Topic: Diff thread Mar 18 to Mar 31? picks are closed.... prize = 0.1 btc - page 7. (Read 6082 times)

Looks like we leveled off a little over 415 to.  So was a nice little boost but looks like were done for a few day's I would guess.  We don't seem to get big upswings anymore very often.

I still am very happy with looks of difficulty, I think altcoins could be helping on this.   So I think it's temporary.   Also it's hard to say when but I still fear next big batch of miners.

quite good numbers  a little price creep to 415 usd

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   165,910,587,548 (+0.25%)
Adjust time:   After 1450 Blocks, About 10.3 days >>>> picks open in 34 blocks
Hashrate(?):   1,155,904,833 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   7:45 (2.8 minutes ago)


the  (+0.25%)   above is off by 4 percent or so we are real time

403767 (Main Chain)   2016-03-22 11:46:30
403201 (Main Chain)   2016-03-18 09:50:30

567 blocks in  4 days and 2 hours

4 x 144 = 576 + 12 = 588

so 567/588-1 = (-3.57%)


this would mean a diff of 159.6 about march 31

Yes I have this feeling that if you were a big farm then you will have made your S7 / Avalon6 investment, perhaps you have turned off some older Miners and everyone is waiting for 14/16nm before making any more serious investments?

Yesterday back to being a negative day with -3.47% and 139 Blocks. A possible band is emerging with the run rate moving between -4% & -6%, so here's hoping that the net of these 3 Periods can be Zero, or even a little negative?


Rich

I agree with fingers crossed, it has signs this could be a good change.  Seems either manufactures are slowing down on making compared to january, or altcoins are helping.  And could be a mix of both.

I would be very happy with a negative.  Also past 24 hours price is moving up just a little and currently over 411.  So not a huge jump but still looks nice to see.

 yes and you need more posts to join the contest.

On current numbers


we are at block 403684
we started at    403201


so this is 484 blocks

time has been

72 + 12 = 84 hours and 30 minutes

so 84 x 6 = 504 + 3 or 507 blocks for  a 0%

484/507 - 1 = (-4.53%)


 not bad but a lot of time to go.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   167,179,921,465 (+1.02%) this is a future number and is high
Adjust time:   After 1531 Blocks, About 10.8 days
Hashrate(?):   1,130,411,628 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   18:20 (1.6 minutes ago)



https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   403685
Total BTC   15.342M
 
Difficulty   165496835118
Estimated   165070693668 in 1531 blks
 
Network total   1151163.418 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.83 / 617 s


this is a mix of current and future it is (-0.257%)

I like the current number -4.53% it it holds diff becomes  157.99  and would keep us safe until april 12 or 13.  Fingers crossed

Picks start after the 600th block for the period, so

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Adjust time:    After 1532 Blocks, About 10.8 days

When that reads 1416 blocks picks are open.

So are we still waiting for picks?

yeah it is very early


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   167,134,746,625 (+0.99%)
Adjust time:   After 1594 Blocks, About 11.3 days
Hashrate(?):   1,136,186,659 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   7:45 (2.6 minutes ago)

and price is 410


https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   403623
Total BTC   15.341M
 
Difficulty   165496835118
Estimated   164059882133 in 1593 blks --------   this is showing negative.
 
Network total   1043857.652 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.29 / 681 s

So two negative Days and Yesterday the first small positive with +1.39% 146 Blocks. Run rate this period, 9 Hours in Day 3, is -4.6%, but it seems to take 600 - 900 Blocks for any sort of stable position to emerge, we are at the mercy of how much hash is added. But OK so far..... 


Rich

+1.69% at this moment!

missing the mining world over here!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   168,615,957,781 (+1.88%)
Adjust time:   After 1729 Blocks, About 12.2 days
Hashrate(?):   1,128,125,554 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   7:30 (2.7 minutes ago)

price 411



 first this jump Block 403201 was made at

403201 (Main Chain) 2016-03-18 09:50:30
403488 (Main Chain)   2016-03-20 11:29:03


288 blocks should take 2 days or 48 hours

it has taken     49 hours and 40 minutes

we should have made  298 in 49 hours and 40 minutes

so 288/298  - 1 =  (-3.355 %)

picks will start in about 312 blocks or 2 days




we have made 367 blocks in the time we should have made 386

so 367/386-1 =   (-4.92%)   not bad so far  but 1630 blocks left. so we may do well.

