With less than 17 hours to go, bitcoinwisdom and nextdiffculty are both converging on 4.3%.
Doesn't seem like we're going to 7% this time (I hope!)
Topic: Diff thread sept 4th. to sept 17th Picks are closed. - page 2. (Read 7440 times)
I wonder how much of this is "latent hashrate" that was off for the summer due to cooling costs, or perhaps higher electricity prices during the summer months. Also we are all assuming that Bitmain was putting in S7 hardware and selling off 100's of S5 miners. Those S5's were bought and are now being run by somebody. I think there is quite a lag (i.e. many months) for displaced gear to actually disappear from the network. How much BFL gear is still hashing? Original KNC hardware? At some point they become a sunk cost and they get run until they are seriously in the red in terms of electrical costs. As Phil has said, a lowered BTC price accelerates that process.
I don't know for all but for me in the midwest it's same power year around on cost. It seems to vary be area on this. We have cooled down some but it's still not near winter weather where I am yet. I think winter miners are still to come on turning on. Which is sad to think about.
As far as old gear I think look at A1's and S2's. I think there are MASSIVE amounts of these in cheap electricity places still making money. Eventually they will go offline but so far it does not seem like it.
BFL really did not have much big gear they had trouble with little gear for the longest time. I don't think there are a ton of that big rig or what ever they called it, but those most likely are offline.
I wonder how much of this is "latent hashrate" that was off for the summer due to cooling costs, or perhaps higher electricity prices during the summer months. Also we are all assuming that Bitmain was putting in S7 hardware and selling off 100's of S5 miners. Those S5's were bought and are now being run by somebody. I think there is quite a lag (i.e. many months) for displaced gear to actually disappear from the network. How much BFL gear is still hashing? Original KNC hardware? At some point they become a sunk cost and they get run until they are seriously in the red in terms of electrical costs. As Phil has said, a lowered BTC price accelerates that process.
http://btc.blockr.io/charts
157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial but it is +13 on a norm of 144 that is over 9% that is really high number we need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6 for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks
142 Sept 6 2015 ---- -2 +17
151 Sept 7 2015 ---- +7 +24
138 Sept 8 2015 ---- -6 +18 It did slow a bit.
144 Sept 9 2015 ---- 0 +18
168 Sept 10 2015 --- +24 +42 brutal number but 3 in a row is what we need to worry about so lets wait until tonight to see
163 Sept 11 2015 --- +19 +61 back to back high numbers
144 Sept 12 2015 --- 0 +61 and normal which is good maybe it was variance stay tuned
144 Sept 13 2015 ---- 0 +61 and normal again which makes the 10, 11 sept days a little less scary
150 Sept 14 2015 -----+6 +67
163 Sept 15 2015 ----- +19 +86
we are pushing 160 for today. So we will be about 100 blocks over pace.
7% looks pretty much possible for this jump.
Ouch.... 7 is going to hurt. I think someone is pumping out the miners at a pretty amazing rate. This scares me.
The thought of 1 or even 2 companies being able to produce so much hash in one period is scary anymore.
http://btc.blockr.io/charts
157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial but it is +13 on a norm of 144 that is over 9% that is really high number we need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6 for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks
142 Sept 6 2015 ---- -2 +17
151 Sept 7 2015 ---- +7 +24
138 Sept 8 2015 ---- -6 +18 It did slow a bit.
144 Sept 9 2015 ---- 0 +18
168 Sept 10 2015 --- +24 +42 brutal number but 3 in a row is what we need to worry about so lets wait until tonight to see
163 Sept 11 2015 --- +19 +61 back to back high numbers
144 Sept 12 2015 --- 0 +61 and normal which is good maybe it was variance stay tuned
144 Sept 13 2015 ---- 0 +61 and normal again which makes the 10, 11 sept days a little less scary
150 Sept 14 2015 -----+6 +67
163 Sept 15 2015 ----- +19 +86
we are pushing 160 for today. So we will be about 100 blocks over pace.
7% looks pretty much possible for this jump.
I think we're going to keep seeing 5%+ as all the new gen hardware comes online and the northern hemisphere cools down for fall. The network may keep growing like this all the way to the halving.
