Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner - page 35.

rpietila

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Quote from: molecular on October 23, 2013, 02:32:08 PM

I somehow hope I'm completely wrong with this guesswork of mine.

I will soon update, this is just the theory part to my reply

Your guesswork does not obey the mathematical distribution models that I firmly believe it should obey. This flaw is apparently because you did not use equilength (in log scale) brackets.

The distribution of bitcoins should, in my understanding, conform to one of these distributions, where X=log(number of bitcoins) and Y=(number of owners of the given number of bitcoins).

Now, if we calculate the integral over a bracket (which is one unit-length of the X-axis), we find the total number of bitcoins held by people in that bracket.

From the mathematical, probabilistic nature of the distributions, follows that the total bitcoins owned by people in different brackets cannot behave arbitrarily. Ie. the parameters are:
-how many bitcoins do the top owner(s) have
-how many owners are there in total
-one or two parameters to define the shape of the curve.

This can easily be checked by arranging the data to log-equilength brackets and demanding that the number of bitcoins owned by people in the bracket is either continuously higher than in previous bracket, or lower. At most the 1st derivative should have 1 root and behave nicely.

dserrano5

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Quote from: Rassah on October 23, 2013, 04:24:15 PM

This may be somewhat useless for this, as active wealthy bitcoin holders split up their holdings into lots of smaller parts, so as not to reveal their learge wealth moving around whenever they want to buy something.

Yeah but I assume OP understands the difference between people and addresses. This is another reason I asked before cooking the data.

Rassah

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Quote from: dserrano5 on October 23, 2013, 03:24:37 PM

Quote from: rpietila on October 23, 2013, 10:56:47 AM

Does anyone have the table for all addresses that have a balance, grouped similarly as here?

Someone posted in august a list of all addresses with balance. I saved a copy and can easily aggregate the balances in log buckets. Would that be ok for your purposes considering that it's 2.5 months old?

This may be somewhat useless for this, as active wealthy bitcoin holders split up their holdings into lots of smaller parts, so as not to reveal their learge wealth moving around whenever they want to buy something.

Rassah

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Quote from: rpietila on October 22, 2013, 05:41:07 PM

But although surprising, it seems that with our remaining stash of BTC1,000 we both fit into Bitcoin top-1000 Grin

Our remaining stash? How do you come to conclusion that I have a BTC1,000 stash?

dserrano5

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Quote from: rpietila on October 23, 2013, 03:28:09 PM

I think it works just fine. Thanks a lot!

Code:

      1 >=100000 BTC
     96 10000-99999.99 BTC
   1420 1000-9999.99 BTC
   9896 100-999.99 BTC
  80257 10-99.99 BTC
 121541 1-9.99 BTC
 147693 0.1-0.99 BTC
1477264 <0.1 BTC

Edit: one has to consider that the 10-99.99 BTC is somewhat inflated due to the sheer amount of addresses with 50 BTC coming from 4 years of mining rewards.

rpietila

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Quote from: dserrano5 on October 23, 2013, 03:24:37 PM

Quote from: rpietila on October 23, 2013, 10:56:47 AM

Does anyone have the table for all addresses that have a balance, grouped similarly as here?

Someone posted in august a list of all addresses with balance. I saved a copy and can easily aggregate the balances in log buckets. Would that be ok for your purposes considering that it's 2.5 months old?

I think it works just fine. Thanks a lot!

dserrano5

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Quote from: rpietila on October 23, 2013, 10:56:47 AM

Does anyone have the table for all addresses that have a balance, grouped similarly as here?

Someone posted in august a list of all addresses with balance. I saved a copy and can easily aggregate the balances in log buckets. Would that be ok for your purposes considering that it's 2.5 months old?

molecular

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Quote from: justusranvier on October 23, 2013, 01:36:39 PM

Why not create a poll here asking readers which of the brackets they fall into?

The ones in the high brackets will lie and the ones in the low brackets aren't here.

molecular

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Quote from: rpietila on October 23, 2013, 10:56:47 AM

Quote from: molecular on October 23, 2013, 02:32:06 AM

rpietila, in general I think your table is roughly accurate. It matches quite well what I have in my head about the BTC holdings distribution. Thanks for sharing!

Perhaps you send your proposal as a table for all to see

[...]

If your estimate is correct, the bitcoin holding is even more top-heavy than in my calculation. Since you will have to add 100 holders in between 10-100k (100*30k) = 3.0 million to the equation.

Therefore all smaller holders would have <5 million, combined. Show me the results as a table!

#People	#Bitcoins	poeple * avg
1	BTC1m-1.5m	1.25M
2	BTC500k-1m	1.5M
3	BTC250k-500k	1.125M
7	BTC150k-250k	1.4M
15	BTC50k-150k	1.5M
50	BTC10k-50k	1.5M
300	BTC2.1k-10k	1.85M
1000	BTC100-2.1k	1.1M
5000	BTC10-100	275k
10000	BTC1-10	55k
50000	BTC0.1-1	27.5k
150000	BTC0.00000001-0.1	7.5k

total sum of last column: 11,555,000 BTC

into the last column I put the avg("from", "to") * "# of people" . In below chart this avg was used for the blue bars.

pulled out of my ass and yes: it's extremely top heavy compared to rpietilas distribution.

