Topic: Diff thread sept 4th. to sept 17th Picks are closed. - page 8. (Read 7287 times)

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6   for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks

so 261 vs 242 = +7.85%

bitcoinwisdom is +7.09%

picks open in seven hours or so.

My pick will be   -1.01% to -1.25%  not much chance but I am stubborn.

If You  believe  that pacmic v3 is real mining farm with Antminer S5,  or that they are pacmic S5 mining  in  another pool,  then you have to be disappointed.  It's just a BTC loan paying back with  weird counting.

All pacmic  payments are counted  by Antpool  blocks timing and blocks number.

The more blocks in Antpool  get found, then more  profitable pacmic is for Bitmain.



So will produce free electricity. Find one sucker who will pay for electricity and put profits in your pocket.

This mechanic of charging at S5 prices while running S7 or something unknown is also probably applicable to most hashrate on hashnest. Milk users at 97% of Revenue/Cost while in actuality they're running some other(more efficient) hardware while the obsolete hardware are boxed in storage somewhere. Pretty smart.

  I was referring to the  solo pool and I was also referring to

hashnest pacmic v3  which is 24ph.

so the is 68 ph + 14 ph + 24 ph = 106ph

most of the current rise is due to pacmic v3.

  I also believe they use s-7's and charge buyers like it is an s-5  so 23826 th in contracts  Is just about the diff jump and they are fucking whaling on it.

Since they charge you based on s-5 power rates while they run s-7's (this is my guess)

 but if I were them  I would be doing it.

Explain why it is beneficial for them?

Too much profit, and they want to share it with the another pool owner?

They owned really  another pool,  but this is for solo mining. 
Total over 14.00 PH/s
https://www.antpool.com/poolStatsRankings.htm

 Any Antpool user can join it.

You may be right about Bitmaintech.
Last year when I've first bought a scrypt miner from Zeusminer there were many Chinese entrepreneurs who made custom orders. They were the first who received the products, and they've bought a lot of products.
If the situation is the same with Bitmaintech, if they are assembling S7 right now the first clients will be from China. S7 is the best product in power consumption so I assume there are thousands of Chinese orders.
The increased hash rate wont be found in Bitmaintech pool, it will be on the other Chinese pools. 

They have more hashrate then what is on that pool.

AntPool Hashrate  is still 69.62 PH/s

well say 2000 of them  so 2000 x 1.7 = 3.4ph or just under 1%

my guess is bitmaintech swapped a shit ton of s-7's for s-5's

 2000 s-7's in = 9.5 ph  take 4000 s-5's out = 4.6ph  net gain is 4.9 ph

2x that

4000 s-7's in = 19ph take 8000 s-5's out = 9.2 ph  net gain is 9.8 ph

So say 3.4 ph in sfards

say 9.8 ph in s-7s'

some bit fury

some knc

and 20ph is added on for +5%

I think we get this 3 times in a row and then go flat.

I may guess that a few thousands of Sfards machines are online.

Since the diff changed, we've seen 171 blocks.  It's been 28 hours, 3 minutes since the diff change.  This means we're averaging 9.842 minutes per block since the adjustment.  Following that through, it means we're averaging 146.3 blocks every 24 hours... so just a tad over the expected 144.

If they already got chips that are 2x or more energy efficient then the diff will eventualy go 2x or more, and if bitcoin price go up the increase in diff will be even more.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.

More like bitmain got those special machines to start spitting out S7's I think.  And were just on batch one.  There will be more to come.

Only other big thing is bitmain could be putting S7's in the S5 used miner slots they had after selling in their own data  centers.  So hard to know how many are internal S7's.

Bitcoin got into those special brownies and wants to go to the moon on hashrate and difficulty.

Night Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    61,028,387,965 (+7.15%)
Adjust time:    After 1898 Blocks, About 12.9 days
Hashrate(?):    418,800,149 GH/s

So not looking good 2 high weeks in a row.

As far as price around 229 so really no big movement.  Some really needs to change either price of BTC or lower changes.  I think I'm fine through winter no matter most changes.  But if we have these future mining will be much harder for me.

I don't assume that every new miner is equal in cost.--- See my first bold.

There has not been a battle between the building miners for the last year.--- Hash rate has been flat for quite a while.--- This is about builders mining not builders seller as spondoolies and bitmaintech did have a selling war Last DEC/JAN.  That war crashed price of BTC down to 180 for a while

Now Lets be frank I am basing this on Sept/Oct 2014 to July/Aug 2015.

This means Anything after that can be new.  But no builder will attempt to crush another builder at self mining unless they have a god-like chip. With a monster edge. And it needs to be cheap to build and run. And to try to kill your competitors off now if you have the chip of doom is moron just wait for the ½ ing and the summer heat of 2016 then hit them with the chip of death.



So to say mining is an end game is not applicable at all as the reason to ramp your gear up like mad.

With keeping the company needs to build a data center.  These are not cheap for miners.   The cooling system is much more then standard server data center.

So there is some big costs of keeping them only.  Also if they can make decent sales to public it brings down price to produce and the company could keep miners even cheaper.  So I still see advantages to selling to public as long as they make profit.

I think there is a flaw in your counter analysis, because in reality, if a side push for tripling their hash, the other sides will keep the pace and in the end they all undermined themselves. And this is not speaking of the production limitations that simply cannot be overcomed in such a small time span. So no, we won't see 1000PH in a few months.

It's not that easy to produce 2 billions chip at the technological edge. The more you try to get in a small time span, the higher to production cost. Exponentially.

I believe there are several errors in your analysis.  You have assumed everyone pays a similar amount for their miners, has similar costs and does not try to drive others out of business.

1) Not all miners pay the same for their miners.  The mining hardware with the highest efficiency is not likely to be sold to the public.  It is more economic for the manufacturer to keep it to themselves and mine themselves. This is what KNC and Bitfury do.  They manufacture their own cheap hardware and do not sell to to the public.  It is in their interest to increase their hash rate as it increases their profits.

2) For similar reasons miners in areas with the cheapest electricity will try to maximize their hash rates.  Anyone who pays more than about $0.05 per kWh is likely to be ultimately driven out of the mining business.

3) Finally you have assumed people would co-operate if they all had the same costs.  But people are not always that rational in an unregulated market.  See the Tragedy of the Commons.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

The entire mining game is a zero sum game.  There is only a fixed amount of money available from Bitcoin mining.  

The best way to maximize your profits is to not share your competitive advantage and to keep your costs below your competitors.  Ideally you would like most of your competitors to give up and leave the market.

So I expect the battle between the miners to continue and the hash rate to continue to increase for some time yet.