HR,
What's your analysis based on this?
YC
What's your analysis based on this?
YC
As you’ve most likely already found out by reading the information provided by www.thepatternsite.com , it’s all about probabilities. The Pattern Site is probably the most comprehensive source of statistical studies on these and many other trading patterns, from the likelihood to break either higher or lower, to probabilities on expected price movements after breakout or breakdown, that I know of.
In spite of its comprehensive and studious nature, The Pattern Site can’t do it all, nor does it purport to do so. Important data points like the potential effects of a confluence of patterns, and the influence of long term support or resistance are not covered. Experienced traders know that a confluence of patterns can strengthen the force of the eventual breakout, although it does not change the probabilities concerning either an upward or downward breakout. However, when these patterns group together at either support or resistance, those probabilities do change – the likelihood of a breakdown at resistance is higher, and the opposite is true when they form at support.
Another important factor to keep in mind is what is referred to as a ‘trap’. There are bull traps and bear traps at highs and lows respectively. A trap is formed when the last of the bulls buy before a reversal lower, or the last of the bears panic sell into what turns out to be the ultimate lows before a reversal higher. This can happen, and does. In the current situation, a break below the symmetrical triangle would signal a test of recent lows, and a break of those lows an almost guaranteed trip down into the depths of the abyss. Traps of this sort, exhaustion in nature, at the end of an intermediate or long term trend, tend to reverse quickly. The long and the short of this is that even though the probabilities are high that support holds and DGB begins a long term uptrend, they do not rule out the possibility of a panic capitulation by sellers first, even if those odds are low.
Again, there are no guarantees in these kinds of markets, but the probabilities in this case favor at least an intermediate trend change and perhaps even a long term trend change starting from current levels. It could even be that we find ourselves saying sometime in the very near future that DGB will never see these prices again, NEVER, but I’ll wait to see what kind of uptrend develops first before going that far, and I’ll also be very ready to buy any panic break of lows hand over fist!
let's hope the mantainer wakes up before Saturday, he does not look too active on reddit (last post is from 10 days ago). can he be reached outside of reddit, that you know? 
