Topic: Does martingale really works? - page 102. (Read 123304 times)

If you mean the 98% chance bets or whatever they are, doesn't work either. I ran 5 iterations also starting from 0.00000001, and all of those went bust before making it as well. It only takes like 7 fails in a row before you'd be up to a Bitcoin from there.

I think the "best" chance of doubling up (the least worst) is going for high return, like 25:1.

And it gets worse the higher your progression goes. As your final bet is simply the sum of the last two losing bets you'll only break even those two bets and any earlier ones will be losses. Last time I checked, interestingly enough flat betting was probably the best statistically (you don't risk bombing your whole stack unless your stack is tiny in comparison to your bets). But nonetheless you're still playing on variance and luck which means long term you lose.

It's a trade off.  You won't recover 100% with a single bet after a string of losers but losing an entire series will be less costly.  (As an alternative, you could require 2 non consecutive wins in a series)

How does that help out, though? If you lost 3x there and won the 4th, you'd have earned 6 but spent 7 (so you'd still be at a net loss). I'm not seeing how that's a good plan.

Gambling systems are fun to think about as long as you don't take
them too seriously and expect to actually profit.

A similar system to martingale is to use a Fibonacci series
Like 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34.

Strings of losses won't be quite as devastating as martingale.

Martingale can work over time, but still poses a great risk compared to the profits. The reason why I am sure there are mixed feelings over Martingale is because people run too high of starting bets for too long. Eventually any method will bust you if ran for ever. In order to show that I am not just speaking out or my arse, I will provide some mathematics to back up my opinion. Lets say you have around 10 BTC, and you set a starting bet of 1 satoshi *.00000001*, you can cover up to a 31 loss streak before busting. The chances of hitting this streak is fairly insignificant however if this method is run long term, you eventually will hit a 31 loss streak. The probability of a 31 loss streak is ~ 0.000000069% or in simpler terms 1 out of 1,428,571,428 streaks. With the 1 satoshi starting bet, you will gain 14.28571428 BTC before statistically hitting the 31 loss streak. You can get lucky and profit a lot more before this happening, or you can get unlucky and bust before this happening. Regardless of your luck, you have 42% odds in your favor, not to mention the fact that by the time you have gained this 14.285 BTC in profit, you can cover another loss or two. Over all Martingale proves to be profitable if run at the appropriate rates, however all methods only work until they don't work… Eventually no matter what numbers you put into that web terminal, you will lose your BTC. Lets just hope we all can cash out some profit before this happens.

Even starting at a single satoshi, you won't make it. It's been tried (using other coins, in my case I ran a test using 1 Dogoshi) and still fails every time before doubling up.

Simply put a martingale does not really work in practice because you always eventually run out of funds
Now if you had a really large amount or started from a single satoshi and doubled up every time
You would probably not be able to make that much and need to repeat the martingale sequence from the beginning after making a certain profit
But possible just time consuming

No. You just change the odds to a small probability of losing big. The house still has the edge.

If you play with target then it will work but if you continue with greed then nothing will work.

Still, martingale is pretty cool and give a slightly better chance of reaching your target.

It doesn't matter on the limits. An edge is an edge and will always statistically win.

Yes, that's why I promote dice with a fixed amount, and possibly with an edge (as a creator)

Yes, Martingale can bust, just like every other method.  Does it work?  Absolutely.  But like all methods it will eventually fail. 

Martingale is probably the easiest way to make small amount of money relatively quickly,, however play to long and you end up losing it all.

Hello,
Let me just say that martingale DONT work . It may be works in a perfect world. It is the fastest way to lose all of your money. I lost on roullette all my money for about 3 minutes after playing 10 hours poker and doubled my savings. Please do not use martingale!
BR

In simple word: No.

I think what he's trying is say is that it's extremely difficult to win over the long term. You can have winning streaks but for the most part it's human nature that you will give it all back and then some.  Other people who claim otherwise usually have an agenda of some kind.  Also, you can get addicted and then it's game over, your whole life will get screwed up.

This is just simply not true.  People win all the time.  I think what you mean is don't try and find some method and be a professional gambler. 

Gamble carefully is the correct words you should use..

I'm not sure how old you are or what your depth in the gambling world is, but I'll tell you one thing ..

You will never win in the long term.

I don't care what you read. What your drunk buddy claims he does. Or what you heard about somebody's grandmother does on a slot machine.

You are not winning! Ever!

The house has such a huge edge on any game you play. You are doomed from the get-go.

Get out of this forum and spend your time getting a job or starting a business. There's no good here.