Topic: Do you think mining will be profitable again ? - page 4. (Read 7116 times)

Yeah!
Mining will be profitable again. If bitcoin price goes up or difficuly rate decrese.
And yes! There some miners exist. Because they're no solo miners. Merged mining will always be profitable.


~Rude Boy

My power rates will go from 10.6 cents per kWH during winter and 12.1 cents per kWH during summer to 3.4 cents per kWH all year round when I move from Alabama to Washington State.  You will be surprised how long one can go with even older hardware in an area with this cheap of power costs.  If the price of bitcoin were to go down significantly, the difficulty would go down significantly.  Why?  Because those who do not have as cheap of electricity will cut off their rigs while those with less than 5 cents per kWH will continue mining.  If you move to an area with less than 5 cents per kWH, you are set!  Plain and simple!  You do need some capital to get started, though.  I recommend going big.  1,000 TH/s should be your minimum goal if you move to a location with less than 5 cents per kWH.

The data I provided above reveals one needed to increase their hash rate 6.08 times what it was a year ago to mine the same amount of coin they mined a year ago [if they actually started a year ago].  That means you needed to increase your hash rate by 608% to mine the same amount of coin you did a year prior.  I see that number going down to 1.5 or 1.2 times (50% to 20%) by November of December of this year.  

My first day of mining was September 22, 2014.  I expect the difficulty by that same time in 2015 to be approximately 54 billion to 58 billion.  Let us use the more conservative 58 billion number.  The difficulty on September 25, 2014 was 34,661,425,924.  If the difficulty on September 25, 2015 is 58 billion, that would be approximately a 1.67 times increase.  Meaning, I would have needed to increase my hash rate by 67% to mine the same amount of coin I mined a year prior when I started.  I started with 10 S3+'s or 4.7 TH/s (over clocked just a hair).  I now have 45 TH/s (under clocked).  I could wind them up to a little over 50 TH/s if I wanted to.  I've increased my hash rate by 1000% or a little over 10 times what I started with.

Mining at home is probably still profitable if you mine the right alts and then trade at the right time.

Mining bitcoin will probably never be profitable for most people in developed countries with expensive electricity.

If you live somewhere with ridiculously cheap electricity then maybe for a while yet if you have efficient hardware.

You are welcome...

You are right!  Providing only the data without much clarification could be seen as "too much" or just "rambling."

Of course, it's still a competition of sorts between us miners and the mining rig manufacturers have that competition as well.  We even have a couple new manufacturers coming into the fray to provide competition among manufacturers.  What the manufacturers create has a profound affect on those who will mine bitcoin.  I'm fairly certain the next generation rigs will create another substantial growth in difficulty.  However, this also depends on supply and demand.  The price of the 3rd generation rigs in relation to bitcoin price can affect demand as well.  I know I don't have to tell you any of this.  I'm only thinking out loud.

You're right; this is not a get rich quick profession.  Unfortunately, 90 days ROI is probably over.  The only ones who stand a chance with ROI in a time frame less than 6 months would be those who have less than 5 cents per kWH power costs.

I also think "new" alt coins [such as SLING] have played a roll with providing a reduction in bitcoin difficulty as of late.  How long this continues is unknown.  I don't mind new coins.  That's better for other miners who choose to continue in bitcoin while others mine alt coin that is also SHA-256.

Thank you for going into more details.  I was able to understand this version much better.

I agree that now is a interesting time for mining.  We have had low difficulty changes, and even negative changes.  I think it is a good time for miners long term.  It's not a get rich quick, or 90 day ROI anymore.  But still a good time to be a miner if conditions are right.

I mainly wanted to post the data to prove this point:

The amount we need to increase our hash rate in a year's time to mine the same amount of bitcoin is reducing month after month.  For example:

If we started mining June 29, 2013, the difficulty was 21,335,329.  If we were still mining by Jun 29 2014, the difficulty had risen to 16,818,461,371.  That means the difficulty rose 788.3 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 788.3 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.].  Example:  If you had 2 TH/s on June 29, 2013, multiply this by 788.3 to come up with how many TH/s you would need a year later (June 29, 2014) to mine the same amount of coin you mined a year prior = 1,576.6 TH/s.

Let us move forward to Apr. 17, 2014.  The difficulty then was 6,978,842,650.  A year later, on Apr 19, 2015 the difficulty increased to 47,610,564,513.  That means the difficulty rose 6.8 times more than what it was a year prior. [Your hash rate would have to be 6.8 times more than what it was this time a year prior to mine the same amount of coin.]  Example:

If you started out with 2 TH/s on April 17, 2014, your hash rate on April 19, 2015 would have to be 6.8 x 2 = 13.6 TH/s.

So, looking at both of these examples.  Can you see as each month passes, the amount our hash rate needs to increase from a year prior is decreasing significantly every difficulty change?  This reveals it is probably better to get in now more than any other time in mining PROVIDING one goes big in an area with power costs less than 5 cents per kWH.

