Does martingale really works? - page 103.

ranlo

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Activity: 1988

Merit: 1007

Quote from: Benjig on May 24, 2014, 01:02:18 AM

Quote from: ranlo on May 23, 2014, 07:18:43 PM

Quote from: soccosocco on May 23, 2014, 08:06:16 AM

Works if you have 1 BTC and bet 1 satohshi

This is absolutely incorrect, as seen here:

1 1
2 3
3 7
4 15
5 31
6 63
7 127
8 255
9 511
10 1023
11 2047
12 4095
13 8191
14 16383
15 32767
16 65535
17 131071
18 262143
19 524287
20 1048575
21 2097151
22 4194303
23 8388607
24 16777215

23 losses = almost 1 BTC.

*****

At some point you're going to hit that cap, and statistically it will be long before you've doubled up your money.

And i have seen worst systems, i saw once a guy doing a 10x martingale, this means, betting first 1 satoshi at 90% if he lose then 10 satoshis, then 100 satoshis etc, of course he lost 0.5 btc in seconds.

I've run it all the way down to playing at 98% odds. It never works because the house always wins.

Benjig

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: ranlo on May 23, 2014, 07:18:43 PM

Quote from: soccosocco on May 23, 2014, 08:06:16 AM

Works if you have 1 BTC and bet 1 satohshi

This is absolutely incorrect, as seen here:

1 1
2 3
3 7
4 15
5 31
6 63
7 127
8 255
9 511
10 1023
11 2047
12 4095
13 8191
14 16383
15 32767
16 65535
17 131071
18 262143
19 524287
20 1048575
21 2097151
22 4194303
23 8388607
24 16777215

23 losses = almost 1 BTC.

*****

At some point you're going to hit that cap, and statistically it will be long before you've doubled up your money.

And i have seen worst systems, i saw once a guy doing a 10x martingale, this means, betting first 1 satoshi at 90% if he lose then 10 satoshis, then 100 satoshis etc, of course he lost 0.5 btc in seconds.

ranlo

legendary

Activity: 1988

Merit: 1007

Quote from: soccosocco on May 23, 2014, 08:06:16 AM

Works if you have 1 BTC and bet 1 satohshi

This is absolutely incorrect, as seen here:

1 1
2 3
3 7
4 15
5 31
6 63
7 127
8 255
9 511
10 1023
11 2047
12 4095
13 8191
14 16383
15 32767
16 65535
17 131071
18 262143
19 524287
20 1048575
21 2097151
22 4194303
23 8388607
24 16777215

23 losses = almost 1 BTC.

*****

At some point you're going to hit that cap, and statistically it will be long before you've doubled up your money.

soccosocco

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Works if you have 1 BTC and bet 1 satohshi

ranlo

legendary

Activity: 1988

Merit: 1007

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on May 17, 2014, 05:23:10 PM

Quote from: Zuminest on May 16, 2014, 08:43:01 PM

As everyone else has mentioned, Martingale doesn't work infinitely. Stop as soon as you get a small amount ahead.

There is no guarantee you will get a "small amount" ahead. There is no guarantee you will ever be ahead at all.

This is so true. I lost a few coins on a site with 1% edge starting at like 0.0001. My first "run" it was nothing but fails and I lost it all before I even got a small bit ahead.

DeathAndTaxes

donator

Activity: 1218

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Gerald Davis

Quote from: Zuminest on May 16, 2014, 08:43:01 PM

As everyone else has mentioned, Martingale doesn't work infinitely. Stop as soon as you get a small amount ahead.

There is no guarantee you will get a "small amount" ahead. There is no guarantee you will ever be ahead at all.

littlebox

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote from: gcseybolt on May 16, 2014, 10:05:34 PM

Essentially it comes down to the fact that you no matter what strategy you use the odds don't change as far as house edge goes, the only difference between martingale and other methods is that with martingale you're never down. Either you're ahead or you're bust, so it makes it feel safer, until the moment that you lose everything.

so the best way is have an edge, even a very small one

gcseybolt

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

Essentially it comes down to the fact that you no matter what strategy you use the odds don't change as far as house edge goes, the only difference between martingale and other methods is that with martingale you're never down. Either you're ahead or you're bust, so it makes it feel safer, until the moment that you lose everything.

Zuminest

full member

Activity: 169

Merit: 100

As everyone else has mentioned, Martingale doesn't work infinitely. Stop as soon as you get a small amount ahead.

Light

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 502

Circa 2010

Quote from: gongomanny on May 16, 2014, 09:22:35 AM

It is possible to loose infinite times, never discard any possibility. I like to use: with infinite money and infinite time you can play martingale forever, but at any random point in time you are more likely to be loosing than winning (with casino edge)

Let's just assume you have infinite time and money. Your problem is still the fact that the house has a limit so hence you cannot actually bet an infinite amount as your capped. Basically, it's probably one of the worst long term betting choices - you will eventually bust it's really only a matter of time whereas you may take a small loss with flat betting instead.

f3tus

sr. member

Activity: 317

Merit: 275

The trick is to do very small bets, so the chances of you losing all your BTC is if you get 14-15 losses in a row.

