https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731
just like cases dropped 70% in 6 weeks from april to may last year
it dropped again from january/february
the reason
soclal restrictions
yep its caused by the lockdown. not by immunity.
if you just look at the case numbers and calculate the under 1% spread per fortnight. then to get to 60% would be more then 60 fortnights(120 weeks(2.4 years))
the true test of vaccination effectiveness in the community is not case drops during lockdown. but lack of hospitalisation case increases when lockdowns relaxed.
but they cant just relax lockdown fully in one go and 'wait and see' they need to get the cases down to a safe level. and then slowly relax the lockdown and keep the hospitalisation R rate below 1
what you will see logically with relaxation stages is instead of 2-3 week adjustments based on case numbers they will be 4-5 week stages based on hospital numbers
so dont plan on exotic foreign vacations for easter or summer. but you might get a domestic staycation in your area or in-country by summer