I can see the difficulty being approximately 68 billion by the first week of December, 2015 with 3rd generation rigs on the market.  The difficulty on December 2, 2014 was 40,007,470,271.  That means the difficulty would have risen 1.699 (1.7) times of what it was a year prior.  This also means if you started with 2 TH/s on December 2, 2014, your hash rate would have to be 2 x 1.7 = 3.4 TH/s to mine the same amount of bitcoin you mined a year prior.

This data was posted to reveal how the race with difficulty to continue mining the same amount of bitcoin is looking better for us each difficulty change.  You do not have to add as many rigs to your present set up to mine the same amount of coin you mined a year prior as each difficulty change occurs every two weeks.  My estimation of the difficulty being 68,000,000,000 in the first week of December is only an educated guess.  I'm not for certain what it will be.  I only posted the data to reveal to miners we do not have to increase our hash rate as much as months prior to mine the same amount of coin we did a year ago.

That post has been posted twice I still have not made it through it all the way.  It's almost unreadable at parts, just to much infomation not enough organization.  I'm sure it took a lot of time though.

And mining is a lot different at this point.  A year ago we were having lots of double digit difficulty changes.  Now it's rare for a double digit change.  There is just a heck of a lot of hash on the network.

A lot of calculations, but keep in mind that the ASIC companies have the first dibs on the newer generation chips. They use them to mine, increase difficulty and then ship. After that huge mining farms, especially in China, mines at a lower cost than the individual.

In the end it doesnt matter what the price or transistor size is, mining will always be unprofitable for the small scale miner.

Look at this investigation of "difficulty" to see how it is reducing every month for year over year to help determine if mining is profitable.  You also need cheap power and the capital to buy a substantial amount of rigs:

This difficulty was reduced April 19, 2015 to 47,610,564,513.  On Apr 17, 2014 the difficulty was 6,978,842,650.  That means your hash rate, from April 17, 2014 to April 19, 2015 needed to increase 6.8 times to mine the same amount of coin.  I plan on getting out WAAAAAAAAY ahead of the difficulty before the blocks halve and also have electricity rates of 3.4 cents per kWH to make the block halving much easier to bare if the price of bitcoin is the same as what it is today ($ 238.00).

EDIT: Sunday, May 3, 2015.  Bitcoin difficulty on Apr 29 2014 was 8,000,872,136 [BTC-e $438.60].  On May 3, 2015 it was 47,643,398,018 [BTC-e $240.73].  That means the difficulty rose 5.95 times more than what it was a year prior. [Your hash rate would have to be 5.95 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]  So, if you had 10 TH/s a year ago, you need 59.5 TH/s today to mine the same amount of coin.

Bitcoin difficulty on Apr. 17 2014 was 6,978,842,650 [BTC-e $485.58].  On Apr 19, 2015 it was 47,610,564,513 [BTC-e $220.43].  That means the difficulty rose 6.8 times more than what it was a year prior. [Your hash rate would have to be 6.8 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Apr. 05 2014 was 6,119,726,089 [BTC-e $467.78].  On Apr 05 2015 it was 49,446,390,688 [BTC-e $257.01].  That means the difficulty rose 8.07 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 8.07 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Mar 24 2014 was 5,006,860,589 [BTC-e $588.71].  On Mar 22 2015 it was 46,717,549,645 [BTC-e $266.36].  That means the difficulty rose 9.3 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 9.3 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Feb 17 2014 was 3,129,573,175 [BTC-e $612.00].  On Feb 22 2015 it was 46,684,376,317 [BTC-e $230.23].  That means the difficulty rose 14.9 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 14.9 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Jan 24 2014 was 2,193,847,870 [BTC-e $774.98].  On Jan 27 2015 it was 41,272,873,895 [BTC-e $252.58].  That means the difficulty rose 18 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 18 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Jan 02 2014 was 1,418,481,395 [BTC-e $782.00].  On Dec 30 2014 it was 40,640,955,017 [BTC-e $308.86].  That means the difficulty rose 29 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 29 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Nov 29 2013   was 707,408,283 [BTC-e $1,019.60].  On Dec 02 2014 it was 40,007,470,271 [BTC-e $377.50].  That means the difficulty rose 56.5 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 56.5 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Oct 26 2013 was 390,928,788 [BTC-e $171.37].  On Oct 23 2014 it was 35,985,640,265 [BTC-e $354.17].  That means the difficulty rose 92 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 92 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Sep 25 2013 was 148,819,200 [BTC-e $122.55].  On Sep 25 2014 it was 34,661,425,924 [BTC-e $401.91].  That means the difficulty rose 232.9 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 232.9 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Aug 24 2013 was 65,750,060 [BTC-e $106.34].  On Aug 31 2014 it was 27,428,630,902 [BTC-e $475.90].  That means the difficulty rose 417.1 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 417.1 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Jul 22 2013 was 31,256,961 [BTC-e $84.50].  On Jul 25 2014 it was 18,736,441,558 [BTC-e $594.47].  That means the difficulty rose 599.4 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 599.4 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Jun 29 2013 was 21,335,329 [BitStamp $88.83].  On Jun 29 2014 it was 16,818,461,371 [BitStamp $599.86].  That means the difficulty rose 788.3 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 788.3 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

The numbers above reveal at one time we had as much as a 788.3 times increase in difficulty over a year's time.  That number has reduced to 8.07 times more than what we had the year prior.  The amount it increases year over year is being reduced every difficulty change quite significantly.  I think now is the best time to get into mining than this time last year.  I just started myself on September 22nd last year.  By September this year, the difficulty might be around 64,000,000,000.  That would be less than 2 times what it was September of 2014.  

