Topic: Difficulty contest Sept.18 Prize a sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. (Read 3737 times)

maybe just select a block number, then guess the hashrate spit. 

yeah if its not fun then its time to stop.

too much hash controlled by a single entity, hash goes where they want. we would not be trying to predict a trend, we would be trying to predict one entities actions.

I agree with buwaytress right now- with all the money and interests involved in mining right now the chances of guessing the difficulty is tiny, and even data is difficult to get at. Another competition in a discussion thread would be nice, but I don’t know what that competition could be about. I would suggest mempool size but the mempool spams nowadays are popping up everywhere. The next month will be crucial though.

If the contest is no longer fun, then I definitely agree with it being scrapped in favour for a discussion thread for difficulty - perhaps also locked and renewed after each adjustment.

I wouldn't mind throwing in some of my weight to help out with a surely soul-sapping manual task of calculating - but will admit here I wouldn't know where to begin.

Maybe once the thread comes up, we can all brainstorm for a different way to add a little competitive spice that we can also pay to be part of a prize pool ... predict number of blocks found by a collection of pools on a certain date? Predict the height on a certain date/time?

There was a statement I read a while back that is starting to ring in my head over and over it was regarding hashcash and change of algorithm.

It says.

"A practical issue with switching to hashcash-SHA3 is that it would invalidate all existing ASIC mining hardware, and so is a change that would unlikely to be made except in the face of security risk."

I have a feeling that something is waiting in the wings for bitcoin to fend off this BCC/BCH attack. which in my view is exactly what it is doing.

well  on a fun level  it just is not here for me.

these alterations in BTC vs BCC/BCH and next fork can no longer be taken lightly.

There is a shit ton of money  involved  well over 100 billion usd in coins now closer to 160 billion.

I think I will freeze contest and just open a discussion thread.  in speculation as to the consequences of the current moves being made.

Especially if we get a third viable 256 coin.
[/quote]

I agree I have a feeling this BCC fork is not the only fork we will see in the near future.
The more I see things developing the more I sense that there is something around the corner and it does not feel good!

With regards to your desire to "get rid of" the Trezor, I have a suggestion. Maybe you should have a difficulty based contest, but use the first two digits to the right of the decimal point for the next adjustment. I realize that it makes this more of "lottery" than a skill based adventure. There really wouldn't be any realtime activity beyond the periodic summary of "spot" taken stuff. It might still not get it "gone" the next go around. It would seem though that a Trezor will have a "shelf life" to some extent, won't it?

Just a random thought.

I agree that the whole thing with bitcoinwisdom is just plan "off". Can't tell if that's by design or defect. Maybe the mechanisms don't respond well to massive changes in actual hash rate (aka the "slosh" with BCC).

I understand you bro.  The bottom line for me is it makes the contest a lot harder to run.

I was posting a chart with numbers that  did not follow  the true data.

Running the contest  years ago was a lot of fun.  It is now becoming work not fun.
Checking the real rate against the chart  can be done.

but I can not find  a site that gives the diff rate based on  the actual block.
I certainly do not want to calculate it four or five times a day.  Until  some other site gets its act together.  bitcoincharts was okay  it went down maybe it is working.

still dead


https://bitcoincharts.com/
Blocks   481823
Total BTC   16.523M
 
Difficulty   923233068449
Estimated   887736944047 in 1 blks
 
Network total   7983858.406 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.25 / 497 s


I feel like it is a conspiracy.  To keep the real time  difficulty rate hidden from easy access.

What I'm getting at is the green line and the new difficulty should always meet. I've been watching that chart more than 3 years, the red difficulty always jumps to the green 2016 line. This time there is an error in the data, it's saying the new difficulty is not based on the hashrate of the last 2016 blocks which it obviously must be.
The shorter timeframe lines are just there to give you an early indication which way it's going. Using 504 block average is still pretty slow to react to what we see happening now, but the shorter sample size you use the more variance you are going to get. So I'm not sure that another website could really give better charts than bitcoinwisdom. http://fork.lol/pow/retarget is useful as well especially the 2nd chart on this page http://fork.lol/pow/hashrate

I know they do a rolling average  but last  chart  right before the diff was far off.

I also know these shifts in hash are huge  between BTC and BCC .

But  the manual calculation I did is the realtime number off by 1 block at most.

It would be nice to go to a website  and know the diff is very close to real time.

especially  if we get a third viable 256 coin.