I think so which really is sad. Roi at today's prices is hard at 5+.... just is going to be tough to mine. Will come down to cheap electricity only.
And just think were still approaching having each period were one closer. Scary future looking at it.
At 2% & 0.05$/kWh you won't even be able to ROI the S7 before the halving according to BitCoinwisom calc with 2000$ as total cost. 5% Indeed sound scary, but i don't think 5% can be sustained indefinitely.
I am pretty sure in a few months we'll reach the new balance with the new hardware where the Difficulty will be more stable. Still, not sure the S7 is ROI-able either way before the halving.
Seem even more gloomy for less efficient hardware.
Not indefinably but it can for a while. Just think bitmain has their own farms that they will upgrade spots that used S5's sold were. Then there is hashnest they are going to make a decent amount for the hashnest users. And then there is batch one buyers. That right there is a lot of miners.
And that does not include any other companies in the mix.
I think we're going to keep seeing 5%+ as all the new gen hardware comes online and the northern hemisphere cools down for fall. The network may keep growing like this all the way to the halving.
I think so which really is sad. Roi at today's prices is hard at 5+.... just is going to be tough to mine. Will come down to cheap electricity only.
And just think were still approaching having each period were one closer. Scary future looking at it.
At 2% & 0.05$/kWh you won't even be able to ROI the S7 before the halving according to BitCoinwisom calc with 2000$ as total cost. 5% Indeed sound scary, but i don't think 5% can be sustained indefinitely.
I am pretty sure in a few months we'll reach the new balance with the new hardware where the Difficulty will be more stable. Still, not sure the S7 is ROI-able either way before the halving.
Seem even more gloomy for less efficient hardware.
I think we're going to keep seeing 5%+ as all the new gen hardware comes online and the northern hemisphere cools down for fall. The network may keep growing like this all the way to the halving.
I think so which really is sad. Roi at today's prices is hard at 5+.... just is going to be tough to mine. Will come down to cheap electricity only.
And just think were still approaching having each period were one closer. Scary future looking at it.
I think we're going to keep seeing 5%+ as all the new gen hardware comes online and the northern hemisphere cools down for fall. The network may keep growing like this all the way to the halving.
I think we were all just so "shell shocked" by the difficulty increases during 2013 and 2014, a small increase of 1% we just shrug off. In any other industry, 1% growth every 2-weeks would be considered crazy. I agree the days of 1% are over for at least a few months. It might not be quite as a bad though if Bitmain is doing most of the increases. All of the other obvious names (e.g. KNC, Bitfury, Spondoolies, etc), are all pretty opaque these days.
I think we're going to keep seeing 5%+ as all the new gen hardware comes online and the northern hemisphere cools down for fall. The network may keep growing like this all the way to the halving.
This week is going to hurt:
Bitcoin Difficulty: 56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty: 60,226,440,016 (+5.74%)
Adjust time: After 176 Blocks, About 1.1 days
Hashrate(?): 454,976,728 GH/s
Just have to wonder how long can we keep getting 5 percent or so. I don't see a end in sight for the moment.
Bitcoin Difficulty: 56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty: 60,226,440,016 (+5.74%)
Adjust time: After 176 Blocks, About 1.1 days
Hashrate(?): 454,976,728 GH/s
Just have to wonder how long can we keep getting 5 percent or so. I don't see a end in sight for the moment.
http://btc.blockr.io/charts
157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial but it is +13 on a norm of 144 that is over 9% that is really high number we need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6 for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks
142 Sept 6 2015 ---- -2 +17
151 Sept 7 2015 ---- +7 +24
138 Sept 8 2015 ---- -6 +18 It did slow a bit.
144 Sept 9 2015 ---- 0 +18
168 Sept 10 2015 --- +24 +42 brutal number but 3 in a row is what we need to worry about so lets wait until tonight to see
163 Sept 11 2015 --- +19 +61 back to back high numbers
144 Sept 12 2015 --- 0 +61 and normal which is good maybe it was variance stay tuned
144 Sept 13 2015 ---- 0 +61 and normal again which makes the 10, 11 sept days a little less scary
151 Sept 14 2015 -----+7 +68
we will be over 150 today so +75 or +80
this will be a good sized jump
Hmm, mufflers. That sound like a great idea, but pretty expensive.
