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Topic: Downtrend started? - page 5. (Read 9511 times)

hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
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January 07, 2014, 03:39:33 PM
#89
This is it people.  We're entering the long slow slide, which will probably be a short fast fall, given all the bad news and the fact that bitcoin has reached its saturation point and there's really nothing interesting or useful left to do development wise.  Long term outlook is pretty dismal, I'm sorry to say.

The maddest senior troll of them all!  Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
January 07, 2014, 03:30:11 PM
#88
This is it people.  We're entering the long slow slide, which will probably be a short fast fall, given all the bad news and the fact that bitcoin has reached its saturation point and there's really nothing interesting or useful left to do development wise.  Long term outlook is pretty dismal, I'm sorry to say.
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
January 07, 2014, 03:28:17 PM
#87
perma bulls, still convinced this is just a correction?  Roll Eyes
Quote
Yes !
Quote
we'll see... Lips sealed

so, what do you see now ?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/85tAicsz/
sr. member
Activity: 346
Merit: 250
January 07, 2014, 03:03:32 PM
#86
What confuses me about this Subject is that it asks whether a downtrend is starting during a short term bull in a downtrend that had started a month ago.

Noting volume compared to the upward spike in Nov points toward a continued downtrend regardless of where the price manipulation is.

Hello, been following for a while, now stepping in the arena.. Anyho, imho, the periods where there was more volumes are more reliable to extrapolate a trend frame. Hence, i would consider the overall down trend after nov's spike. I believe this short term bull market that occurred within last month was mostly due to low volumes vs. demand (and considering the overwhelming feeling that Bitcoin could be a great success: hodl! Cheesy)

More generally speaking, I would tend to believe that now that people/companies worldwide are showing interest in Bitcoin, the pressure should drop again before starting a more healthy uptrend, which would eventually lead to some other bullrush when even more people actually start using bitcoins. In fact i think this long downtrend pattern went a little bit offtrack this last month because of the feeling that 2013 had been a wonderful year for bitcoin and that 2014 is going to be even better: but, as they say, "one should not sell the bear's fur before killing it"  Grin
full member
Activity: 198
Merit: 100
January 07, 2014, 02:17:11 PM
#85
What confuses me about this Subject is that it asks whether a downtrend is starting during a short term bull in a downtrend that had started a month ago.

Noting volume compared to the upward spike in Nov points toward a continued downtrend regardless of where the price manipulation is.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 508
January 07, 2014, 01:08:53 PM
#84
perma bulls, still convinced this is just a correction?  Roll Eyes




well... I'm not a perma bull, but to answer your question it matters what you mean by "correction". the sub-correction to the smaller uptrend that started ~2 weeks ago, or the big correction to the december ATH. I mean, what's your motivation for the choice of time frame? Not that I take the following as evidence that the correction is over for sure, but here, have a larger broken downtrend in any case Cheesy





Indeed. For comparison, we similarly broke the downtrend in May 2013. The larger bear market remained intact.
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
January 07, 2014, 10:43:51 AM
#83
perma bulls, still convinced this is just a correction?  Roll Eyes
Yes !


The green ascending Line is the a possible mid-term upwards-trend. Not been broken yet

we'll see... Lips sealed
in 1 or 2 days it will be resolved
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
January 07, 2014, 09:22:02 AM
#82
perma bulls, still convinced this is just a correction?  Roll Eyes
Yes !


The green ascending Line is the a possible mid-term upwards-trend. Not been broken yet

we'll see... Lips sealed
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
January 07, 2014, 09:05:39 AM
#81
perma bulls, still convinced this is just a correction?  Roll Eyes
Yes !


The green ascending Line is the mid-term upwards-trend. Not been broken yet
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
January 07, 2014, 09:02:55 AM
#80
perma bulls, still convinced this is just a correction?  Roll Eyes




well... I'm not a perma bull, but to answer your question it matters what you mean by "correction". the sub-correction to the smaller uptrend that started ~2 weeks ago, or the big correction to the december ATH. I mean, what's your motivation for the choice of time frame? Not that I take the following as evidence that the correction is over for sure, but here, have a larger broken downtrend in any case Cheesy




legendary
Activity: 1470
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January 07, 2014, 08:24:53 AM
#79
perma bulls, still convinced this is just a correction?  Roll Eyes

sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
January 07, 2014, 07:54:00 AM
#78
Because MtGox SWIFT withdrawals do not work, mtgoxUSD trades consistently higher than bitstampUSD (the mtgoxUSD is devalued). Sometimes, this price difference temporarily spikes up, sometimes it spikes down, for no good reason really.

but that's not satisfying at all, blitz. why should this ever happen? the price differential makes sense to me, but not decoupling of trends.

