Downtrend started? - page 3. | Bitcointalksearch.org

MAbtc

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Quote from: Tzupy on January 08, 2014, 02:14:19 PM

I don't understand why people believe that the bear market will only last 'a few weeks'.
In April 2013 wave B took 8-9 days, now it took 19-20 days, at least 2x longer.
And wave C went from the 24th April to the 6th July, about 2.5 months.
In 2011 wave C took about 4-5 months, and so far the market resembles the 2011 patterns.
So IMO this bear market, which may have some nice rebounds, should take about 4-5 months.

Tzupy, what's your ~ target for bottom of Wave C at this time? Cheesy

MatTheCat

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Quote from: arepo on January 08, 2014, 01:17:54 PM

yes i will but it is in the utmost case a beginning sideward moving since there are no bad News resulting and forcing in an downtrend

also, @ roeland, trading on "gut feeling" is a terrible idea that will yield results worse than chance. you will end up lagging sentiment instead of leading it and will be pick-pocketed by every better trader.

Fucking well said!

Show me a link to your pay TA report.

Quote from: Wilhelm on January 08, 2014, 01:00:16 PM

Hopefully this is the last spanner in the works from China. Undecided

China?

From what I seen Bitstamp lead the drop down by a country mile.

Unless of course Chinese coin has started making its way over to Bitstamp to cash out into foreign currencies.....now there is a thought for the bulltards!?

segeln

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Quote from: arepo on January 08, 2014, 01:41:41 PM

it's actually a very important distinction.
arepo

arepo, no offence meant, but for me it is still hair-splitting

KARHU

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Quote from: Tzupy on January 08, 2014, 02:14:19 PM

I don't understand why people believe that the bear market will only last 'a few weeks'.
In April 2013 wave B took 8-9 days, now it took 19-20 days, at least 2x longer.
And wave C went from the 24th April to the 6th July, about 2.5 months.
In 2011 wave C took about 4-5 months, and so far the market resembles the 2011 patterns.
So IMO this bear market, which may have some nice rebounds, should take about 4-5 months.

KARHU respects your wisdom, you will prosper for the duration of Karhunpeijaiset. It is regrettable that fools do not heed your warnings.

Tzupy

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Activity: 2170

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I don't understand why people believe that the bear market will only last 'a few weeks'.
In April 2013 wave B took 8-9 days, now it took 19-20 days, at least 2x longer.
And wave C went from the 24th April to the 6th July, about 2.5 months.
In 2011 wave C took about 4-5 months, and so far the market resembles the 2011 patterns.
So IMO this bear market, which may have some nice rebounds, should take about 4-5 months.

T.Stuart

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One Token to Move Anything Anywhere

Quote from: arepo on January 08, 2014, 01:41:41 PM

it's actually a very important distinction.

what the bad news may have done was turn a natural market correction into a bit of panic-selling, that's all, but there's not even any way of knowing! there's no way to quantify the news' effect on price, and that causes a lot of problems in trying to anticipate it in any real way. the price doesn't respond to news in the binary way you imagined when you used the phrase "force in a downtrend" and that's exactly the point i was trying to make.

--arepo

In any case, and perhaps off the point, but the panic element of the selling has been quite subdued from what I can see. Obviously a good thing (unless you're a trader who loves trading on panic!).

arepo

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this statement is false

Quote from: segeln on January 08, 2014, 01:28:16 PM

Quote from: arepo on January 08, 2014, 01:24:22 PM

i never said it doesn't affect prices. i said it doesn't "force in a downtrend".

That`s rabulistic or hair-splitting

it's actually a very important distinction.

what the bad news may have done was turn a natural market correction into a bit of panic-selling, that's all, but there's not even any way of knowing! there's no way to quantify the news' effect on price, and that causes a lot of problems in trying to anticipate it in any real way. the price doesn't respond to news in the binary way you imagined when you used the phrase "force in a downtrend" and that's exactly the point i was trying to make.

--arepo

damiano

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103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.

Additionally I would just call this a correction and not a "Downtrend". Were already off the lows and the exchanges look healthier than they did 24 hours ago.

segeln

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Quote from: damiano on January 08, 2014, 01:06:50 PM

At this point we have heard the worst China has to say. There will be more positives coming on a weekly basis throughout the world.

