a lot of people think just because of the reduced block reward that the price will go up
it wont , there will be less DGB per day but also the difficulty will go down ,
I would like a steady price increase over time in the next few months instead of a pump
It is certainly going to be interesting to see.
My theory is that mining is dominated by short term thinkers who sell as quickly as they mine (regardless of what is being mined). This theory describes a panorama where immediate ROI is paramount, and which includes hardware investment as well as daily operating costs. Long term investment is not a consideration. X amount is invested, Y pays for daily operating costs, and both must be recovered ASAP. There are fixed numbers to worked with - anything else is speculation - and these mining entities are "fixated" on these fixed numbers. All it takes is a quick look around and some quick math in order to come up with some pretty consistent reward to price ratios that support this argument that mining is dominated by entities who do nothing more that look at, and make decisions based on, these simple fixed numbers and very short term ROI goals.
If my theory is correct, DGB should triple in value in very short order.
To me, simply cutting the rewards three times will not increase the price 3 times right away in the short term. I know some peeps here looking for some fast profit x2-3, meaning that buy back x2-3 more DGB, but it may not be that straight
As it is said by jared, too, this is a long term vision and good for the future of DGB. And one thing you are forgetting here is that even though 3 times rewards will be lowered, new DGB coins will be inflated through the network. Therefore if there are no new buyers, then that will start short term dumps and price drops. But somehow this is good for DGB to settle with the new parameters of the block chain and the network. So in my case and my calculation in order: short term price increase for one day only when fork happened, then some dumps will follow, price will be stabilized for a while at low until the next announcement or piece of work target is achieved. Then we will start going upwards to 20-30sat range again (2-3 months), then whales will start investing which will take Dgb to 100 sat in a bit longer term (6-24 months). Within that 2-3 months, I personally expect a huge increase in bitcoin price, therefore some more dumps may occur in my opinion.
