Does martingale really works? - page 99.

dooglus

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Quote from: ranlo on May 15, 2014, 03:02:15 PM

Lulz, you're right. This is why you don't throw something up quickly.

Here's the revised version:

1   1
2   3
3   7
[...]
22   4194303
23   8388607
24   16777215

23 losses = almost 1 BTC.

Still not right, sorry.

23 losses = 0.08388607 BTC - not even a tenth of 1 BTC.

Cryptopher

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Keep it dense, yeah?

Quote from: dooglus on May 30, 2014, 03:23:35 PM

Quote from: f3tus on May 29, 2014, 11:25:04 AM

Quote from: yakuza699 on May 29, 2014, 08:18:06 AM

1. 1
2. 2
3. 4
[...]
26. 33554432
27. 67108864
28. 134217728

28 losses in a row with 49.5% odds is so rare that I am willing to bet it hasn't occurred a single time in the entire history of satoshidice and other gambling sites.

Maybe you're right, but I doubt it. I've never seen more than 27 in a row, but with over a billion bets at Just-Dice I would be surprised if there wasn't at least a 28 streak at one point. 2^20 is about a million, 2^8 is 128, so it would take about 128 million bets on average to see a 28 loss streak at 50%. And quite a few less at 49.5%.

People keep asking me "what's the longest streak on JD?". I didn't look. It will be a pain in the ass to go through the data and work it out. But if you want to make a little wager on the existence of a 28 loss streak at 49.5%, that would make it worth my time.

So how about it? Promise I won't cheat and look it up ahead of time.

Here's the 27 streak:

https://i.imgur.com/S5zjWv8.png - photo of most of it
https://i.imgur.com/AeIqshZ.png - screenshot of all of it

27 losing streak, god dammit I would be reeling with anger and on the verge of insanity.

I would love to see the longest winning streak, they don't seem to be nearly as long or nearly as common.

dooglus

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Quote from: f3tus on May 29, 2014, 11:25:04 AM

Quote from: yakuza699 on May 29, 2014, 08:18:06 AM

1. 1
2. 2
3. 4
[...]
26. 33554432
27. 67108864
28. 134217728

28 losses in a row with 49.5% odds is so rare that I am willing to bet it hasn't occurred a single time in the entire history of satoshidice and other gambling sites.

Maybe you're right, but I doubt it. I've never seen more than 27 in a row, but with over a billion bets at Just-Dice I would be surprised if there wasn't at least a 28 streak at one point. 2^20 is about a million, 2^8 is 128, so it would take about 128 million bets on average to see a 28 loss streak at 50%. And quite a few less at 49.5%.

People keep asking me "what's the longest streak on JD?". I didn't look. It will be a pain in the ass to go through the data and work it out. But if you want to make a little wager on the existence of a 28 loss streak at 49.5%, that would make it worth my time.

So how about it? Promise I won't cheat and look it up ahead of time.

Here's the 27 streak:

https://i.imgur.com/S5zjWv8.png - photo of most of it
https://i.imgur.com/AeIqshZ.png - screenshot of all of it

f3tus

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Quote from: boumalo on May 30, 2014, 01:34:52 PM

When you bet at a martingale it is the same as risking everything you plan on betting to win so if you have 31BTC and starts at 1BTC you risk 31BTC to win 1 and you repeat that until you will lose your 31BTC or quit a winner but if you quit a winner you will come back and play... Wink

A person would have to be retarded to have 31 BTC and play a Martingale with 1 BTC initial wager.

boumalo

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When you bet at a martingale it is the same as risking everything you plan on betting to win so if you have 31BTC and starts at 1BTC you risk 31BTC to win 1 and you repeat that until you will lose your 31BTC or quit a winner but if you quit a winner you will come back and play... Wink

Cryptopher

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Keep it dense, yeah?

Quote from: leex1528 on May 30, 2014, 01:16:14 PM

Quote from: Cryptopher on May 30, 2014, 01:14:40 PM

Quote from: leex1528 on May 30, 2014, 01:09:22 PM

Quote from: Cryptopher on May 30, 2014, 01:00:38 PM

It's true what they say that Martingale will eventually incur you a catastrophic loss.