Like I've told others, I think I got in at the right time.  I started out with 7 TH/s September 22, 2014.  I ought to have 210 TH/s by September this year.  That would be 30 times what I started out with September a year ago.  However, the difficulty will have only come a little shy of two times year over year.  I'm hoping to have 20 times that number in September of 2016 at 4,200 TH/s.  And again, the difficulty might be 2 or 3 times what it was the year over year for September 2016 but I will have done a 20 times increase.  I'll stop for a while somewhere in between 5,000 and 10,000 TH/s to recoup all of my investment and then some.  Then start again...

If you look at the numbers below [curtesy of https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty] you can see what I see.  For example:  On
On May 24, 2014 the difficulty was 10,455,720,138.  Do you honestly think it will be close to 10 times that at 100.4 Billion this coming May 24th of 2015?  I seriously doubt it.
On Jun 29, 2014 the difficulty was 16,818,461,371.  Do you honestly think it will be close to 10 times that at 160.8 Billion on June 29, 2015?  I seriously doubt it.
On Aug 31, 2014 the difficulty was 27,428,630,902.  Does one really believe it will be close to 10 times this at 270.4 Billion on August 31, 2015?  I seriously doubt it.

Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s

Yes, there is plenty of talk of the 3rd generation chips (rigs) coming out by the Summer of this year (2015).  The power efficiency and hash rate of these 3rd generation rigs remains to be seen.  Will 3rd generation rigs encourage miners who stopped mining to start back up again because of their power costs being above 15 cents per kWH?  More than likely.  Especially, if the price of bitcoin remains at the $235.00 to $335.00 level.  

If bitcoin price is higher than $335.00 by the end of November, 2015, we could definitely see more miners wanting to come back into the fray.  The only issue is will they be able to buy these 3rd generation rigs from those who will manufacture them?  The demand for power efficient 3rd generation rigs could be quite high.  The 3rd and 4th quarter of 2015 will be a very interesting time of year indeed for the miners.

For me two many cloud companies disappear.   And as far as "selling" you might be able to sell your contract, but in most cloud mining you don't own the gear.  If you own the gear your looking at hosting not cloud mining.

With mining at home or with miner in hosting facility you own a piece of hardware.  I think that means a lot as it has value normally.   It helps on ROI to be able to sell your miner at the end.    As far as optimizing you don't have to do much unless you are running a few miners, which is more hash then most invest in cloud.

And having is to far away to really know what it will do, or even consider it.  You just cant predict the effect.

I still prefer cloud simply due to the fact you can easily upgrade your cloud farm and more importantly get out and sell your farm in case you do not like how things develop.
It s gonna take months for a newbie to optimize the farm and everything related and do not forget we are getting closer to that reward reduction in 2016. Nobody knows how s that going to affect mining.

If they have cheap electricity and plan it out yes they can.  You get some of the advantages of scale as you buy from a asic maker who made a ton of machines.   Now you need cheap electricity, that is not everywhere I agree on that.  Also really need a place without high import tax/vat.

You just have to mine smart.  I personally have started to put together my summer mining area.  I will use fan's to cool miners during summer as AC is to expensive to do it with.

Home mining, probably not. Mining industry has become very competitive and it s very hard for newbies to actually build up any sizable farm size to stay in business. All in all, it depends on your electricity price and the ability to achieve economies of scale. In other words, to buy as many miners as possible at the lowest possible price. I highly doubt many newbies can do that.

Once it becomes close to a loss or a loss, I think smart miners act.  Most will sell the gear to homes with less electricity price.

Only those with "free" electricity will use the miners once they are unprofitable.

Im sorry... Why EVER mine at a loss. Just shut off miners, and instead of paying the money to the electric company buy BTC at market price.

Mine at a loss... No smart business person would do that. Mining is just a way to buy bitcoins.

Strato

Majority would stop mining I agree with this.   it would take a lot to make the big farms unprofitable.

I would guess I would always run a miner just as I love bitcoin.  But I would not be able to maintain a big hash rate.

if the price increases and difficulty stays the same then it will be profitable again but i don't think that will happen. IMO its better to buy bitcoin directly then mining.

Well those who believe in Bitcoin may even mine at a loss, however the majority will simply back out

there is more chance that they reached roi than mining at loss(it doesn't make sense to mine at loss, you can stop mining and waiting for the new opportunity windows when the btc price raise again), if they reached they are doen they can mine forever practically