes to 8.
Bitcoin Difficulty: 40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty: 43,746,172,612 (+7.64%)
Adjust time: After 67 Blocks, About 10.8 hours
Safe to say this will be a 7 percent unless it gets a lot of hash power and goes to 8.
So back to my original point a guy with a 1000 s-3 farm with 6 cent power 8 cent total costs is in a very hard spot to be.
these 250-275 a coin prices are very hard on farmers in the 500th to 1000th range
these 250-275 a coin prices are very hard on farmers in the 500th to 1000th range
No question. At under $200 then miners with very low operating costs can just about hang in, but many others won't and this mid range will be the worst affected. They rely on other people to manufacture the hardware they're using and thus have to pay the manufacturer's margins too (although those manufacturers will also be on low margins because not many people will be buying). Large miners who have their own ASIC designs and can run on very thin margins can probably survive the best but they're >> 1 PH.
The miners in the best position are those that have just about seen an ROI on their existing hardware but have mid-to-late 2014 designs that are the most power efficient. That's a relatively small subset of miners though.
negative diff? not yet...
i tell you something negative about mining: DARK AGE IS COMING!
i tell you something negative about mining: DARK AGE IS COMING!
might see a negative tbh. if anyone was considering shutting off hardware durin ghte last few days, a 7% drop in mining income might be the final blow.
To go negative at this point in the difficulty cycle would pretty-much require 90% of the network to shut down immediately. We may well see another negative in the next difficulty window though. The anticipated 6% to 7% is actually well within the level of statistical noise and may be a slight over-estimate of the hashing capacity in which case a negative change in one of the next difficulty windows is quite likely.
Here's some more data on how the difficulty will continually change, even if the hash rate remains constant: http://hashingit.com/analysis/28-reach-for-the-ear-defenders
I hope we get in 6 percent but with less then a day left looking like low 7's
Bitcoin Difficulty: 40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty: 43,575,522,670 (+7.22%)
Adjust time: After 100 Blocks, About 16.1 hours
So was a little bit of a weird week with such a huge variance but looks like it will end up not great but decent considering.
Bitcoin Difficulty: 40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty: 43,575,522,670 (+7.22%)
Adjust time: After 100 Blocks, About 16.1 hours
So was a little bit of a weird week with such a huge variance but looks like it will end up not great but decent considering.
yeah 7 to 8 is far better then 14.
Next 2 jumps are important. be nice to see 3's or less.
might see a negative tbh. if anyone was considering shutting off hardware durin ghte last few days, a 7% drop in mining income might be the final blow.
I hope we get in 6 percent but with less then a day left looking like low 7's
Bitcoin Difficulty: 40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty: 43,575,522,670 (+7.22%)
Adjust time: After 100 Blocks, About 16.1 hours
So was a little bit of a weird week with such a huge variance but looks like it will end up not great but decent considering.
Bitcoin Difficulty: 40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty: 43,575,522,670 (+7.22%)
Adjust time: After 100 Blocks, About 16.1 hours
So was a little bit of a weird week with such a huge variance but looks like it will end up not great but decent considering.
yeah 7 to 8 is far better then 14.
Next 2 jumps are important. be nice to see 3's or less.
I hope we get in 6 percent but with less then a day left looking like low 7's
Bitcoin Difficulty: 40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty: 43,575,522,670 (+7.22%)
Adjust time: After 100 Blocks, About 16.1 hours
So was a little bit of a weird week with such a huge variance but looks like it will end up not great but decent considering.
Bitcoin Difficulty: 40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty: 43,575,522,670 (+7.22%)
Adjust time: After 100 Blocks, About 16.1 hours
So was a little bit of a weird week with such a huge variance but looks like it will end up not great but decent considering.
The good news, miners provided 100% of my heat so far this winter. But I have gas heat so it hasn't significantly reduced my electric bill.
yeah that bummed me too - the heat of 1Kwh (~$0.15) is equal to about $0.02-0.025 worth of natural gas, so savings are marginal
If your ambient gets above 40c then you need evaporative cooling, cause just replacing hotter air with hot air is not enough.
Desert and low humidity... look into evaporative cooling. Water, pump, wet pad and fan and you are good to go!
I read that they got ~25c constant in mining farms in china with this style cooling! In the desert!
Hvac for miners has to be few times larger than for simple home use... not really worth!
I read that they got ~25c constant in mining farms in china with this style cooling! In the desert!
Hvac for miners has to be few times larger than for simple home use... not really worth!
The mining farms very GREATLY on quality. Most of them it's airflow that is the key. Moving old air out and new air in. If you do it wrong it gets to hot and any miner with temp sensor can have lots of trouble. Big fans and big exhusts can be very important at data center level. (Also depends on miner something such as the 1T dragon shoot out very hot air, some new miners can do a lot less heat)
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