I guess for a S7, its such a big unit that you can soak it, however.
But i'm wondering if i could not DIY one. I'm guessing its just the foam used in sound absorbent panels rolled in a tube of aluminium.
I would have to see how its made but i'm pretty sure with some cheap aluminium sheet that i already have at home, buying the sound absorbent material, i could handcraft one. (With a healthy dose of duct tape)
Edit: Looking at pictures of it from other angles this would be very easy to make. Its just rolled foam.
But i'm guessing you might want one at intake and exhaust?
I guess for a S7, its such a big unit that you can soak it, however.
But i'm wondering if i could not DIY one. I'm guessing its just the foam used in sound absorbent panels rolled in a tube of aluminium.
I would have to see how its made but i'm pretty sure with some cheap aluminium sheet that i already have at home, buying the sound absorbent material, i could handcraft one. (With a healthy dose of duct tape)
Edit: Looking at pictures of it from other angles this would be very easy to make. Its just rolled foam.
But i'm guessing you might want one at intake and exhaust?
I purchased diy and pre made. that link is premade
diy for intake is this
http://www.lowes.com/pd_10149-286-692201___?productId=3005463&pl=1&Ntt=sono+tube
http://www.ebay.com/itm/like/261468673695
if these do the job they will be worth the money.
Please let me know. Those foam look low quality/density, not sure, but i think i would buy a big roll and make noise absorbent panels too if its dense enough.
Hmm, mufflers. That sound like a great idea, but pretty expensive.
I guess for a S7, its such a big unit that you can soak it, however.
But i'm wondering if i could not DIY one. I'm guessing its just the foam used in sound absorbent panels rolled in a tube of aluminium.
I would have to see how its made but i'm pretty sure with some cheap aluminium sheet that i already have at home, buying the sound absorbent material, i could handcraft one. (With a healthy dose of duct tape)
Edit: Looking at pictures of it from other angles this would be very easy to make. Its just rolled foam.
But i'm guessing you might want one at intake and exhaust?
I guess for a S7, its such a big unit that you can soak it, however.
But i'm wondering if i could not DIY one. I'm guessing its just the foam used in sound absorbent panels rolled in a tube of aluminium.
I would have to see how its made but i'm pretty sure with some cheap aluminium sheet that i already have at home, buying the sound absorbent material, i could handcraft one. (With a healthy dose of duct tape)
Edit: Looking at pictures of it from other angles this would be very easy to make. Its just rolled foam.
But i'm guessing you might want one at intake and exhaust?
I purchased diy and pre made. that link is premade
diy for intake is this
http://www.lowes.com/pd_10149-286-692201___?productId=3005463&pl=1&Ntt=sono+tube
http://www.ebay.com/itm/like/261468673695
if these do the job they will be worth the money.
Hmm, mufflers. That sound like a great idea, but pretty expensive.
I guess for a S7, its such a big unit that you can soak it, however.
But i'm wondering if i could not DIY one. I'm guessing its just the foam used in sound absorbent panels rolled in a tube of aluminium.
I would have to see how its made but i'm pretty sure with some cheap aluminium sheet that i already have at home, buying the sound absorbent material, i could handcraft one. (With a healthy dose of duct tape)
Edit: Looking at pictures of it from other angles this would be very easy to make. Its just rolled foam.
But i'm guessing you might want one at intake and exhaust?
I guess for a S7, its such a big unit that you can soak it, however.
But i'm wondering if i could not DIY one. I'm guessing its just the foam used in sound absorbent panels rolled in a tube of aluminium.
I would have to see how its made but i'm pretty sure with some cheap aluminium sheet that i already have at home, buying the sound absorbent material, i could handcraft one. (With a healthy dose of duct tape)
Edit: Looking at pictures of it from other angles this would be very easy to make. Its just rolled foam.
But i'm guessing you might want one at intake and exhaust?
And also come up with $2000 roughly to earn a bit more. The S3's are a sunk cost more or less. Phillip's specific situation is unusual, and putting in a "big money" machine will do nothing but blow whatever profit he already has.