It's interesting that the groups down to and including the "100-2.1k" group all sum up to pretty much the same amount. (I didn't manipulate this, it was a surprise to me). Maybe I'm underestimating the number of people in the lower groups ("0.00000001-0.1" through "10-100")? There's probably more that 10,000 people with holding of 1 to 10 BTC, no? I'm really not sure.

I somehow hope I'm completely wrong with this guesswork of mine.

600watt

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who has majored in statistics and can help us with this analysis ? there must be ways to squeeze out more info about this out of the public data.

those figures may be of some value for bitcoin companies. besides that it is really interesting to see where one stands.

maybe satoshi wakes up one morning with the brilliant idea not to sell his stash for dollars but rather giving it away for free to ~~people in need~~ mediocre early adopters Cool

edit: nice thread

Adrian-x

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Quote from: justusranvier on October 23, 2013, 01:46:40 PM

Personally, I'd vote in a poll where I specified the logarithmic range of my holdings long before I'd consider giving out the exact value, like some other threads ask for...

There is a lot of merit in how the question is asked, and what the goal is for gathering the info.
I had in mind something akin to polls of the past.

I tried to get a glimpse into this pattern in this pole (also molecular Simon Sinek has a great TED talk link in the pole about Law of Diffusion of Innovations.)

We are still in the innovators stage, although the law of large numbers will spared out over a similar bell cure, it is hard to see the mechanism by which it will happen.

justusranvier

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Personally, I'd vote in a poll where I specified the logarithmic range of my holdings long before I'd consider giving out the exact value, like some other threads ask for...

Adrian-x

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Quote from: ?? on ??

So many millionaire in Bitcoiners. What if they decided to dump all of them at this high price

The exchange rate would drop, and they wouldn't be $ millionaires anymore

Adrian-x

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Quote from: justusranvier on October 23, 2013, 01:36:39 PM

Why not create a poll here asking readers which of the brackets they fall into?

like I want to give that info away, (in addition poll participants are small samples)

Mike Christ

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Quote from: justusranvier on October 23, 2013, 01:36:39 PM

Why not create a poll here asking readers which of the brackets they fall into?

Because they will lie Tongue

justusranvier

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Why not create a poll here asking readers which of the brackets they fall into?

Adrian-x

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Quote from: molecular on October 23, 2013, 02:44:34 AM

I don't know if it applies to bitcoin holdings distribution.

Diffusion of Innovations, sure it applies to distribution of holdings, for Bitcoin to be effective it need to be distributed optimaly among the users, rpietila's final distribution estimate may be wrong but it's close.

rpietila

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Quote from: molecular on October 23, 2013, 02:32:06 AM

rpietila, in general I think your table is roughly accurate. It matches quite well what I have in my head about the BTC holdings distribution. Thanks for sharing!

Perhaps you send your proposal as a table for all to see

Quote from: molecular on October 23, 2013, 02:32:06 AM

Quote from: rpietila on October 22, 2013, 02:51:14 PM

What we need to make this analysis more accurate, is to gain answers to the following:

- Does Satoshi have access to the "mystery miner" keys or are they lost?

we won't know until he moves these coins. Afaik they are still sitting there (~1 million coins unmoved, see my post linked below for more exact data). I suggest we simply assume he still has access to them.

In Finnish forums it is vehemently opposed that Satoshi even has mined the coins. I can't see why and by what grounds it should be opposed... I think Sergio's analysis is very clear in this matter, even measuring in 0.1% accuracy that Satoshi has 980k coins.

Quote from: rpietila on October 22, 2013, 02:51:14 PM

- What is the likely stash DPR controls

my guess is 100-200kBTC

DPR is not known to have spent much money. I think it cannot be assumed that 400-500k has just been lost in the span of only 2 years.

This assumes that the figure FBI published (600k total revenue to the site during its existence) is correct. But I thought they extracted it from SR own database. In my understanding these are commissions against which there are essentially no costs.

Until there is some evidence to the contrary, I would be inclined to use 500k as DPR figure. Very eager to hear thoughts?

Quote from: rpietila on October 22, 2013, 02:51:14 PM

- How many individuals have BTC100,000+ holdings in addition to the previous

This is hard to guess. I would guess: Satoshi (1 million), 2-3 friends of Satoshi (2.5 * 500k), about 3-4 early GPU miners (3.5 * 250k), about 5-10 dudes like DPR (7.5 * 150k). Sum: 4.25 million BTC.

If your estimate is correct, the bitcoin holding is even more top-heavy than in my calculation. Since you will have to add 100 holders in between 10-100k (100*30k) = 3.0 million to the equation.

Therefore all smaller holders would have <5 million, combined. Show me the results as a table!

Quote from: rpietila on October 22, 2013, 02:51:14 PM

- How many bitcoin investors there are in total.

This is very hard to guess. We can put an upper bound using the blockchain (number of addresses ever used) assuming they hold their keys privately. In early 2012 this was about 500k Addresses. Anyone have newer data? We can probably divide this by at least 10 due to people using multiple addresses (I'm pretty sure I used 200 addresses myself already).

Does anyone have the table for all addresses that have a balance, grouped similarly as here? It might give quite good clues: if we take a sample of people holding different amounts of bitcoins, and then they post their data on how it resides in different addresses, we can estimate the "conversion function" on how to convert the distribution table of addresses to the distribution table of holders!

Quote

I have loads of ideas how to pull different kinds of relevant data from the blockchain... but these analyses are not simple to conduct.

This is the place to post them

Topic: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner - page 35. (Read 153396 times)