The bitcoinwisdom.com chart is showing the moving averages of the last 504, 1008 and 2016 blocks respectively for each line, so will always be very slow to catch up to a sudden shift in hashing power like we are now seeing since BCH. What is wrong with the bitcoinwisdom.com chart this time, that I've never seen before, is that the new difficulty should always be where the green line, the 2016 average, is when it changes. This indicates something is wrong with their data, maybe related to the recent downtime they had.

yeah  I can do it  but it is a p.i.t.a.

and I feel the data  is not being held back but a real time current diff  no one offers it .


you just need to go to block  487872  that is the start of this diff

488142 (Main Chain)    2017-10-03 14:58:24  current block for this jump
487872 (Main Chain)   2017-10-02 00:27:46 first block for this jump

so far 270 blocks made in  1 day and 14.5 hours

so 144 for 1 day
and 6 x 14.5 = 87   the 6 comes from a block every 10 minutes

so 144 + 87 = 231 = 0%

270/231 =  1.1688 - 1 = 16.88%  current jump up in diff

so   where do I get an accurate  current diff in real time?

Now why is  the jump strong  16.88%  because  BCC  did a diff adjustment  of 3x.


and all the bcc hash fled to btc

but I feel like this is not being show  because it shows a weakness in btc that has never been shown look below

big earnings drop in bcc




so hash dropped from 680ph+






to under 50ph  thus causing the big raise in btc which is hidden in bitcoinwisdom charts

Maybe Bitcoinwisdom is simply behind in data collection? Hopefully it’s feasible to do manual calculations for this because it seems nobody is accurately predicting difficulty anymore...

So it had to drop and you guys were right to call that... but yeah, a second drastic drop also feels like we're being played. It begs the question if anyone has anything to gain my slightly manipulating the figures. I mean, a small adjustment may not have changed enough minds as this drop surely has. Suddenly the scenario you predicted two adjustments back looks to become more and more plausible, with hashpower zig zagging across BTC and BCC.

I carefully checked. And the charts were wrong.

We are still needing manual calculations as every source I find is so far off it feels that it is on purpose.

Meanwhile coins are over 4400 and bcc is doing well.

Yeah definitely something strange going on with such a huge jump in such a short time.  I really thought we were going to be -7%

   
we spent  13 days and around 18 hours  to do 2016 blocks.





487872 (Main Chain)   2017-10-02 00:27:46
485856 (Main Chain) 2017-09-18  06:31:16


so  the bitcoinwisdom charts show a big -4 -5 %   drop are not accurate.

This contest is turning into a P.I.T.Å.

I KIND OF FEEL .

Bad info is being feed  to hide true numbers

look at the charts





Difficulty History

Date___________Difficulty___________Change_______Hash Rate
Oct 02 2017.........1,123,863,285,133.....1.85%.............8,044,926,758 GH/s
Sep 18 2017.........1,103,400,932,964....19.58%............7,898,451,536 GH/s
Sep 06 2017............922,724,699,726.....3.89%.............6,605,120,681 GH/s
Aug 24 2017............888,171,856,257.....-3.80%...........6,357,781,793 GH/s

-6 or -7  me thinks  was the biggest drop


https://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history


History
Date   Difficulty   Growth
18 Sep 2017.....1103400932964........19.58%
6 Sep 2017........922724699725...........3.89%

24 Aug 2017......888171856257..........-3.80%

9 Aug 2017........923233068448...........7.32%
27 Jul 2017   860221984436...........6.92%
17 Jul 2017   804525194568..........13.53%
2 Jul 2017.........708659466230..........-0.43%
17 Jun 2017   711697198173...........4.85%
4 Jun 2017   678760110082..........13.90%
23 May 2017   595921917085...........6.42%
10 May 2017   559970892890   7.28%
27 Apr 2017   521974519553   0.22%
13 Apr 2017   520808749422   4.24%
30 Mar 2017   499635929816   5.03%
17 Mar 2017   475705205061   3.24%
3 Mar 2017   460769358090   4.54%
18 Feb 2017   440779902286   4.41%
4 Feb 2017   422170566883   7.43%
22 Jan 2017   392963262344   16.64%
10 Jan 2017   336899932795   6.05%
28 Dec 2016   317688400354   2.43%
15 Dec 2016   310153855703   8.16%
2 Dec 2016   286765766820   1.76%
18 Nov 2016   281800917193   10.68%
5 Nov 2016   254620187304   0.40%

22 Oct 2016   253618246641   -1.90%

8 Oct 2016   258522748404   7.17%
25 Sep 2016   241227200229   6.82%
12 Sep 2016   225832872179   2.30%
29 Aug 2016   220755908330   1.56%
15 Aug 2016   217375482757   7.67%