Which brings you to the most important lesson you can gamble with, DO NOT GAMBLE WITH WHAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE

All gambling leads to catastrophic loss:)

Haha, buying a Lotto ticket for £2 is not a catastrophic loss Wink

But I understand the message that you are sending. It's true, I think that it's easy to be blinded by the wins and the whole "surely you can't lose THAT many times in a row".

I've had some rotten luck in dice games, but I've only ever played with funds I've earned.

Well I should elaborate then, say you buy a £2 100,000 times. Much like losing at martingale, you would have to bet a lot of times or catch really bad luck to lose that many hands in a row, but after each bet your odds get worse and worse until finally you will bust!

The majority of my bad luck in dice games has occurred outside of Martingale. More like losing when you have a 98% chance of winning after three rolls. That was harsh, possible of course but bloody annoying considering how seemingly improbable the reverse wager is :/

leex1528

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Quote from: Cryptopher on May 30, 2014, 01:14:40 PM

Quote from: leex1528 on May 30, 2014, 01:09:22 PM

Quote from: Cryptopher on May 30, 2014, 01:00:38 PM

It's true what they say that Martingale will eventually incur you a catastrophic loss.

Which brings you to the most important lesson you can gamble with, DO NOT GAMBLE WITH WHAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE

All gambling leads to catastrophic loss:)

Haha, buying a Lotto ticket for £2 is not a catastrophic loss Wink

But I understand the message that you are sending. It's true, I think that it's easy to be blinded by the wins and the whole "surely you can't lose THAT many times in a row".

I've had some rotten luck in dice games, but I've only ever played with funds I've earned.

Well I should elaborate then, say you buy a £2 100,000 times. Much like losing at martingale, you would have to bet a lot of times or catch really bad luck to lose that many hands in a row, but after each bet your odds get worse and worse until finally you will bust!

Cryptopher

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Keep it dense, yeah?

Quote from: leex1528 on May 30, 2014, 01:09:22 PM

Quote from: Cryptopher on May 30, 2014, 01:00:38 PM

It's true what they say that Martingale will eventually incur you a catastrophic loss.

Which brings you to the most important lesson you can gamble with, DO NOT GAMBLE WITH WHAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE

All gambling leads to catastrophic loss:)

Haha, buying a Lotto ticket for £2 is not a catastrophic loss Wink

But I understand the message that you are sending. It's true, I think that it's easy to be blinded by the wins and the whole "surely you can't lose THAT many times in a row".

I've had some rotten luck in dice games, but I've only ever played with funds I've earned.

leex1528

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Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Cryptopher on May 30, 2014, 01:00:38 PM

It's true what they say that Martingale will eventually incur you a catastrophic loss.

Which brings you to the most important lesson you can gamble with, DO NOT GAMBLE WITH WHAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE

All gambling leads to catastrophic loss:)

Cryptopher

legendary

Activity: 1789

Merit: 1008

Keep it dense, yeah?

Quote from: leex1528 on May 30, 2014, 09:28:41 AM

Quote from: ondratra on May 30, 2014, 08:42:45 AM

Quote from: FanEagle on May 29, 2014, 08:28:00 PM

Every System has a flaw,and in that second you Will find youself bankrupted.

Read my post 3 posts above yours Wink

Their is no flaw in Martingle - you just doesn't undestand what it is meant to do. (and owners of casino like very much to confuse newbies

)

When casino has house edge (should have always) their is higher chance that you will lose everything than doubling your initial money - supposing you don't cheat.

This. People who fail at Martingale have no idea how to use it. Yes, you are not going to double your money, if you want the best odds of doubling your money. Bet it all on 1 hand and hope for the best. All these people who claim they can gamble good on dice are just beyond amusing. You are going to tell me your good at luck?? Martingale is the way to go, just walk away after a few wins is what people have problems with.

This is true. There are a number of ways of spreading risk to your bank roll, and each come with their compromise to the amount you can win. I've found in the past that I have expected too much from Martingale, and lost out as a result.

