Does Martingale Work? - page 7. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Ipwich

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Quote from: perla on February 21, 2019, 10:09:03 PM

If people ask does martingale work? Of course it works. But if the question is martingal give profit constantly? i will answer big no.

I don't understand, your statement is contradicting, if it works that means it's profitable.
We only need to know if it's profitable or not and there's no reason to discuss this method if this would not give us a profit based on expectation.

perla

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If people ask does martingale work? Of course it works. But if the question is martingal give profit constantly? i will answer big no. Because like people said about unlimited capital, you wouldn't know when bet site took all your money in 1 click.

StarofBTC

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Quote from: shield132 on February 21, 2019, 04:57:44 PM

Btw new mydicebot has option of doing such tests.

This sounds interesting. What is your experience with dicebots ? Are you into profits or at least recovered some money you have spent for this bot (I assume it is not a free one). I just googled and finding many results regarding this dicebot but what I actually looking for this, more real gambler's review. Because that alone will help me to gamble better. If your time permits, kindly share your experience with mydicebot.

shield132

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When people were creating casino and offering games, it wasn't done blindly. There are a lot of mathematical things done to determine profit, maximeze casino's chance of win and decrease your. That's why casino always wins, you can't see any casino has gone bankrupt, not only casino, even sportsbook.
Btw new mydicebot has option of doing such tests.

beerlover

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Quote from: prtty2gal2 on February 21, 2019, 12:59:25 PM

How a mathematical thing will be also influenced by our luck factor ? I mean what will be the relation between a mathematical thing and and our emotional thing ? Only martingale strategy will be influenced by our luck factor or all other strategies also ? I am asking this because I want to know only this strategy will not work for gambling or all other strategies also will not work for our gambling ?

In my opinion, when a strategy is a mathematical thing then it should not be influenced by our luck factor. Even it will be influenced by luck than it should not be a strategy it is just another way of gambling and nothing else.

Probably he meant that martingale strategy is employed by gamblers against the random number generation of gambling houses. It means if you're lucky enough then you will get your favorable numbers in house's random number generation. Due to this reason we are facing continuous losing streaks when we are using martingale strategy.

I agree with you that martingale strategy is providing gamblers a method to gamble against the gambling house. In this method, we need to compete against random number generations. In this part we must need luck so that we will not have long continuous losing streaks. Regarding in this part, martingale strategy has nothing to do.

cryptovigi

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on February 21, 2019, 01:33:05 PM

....
Sure ill code it but i need further informations. This program perform thousands of tests. Every one is similar to 1 gambler entering casino. You want my program to count combos in single test or sum in whole simulation (10 000 - 100 000 tests) or average? You want to test it in first strategy (play until death - if so what limit?) or in second (play until double or death).

I was wodnering what is probability distribution to draw one color repeated many times in a row in a given sample....

I thought that knowing this schedule I will be able to choose a system that will increase the probability of winning - for example, start after drawing black three (or maybe four or five) times in a row and then betting a few times red

I used excel spreadsheet to simulate one million draws and saw that shedule is quite simple

focusing on red i got such drowns
red one time in row: 125.265
red two times in row: 63.066
red three times in row: 31.047
red four times in row: 15.562
red five times in row: 7.820
red six times in row: 3.870
red seven times in row: 1.915
red eight times in row: 920
red nine times in row: 481
...
red nineteen times in row: 1

so in any case, drawing a given color once again is close to 50/50 that means that my theory sucks - starting to bet when one color was already drawn severeal times rather won't rather increase the chances of winning

but you could still perform some simulation just to make sure if it has any influence on results....

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: cryptovigi on February 21, 2019, 09:31:45 AM

One idea came to my mind...

OP could you modify your application to check how many times in row roulette should give "red"

I'd like to see something like:

"roulette gave
1 red in row 35.752 times
2 red in row 12.258 times
3 red in row 4.659 times
4 red in row 3.215 times
...
15 red in row 24 times
16 red in row 5 times"

could you check it? Thanks in advance....

