Yes you are right. Using instinct to do a good analysis based on performance too can be accurate. I have also had the experience in the past were i did an analysis on a club performance so i could bet accurately and after that i had to do with my instinct and it worked out perfectly well
That is a better way of using our instinct and not just we don't back it up by something that can increase our chances to become right. Even though we think we are confident, it is still or always better to double-check things out. This can also be called as common sense at most times and it is naturally or automatically done by us humans. When doing analysis, performance should be the main subject but we can include others too like the weather condition, the area of which the event will get held, and so on...
After all, I won't still be 100 percent confident or say that I can now guarantee a win because sometimes shit can still happen. This is gambling anyway, so expect that we can still be unlucky sometimes apart from being unlucky and then there are also manipulations that can screw us because gambling is also a business.
but in some cases too the opposite is the case when you expect a bigger team to beat the smaller team hands down but it went the other way round after you just analyzed it yourself and maybe the feelings in favor of the smaller team was there but you just imagined the impossibility of that to happen and it played out that the smaller team won. I had this experience just few days ago between Liverpool and Real Madrid but it was the other way round and I lost the bet as Liverpool won the match.
If it always works like that, then there is no thrill anymore and it can give us an easy and quick money, which is too good to be true already, no wonder why it didn't happened. Nothing is impossible in gambling and if your gut says something, you can also try to follow it and who knows? You can get lucky and experience a win that you never seen before.