People eager to cash out go to Stamp, When they want to cash out, maybe they are more prone to panic selling.

yes i was thinking something like this. why even bother selling on gox? that is so absurd though it invalidates gox data by a serious degree...
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
January 07, 2014, 07:52:02 AM
#77
Because MtGox SWIFT withdrawals do not work, mtgoxUSD trades consistently higher than bitstampUSD (the mtgoxUSD is devalued). Sometimes, this price difference temporarily spikes up, sometimes it spikes down, for no good reason really.

but that's not satisfying at all, blitz. why should this ever happen? the price differential makes sense to me, but not decoupling of trends.

People eager to cash out go to Stamp, When they want to cash out, maybe they are more prone to panic selling.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
January 07, 2014, 07:51:03 AM
#76
Because MtGox SWIFT withdrawals do not work, mtgoxUSD trades consistently higher than bitstampUSD (the mtgoxUSD is devalued). Sometimes, this price difference temporarily spikes up, sometimes it spikes down, for no good reason really.

but that's not satisfying at all, blitz. why should this ever happen? the price differential makes sense to me, but not decoupling of trends.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
January 07, 2014, 07:48:36 AM
#75
critical support on bitstamp ($875) decisisvely breached. next stop, $863, then, bear market.

gox and stamp decoupled again Huh gox consolidation pattern not even knocking on its own floor...

Arepo, since you make a lot of informative quality posts, what could be reasons for this decoupling? Manipulation?
(sorry if this is a noob question, only trying to get informed Smiley )

haha thanks but that doesn't really make me a 'trusted source' or anything of the like. i would recommend you thoroughly fact-check anything anyone says on these forums.

that being said, i have absolutely no clue Tongue perhaps the consolidation price at gox is lower compared to the bottom support so even though it isn't straying far it is actually threatening to break down, as well. bitstamp is really taking a tumble though it doesn't really add up...

i would trust bitstamp over gox, though, at this point. last night's shut-down-in-the-middle-of-the-night-time-dump was realllly suspicious.

--arepo
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
January 07, 2014, 07:46:23 AM
#74
Because MtGox SWIFT withdrawals do not work, mtgoxUSD trades consistently higher than bitstampUSD (the mtgoxUSD is devalued). Sometimes, this price difference temporarily spikes up, sometimes it spikes down, for no good reason really.
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
January 07, 2014, 07:43:40 AM
#73
critical support on bitstamp ($875) decisisvely breached. next stop, $863, then, bear market.

gox and stamp decoupled again Huh gox consolidation pattern not even knocking on its own floor...

Arepo, since you make a lot of informative quality posts, what could be reasons for this decoupling? Manipulation?
(sorry if this is a noob question, only trying to get informed Smiley )
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
January 07, 2014, 07:34:56 AM
#72
critical support on bitstamp ($875) decisisvely breached. next stop, $863, then, bear market.

gox and stamp decoupled again Huh gox consolidation pattern not even knocking on its own floor...
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
January 07, 2014, 04:30:48 AM
#71
Here is the Extension to 1/10/2014 of the up-trend since 12/18/2013
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
January 07, 2014, 03:17:09 AM
#70

ok, the four year log chart looks amazingly consistent, but not very useful for day trading or even weekly trading. I gauge the market with fundamental analysis more than technical.

ah! but do the fundamentals change on a weekly basis? and even news events -- how do you quantify their effect on price? for instance, how do you measure whether a particular piece of news has a positive or negative effect on market sentiment? it is not really empirical to use your own reaction for this.

The four year log chart is all I need. if it goes down too much, I buy a little. If it goes up too fast, I sell a little. I only buy with money from previous sell orders and never sell more than the percentage of the price gain. no prediction necessary except an upward price bias.

so you're saying that daytrading fares little better than chance? if so, i can respect that, because it is the opposite conclusion of most who use technical analysis. what i hate most is the naysayers who still try to daytrade based on what? gut feeling? i don't even know. but the price is either a random walk, or it exhibits nonrandom behavior which can be exploited for profit. there is little in-between...

--arepo

gut feeling is worthless. I only tried it twice. the last time was last weekend when I thought five days up was enough and I was counting on a weekend dip to pick up a coin on the cheap. that didn't work out so well. the time before that was in 2011 when I maxed out my credit cards and took a loan to buy at $6-$17/BTC. pretty happy I did that now.
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