Sure ill code it but i need further informations. This program perform thousands of tests. Every one is similar to 1 gambler entering casino. You want my program to count combos in single test or sum in whole simulation (10 000 - 100 000 tests) or average? You want to test it in first strategy (play until death - if so what limit?) or in second (play until double or death).

prtty2gal2

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Quote from: wuvdoll on February 21, 2019, 11:15:26 AM

Martingale strategy must work everywhere but it is also influenced by our luck factor because we cannot claim that there will be no chances for having continuous negative things to happen for us in real life too. It may happen or may not happen and no one could tell anything about that.

How a mathematical thing will be also influenced by our luck factor ? I mean what will be the relation between a mathematical thing and and our emotional thing ? Only martingale strategy will be influenced by our luck factor or all other strategies also ? I am asking this because I want to know only this strategy will not work for gambling or all other strategies also will not work for our gambling ?

In my opinion, when a strategy is a mathematical thing then it should not be influenced by our luck factor. Even it will be influenced by luck than it should not be a strategy it is just another way of gambling and nothing else.

gabmen

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Quote from: nydiacaskey01 on February 21, 2019, 10:21:00 AM

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on February 20, 2019, 06:40:29 AM

Loss again. Even worst - 27% chances to double. That's because with higher limit you have to earn more to double. This simulation shows that Martingale simply don't work and is worse than betting everything on red and going home. Gambling should be considered as fun with luck. Every strategy would destroy you and your brain. Go, bet earn/loos have fun but don't thing that with special strategy you have chance to win repetitively and earn for living. Well you can but due to luck ... net math and strategy.

I agree! Gambling is a game of chance not a game of strategy. Even if you say you play a poker game which is also a game where you need to have skills in bluffing and reading your opponents body language, still if your opponent gets a better card than yours then no strategy or skill can beat that.

I disagree. You may have a better card in poker but that doesn't autimatically amount to a win. Experienced poker players can beat you even with superior cards. And for martingale, it's a short term strategy. It may not have worked for you but people have utilized that strategy to make a lot of money. A good strategy can always bail you out if you're out of luck.

wuvdoll

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Quote from: Indrawan77 on February 21, 2019, 09:35:34 AM

Martingale technique has been proved that it cannot make the gambler win in long term, its because the capital we got is limited, the house edge and the losing chance is bigger if we play for the long time, but if you play safe and know when to stop then you can make profit with martingale, but it won't work every time, set your stop limit will make you got better strategy to make profit

Regardless of short-term or long-term, a mathematical formula must work in similar manner. If it is not, something at somewhere is missing out or getting manipulated against us. I'm just talking about the general truth of how a mathematical thing must work. Still we must agree, no one could predict our luck factor how will it behave both in long term as well as in short term.

Martingale strategy must work everywhere but it is also influenced by our luck factor because we cannot claim that there will be no chances for having continuous negative things to happen for us in real life too. It may happen or may not happen and no one could tell anything about that.

reflector

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In and of the fact that there is dependably max wagered permitted in all betting site. Boundless parity will be futile once you achieve the maximum permitted wager, as you cannot wager higher to recuperate the losing streak. Martingale or any form of gambling the procedure, it works when you are fortunate as it were. Each procedure in betting requires probably some measure of fortunes because of the house edge being in play and sheer fortunes being against you, particularly ones like Martingale, which are numerically demonstrated to create a total deficit after some time.

nydiacaskey01

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on February 20, 2019, 06:40:29 AM

Loss again. Even worst - 27% chances to double. That's because with higher limit you have to earn more to double. This simulation shows that Martingale simply don't work and is worse than betting everything on red and going home. Gambling should be considered as fun with luck. Every strategy would destroy you and your brain. Go, bet earn/loos have fun but don't thing that with special strategy you have chance to win repetitively and earn for living. Well you can but due to luck ... net math and strategy.

I agree! Gambling is a game of chance not a game of strategy. Even if you say you play a poker game which is also a game where you need to have skills in bluffing and reading your opponents body language, still if your opponent gets a better card than yours then no strategy or skill can beat that.

Indrawan77

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Martingale technique has been proved that it cannot make the gambler win in long term, its because the capital we got is limited, the house edge and the losing chance is bigger if we play for the long time, but if you play safe and know when to stop then you can make profit with martingale, but it won't work every time, set your stop limit will make you got better strategy to make profit

cryptovigi

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One idea came to my mind...