As I understand it, the S3's may not all be in one location, though my memory may be faulty here.
As I understand it, the S3's may not all be in one location, though my memory may be faulty here.
They are in my friend's office. And they use up about 1450 watts which is all I can do in his place.
yeah the s-7 would be nice but as you say 1900 plus to use the 2.4 cent power.
A second issue is his lease is up on Jan 1 and we do not know if he will continue in his place.
But I did mine from May 2014 to Sept 2015 so far. First with s-1's then with s-'3's.
This gear has roi'd in btc and usd including the psu's in use.
I have a second spot in the brooklyn navy yard I have a 240 volt 30 amp circuit I think the s-7's on order will end up in this spot.
The issue here once again is noise. I may run the s-7's as low as 3600gh with these mufflers
http://www.ebay.com/itm/281147636370?
So how are you getting all these awesome friends for hosting? I have to admit I'm a little jealous of your ability to find cheap electricity.
I do look forward to you making it quiet. I would love to see some S7 "silencers" for lack of better term.
And also come up with $2000 roughly to earn a bit more. The S3's are a sunk cost more or less. Phillip's specific situation is unusual, and putting in a "big money" machine will do nothing but blow whatever profit he already has.
As I understand it, the S3's may not all be in one location, though my memory may be faulty here.
As I understand it, the S3's may not all be in one location, though my memory may be faulty here.
They are in my friend's office. And they use up about 1450 watts which is all I can do in his place.
yeah the s-7 would be nice but as you say 1900 plus to use the 2.4 cent power.
A second issue is his lease is up on Jan 1 and we do not know if he will continue in his place.
But I did mine from May 2014 to Sept 2015 so far. First with s-1's then with s-'3's.
This gear has roi'd in btc and usd including the psu's in use.
I have a second spot in the brooklyn navy yard I have a 240 volt 30 amp circuit I think the s-7's on order will end up in this spot.
The issue here once again is noise. I may run the s-7's as low as 3600gh with these mufflers
http://www.ebay.com/itm/281147636370?
So if the difficulty goes to +8.01 or higher to infinity does CrazyGuy won automatically?
Or is it considered void?
Or is it considered void?
To win the difficulty has to be within the range you guessed, no exceptions. If no one wins the reward gets added to the next period's reward. Current reward is 0.2 BTC because no one won last time.
I didn't know the reward was accumulative that said it will be interesting to see who wins seeing as there are only a few hundred blocks left and it will only carry forward if it passes 8.26% this round which may be a good pick next difficulty seeing as units may start to come online as philip mentioned with the S-7s.
Bitcoin Difficulty: 56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty: 60,181,868,441 (+5.66%)
Adjust time: After 358 Blocks, About 2.3 days
Right now
Bitcoin Difficulty: 56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty: 59,883,888,523 (+5.14%)
Adjust time: After 347 Blocks, About 2.3 days
Hashrate(?): 418,113,495 GH/s
I really want to stay under 5 that would be nice but I don't think it's going to happen. I really want to know if bitmain has already gotten their own internal miners up and running (specifically hashnet ones), or if that is coming in future.
So if the difficulty goes to +8.01 or higher to infinity does CrazyGuy won automatically?
Or is it considered void?
Or is it considered void?
To win the difficulty has to be within the range you guessed, no exceptions. If no one wins the reward gets added to the next period's reward. Current reward is 0.2 BTC because no one won last time.
I didn't know the reward was accumulative that said it will be interesting to see who wins seeing as there are only a few hundred blocks left and it will only carry forward if it passes 8.26% this round which may be a good pick next difficulty seeing as units may start to come online as philip mentioned with the S-7s.
Bitcoin Difficulty: 56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty: 60,181,868,441 (+5.66%)
Adjust time: After 358 Blocks, About 2.3 days
http://www.wamungo.com/Images/laquo-Back-3D-Models-raquo-Computer-Mobile-Fan-adapter-for-50mm-to-80mm-fanPopulare-3D-Models-52764b51ec4ccb2c50cd5658 does the link work?
but with 175mm fan or 2*12cm fans....
but with 175mm fan or 2*12cm fans....
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