Topic: Does martingale really works? - page 105. (Read 123304 times)
Yeah it always fails in the end. I used doge-dice for awhile and and used really small percentage of my total, but eventually the house always wins. It can take a long time though if you use really small percentages of your total. I got over half a million bets before going bust.
What martingale does is to create "very high win chance" bets.
With a strategy of base amount 0.001, 2x on loss, total budget 1.024 (busted in 10 consecutive losses), what you are really betting is 99.89% (=1-0.505^10) win chance bets.
So, you are just hoping you will never see a rare event happens (10 consecutive losses in this case).
With a strategy of base amount 0.001, 2x on loss, total budget 1.024 (busted in 10 consecutive losses), what you are really betting is 99.89% (=1-0.505^10) win chance bets.
So, you are just hoping you will never see a rare event happens (10 consecutive losses in this case).
a few years ago i fucked around with the martingale strategy in sports betting. It started off fine and dandy, made a lot of money over the course of a few months and then quickly shot back to reality over the course of a couple days. I have learned my lesson the hard way. Every so often when i have a lot of break even days i have a little voice in the back of my head telling me "hey if you use martingale you would be making a lot of money and not breaking even." Well fuck that stupid little voice. I learned my lesson and i know now that the voice is just going to break me again.
I've tested martingale in multiple ways. Even going to dice sites and starting off with 1 satoshi, you end up at a Bitcoin+ before the day is over. A lot of people don't consider the real cost when they try to calculate it. You don't just consider the doubled amount. For example, the real cost is (starting with 1 satoshi):
1 1
2 3
3 9
4 27
5 81
6 243
7 729
8 2187
9 6561
10 19683
11 59049
12 177147
13 531441
14 1594323
15 4782969
16 14348907
17 43046721
18 129140163
19 387420489
20 1162261467
So 18 losses = over a Bitcoin already. Only two more after that puts you at an almost 12 BTC loss. And it keeps going up from there. And that's just starting at a single satoshi (1/100,000,000 of a Bitcoin)!
Very confused by this, do you know what martingale is?
1. 1 Sat
2. 1+2= 3 Sats
3. 1+2+4 = 7 Sats
4. 1+2+4+8 = 15 Sats
5. 1+2+4+8+16 = 31 Sats
6. 1+2+4+8+16+32= 63 Sats
From the pattern you can see it is (2^x)-1 to see how much you have lost in a given amount of rolls. 2^20-1 = 1,048,576 or (.01 roughly)
Not sure what kind of betting you are doing though!
Lulz, you're right. This is why you don't throw something up quickly. For some reason I was doing x*2+x (which puts the loss as being what you double up, rather than doubling the previous bet). Essentially it was saying "you lost 3 total now, so you need to double that," instead of "you've lost 3 total and it takes 4 to make a profit, so bet 4."
That was a good catch!
Here's the revised version:
1 1
2 3
3 7
4 15
5 31
6 63
7 127
8 255
9 511
10 1023
11 2047
12 4095
13 8191
14 16383
15 32767
16 65535
17 131071
18 262143
19 524287
20 1048575
21 2097151
22 4194303
23 8388607
24 16777215
23 losses = almost 1 BTC.
a few years ago i fucked around with the martingale strategy in sports betting. It started off fine and dandy, made a lot of money over the course of a few months and then quickly shot back to reality over the course of a couple days. I have learned my lesson the hard way. Every so often when i have a lot of break even days i have a little voice in the back of my head telling me "hey if you use martingale you would be making a lot of money and not breaking even." Well fuck that stupid little voice. I learned my lesson and i know now that the voice is just going to break me again.
I've tested martingale in multiple ways. Even going to dice sites and starting off with 1 satoshi, you end up at a Bitcoin+ before the day is over. A lot of people don't consider the real cost when they try to calculate it. You don't just consider the doubled amount. For example, the real cost is (starting with 1 satoshi):
1 1
2 3
3 9
4 27
5 81
6 243
7 729
8 2187
9 6561
10 19683
11 59049
12 177147
13 531441
14 1594323
15 4782969
16 14348907
17 43046721
18 129140163
19 387420489
20 1162261467
So 18 losses = over a Bitcoin already. Only two more after that puts you at an almost 12 BTC loss. And it keeps going up from there. And that's just starting at a single satoshi (1/100,000,000 of a Bitcoin)!
Very confused by this, do you know what martingale is?
1. 1 Sat
2. 1+2= 3 Sats
3. 1+2+4 = 7 Sats
4. 1+2+4+8 = 15 Sats
5. 1+2+4+8+16 = 31 Sats
6. 1+2+4+8+16+32= 63 Sats
From the pattern you can see it is (2^x)-1 to see how much you have lost in a given amount of rolls. 2^20-1 = 1,048,576 or (.01 roughly)
Not sure what kind of betting you are doing though!
a few years ago i fucked around with the martingale strategy in sports betting. It started off fine and dandy, made a lot of money over the course of a few months and then quickly shot back to reality over the course of a couple days. I have learned my lesson the hard way. Every so often when i have a lot of break even days i have a little voice in the back of my head telling me "hey if you use martingale you would be making a lot of money and not breaking even." Well fuck that stupid little voice. I learned my lesson and i know now that the voice is just going to break me again.
