Topic: Do you think mining will be profitable again ? - page 2. (Read 7116 times)

Only with cheap or free electricity, difficulty is rising sky-high and Bitcoin prices are remaining relatively low. It's just easier to purchase Bitcoin's from a trusted exchange, mining requires not only electricity, but in the summer you must have a way to dissipate the heat.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

look at the 9 month chart.

look at this list:

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s


To me this is my turning point in difficulty Adjustment,  It happened due to the end of the s-1 and the start of the s-3

The s-1 by bitmaintech was a 2 watt miner
The s-3 by bitmaintech was a .8 watt miner


Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014   5,006,860,589   17.80%   35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014   4,250,217,920   11.39%   30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014   3,815,723,799   21.92%   27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014   3,129,573,175   19.39%   22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014   2,621,404,453   19.49%   18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014   2,193,847,870   22.59%   15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014   1,789,546,951   26.16%   12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014   1,418,481,395   20.12%   10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013   1,180,923,195   30.01%   8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013   908,350,862   28.41%   6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013   707,408,283   16.07%   5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013   609,482,680   19.29%   4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013   510,929,738   30.70%   3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013   390,928,788   46.02%   2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013   267,731,249   41.45%   1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013   189,281,249   27.19%   1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013   148,819,200   32.13%   1,065,289 GH/s

I suggest you do some reading the subjects have been covered plenty of times.

hello sir,
iam newbie in bitcoin hunter, i want to know deeply system of mining bitcoin, can u suggest me where i can find basic knowledge of mining?
and how a graph is growth ?
thanks

With the right conditions it still can be profitable.  The main two things are electricity price and if vat/import tax.  Those can make or break home mining.

I do agree it's changed from two years ago as GPU's were pretty much on a 3 month ROI for a long time and had a awesome secondary market to sell to.

Depends on what means profitable for you... It's very unlikely to be profitable like 2 years ago.
Mining cryptocurrency is still profitable if you afford to invest a lot of money.

Any big farm not swapping high power  w/gh for low power w/gh  thus keeping hashpower  flat and power  cost lower is fiscally irresponsible.

I believe they finally figured this out thus flat hash rate..   

Pardon me while I pat myself on my back and toot my horn.  I must have said this since last September more then one or two or thrre or four or five or six or ?? times.
  While I would like to think my diff threads led large builders to this course of action , my ego is not that big.  I only hope they continue in this direction since they have zero need to grow hashpower faster then 1 or 2 % a jump.

I actually think we have seen a "pause" in the last few months. Not an actual stoppage of mining, but rather a pause in the crazy pace of hashrate expansion. The introduction rate of new mining hardware has slowed. It's not clear if the "Arms Race: mentality is just a temporary hold, or a long term trend.

When you think about it, what should a big farm do when they the option to buy a newer and more efficient miner? Should they just replace the gear with an equivalent number of Watts (more or less), and enjoy the increased hash rate? Or perhaps they should consider replacing their gear on a "Gigahash equivalent" basis and enjoy a lower electric bill. The downside to "More Gigahash same power" plan is that a couple of weeks later the difficulty adjustment may well dissipate a great deal of their gain they expected to acquire. If you kinda look at the whole Bitcoin mining universe, it would likely make more sense to reduce the total electric bill, and not push up the difficulty.

That's kind of a simplistic view, and not every miner will follow that plan, but it's becoming more obvious to me that efficiency is starting to become King, and in many cases not just who's got more hash.

Yeah, I`m aware the whole mining opertors to pause is just a hopeful thinking lol.

But, people obviously cant speculate the on price jump.

I personally just gave up mining all together have some on SP partnered cloud mining, and been just buying instead. I just feel like me selling normal items for bitcoin is also just a better route as well.

Items such as iphone 5 in bulk through a liquidation site, and fixing them.

I would agree a pause is hard.  Having all the equipment and capability to mine.... chances are you keep mining till it is no longer profitable.   

I could see underclocking and underclocking based on changes in market.  Such as high rental prices, etc.  Yes that could happen.

But total shutdown is tough for bottom line.

they can't stop and pause, or the network will be vulnerabile, not to mention they will lose huge amount of money, even for a tiny "pause"

the only way for a casual miner to return in the mining scene and take profit, is to be ready when the price skyrocket, taking advantages of the diff retarget time

maybe this is another reason why satoshi set the diff retarget not so low

I feel like the era of mining can happen again only if several big operators stop and pause.

But other then that, the average user cant really get much.

Unless you take advantage of the paused operation you fill in the similar risk that they took, but you take it on a smaller scale.

With this mentality the logical jump is why even sell to joe q public avoid the hassle. The reason they are selling them on is to make profit. Mine it. Sell it. Repeat. It is not like they are saying oh we have a few extra here better throw them on the network. They make the unit it is immediately pressed into mining and then sell off whatever they can after reaping the most they can from it via mining. Is it unethical? No. All the power to them to do it. The fact remains it makes no sense to be a home miner now so the only winners here are those selling the units. Stop ordering miners for small to medium sized operations. It is over.

