Topic: Dec 29 to Approx Jan 12th diff thread (4%) to (7%) - page 4. (Read 6379 times)

well it is settling down somewhat  and coins went up a bit.  so wait and see i what I will do for now

Estimated Next Difficulty:    45,941,091,286 (+13.04%)

From the graph at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty looks like it's starting to hoover around there
At least for the moment

This looks like a more realistic estimate. First 500 blocks of this cycle were about 8% faster, next 500 were about 10%-11% faster.

To get the total average to 14%+ like Bitcoinwisdom is suggesting the remaining ~900 blocks would need to be done at 20%+, or less than 8 minutes per block. It doesn't look like that's happening.

well on the hopeful side http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

 has a  lower diff

 Estimated   44588284977 in 885 blks

that is (+9.71%)

We might just hit 15 percent... ouch

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,521,397,337 (+14.47%)
Adjust time:    After 901 Blocks, About 5.5 days

But if you look at past weeks it's been a while since one so ugly last over 10:
Sep 25 2014    34,661,425,924    16.20%    248,116,151 GH/s

And last around 10:
Nov 05 2014    39,603,666,252    10.05%    283,494,086 GH/s

So quite a few good months hopefully it is just one week of this we will see if past repeats itself. 

Why should they pump the price? why should they give away their dollars to you and me?...
Maybe they have invested 10mil in hardware and 10mil they have it so that they don't sell not even 1btc!
Or they can use the money to drive out competition, as you kind of said in an earlier post!
The chinese market have huge volumes! Some dump on btcchina made the dive under 300$/btc. The next day stamp & finex made it go under 270
Back to pump the price by big manufacturers: i don't see a reason to give their dollars to the competition! It's like shooting themselves in the foot!



You think like a miner and not like a producer of hardware and like a business!!! simple as that!
What do you expect to do with old gear? recycle it? When they can sell to cheap ass miners? Coming out with S6 will drive the price of s4 down down down. They dont need to do that!!!
IF they come out with S6 in 4months, they will have absolutely no problems selling it! that's why they keep it for themselves until they liquidate old stock!
They kind of are alone atm on the market, i mean there is SPT with professional hardware and there is bitmain with less manufactured... Where i'm going with this:  they don't need to race against themselves. They don't need to push on the market new and new and newer products as they are the ''main'' manufacturers.

They actually race, but not against us, but themselves! They need and want us as buyers of their old stock and as ''investors'' when we make a pre order!


An they race for 2016 and 2020 halving, some will give up on 2016, some not...
After 2020, we can declare a winner or at least this is the way i see it now!

One thing is true we are not in their inner circles .  Well I wish them luck trying to do whatever they are trying to do.  Not!! LOL


Diff has moved to +14%

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,452,535,177 (+14.30%)
Adjust time:   After 983 Blocks, About 6.1 days
Hashrate(?):   331,108,951 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.9 minutes
3 blocks: 26.7 minutes
6 blocks: 53.4 minutes
Updated:   23:30 (4.6 minutes ago)

I don't pretend to understand the BTC exchanges. I don't trade or speculate. And my theories on the business practices of companies like Bitfury are pure conjecture.

But from what I've seen in the past two years, it's always been a race for manufacturers to try to dominate the network with no apparent concern for the price of BTC or the network hashrate. Although Bitfury claims to hold BTC and not dump to pay for development costs. They use ample VC investments to fund operations. Apparently they have longterm plans that you and I aren't privy to, lol.

if you think that is true and they are really doing that it is a flawed business on their part and they won't get their money back via difficulty growth.

 If they are doing 10's of millions of dollars  in data center's  just 1 simple question to you .

Here goes the question : 


Why don't they pump coin price via  the exchanges?  They can't be that stupid.    We all watch coins soar last Nov.

  So If knc and bitfury are dropping 10 million each to build out and jump diff why aren't they pumping the  coin prices up via purchases on the

exchanges?  We have almost no volume on exchanges worldwide.  How many coins each day trade? not much.