If you have 0.1 BTC, do 0.000005 or 0.000003 bets. This takes about an hour to get 0.001.

Or, start with 0.00002 to speed things up, but it'll take 12 losses to lose it all, or 11 with 0.0004.

The problem is that it gets very boring because of the slow pace, so people (myself included), bet more here and there because they "feel lucky." I usually bet more after I had 9-10 losses in a row and finally won again. What are the chances of another 10+ losses in a row, right? If you have 0.1 BTC, DON'T ever start betting with more than 0.0004, unless you "feel lucky," but you'll eventually run out of luck.

I doubled my initial deposit with Martingale multiple times, but then lost it all because I was "feeling lucky." The evil of gambling. Know when to quit.

It would be great if there was a script that did this slow betting for you, which takes a couple of hours, and then stopped once you've doubled (or 50%, whatever) your initial stake (or in rare cases, lost everything, or are 1 bet away from potentially losing everything).

Edit: looks like I've found one: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/seuntjies-dicebot-multi-site-multi-strategy-betting-bot-for-dice-with-charts-307425

deadley

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I have tried martingale in 3-4 sites, its look work in begining but in longer term you will loose. so better dont use martingale very risky strategy.

krishatnet

hero member

Activity: 546

Merit: 500

I have tried martingale strategy but finally lost my bitcoins.

leex1528

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Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Jcw188 on May 16, 2014, 09:28:31 AM

Martinfail bro. Hey if it's your first time, sure try it with money you can afford to lose, but then don't become dependent on it. I have had losses of like 15, 16, 18, in a row on a 50/50 roll, so if it happens you're screwed, and it will happen eventually, especially if you use the auto roll. GL

I agree it will fail. Every method fails, there is a house edge, that is why casinos make money.

It still is the BEST method you can use to make money in the short term. Yes everyone has had long losing streaks, but with a provably fair system and assuming you don't get rotten luck you will probably make money the first couple times you do this...

Jcw188

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Activity: 546

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Carpe Diem

Martinfail bro. Hey if it's your first time, sure try it with money you can afford to lose, but then don't become dependent on it. I have had losses of like 15, 16, 18, in a row on a 50/50 roll, so if it happens you're screwed, and it will happen eventually, especially if you use the auto roll. GL

leex1528

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Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Quote from: gongomanny on May 16, 2014, 09:22:35 AM

Quote from: Malin Keshar on May 16, 2014, 08:27:42 AM

with infinite money(not much money), no matter how much you lose, you'll always have more money. I think it is mathematically impossible lose infinite times( not billions or trillions of times, but infinite). It is more like a mathematical concept

It is possible to loose infinite times, never discard any possibility. I like to use: with infinite money and infinite time you can play martingale forever, but at any random point in time you are more likely to be loosing than winning (with casino edge)

It is impossible to lose infinite times, or win infinite times...or anything...That is pretty much the definition of infinity.

Playing martingale you are more likely to be in 2 scenarios, none of what you listed.
1. You are either going to be up
2. You have lost all your money

gongomanny

sr. member

Activity: 301

Merit: 250

Ɓιтcσιη

Quote from: Malin Keshar on May 16, 2014, 08:27:42 AM

with infinite money(not much money), no matter how much you lose, you'll always have more money. I think it is mathematically impossible lose infinite times( not billions or trillions of times, but infinite). It is more like a mathematical concept

It is possible to loose infinite times, never discard any possibility. I like to use: with infinite money and infinite time you can play martingale forever, but at any random point in time you are more likely to be loosing than winning (with casino edge)

coinnewbit

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Martingale for me is more of a hit and run than anything else.

leex1528

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Quote from: hensi on May 16, 2014, 08:55:58 AM

Quote from: wayneyoyo on May 16, 2014, 08:45:07 AM

I have use to martingale 3x on Primedice and Just dice , have made 1 btc to 12 before it just all about luck mostly .

Like other say unless you have infinity Bitcoin .

And i just lost 0.1 on pd using martingale!!!! So the final verdict is that there is nothing like martingale, its just martinfail Sad

Yep, 1 person lost and we have no idea how he was betting, it must be a fail method!!!!

hensi

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TheSlimShady

Quote from: wayneyoyo on May 16, 2014, 08:45:07 AM

I have use to martingale 3x on Primedice and Just dice , have made 1 btc to 12 before it just all about luck mostly .

Like other say unless you have infinity Bitcoin .

And i just lost 0.1 on pd using martingale!!!! So the final verdict is that there is nothing like martingale, its just martinfail Sad

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