Well much to early in the period to know what is going on, but the first full Day was -5.56% 136 Blocks, and the Period Run rate so far, 7 Hours in Today is -5.4% but climbing. So here's hoping it will be another low one.

Rich

Block 403201 was made at

 403201 (Main Chain) 2016-03-18 09:50:30


403446 (Main Chain)   2016-03-20 05:45:52


246 blocks in  44 hours    should be  264 blocks so we are real time

246/264 -1 = (-6.81%)


it is early  but the numbers are good.

next diff would be 154.2   would not this be something

 A long way to go here.

Value seems to be slow moving which is good and bad.   I want to see 450 again just as I would like a solid raise up.... but don't know how long that will be.

I still can't figure out difficulty trends:
Mar 18 2016    165,496,835,118    4.46%    1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016    158,427,203,767    -3.10%    1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016    163,491,654,909    13.44%    1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016    144,116,447,847    20.06%    1,031,625,717 GH/s

And looking to be another slow difficulty (hopefully).  I'm still wondering who the gear was on feb 7th, and feb 19th periods.   I don't think it was bitfury (unless they are really good about keeping quiet).   So leaves in my head bitmain, avalon, or possibly those b-11's.   Or a mix of those.  All still complete guesses though.

BitcoinWisdom seems to be working ok  https://bitcoinwisdom.com/

While way hugely early, there isn't any indication of a huge increase coming this time around.

On a related topic: Where do folks get the BTC price since btcquote seems to be stuck at $413.36 for a week or so?

Block 403201 was made at

 403201 (Main Chain) 2016-03-18 09:50:30


403297 (Main Chain)   2016-03-19 03:06:38


97 blocks in  17 hours and 30 minutes   should be  105 blocks



 so we are " real time "    97/105 -1  =  (-7.619%)    very early but very nice numbers.



update  block 403344

403344 (Main Chain)   2016-03-19 11:10:25


so this is the 144 block this jump     and was done in 25 hours and 20 minutes    we should have done 152 blocks  so

144/152 - 1 =  (-5.26%)

Not bad

Below is bitcoinwisdom's future guess it is higher because it uses part of last jump which was a positive number

 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   169,085,767,187 (+2.17%)
Adjust time:   After 1872 Blocks, About 13.3 days
Hashrate(?):   1,148,412,808 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   7:15 (3.1 minutes ago)


and here is bitcoin charts

they are more realtime

https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   403344
Total BTC   15.334M
 
Difficulty   165496835118
Estimated   164437596179 in 1872 blks
 
Network total   1163073.842 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.89 / 611 s


164437/165496 - 1 =   (-0.639%)

all 3 numbers

-5.26% real time
+2.17% bitcoinwisdom
-0.639% bitcoincharts

are good numbers.

I will try to keep posting them this adjustment.

I really would love to see the -5% come true.

price is about 410 usd on coinbase.

Congrats ingiltere!

Mining is so surprising!  2015 was a great year to mine.  Can't say so for 2016 up to now...

Anyone has inside info from Bitfury, Bitmain, Canaan or any other manufacturer to help us set the next difficulty change?   

Block 403201 was made at

 403201 (Main Chain) 2016-03-18 09:50:30


403267 (Main Chain)   2016-03-18 22:40:02


67 blocks in  12 hours and 50 minutes   should be  77 blocks



 so we are " real time "    67/77 -1  = -12.987%   very early but very nice numbers.

Congratz to winner.  It was under 5 so I feel we all won a little, no big jumps... so that is good.

We are losing value on BTC which stinks.  A little over 10 dollars in a day is not a fun jump.