Dec 29 to Approx Jan 12th diff thread (4%) to (7%) - page 6.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: mavericklm on January 03, 2015, 05:50:54 AM

Estimated Next Difficulty: 46,109,824,103 (+13.46%)

How you like me now?

The dent in diff by paycoin was only 2%. And the hash rate reported for paycoin was like ~30ph
The missing part of 2% and 30hp we are going to see it now!

Let me put it another way because i know i got diff in expressing myself:
If the network has lost only 2%(see diff) but the reported speed on the other side was ~30hp this means that those (30hp minus 2%btc diff) were up and running in ~december!

Until most of the miners are on an technological process at the same level with most of the it industry, we are going to still have serious bumps in hash rate!

Negative diff will be only in unexpected cases!

knew it would jump but 13% surprised me.

mavericklm

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

Estimated Next Difficulty: 46,109,824,103 (+13.46%)

How you like me now?

The dent in diff by paycoin was only 2%. And the hash rate reported for paycoin was like ~30ph
The missing part of 2% and 30hp we are going to see it now!

Let me put it another way because i know i got diff in expressing myself:
If the network has lost only 2%(see diff) but the reported speed on the other side was ~30hp this means that those (30hp minus 2%btc diff) were up and running in ~december!

Until most of the miners are on an technological process at the same level with most of the it industry, we are going to still have serious bumps in hash rate!

Negative diff will be only in unexpected cases!

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1473

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

things are looking ....UP...

Difficulty:   40,640,955,017
Next:   45,378,877,426
Hash Rate:   322,500,679 GH/s

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: notlist3d on January 02, 2015, 02:29:14 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on January 02, 2015, 08:49:58 AM

Quote from: mavericklm on January 02, 2015, 05:59:33 AM

I love you guys so much! and i want to make a gift to you:

Estimated Next Difficulty: 45,134,713,998 (+11.06%)

My estimation, that comes out of my ass, is +13%!

that would be an interesting number. I wonder if you may be correct.

We had a long run of good numbers. Will be interesting to see if short term push, or if the new gear keeps pushing up each change for a bit.

One does not worry me, its if you get multiple in a row I get worried.

yeah a bump to 45 is not an end of the world issue 3 more good bumps of 5% or more would be worrisome. I kind of want to hang in there for the next halving to see what unfolds.
I upgraded all my gear I have 8 sp20's which are just about the max I can run in the winter.. So now I watch and wait.

notlist3d

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Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Quote from: philipma1957 on January 02, 2015, 08:49:58 AM

Quote from: mavericklm on January 02, 2015, 05:59:33 AM

I love you guys so much! and i want to make a gift to you:

Estimated Next Difficulty: 45,134,713,998 (+11.06%)

My estimation, that comes out of my ass, is +13%!

that would be an interesting number. I wonder if you may be correct.

We had a long run of good numbers. Will be interesting to see if short term push, or if the new gear keeps pushing up each change for a bit.

One does not worry me, its if you get multiple in a row I get worried.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: mavericklm on January 02, 2015, 05:59:33 AM

I love you guys so much! and i want to make a gift to you:

Estimated Next Difficulty: 45,134,713,998 (+11.06%)

My estimation, that comes out of my ass, is +13%!

that would be an interesting number. I wonder if you may be correct.

mavericklm

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

I love you guys so much! and i want to make a gift to you:

Estimated Next Difficulty: 45,134,713,998 (+11.06%)

My estimation, that comes out of my ass, is +13%!

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: notlist3d on January 01, 2015, 10:38:29 PM

Quote from: suchmoon on January 01, 2015, 06:40:50 PM

Quote from: mavericklm on January 01, 2015, 01:17:12 PM

Estimated Next Difficulty: 44,751,281,929 (+10.11%)
muahahahahahaaa Grin

something in me wants to see +20% diff and btc under 300$ Roll Eyes

The way bitcoinwisdom calculates the estimate is quite odd. It's almost always completely wrong within the first week. I think they are just taking the timing of the last 2016 blocks, which in this case includes the quick blocks achieved at the previous diff. And to be fair it's impossible to predict anything this early in the cycle.

I'd wait at least until about 1500 blocks remaining, then look at the 504-block average, that typically gives a better indication of where this might be going.

Either way it's safe to say its a positive not negative change. Some numbers look not so great on change. We will see hopefully not the 10+ percentage.

amen to under 10+..

notlist3d

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Quote from: suchmoon on January 01, 2015, 06:40:50 PM

Quote from: mavericklm on January 01, 2015, 01:17:12 PM

Estimated Next Difficulty: 44,751,281,929 (+10.11%)
muahahahahahaaa Grin

something in me wants to see +20% diff and btc under 300$ Roll Eyes

The way bitcoinwisdom calculates the estimate is quite odd. It's almost always completely wrong within the first week. I think they are just taking the timing of the last 2016 blocks, which in this case includes the quick blocks achieved at the previous diff. And to be fair it's impossible to predict anything this early in the cycle.

I'd wait at least until about 1500 blocks remaining, then look at the 504-block average, that typically gives a better indication of where this might be going.

Either way it's safe to say its a positive not negative change. Some numbers look not so great on change. We will see hopefully not the 10+ percentage.

suchmoon

legendary

Activity: 3654

Merit: 8909

https://bpip.org

Quote from: mavericklm on January 01, 2015, 01:17:12 PM

Estimated Next Difficulty: 44,751,281,929 (+10.11%)
muahahahahahaaa Grin

something in me wants to see +20% diff and btc under 300$ Roll Eyes

The way bitcoinwisdom calculates the estimate is quite odd. It's almost always completely wrong within the first week. I think they are just taking the timing of the last 2016 blocks, which in this case includes the quick blocks achieved at the previous diff. And to be fair it's impossible to predict anything this early in the cycle.