I completely agree

nastybit

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Quote from: arepo on January 08, 2014, 01:24:22 PM

Quote from: segeln on January 08, 2014, 01:23:33 PM

Quote from: arepo on January 08, 2014, 01:17:54 PM

i'm getting reaaaaaaaally tired of saying this but bad news doesn't 'force in a downtrend'. that's simply not how price behavior works.

so you think News like

Quote

FBI will sell BTC of the SR Raid

or

Quote

USA will shutdown BTC Exchanges

won`t affect Prices?
Not really,or?

i never said it doesn't affect prices. i said it doesn't "force in a downtrend".

first option: it does, because the market cannot absorb it, the rest will panic sell

second option: it does, my estimate is beyond $1...

segeln

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Quote from: arepo on January 08, 2014, 01:24:22 PM

i never said it doesn't affect prices. i said it doesn't "force in a downtrend".

That`s rabulistic or hair-splitting

Wilhelm

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Quote from: T.Stuart on January 08, 2014, 01:10:46 PM

Quote from: damiano on January 08, 2014, 01:06:50 PM

Quote from: Wilhelm on January 08, 2014, 01:00:16 PM

Hopefully this is the last spanner in the works from China. Undecided

At this point we have heard the worst China has to say. There will be more positives coming on a weekly basis throughout the world.

+1 - there is a lot coming now and to come and this is why the price is so bouyant - market sentiment is actually good!

I truely believe in bitcoin and much good stuff is coming. Hope that no other countries adopt the Chinese way of enforcing bitcoin.
Bitcoin is resilient enough to survive and keep on going as long as the internet is not censured. Bitcoin keeps recovering from these "glitches" which proves that bitcoin is really good.

Well I'm in for atleast 3 years of Hodling and gathering more. Either I make it big or I lose trying

arepo

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this statement is false

Quote from: segeln on January 08, 2014, 01:23:33 PM

Quote from: arepo on January 08, 2014, 01:17:54 PM

i'm getting reaaaaaaaally tired of saying this but bad news doesn't 'force in a downtrend'. that's simply not how price behavior works.

so you think News like

Quote

FBI will sell BTC of the SR Raid

or

Quote

USA will shutdown BTC Exchanges

won`t affect Prices?
Not really,or?

i never said it doesn't affect prices. i said it doesn't "force in a downtrend".

segeln

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: arepo on January 08, 2014, 01:17:54 PM

i'm getting reaaaaaaaally tired of saying this but bad news doesn't 'force in a downtrend'. that's simply not how price behavior works.

so you think News like

Quote

FBI will sell BTC of the SR Raid

or

Quote

USA will shutdown BTC Exchanges

won`t affect Prices?
Not really,or?

dnaleor

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Activity: 1470

Merit: 1000

Want privacy? Use Monero!

Quote from: segeln on January 08, 2014, 12:59:27 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on January 08, 2014, 12:17:17 PM

U would redraw that line everytime.

yes i will but it is in the utmost case a beginning sideward moving since there are no bad News resulting and forcing in an downtrend

(...)

After the april bubble and crash and rebounce uptrend, there was no bad news either. We just slided down from 180 USD to 65 USD in a couple of months. I do not think such a large downtrend will happen due to the fact that we have more media exposure and users, but a small one, yes, that is a real possibility...

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: segeln on January 08, 2014, 12:59:27 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on January 08, 2014, 12:17:17 PM

U would redraw that line everytime.

yes i will but it is in the utmost case a beginning sideward moving since there are no bad News resulting and forcing in an downtrend

i'm getting reaaaaaaaally tired of saying this but bad news doesn't 'force in a downtrend'. that's simply not how price behavior works.

also, @ roeland, trading on "gut feeling" is a terrible idea that will yield results worse than chance. you will end up lagging sentiment instead of leading it and will be pick-pocketed by every better trader.

T.Stuart

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Activity: 644

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One Token to Move Anything Anywhere

Quote from: damiano on January 08, 2014, 01:06:50 PM

Quote from: Wilhelm on January 08, 2014, 01:00:16 PM

Hopefully this is the last spanner in the works from China. Undecided

At this point we have heard the worst China has to say. There will be more positives coming on a weekly basis throughout the world.

+1 - there is a lot coming now and to come and this is why the price is so bouyant - market sentiment is actually good!

damiano

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.

Quote from: Wilhelm on January 08, 2014, 01:00:16 PM

Hopefully this is the last spanner in the works from China. Undecided

At this point we have heard the worst China has to say. There will be more positives coming on a weekly basis throughout the world.

Wilhelm

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1265

Hopefully this is the last spanner in the works from China. Undecided

segeln

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: MatTheCat on January 08, 2014, 12:17:17 PM

U would redraw that line everytime.

yes i will but it is in the utmost case a beginning sideward moving since there are no bad News resulting and forcing in an downtrend

Topic: Downtrend started? - page 3. (Read 9512 times)