Again the end game is now as soon as too few people buy units off the farm like this to make this a viable business model they will stop doing it. Meaning by 2016 will be the end of the road if not sooner for companies relying solely on this model like Avalon does or has tried. Bitmain is sufficiently set up to FARM massively so they will not care too much either way and will gouge every penny they can from those still foolish enough to keep buying. This is the way it will continue until there are no customers left willing to buy miners at a loss with no hope of ROI. Not everyone has realized it yet I guess most have and some people continue to keep pushing home mining for no other reason I guess but to get paid for the signature campaigns far as I can tell.

This post's for you.

Batch allows companies to produce miners without pre-ordering so that is good in my book.   I personally don't like pre-ordering.

But you cant expect a mining company to not use a miner that is not sold.   If a few weeks or a month they would take a pretty good loss from leaving it in a box.

Most other industries recognize the difference between "new" and "used". While I completely understand that Bitcoin mining hardware depreciates way faster than almost anything else, lots of other equipment depreciates while it sits unused. That car that arrives on the dealers lot today, that then doesn't sell until November will sell for less than if it sold next week. It's still "new" and will be treated as such, but the dealer will certainly not expect to receive the same as it sells before the new model year cars start to arrive. It has depreciated in value, even though it hasn't been used by any stretch of the imagination.

The Apple iPhone N-1 that arrived at the Walmart store 3 weeks before the iPhone N, will not sell for the same price as when the first iPhone N-1 was introduced. Walmart understand that it's not as valuable and sells it for less before it depreciates even more. It didn't get used, and still depreciated.

The only real difference is that a Bitcoin miner has a much shorter economic life span than an iPhone or a car.

I would also argue that a miner as used by a mining farm, really isn't all the different from a car that was acquired by Hertz, Avis, National, Alamo and so forth. They are both a machine used to make money. The car just depreciates less quickly than the miner. Both are resold at near then of their economic life span, a few months for the miner, maybe 2-3 years for the rental car. Both had ongoing cost while they were being used, and had risks of damage or loss.

I understand that it's not in the sellers best interest to let the machine sit in a box, but running flat out for a month until somebody actually pays for it and it's shipped on it's way, isn't really the same as "new" is it?

I think the "batch model" is just a manufacturing convenience for the vendor.

I won't belabor the point any more, but obscuring the difference between "new" and "used" is largely driven by the manufacturers to their benefit.

Is there anyway to make extra profit by pool hopping like on Antpool when its having a bad luck day?

I tried the Nicehash/Westhash mining on F2 but too many people are doing it that the spread isn't large enough to make any actual profit.

Anyone know how the PPLNS work on Antpool?


Earlier today

354948   2015-05-04 18:18:01   000000000000000003aebef4f27f4d7f1153137f234b407cb38732819e8e95bd   25.14659258   43/120   3h 47m 39s     26.25%   57.07 PH/s   181,488,452,448
354930   2015-05-04 14:30:22   000000000000000008a270742bf9d932df2ef71d03ea9ecdd03706e82d05347e   25.05103519   61/120   3h 19m     30.16%   56.82 PH/s   157,962,257,008


It had very bad luck on 2 blocks but if you jumped in and mined the next 7 blocks youre luck would have been 250%.


But would your shares actually count on the next 7 blocks? No idea exactly how PPLNS works

Most cars are not a machine that makes money.
so to use a car is tough to think it is the correct comparable.

 This is not an easy industry.  We are now in tough times with tight profits. Not sure what will happen in the long run. It would be nice to see a price runup.

It is a specialty product.  If they put them in a box and don't use  it loses value each day.  New cars don't normally lose value when sitting there.  And GPU is a different monster they were made for the gaming industry, mining just happened to be something they also did.

When you buy a new miner you get a warranty.  So this helps, it gives you time to test the miner and make sure it works good.  Unless they are pre-ordered I would consider the batch system normal.  And with making in batches it is normal to plug in till sold, not just leave in a box. 

While this may be considered normal behavior for a Bitcoin mining manufacturer in the last year or so, it's not normal behavior for a whole host of other vendors. Think Automobile dealer for example. Their new cars sitting on the lot depreciate, though much less quickly than mining gear. You could argue that they should rent them until somebody actually buys them, but there are a whole host of constraints on that kind of behavior in the US. Would you buy a "new" car that already had 3000 miles on it? What about a GPU manufacturer 2 years ago?

I would argue that this definition of "normal behavior" has been forced on purchasers over the last 12-18 months. I don't know if BFL was the first one to do it or not, but it's certainly not limited to them.

With miner's they have to use them before until they sell.   They are a item that loses money if they put it in a box and wait for sale.  And most are made in batches meaning there are more miners then will be sold immediately.

If they don't announce them and run them yes it's a different thing.   But if plugged in until it sales I would consider this normal.