a lot of people think just because of the reduced block reward that the price will go up
it wont , there will be less DGB per day but also the difficulty will go down ,
I would like a steady price increase over time in the next few months instead of a pump
It is certainly going to be interesting to see.
My theory is that mining is dominated by short term thinkers who sell as quickly as they mine (regardless of what is being mined). This theory describes a panorama where immediate ROI is paramount, and which includes hardware investment as well as daily operating costs. Long term investment is not a consideration. X amount is invested, Y pays for daily operating costs, and both must be recovered ASAP. There are fixed numbers to worked with - anything else is speculation - and these mining entities are "fixated" on these fixed numbers. All it takes is a quick look around and some quick math in order to come up with some pretty consistent reward to price ratios that support this argument that mining is dominated by entities who do nothing more that look at, and make decisions based on, these simple fixed numbers and very short term ROI goals.
If my theory is correct, DGB should triple in value in very short order.
To me, simply cutting the rewards three times will not increase the price 3 times right away in the short term. I know some peeps here looking for some fast profit x2-3, meaning that buy back x2-3 more DGB, but it may not be that straight
As it is said by jared, too, this is a long term vision and good for the future of DGB. And one thing you are forgetting here is that even though 3 times rewards will be lowered, new DGB coins will be inflated through the network. Therefore if there are no new buyers, then that will start short term dumps and price drops. But somehow this is good for DGB to settle with the new parameters of the block chain and the network. So in my case and my calculation in order: short term price increase for one day only when fork happened, then some dumps will follow, price will be stabilized for a while at low until the next announcement or piece of work target is achieved. Then we will start going upwards to 20-30sat range again (2-3 months), then whales will start investing which will take Dgb to 100 sat in a bit longer term (6-24 months). Within that 2-3 months, I personally expect a huge increase in bitcoin price, therefore some more dumps may occur in my opinion.
Some things i agree and some things i don't.
Yes in short term there will be some dumping when the price is going up because of the fork. Around 25 sat.
If we do not get any new announcement people will take there quick profit.
Digibyte is now working with 12 members. There will be some new announcements soon after the hardfork and that will get the price up to i think 45/60 sat. Why 45/60? I'm counting in the reduction,Digibyte trusted level,new announcement & Miners want to get payd for what they are mining so less will be selling at prices around 20 sat.
in the mid/"long"term you are talking about. i think Digibyte will be around 150-250+ sat. It's just really depending of what Digibyte have to offer in 2015.
Maybe it sounds ridiculous but i even think that when Digibyte will announce who the investor is and what the plans are. 500 sat is a price i'm thinking about
We will see
You have to look at the marketcap then. 150 sat per DGB means a 1,5 M $ market cap. 500 Sat means 5 M $ marketcap. To reach that DGB must have a real real world use like a huge payment processor or something like that. with so much coins it is really hard to get a high marketcap.
My little contribution about this : some points are not taken into account.
1 - A coin market cap isn't limited only by its number of total coins or by the number of produced coins a day. It depends more on everything which is around the coins : payment processor, mobile apps, merchants adoption etc...
2 - Some of you forget one important thing too : we are not so far from a scenario like the stock market crash of 1929. For some specialists, a crisis like this can happen in our life, even if we don't really know when it will happen. But it will happen... in the next year, in 5, 10, 20, 50 years... nobody knows. I'm not saying this to create some useless fear, but we can't be sure that flat currencies will rules the world for ages. And if this scenario will happen, some Digital currencies will probaby be adopted more widely... and DGB can be one of them.
3 - A possible scenario of crisis in the Digital currencies market can happened too (in fact, it's already the case, 2013 was the boom of digital currencies, 2014 was the decline of digital currencies). But if this continue, the majority of the actual digital currencies will disappear... and only some of them will survive. DGB can be one of this coin.
Finally, I want to say one more time : Guys... don't speak only about the actual price of Digibyte. Time for success will come, don't panic... but you have to wait more than only few days.