OP could you modify your application to check how many times in row roulette should give "red"

I'd like to see something like:

"roulette gave
1 red in row 35.752 times
2 red in row 12.258 times
3 red in row 4.659 times
4 red in row 3.215 times
...
15 red in row 24 times
16 red in row 5 times"

could you check it? Thanks in advance....

Oceat

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Quote from: vennali on February 20, 2019, 07:18:50 AM

The only way Martingale works is when you have unlimited amount of money. Otherwise, the house edge always wins. It works well for the first few times though. You could get away with profits but if you keep doing it, you are bound to go down with nothing.

Nah, i don't believe this because if there is a house you were the one that is going to lose after all. Not if you are so lucky to win, thus betting is by chance of luck though there are some games that don't require luck but only with skills. I guess skills may be a good match of martingale to ensure your winnings.

arco-yabamba

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Quote from: Johnyz on February 21, 2019, 08:53:53 AM

Quote from: arco-yabamba on February 21, 2019, 04:32:43 AM

n ono n on no n ono no no no n ono n no no no no no n on n on no no no no no no nonon on no

Lol. This is too much but yeah its convincing.
I also disagree that Martingale works because i lose money before because I tried to do this and then after that, I don’t used any strategies. Maybe in gambling, some strategies will work fine on your first try but it will not last since the house will always win.

You're right, it was too much lol. But there is no other answer.

Of course, for new people to the question... it can always be interesting to explore in theory. But we need to be very clear - martingale is not a good real-life idea.

Johnyz

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Quote from: arco-yabamba on February 21, 2019, 04:32:43 AM

n ono n on no n ono no no no n ono n no no no no no n on n on no no no no no no nonon on no

Lol. This is too much but yeah its convincing.
I also disagree that Martingale works because i lose money before because I tried to do this and then after that, I don’t used any strategies. Maybe in gambling, some strategies will work fine on your first try but it will not last since the house will always win.

Fredomago

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Quote from: cryptovigi on February 21, 2019, 03:54:53 AM

Quote from: emberbekas on February 21, 2019, 03:35:30 AM

...
Every betting strategy, if we use it repeatedly, will definitely give us bad results. In gambling, there are times when we are lucky and vice versa.
...

Otherwords... there are no good betting strategy at all... it's always all about the luck...
not too good, but maybe that's why we call it gambling?

Completely right, that's all about luck and nothing else behind that, this kinds of shares are just a basis and nothing really make
it better unless you are a lucky gambler that be able to quit while some profits still inside your bankroll.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: cryptovigi on February 20, 2019, 08:56:25 PM

i'm wonder how the change from doubling to tripling previous bet would change your test...

Code:

Limit:
1000000
How manny tests
100000
When you want to quit?
2000000
Casino lost with 43645 gamblers out of 100000. Each of them took home 2000000$

It worked well. 43% probability of doubling - 27% in original strategy. Well if by increasing multiplier we increase probability than it would be wise to check what's with x5.

Code:

...
Casino lost with 41757 gamblers out of 100000. Each of them took home 2000000$

x10

Code:

...
Casino lost with 40811 gamblers out of 100000. Each of them took home 2000000$

and x100

Code:

...
Casino lost with 40476 gamblers out of 100000. Each of them took home 2000000$

It looks like x2 is extremely unprofitable. Increasing multiplier instantly boost performance until we reach 3. Further increasing is not changing probability significantly. From my observations of different strategies results that every strategy that makes us spend more time in casino in fact lowers our probability to double. It seems that putting all portfolio on red gives 48% probability of doubling and that's optimal strategy.
Changing multiplier worked because we actually spend much much less time in Casio (quicker bankruptcy or double).

Code:

Limit:
1000000
How manny tests
10000
average rolls 14334.34 average out 895105.78
average loss -104894 in 29.86 days (one bet per minute, 8h daily), which is -439.06 per hour
richest: 163621691 after 3 years

x3 let us spend in casino 29,8 days on average in compare with 2580 days with x2. Thats close to 100 times less with 50% multiplier increase.

arco-yabamba

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n ono n on no n ono no no no n ono n no no no no no n on n on no no no no no no nonon on no

Topic: Does Martingale Work? - page 7. (Read 1352 times)