Topic: Dec 29 to Approx Jan 12th diff thread (4%) to (7%) - page 3. (Read 6379 times)

Honestly it's all speculation.  I could make up possibilities of old miners being sold and replaced with more efficient and more powerful miners, but as far as what's happening most operations are pretty quiet.

The good news... looks like under 9 percent change.  Considering we were looking at some estimates much higher I consider it not to bad.  Hopefully week after is lower though.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty:    44,177,958,509 (+8.70%)
Adjust time:    After 386 Blocks, About 2.5 days
Hashrate(?):    291,712,236 GH/s

Sounds plausible, works just like a regular shipping warehouse, only with all the stuff plugged in. Warm an cozy too

S5 comes standard with dust build-up! ...

Lol, why can't anyone understand what I'm saying? I agree that the manufacturers most likely have "testing" facilities that can handle several (or more) PHs. But they'd be fools to only use that infrastructure for testing. There would never be any empty space in those racks. They'd have machines running at capacity non-stop.

So when batches are sold to the public, the oldest miners are shipped and newly manufactured miners are put in their place. Voila! No hashrate spike... just steady growth as newer, more efficient miners take the place of old gear.

I would agree I bet Bitmain and SP both have the capability to test units before shipping out.  Also they make in batches so I would guess they plug it in till time of sale.  It is not practical to make it and pack away in a box till it is bought. That is all guessing though. 

Bitwisdom keeps looking a little better each day.  Looks like hopefully under 10 percent change at this point:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty:    44,652,760,104 (+9.87%)
Adjust time:    After 450 Blocks, About 2.9 days
Hashrate(?):    301,808,962 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 27.8 minutes
6 blocks: 55.6 minutes

Bitmain has a large facility that could handle several PH - and its pretty likely that they test the S5 units (even briefly) before shipping them. similarly, SP-T has been shipping thousands of the SP20 unit, and likely performs some testing before its boxed and shipped.

there is usually some big varience swings in the difficulty calculations, but i think theres also smaller ripples caused by manufacturers bringing several hundred units online for testing, running them overnight, then shutting them down to ship a day or two later.

No manufacturer has the infrastructure to handle 5-10PHs just sitting around idle and only use it for testing. If they have that kind of capacity, they're using it 24/7/365.

It why I don't strongly disagree.

Still there is a mix of :

sell off the s-3 to a low power guy.
the s-3 dies and gives up the ghost.
 The s-3 simply is turned off .

The s-3 is most likely close to ⅓ of the network. at least ¼
The s-1 was about 1/5 the network.  The network started a slowdown in growth from the s-1 to s-3 conversion.
as the s-1's slowly stopped running.
   The s-3's will not all be sent to 3 cent a kwatt data centers. Some will be used by the little guy as a winter space heater they are a great space heater .
If you were already going to use a space heater you may as well use an s-3.
  I still see the s-3 slowing growth over the next 3-5 months. To what degree we need only wait to see.
[/quote]

There are a mix of S2's and Dragons aswell.  They eventually be obsolete.   I expect the data centers to try to sell them at what price hard to tell.  Or they can run them till it's no longer worth while and upgrade.   Sometimes selling is not worth it at very end of miners life.

My point is that in virtually all cases mentioned above, the "Data Center" (or Philip) then SELL the mining device to someone else. The person (or company) that bought it then fires it right up again, after the shipping delay. So while the device moved, it didn't actually leave the network. Maybe the purchaser didn't make a good choice, but they didn't buy it with the intent of scrapping it when it arrived. So while S3's will be leaving various places, in most cases, they come back to life somewhere else. The total network hash rate didn't change because they left a big mining company. This "rotation" of gear doesn't do one whit to reduce, or even slow down, the rise in difficulty. The hash rate continued to grow.

The only time it changes is when those folks still running a Jalapeno, or BL Single, or whatever turn it off and leave it off (or scrap/destroy it).
[/quote]

It why I don't strongly disagree.

Still there is a mix of :

sell off the s-3 to a low power guy.
the s-3 dies and gives up the ghost.
 The s-3 simply is turned off .

The s-3 is most likely close to ⅓ of the network. at least ¼
The s-1 was about 1/5 the network.  The network started a slowdown in growth from the s-1 to s-3 conversion.
as the s-1's slowly stopped running.
   The s-3's will not all be sent to 3 cent a kwatt data centers. Some will be used by the little guy as a winter space heater they are a great space heater .
If you were already going to use a space heater you may as well use an s-3.
  I still see the s-3 slowing growth over the next 3-5 months. To what degree we need only wait to see.

[quote author=notlist3d link=topic=909473.msg10083862#msg10083862 date=1420745957

The thing about the "big" companies and big data centers is they have cheap electricity (for the most part).   Their profitable period will be more then a lot of individuals simply because of electricity price.

I agree with philipma1957 that they go pretty quick once not profitable.  They will try to sell off old stock get what money they can, and then put in new equipment.   They don't run for a loss. They might not get it done in a day but in a matter of weeks.  I know of one that the electricity was two high for Dragons at a data center, and they trucked it all to a place with much cheaper costs.  Been a while but took around a week to get it all done and set up. (This was a while back at this point I doubt they would move again but be unplugged and sold.
[/quote]

My point is that in virtually all cases mentioned above, the "Data Center" (or Philip) then SELL the mining device to someone else. The person (or company) that bought it then fires it right up again, after the shipping delay. So while the device moved, it didn't actually leave the network. Maybe the purchaser didn't make a good choice, but they didn't buy it with the intent of scrapping it when it arrived. So while S3's will be leaving various places, in most cases, they come back to life somewhere else. The total network hash rate didn't change because they left a big mining company. This "rotation" of gear doesn't do one whit to reduce, or even slow down, the rise in difficulty. The hash rate continued to grow.

