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Topic: Downtrend started? - page 4. (Read 9512 times)

legendary
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January 08, 2014, 12:50:16 PM
dnaleor, come on man, work with me here Cheesy

I already agreed: the previous "Christmas trend" is broken. What I don't agree with is your pulled-out-of-nowhere claim that we'll enter a bear market for several weeks as a result. That part requires a bit more evidence, no?

just a "gut feeling", no TA:

I just think we went towards 1000 usd too fast (even for bitcoin).
There was only 5 days with BTC price above 1000 USD in the "china bubble" (excluding gox here, because who wants to cash out there anyway?). That is not enough time for triggering people cashing out. As a result, we saw the crash. Some people regret that they were too greedy and did not cash out above 1000 USD. So when 1000 USD is approached again, people tend to sell.

We need slow growth to have less volatility. I was certain the recent uptrend would trigger some volatility so decided to watch the market closely when we approched 900+ USD.

I am a longterm bull and do not want to cash out. I believe in a world with BTC as main currency. But sometimes, it is not bad to keep some distance from your investment and "feel the market". I only trade the "large trends" and this was an opportunity I took.

PS: I never sell during a rally with new ATHs, because it is very unpredictable how high the top will be.
PPS: When I sell, I want to buy more BTC. I do not want to have my profit in dirty fiat.
hero member
Activity: 644
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January 08, 2014, 12:32:43 PM
dnaleor, come on man, work with me here Cheesy

I already agreed: the previous "Christmas trend" is broken. What I don't agree with is your pulled-out-of-nowhere claim that we'll enter a bear market for several weeks as a result. That part requires a bit more evidence, no?

+1  Be brave man!! No reason to fear a two week bear market with all this bouyant weightlessness!   Wink
sr. member
Activity: 346
Merit: 250
January 08, 2014, 12:31:45 PM
dnaleor, come on man, work with me here Cheesy

I already agreed: the previous "Christmas trend" is broken. What I don't agree with is your pulled-out-of-nowhere claim that we'll enter a bear market for several weeks as a result. That part requires a bit more evidence, no?

nothing very TA there, but i would assume that increasing impatience would be some kind of an indicator. I mean, reaching 1200$ in only 1 month and trying to consolidate the month after must have led to some more speculators being impatient for the next wave. Hence they would be more sensible to downward variation in price as the euphoria from last rally is calming down: bear market here we go.

one thing interesting would be to measure the speculation forum's traffic to figure when people are getting impatient/agitated?!
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
January 08, 2014, 12:20:31 PM
dnaleor, come on man, work with me here Cheesy

I already agreed: the previous "Christmas trend" is broken. What I don't agree with is your pulled-out-of-nowhere claim that we'll enter a bear market for several weeks as a result. That part requires a bit more evidence, no?
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
January 08, 2014, 12:17:17 PM
not yet



God.

U would redraw that line everytime.

We are 20% from the high of 48 hours ago. Seems like a bit of a downtrend to me, or is 20% underwater in 2 days simply 'consolidating'?
hero member
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January 08, 2014, 11:43:14 AM
not yet

legendary
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January 08, 2014, 11:30:32 AM

At bitstamp, the trend is definitely broken. Check this 4h chart


But gox is still struggeling. We will enter a bearish fase for a couple of weeks if that happens.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
January 08, 2014, 06:04:53 AM
I didn't say I'm not bearish Cheesy Just that I still disagree with your analysis. You continue looking at a time frame of the latest uptrend (the one that started at around Christmas), and then show (correctly, as I would say) that this trend broke. But then your conclusion is actually much larger than that: you say your outlook "for a few weeks" is bearish. I don't know how you would come to that conclusion, unless you add a large dose of EW axioms (which I am extremely skeptical about).
hero member
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January 08, 2014, 06:04:30 AM
It is going up again:


legendary
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January 08, 2014, 02:12:03 AM
Ok, you asked for a larger time frame?

Mt.Gox is not (yet) decided...

But when I look at bitstamp...

I become kinda bearish... (fora few weeks probably)
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
January 08, 2014, 01:43:58 AM
#99
Price is taaanking boys. Sell now! it's gonna blooow!

[imagine this with a pirate accent]

I just did, but apparently I made a weird face because everyone around is looking....
Thanks Lips sealed
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
January 07, 2014, 09:48:39 PM
#98
sources
newbie
Activity: 53
Merit: 0
January 07, 2014, 09:28:45 PM
#97
The phase of the bull is now in it's decent, mighty dues shall be paid to the KARHU during the Karhunpeijaiset and those who worship rightly will be paid many times their due. There are those who refuse to listen to the prophets of KARHU and continue with their foolish worship of the bull....they too shall pay their dues to the KARHU and it is their choice alone how much they suffer for their intransigence.
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
January 07, 2014, 07:01:38 PM
#96
Price is taaanking boys. Sell now! it's gonna blooow!

[imagine this with a pirate accent]
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000
January 07, 2014, 06:47:11 PM
#95
Many of the people that do TA were around when BTC was worth $2 or $20 or $50. The further back someone goes, I find, generally the harder it is for them to justify the current price in their own minds.

The old myth of the "fair price." A basic human error, catalogued all the way back to Aquinas.
member
Activity: 99
Merit: 10
January 07, 2014, 06:04:52 PM
#94
hero member
Activity: 1302
Merit: 502
January 07, 2014, 04:35:10 PM
#93
This is it people.  We're entering the long slow slide, which will probably be a short fast fall, given all the bad news and the fact that bitcoin has reached its saturation point and there's really nothing interesting or useful left to do development wise.  Long term outlook is pretty dismal, I'm sorry to say.

Oh the huge manatee!!!

You rang?
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
January 07, 2014, 03:51:28 PM
#92
This is it people.  We're entering the long slow slide, which will probably be a short fast fall, given all the bad news and the fact that bitcoin has reached its saturation point and there's really nothing interesting or useful left to do development wise.  Long term outlook is pretty dismal, I'm sorry to say.

You're cute when you're back in troll mode Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
January 07, 2014, 03:49:57 PM
#91
This is it people.  We're entering the long slow slide, which will probably be a short fast fall, given all the bad news and the fact that bitcoin has reached its saturation point and there's really nothing interesting or useful left to do development wise.  Long term outlook is pretty dismal, I'm sorry to say.

Oh the huge manatee!!!
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
January 07, 2014, 03:42:31 PM
#90
Because MtGox SWIFT withdrawals do not work, mtgoxUSD trades consistently higher than bitstampUSD (the mtgoxUSD is devalued). Sometimes, this price difference temporarily spikes up, sometimes it spikes down, for no good reason really.

but that's not satisfying at all, blitz. why should this ever happen? the price differential makes sense to me, but not decoupling of trends.
The differential itself decouples for a period of time, not the trend. When that decoupling happens, of course you will perceive that event as a change in trend.

Why does the differential decouple, sometimes to be "sticky" at around 0% (yes, it has been that way sometimes post MtGox withdrawal delay), other times 5%, 10% or 15%? No clue, I think it is a certain randomness since inherent conditions never changed. It used to puzzle me too, now I just accept that even with regard to something as straight forward as this, the market is irrational as a whole at times.
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