[/b]2 Aug 2016   201893210853   -5.43%[/b]

18 Jul 2016   213492501107   0.04%
4 Jul 2016.........213398925331   1.88%
21 Jun 2016   209453158595   6.83%

8 Jun 2016   196061423939   -1.63%

24 May 2016   199312067531   2.60%
11 May 2016   194254820283   8.73%

28 Apr 2016   178659257772   -0.01%

14 Apr 2016   178678307671   7.09%
1 Apr 2016   166851513282   0.82%
18 Mar 2016   165496835118   4.46%

4 Mar 2016   158427203767   -3.10%

19 Feb 2016   163491654908   13.44%
7 Feb 2016   144116447847   20.06%
26 Jan 2016   120033340651   5.89%
13 Jan 2016   113354299801   9.12%
31 Dec 2015   103880340815   11.16%
18 Dec 2015   93448670796   18.14%
6 Dec 2015   79102380900   8.77%
24 Nov 2015   72722780642   10.44%
11 Nov 2015   65848255179   5.77%
29 Oct 2015   62253982449   2.25%
15 Oct 2015   60883825480   0.12%
1 Oct 2015   60813224039   2.49%
17 Sep 2015   59335351234   4.17%
4 Sep 2015   56957648455   4.98%
22 Aug 2015   54256630328   2.95%
8 Aug 2015   52699842409   0.81%
25 Jul 2015   52278304846   2.35%
11 Jul 2015   51076366303   3.39%

28 Jun 2015   49402014931   -0.58%

14 Jun 2015   49692386355   4.42%

31 May 2015   47589591154   -2.50%

17 May 2015   48807487245   2.44%
3 May 2015   47643398018   0.07%

19 Apr 2015   47610564513   -3.71%

5 Apr 2015   49446390688   5.84%

22 Mar 2015   46717549645   -1.50%

8 Mar 2015   47427554951   1.59%
22 Feb 2015   46684376317   5.01%
9 Feb 2015   44455415962   7.71%

27 Jan 2015   41272873895   -6.14%----- I think this is it for the contest

12 Jan 2015   43971662056   8.20%
30 Dec 2014   40640955017   3.00%

17 Dec 2014   39457671307   -1.37%
2 Dec 2014   40007470271   -0.73%

18 Nov 2014   40300030328   1.76%
5 Nov 2014   39603666252   10.05%
23 Oct 2014   35985640265   2.81%
9 Oct 2014   35002482026   0.98%

25 Sep 2014   34661425924   16.20%   contest did not start yet

13 Sep 2014   29829733124   8.75%
31 Aug 2014   27428630902   15.03%
19 Aug 2014   23844670039   20.86%
8 Aug 2014   19729645941   5.30%
25 Jul 2014   18736441558   8.08%
12 Jul 2014   17336316979   3.08%
29 Jun 2014   16818461371   24.93%
18 Jun 2014   13462580115   14.51%
5 Jun 2014   11756551917   12.44%
24 May 2014   10455720138   18.10%
12 May 2014   8853416309   10.66%
29 Apr 2014   8000872136   14.64%
17 Apr 2014   6978842650   14.04%
5 Apr 2014   6119726089   22.23%
24 Mar 2014   5006860589   17.80%
13 Mar 2014   4250217920   11.39%
28 Feb 2014   3815723799   21.92%
17 Feb 2014   3129573175   19.39%
5 Feb 2014   2621404453   19.49%
24 Jan 2014   2193847870   22.59%
13 Jan 2014   1789546951......26.16%
02 Jan 2014......1418481395......20.12%
21 Dec 2013......1180923195......30.01%

Dec 10 2013   908,350,862   28.41%   6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013   707,408,283   16.07%   5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013   609,482,680   19.29%   4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013   510,929,738   30.70%   3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013   390,928,788   46.02%   2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013   267,731,249   41.45%   1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013   189,281,249   27.19%   1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013   148,819,200   32.13%   1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013   112,628,549   29.56%   806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013   86,933,018   32.22%   622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013   65,750,060   29.40%   470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013   50,810,339   35.88%   363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013   37,392,766   19.63%   267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013   31,256,961   19.47%   223,746 GH/s






all jumps are here

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DQYQOLsB-pJWGu5e8CXF4vkxdYHEJDOyxQptBmC_030/edit#gid=0


I found an early thread pre contest but a diff thread. by me

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/newest-btc-prediction-is-023-to-958-diff-jump-on-sept-28th-781447

whats been the biggest drop in hashrate during this contest? curious as to whether we are seeing anything near record drops in hash rate change.