The only time it changes is when those folks still running a Jalapeno, or BL Single, or whatever turn it off and leave it off (or scrap/destroy it).

The thing about the "big" companies and big data centers is they have cheap electricity (for the most part).   Their profitable period will be more then a lot of individuals simply because of electricity price.

I agree with philipma1957 that they go pretty quick once not profitable.  They will try to sell off old stock get what money they can, and then put in new equipment.   They don't run for a loss. They might not get it done in a day but in a matter of weeks.  I know of one that the electricity was two high for Dragons at a data center, and they trucked it all to a place with much cheaper costs.  Been a while but took around a week to get it all done and set up. (This was a while back at this point I doubt they would move again but be unplugged and sold.

Disagree but not strongly.
I have run losing miners for a few weeks hoping for a price jump in the coin.

But price went from 350 to 280 and diff looks to be jumping hard.

So At 18cent kwatts in europe to 25 cents kwatt in europe that drop from 350 to 280 hurt a lot of gear the 40 to 44 jump in a few days will hurt those miners more.

At 18 cents a kwatt  and 350 usd coin price diff of 40 you make .79 cents a day on 2 miners

at 18 cents a kwatt and 286 usd coin price diff of 45 you lose .29 cents a day on 2 miners.

yeah you have 2 miners you say fuck it  I will run them and hope for a price in coin jump.

If you are me and have 12 to 20 you turn them off sell them and buy some s-5's  sp20's or you use the sales money  to buy and hold a coin or 2.

There are a lot of s-3 miners and they are now faced with.
 Do I run them at a loss ?
 Do I sell them off take what I can get?


 Starting next jump s-3 miners will begin to shut off gear. Here and there but not every where.

I think there is a pretty long latency from when a miner stops being "economically viable" to when it is actually taken off the network, and not returned later because it was sold. A sale from "Big Mining Company" to "Home Miner #2967" doesn't do anything but inject a short term drop, since "Home Miner #2967"  will mine with the device for a while. Even if he made a poor choice, nobody buys a miner in order to not run it when it arrives (excluding BFL pre-order victims).

I'll bet it actually takes months, before a device leaves the network, and is scrapped. Certainly way longer than a difficulty jump or two and a few more spasms in the price of Bitcoin.

the varience is pretty big, dropping back down to expected levels right now, hopefully that will hold for a few days and the jump will be around 7-8%. Im guessing a few things are happening this timeframe simultaneously:
1) Paycoin miners returned 50PH to bitcoin. however the price drop and difficulty spike likely made a lot of these machines realize they are not profitable for BTC anymore
2) There are probably a lot of people mining at >1w/gh unprofitably who were doing so in hopes of long-term price. With those hopes shattered <$300 the hardware is turning off.
3) low BTC price means little buying power for new hardware.
4) the spike could be the 24-72hr testing of bitmain or SP-T hardware before it ships to customers. not likely, but it could account for 5-10PH swings as stuff is plugged in, setup, tested, turned off, then boxed to ship and the cycle repeats for another batch.

5) selfish mining / block withholding. I'm not sure how big an issue this still is right now, but a few mid/large-sized farms that mine at a pool could withhold solved blocks from the pool in order to be paid ~99% of the normal payout but effectively deprive the network of several TH or even PH of solved blocks. doing this holds down the difficulty, and unless the pool is smart enough to check if there are (x blocks)/(y shares) it could go unnoticed and a pool would appear to just be having bad luck

I think we are still going sideways in difficulty until price goes back over $400, or at least $350. likely 8% this time, then 2%, and then anything in a (-1)-(+4)%/jump from there as any new hashrate requires the removal of older gear.

we should get slower growth next cycle as lots of s-3's will not be worthwhile to run. with the diff at 44.6  and price at 290

an s-3 earns 9-10 bucks a month when k-watts are 13 cents
an s-3 earns 6-7   bucks a month  when k-watts are 14 cents
an s-3 earns 3-4   bucks a month   when k-watts are 15 cents
an s-3 earns  1          usd a month when k-watts are 16 cents

So next jump everyone running an s-3 at 17 cents a k-watt is losing money

I have to think there are 80ph in s-3's  and a lot of them (think most of europe) will be money losers in 1 or 2 jumps.

Well it's not great news but still good news.  The bitwisdom is going down as some suggested.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty:    44,858,226,258 (+10.38%)
Adjust time:    After 620 Blocks, About 4.0 days
Hashrate(?):    301,303,498 GH/s


So still much better then the 14-15 percent change it could have been.  Hopefully we can be under 10 in 4 days... we will see.

Around 4 days left.  I would be happy if it's under 10.   We were do one day with this with having so many low percentage changes in a row.  I am still hoping it's a one cycle with higher difficulty percentage and then goes back down.

That's the last 504 blocks and it's about 8% faster than current difficulty. So far for the ~1400 blocks already completed we have the average at around +9% and the 504-block line is taking a dive. I'd say it's likely it will stay below 10%.

dropped a lot

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/  =======  (+ 9.46%)

Blocks   338002
Total BTC   13.700M
 
Difficulty   40640955017
Estimated   44489472667 in 686 blks
 
Network total   264472.068 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.45 / 660 s

Dropped some

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty === (+11.38%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty:   45,265,892,492 (+11.38%)
Adjust time:   After 686 Blocks, About 4.4 days
Hashrate(?):   306,674,914 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.5 minutes
6 blocks: 55.0 minutes
Updated:   0:10 (2.0 minutes ago)


Maybe we pull an 8 or 9 this time followed by a 4 or 5.

 then coins drift up to 325 and things look up a bit.

easy and steady it will go up in small digits!