I'd wait at least until about 1500 blocks remaining, then look at the 504-block average, that typically gives a better indication of where this might be going.

mavericklm

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

Conservative: 9.8% Middle 14.5 % Continous: 28.5 %

http://nextdifficulty.com/

Don't care too much about it Grin

i just go with the flow...

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: mavericklm on January 01, 2015, 01:17:12 PM

Estimated Next Difficulty: 44,751,281,929 (+10.11%)
muahahahahahaaa Grin

something in me wants to see +20% diff and btc under 300$ Roll Eyes

yeah but look here

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

they have a 4.52% jump so 6 or 7 is in the middle. I would love to see a solid drop in price to 175usd this would scare the shit out of the big miners the dc's even make knc and bitfury sweat.

Blocks   337001
Total BTC   13.675M

Difficulty   40640955017
Estimated   42478493256 in 1687 blks

Network total   321462.682 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.63 / 543 s

mavericklm

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

Estimated Next Difficulty: 44,751,281,929 (+10.11%)
muahahahahahaaa Grin

something in me wants to see +20% diff and btc under 300$ Roll Eyes

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: aurel57 on January 01, 2015, 10:13:34 AM

I say with Bitmain whole selling "used" S3's at 500 units a batch it tells me they have switched out their farm of S3's to either S5's or maybe something even newer ?? Not sure how many batches of 500 they have to sell but each equals @250TH/s which if they switch out to S5's they pretty much double their hash rate.

Edit: I do know they will let a person order up to 2000 units per order.

yeah and if you can run 250 th at 6 cents a kwatt it could make sense to buy them. they do .8 watts a gh or 800 watts a th

so 250 x 800 = 200kwatts

cost for them is about 65000 add psu's building etc 20000 = 85000

and after 1 year the 85000 = 92000 you make 7 k

aurel57

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Activity: 1176

Merit: 1000

I say with Bitmain whole selling "used" S3's at 500 units a batch it tells me they have switched out their farm of S3's to either S5's or maybe something even newer ?? Not sure how many batches of 500 they have to sell but each equals @250TH/s which if they switch out to S5's they pretty much double their hash rate.

Edit: I do know they will let a person order up to 2000 units per order.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: xstr8guy on January 01, 2015, 12:58:47 AM

Quote from: suchmoon on January 01, 2015, 12:06:21 AM

Looks like a bit of a price war going on between Bitmain and Spond, so a couple of ~10% rises might be coming. On the other hand, it's not the home miner market that's driving the hashrate now, I mean how many PH/s can they possibly sell with those SP20s and S5s? I would be really surprised if we breach 50G diff before April. Unless bitcoin price goes way up, which would change everything (tm).

But I'm almost always wrong with my predictions, so there's that.

Very astute observation!

Home mining has been, for some time, virtually insignificant to the total hashrate. But there has been a lot of hashrate shipped to home miners in the last week. And the industrial, large-scale miners have seemed to pull way back on their aggressive expansion.

But despite the apparent slow growth in the network... this is just the calm before the storm. There are hundreds of PH/s just about to hit the network in the next month or two.

that is only true if bitfury and knc decide to go for it.

With the price at 310 usd a coin they may not .

xstr8guy

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1004

Glow Stick Dance!

Quote from: suchmoon on January 01, 2015, 12:06:21 AM

Looks like a bit of a price war going on between Bitmain and Spond, so a couple of ~10% rises might be coming. On the other hand, it's not the home miner market that's driving the hashrate now, I mean how many PH/s can they possibly sell with those SP20s and S5s? I would be really surprised if we breach 50G diff before April. Unless bitcoin price goes way up, which would change everything (tm).

But I'm almost always wrong with my predictions, so there's that.

Very astute observation!

Home mining has been, for some time, virtually insignificant to the total hashrate. But there has been a lot of hashrate shipped to home miners in the last week. And the industrial, large-scale miners have seemed to pull way back on their aggressive expansion.

But despite the apparent slow growth in the network... this is just the calm before the storm. There are hundreds of PH/s just about to hit the network in the next month or two.

suchmoon

legendary

Activity: 3654

Merit: 8909

https://bpip.org

Looks like a bit of a price war going on between Bitmain and Spond, so a couple of ~10% rises might be coming. On the other hand, it's not the home miner market that's driving the hashrate now, I mean how many PH/s can they possibly sell with those SP20s and S5s? I would be really surprised if we breach 50G diff before April. Unless bitcoin price goes way up, which would change everything (tm).

But I'm almost always wrong with my predictions, so there's that.

charlieSeen

sr. member

Activity: 241

Merit: 250

Quote from: klondike_bar on December 31, 2014, 08:44:06 PM

my guess is 7-8%. lots of hardware turning on in the next 3-4 days, likely followed by a lull and the removal of most gear over 1.2w/GH

I don't think the increase will be caused by so much new machines being turned on, but rather the machines that were turned on in the last ~1.5 months being redirected towards bitcoin again (from paycoin mining).

If you notice the 512 block time it spiked over 10% in only a matter of hours

philipma1957

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Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: klondike_bar on December 31, 2014, 08:44:06 PM

my guess is 7-8%. lots of hardware turning on in the next 3-4 days, likely followed by a lull and the removal of most gear over 1.2w/GH

still hoping for 4-5% but you are more likely the better guesser..

I am too buzzed no more posting for a while

Topic: Dec 29 to Approx Jan 12th diff thread (4%) to (7%) - page 6. (Read 6309 times)