I've tested martingale in multiple ways. Even going to dice sites and starting off with 1 satoshi, you end up at a Bitcoin+ before the day is over. A lot of people don't consider the real cost when they try to calculate it. You don't just consider the doubled amount. For example, the real cost is (starting with 1 satoshi):
1 1
2 3
3 9
4 27
5 81
6 243
7 729
8 2187
9 6561
10 19683
11 59049
12 177147
13 531441
14 1594323
15 4782969
16 14348907
17 43046721
18 129140163
19 387420489
20 1162261467
So 18 losses = over a Bitcoin already. Only two more after that puts you at an almost 12 BTC loss. And it keeps going up from there. And that's just starting at a single satoshi (1/100,000,000 of a Bitcoin)!
a few years ago i fucked around with the martingale strategy in sports betting. It started off fine and dandy, made a lot of money over the course of a few months and then quickly shot back to reality over the course of a couple days. I have learned my lesson the hard way. Every so often when i have a lot of break even days i have a little voice in the back of my head telling me "hey if you use martingale you would be making a lot of money and not breaking even." Well fuck that stupid little voice. I learned my lesson and i know now that the voice is just going to break me again.
that is correct, win odds is the single most important thing in the long run. that is why game creators on my site has the possibility to earn steady long-term income. because they have around 51% win odds.
Im confused by what you are saying here? You say game creators on your site? No betting site would give the playing +EV options. That would just equate to them slowly giving away money to players/
my site is P2P, game creators create dice games, and get an edge in winning, game players play them, and pay 1% fee
visit my site: https://crowddice.com for details
a few years ago i fucked around with the martingale strategy in sports betting. It started off fine and dandy, made a lot of money over the course of a few months and then quickly shot back to reality over the course of a couple days. I have learned my lesson the hard way. Every so often when i have a lot of break even days i have a little voice in the back of my head telling me "hey if you use martingale you would be making a lot of money and not breaking even." Well fuck that stupid little voice. I learned my lesson and i know now that the voice is just going to break me again.
that is correct, win odds is the single most important thing in the long run. that is why game creators on my site has the possibility to earn steady long-term income. because they have around 51% win odds.
Im confused by what you are saying here? You say game creators on your site? No betting site would give the playing +EV options. That would just equate to them slowly giving away money to players/
a few years ago i fucked around with the martingale strategy in sports betting. It started off fine and dandy, made a lot of money over the course of a few months and then quickly shot back to reality over the course of a couple days. I have learned my lesson the hard way. Every so often when i have a lot of break even days i have a little voice in the back of my head telling me "hey if you use martingale you would be making a lot of money and not breaking even." Well fuck that stupid little voice. I learned my lesson and i know now that the voice is just going to break me again.
that is correct, win odds is the single most important thing in the long run. that is why game creators on my site has the possibility to earn steady long-term income. because they have around 51% win odds.
a few years ago i fucked around with the martingale strategy in sports betting. It started off fine and dandy, made a lot of money over the course of a few months and then quickly shot back to reality over the course of a couple days. I have learned my lesson the hard way. Every so often when i have a lot of break even days i have a little voice in the back of my head telling me "hey if you use martingale you would be making a lot of money and not breaking even." Well fuck that stupid little voice. I learned my lesson and i know now that the voice is just going to break me again.
It works 100% as long as you have infinite money and no betting limit. Otherwise, no.
Everyone who has been a part of any gambling site must have tried martingale. so i just wanted to know your experience that have u ever gained profit from martingale? or its name should be changed to martinfail?
Dont use a martingale strategy unless you plan on being broke
This. It can work sometimes, but you could even have a high losing streak in the very beginning. People that think it will work long-term don't know what they're doing.
Also if you are gambling by say playing casino games or these stupid ass dice or flip a coin games dont go into it thinking you are going to make a lot of money. Go into it knowing you are going to lose and if in the odd chance you do come out ahead good for you. But the more times you go back the more likely you will lose.
Everyone who has been a part of any gambling site must have tried martingale. so i just wanted to know your experience that have u ever gained profit from martingale? or its name should be changed to martinfail?
Dont use a martingale strategy unless you plan on being broke
It does not work in practices if:
-You have infinite funds.
The martingale rely on the exponential function 2^x.
And x will not need to be very high before you are out of funds.
Each "coin flip" has no memory of the previous roll, it is surprising how likely it is to flip the same face e.g. 16 times.
If that happens, then would an inital loss of $1 take $65536 dollar to recover, which few people is prepared to gamble anyway, and if they where, then would they most likely not start out with a $1 bet.
-You have infinite funds.
The martingale rely on the exponential function 2^x.
And x will not need to be very high before you are out of funds.
Each "coin flip" has no memory of the previous roll, it is surprising how likely it is to flip the same face e.g. 16 times.
If that happens, then would an inital loss of $1 take $65536 dollar to recover, which few people is prepared to gamble anyway, and if they where, then would they most likely not start out with a $1 bet.
martingale killed me a lot of times so sometimes isnt recommended
Everyone who has been a part of any gambling site must have tried martingale. so i just wanted to know your experience that have u ever gained profit from martingale? or its name should be changed to martinfail?
Yes it is probably the best method you can use, but just like any other method, if you play tons of hands/rolls, expect to lose everything.
I usually set a goal of gaining like .01BTC per day maybe try for like 10 wins or something, 10 wins before you lose say 10 in a row...usually have great odds in that.
Of course it doesn't otherwise every casino in the world would be bankrupt. Those good at math (i.e. casino operators) love martingale players especially those with large amounts of disposable (losable) income. Often they will fly them in, comp their stay, buy them gifts, anything to keep them happy and playing. Sometimes they win, sometimes they lose but in the long run the house advantage is insurmountable.
I would say martainfail for the most part. Ive had some good sessions where i have made some profit and i think the key is to stop when your ahead. It only takes one terrible streak to lose everything which is pretty inevitable. I still use that mainly when dicing and playing roulette but it certainly isnt foolproof. Thats my 2 cents.
Everyone who has been a part of any gambling site must have tried martingale. so i just wanted to know your experience that have u ever gained profit from martingale? or its name should be changed to martinfail?
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