+1

Retail sales to home miners has very little impact on the network hashrate. It's the "background players", the people not posting on Internet forums, who are moving the hashrate up.

And they don't give a crap about the difficulty! They need to quickly recoup their 10's of millions of dollars in developments costs so they can develop their next-next gen hardware. They aren't going to hold anything back. The chip is designed and made, the hardware is assembled and the completed miner is installed in a datacenter.

I strongly suspect that Bitfury has just started the datacenter-stuffing phase.

I would agree.  With cheap electricity S3's, S4's, C1's are still profitable.   Their S2 still has some life depending on electricity rate.     Bitmain is not new they know what they are doing.  They are a company they can mine or sell and make a profit.

no as your method raise diff.  raise diff at this point in time is not helpful.  It is also short term thinking.  They are better off mining with any and all s-6's if they have them.
 then they can offload all the s-3's in bulk sales of 100 or more .  they have 0 need to sell any s-6's until every s-3 s-4 c-1 they have is gone.
     but take it all with a grain of salt as in WTF do I really know?  I just a guy typing on a keyboard in New Jersey.  your guess is as good as mine.

S3 units will still dump for anyone who focuses on the $/GH and not the w/GH

Once they sell the miner, they have the cash in their hand (I assume they autoconvert their BTC to USD). There's no external risk at that point, they've already made their profit. If they sell their miners, they don't have to worry about difficulty either (their customers do).
If they mine with their hardware, they take on substantial external risk. BTC volatility can severely impact their mining business--and so can difficulty.

In a sense then, you can see that selling hardware is like a transfer of risk from the seller to the buyer. The seller gets a smaller guaranteed return, while the buyer thinks that they can get a larger return which isn't guaranteed.

Which brings us back to them having S6s. I strongly believe that they would be selling their miners as there is little motivation to keep their stuff secret. The more miners they sell, the more money they make--simple as that.

A lot is involved to answer that question.

So

" risk-free " is very hard to decide  as a true  or not true  statement



The builders of the gear need to balance /juggle 3 to 5 things.

Diff jumps to price of btc.  
Cost of new gear design.

Shipping an s-6 is more costly then the new light weight s-5.

 Look how they dropped priced on the s-5  and hooked early buyers into wanting more via coupons.
 An s-5 is now 350 shipped it was 450 shipped.
 Not as easy to do with the s-6

It was already in farms in november? I don't recall seeing anything about that.

If they sell their S6 then they could get way more money for it. They would have the best equipment w/gh on the market, and they could charge quite the markup. Let's speculate for a second and say the S6 is 3TH/1000W. They could easily sell it for $1400 (1/2 of a SP35), or they could risk mining with it and worry about BTC price and difficulty...

Why mine with it when they could sell them risk-free for more money?

NO!

That will hurt the dumping of s4 and c1.
See s5! It was already in farms in november (or maybe earlier?) and left on 27dec!

Why sell s6 and keep s5? s6 will(i think they already have it...) be more power efficient and easier to handle than s5

Pumping it? Haha, that GB is over. Bitmain is selling a bunch of used S3+s at very low rates in the computer hardware subforum, they're probably clearing out their datacenter and replacing them with S5s. That might explain a little more. If bitmain had S6s or C2s, they'd be selling them--people will pay more than what they're worth!

You are pumping it too much! there are players in the background that we didn't even heard of!

Maybe bitmain hit the switch on s6 and c2! or just keeping their farms full even if the are selling batch 4 atm.

yeah and they use bitpay for payments so you can't see how many were sold.  if you go to bitmaintech you can trace your payments back to some very big btc addresses.

It is possible that  more then 2000 s-5's have been sold that is 2ph but if antminers sold 10000 and spondoolies sold 5000 you have 12ph and 7ph  that is 19 ph.

   
If coins stay at 270 and diff goes to 50xxxxx .

s-3's won't be very good

an s-3 makes 17 cents a day if :

diff is 50xxxx
power is 12 cents
coins are 270

So all gear above .8 watts will be a loser very soon.
s-3
c-1  will be loser's by feb 1

s-4 will be a loser by mar 1