DNR and LNR military officials have been warning of the possibility of Kiev renewing its offensive on the republics as soon as the weather turns warm enough. Poroshenko can’t afford not to restart Donbass war amid worsening of the economic and social situation and in order to distract Ukrainians’ from political crisis, per analysts’ opinion.
DNR and LNR are warning that Kiev amassed 90,000 troops on the border and that attack is coming soon.
I agree that Poroshenko and a some others in Kiev are itching to re-start a war. But as I had told you all before, I don’t believe Poroshenko has the guts to authorize an offensive. First, he gets huge pressure from EU to stay within Minsk framework; EU won’t like it if he broke peace agreement that blatantly. EU/Merkel/Hollande , in turn, get pressure from Russia to pressure Poroshenko. Obama administration/Democrats also get pressure from Merkel and Russia. But besides that they have lots on internal pressure due to the upcoming elections. One wrong move and any hope for Hillary is gone. And Poroshenko/Kiev are bound to make lots of wrong moves.
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If Kiev can’t attacks directly, what can Ukraine do? Instead, they are attempting to provoke DNR and LNR. To accomplish that they continuously shell peaceful citizens and villages near frontline. The idea is to anger the republics so much that they lose their cool and begin retaliating, thus breaking Minsk 2 agreement. After that Kiev, US and EU get to blame DNR/LNR and, of course, Russia in violating cease-fire. If that should happen, Kiev and US will immediately demand new sanctions against Russia and attempt to vilify Russia and Putin yet again.
This is why DNR/LNR can’t respond to obvious provocations. The especial cruelty of the situation is in the fact that innocent people and animals suffer under shellings, with no recourse. All villagers normally keep a lot of animals, who are also forced to suffer under bombings. Those who left to escape the horrors of war were forced to leave their animals behind!
When will these poor people and innocent animals get justice? Why is the so-called ‘civilized’ world blind and deaf? Where are US/UK/Canada/Australia and EU when obvious violations of human rights are perpetuated by Kiev, Poroshenko, nationalists and ukro-nazis in power? How do they justify their continued political, financial and ideological support of war criminals in Kiev and Ukraine army, while the international tribunal is what they truly deserve?
This is the latest from Donbass, near frontlines…
Citizens of Zaitsevo village, located near frontline, are among many on DNR/LNR side who complain that as soon as OSCE monitoring mission moves to Ukraine side, Kiev army renews the shelling. In other words, Kiev military is quiet, seemingly observing the cease-fire while OSCE mission is on DNR or LNR side. Then, monitors call Ukrainian command to advise that they are leaving DNR/LNR controlled territory to inspect the other side. As soon as their cars leave, Ukraine army and ukro-nazis begin shelling residential areas, schools, churches and hospitals with renewed vigor.
Villagers all around DNR and LNR have been complaining about this devious scheme since the beginning of the truce. It appears, finally OSCE is beginning to pay attention. Head of OSCE mission in Donbass Alexander Hug announced that they would install a 360 view camera in Zaitsevo.
On video below a local DNR commander says that he has had a camera installed for a while, and this camera has registered violations by Kiev. But OSCE doesn’t seem to accept local video proof.
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Videos below show how terrible this violent spring is in Donbass. It’s especially striking when you see destroyed houses and schools next to the blossoming trees. Videos are in English and Russian.
Zaitsevo local: They’ll begin shelling as soon as you leave. This man says that very few people are still left in the village. He miraculously still has water, but no gas and no electricity:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBTtyNdj4M8Shelling begins as soon as OSCE has left. April 12, 2016:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhlmCgdEzkEOld lady to OSCE’s Hug: We are preparing for Paskha (Russian Easter) but don’t know if we’ll survive till then:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUNNRgQqTpMOSCE plan to install a camera in Zaitsevo:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bKJQqWGdV0