It's true what they say that Martingale will eventually incur you a catastrophic loss.

f3tus

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Quote from: leex1528 on May 30, 2014, 09:28:41 AM

Martingale is the way to go, just walk away after a few wins is what people have problems with.

Indeed, it's psychological. You've got some profit, but think you could get more by wagering more, hoping luck will be on your side. It might be, but most likely it won't and you go bust.

leex1528

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Quote from: ondratra on May 30, 2014, 08:42:45 AM

Quote from: FanEagle on May 29, 2014, 08:28:00 PM

Every System has a flaw,and in that second you Will find youself bankrupted.

Read my post 3 posts above yours Wink

Their is no flaw in Martingle - you just doesn't undestand what it is meant to do. (and owners of casino like very much to confuse newbies

)

When casino has house edge (should have always) their is higher chance that you will lose everything than doubling your initial money - supposing you don't cheat.

This. People who fail at Martingale have no idea how to use it. Yes, you are not going to double your money, if you want the best odds of doubling your money. Bet it all on 1 hand and hope for the best. All these people who claim they can gamble good on dice are just beyond amusing. You are going to tell me your good at luck?? Martingale is the way to go, just walk away after a few wins is what people have problems with.

ondratra

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Quote from: FanEagle on May 29, 2014, 08:28:00 PM

Every System has a flaw,and in that second you Will find youself bankrupted.

Read my post 3 posts above yours Wink

Their is no flaw in Martingle - you just doesn't undestand what it is meant to do. (and owners of casino like very much to confuse newbies

)

When casino has house edge (should have always) their is higher chance that you will lose everything than doubling your initial money - supposing you don't cheat.

W-M

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Merit: 100

In Crypto we Trust.

The only 'betting system' that works and will actually be able to make you a little money in the long run, is Card Counting in Blackjack.

coincolonel

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It does increases your success / winning rate. But once you lose, it will be devastating Tongue

FanEagle

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VPN Friendly & Exclusive Bonuses!

Every System has a flaw,and in that second you Will find youself bankrupted.

Cryptopher

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Keep it dense, yeah?

Quote from: ?? on ??

Look at any sites high roller page and you'll see they all busted when they tried the martingale.

Totally agree, I've seen the catastrophic losses that unfortunate users of the Martingale have incurred, of course it is a little trickier to spot their successes though.

I know a few people that have had some success with Martingale, but they've turned a little greedy then ended up losing some of their winnings. Usually the way.

ondratra

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Another example come to my mind:

Let's imagine we have some epic betting strategy for dice game - every round there is generated random number between 1 and 10000. If number under 5000 is generated we have won round.

We have XY cash that is enough for YZ bets.

Now imagine the worst scenario: we come to casino and start betting, but YZ times in row we loss Sad

What can we do against it? Nothing (don't bet).

Yes YZ bad rounds in row are inprobable, but in long run it WILL appear now matter what you do - and you can't tell if it will happen after 100hours of betting or since time you come to casino.

ondratra

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Quote from: hensi on May 15, 2014, 01:08:09 PM

Everyone who has been a part of any gambling site must have tried martingale. so i just wanted to know your experience that have u ever gained profit from martingale? or its name should be changed to martinfail?

It works 100% Wink

unfortunatelly you except from it something it can't do.

Every betting system for independent events (like throwing dice or flipping coin) doesn't ensure you profit - if it would be so, why would still exist non bancrupt casinos? (simple logic)
It just changes characteristics of propability distribution.

Aka: you can use betting system to get probability 1% in long run while betting (always) on 50% chance (like head/tails) or any change like this. Nothing more, nothing less.

I hope it helps you. Play only for fun - not for profit - or you will lose all Wink

f3tus

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Quote from: yakuza699 on May 29, 2014, 12:36:03 PM

Why would he need to lie about it if people like ranlo lose 7 time in a row with 98.9% odds i believe with no doubts that he lost 45 times on 49.5% odds.

Losing 45 times in a row and starting a bet with 1 satoshi would mean the idiot had 35,184 BTC in his account, and decided to play a Martingale with 1 satoshi!

LOL, think with your head.

Edit: wrong math.

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