Topic: Economic Devastation - page 130. (Read 504811 times)

to be honest we are still thinking in 20th century mentality where there should be number one state to jandarme the rest.. why?
we entered 20th century with pretty much three powers. great britain, russian empire and usa. ww1 resulted in great britain becoming absolute hegemon. ww2 turned tables thank to stalin and returned russia onto the geopolitical chess table, great britain lost hegemon status and usa took over the battle. collapse of soviet union gave usa absolute dominance over theworld through banking opression. now they are loosing this battle and imploding while we all scramble in panic to decide who is taking over now.. why? why cant we exist in 21st century within some sort of global feudalism? well, until any of the entities recover fast enough to claim that status. obviously ability to recover quickly will dictate who can clim the crown.
personally i believe russia is the country that have ability to recover fast - it always does. if you let russia develop for long enough without sending armies towards it then with endless resources it has a chance. in that case priority number one for anglo-american establishment would be to make china confront with russia. thats the only way they can fight. sneaky geopolitical tactics is what made british so powerful.
by the way russian ban of bitcoins is very clever. it claims to not allow transaction in 'surrogate' currencies - though there is no definition on what 'surrogate' means. also there is no ban on possesion - only transaction is not allowed. if caught there is only about upto $1k fine but no confiscation. though i totally understand the reason why they did it. russia is fighting the system that been placed there by usa financial advisors after collapse of soviet union. every business set up in such way that profit dont stay in russia, so vast network of offshores set up for sucking wealth away. bitcoin is perfect offshore - so thats your reason for that law.
there is saying in russia:
strictness of russian law is compensated by lack of its enforcement.

If you have them please do....

...

Some random, but perhaps pertinent, thoughts:

One) Some 80,000,000 Americans own guns, total est. gun population: approx. 300,000,000.  I myself bought 300 rounds more of 9 mm ammo yesterday.  Molon Labe.  I agree with above comment about the military NOT firing on the people (yes, many of the "Three Letters" might, but there are more of us than there are of them).

Two) I have not been to India nor Pakistan, but everything credible I read is that their young geniuses (the "Knowledge Age" vanguard to vanquish America I presume) in the ghettos are "not ready for prime time" in the sense of being able to make any more than marginal changes to the world.  I have been to China, Brazil and South Africa, their young geniuses will not make much difference either.

Three) People want to move to the USA.  Yes, sure, some Indians and Chinese go back.  Why not?  Seek their fortune "back home" once they have earned their grubstake here.  That's called freedom!  A big reason many stay here.

Four) Peru is not the only place with physical and cultural constraints to an imminent "Knowledge Age".  Peru has the ANDES making transport much more difficult.  Poverty-stricken Africa (no capital...) has jungles (for those of you who have never spent "quality time" in the jungle, trust me, it's a nasty place) & rivers & deserts...  Places like India & Pakistan treat their women like second-class citizens.  China *may* be lifting its One Child policy.  South Africa (number five of the BRICS), ah, who invests there?  RUSSIA is always on the verge of banning Bitcoin, sound like a winner to any of you?  China has recently banned GOOGLE services, ah, is that what #Winners do?

Five) Brazil (Petrobras), Russia (every business and .gov activity), India (same), China (same), South Africa (same) ALL have corruption much greater than our own.  The Knowledge Age will be held back in countries run by corrupt crony mafias...  BAD as things are in the USA (hence "Economic Devastation" IS a real threat), I would contend that things are worse THERE.  

Six) I do respect Dr. Jim Willie, he has great insights and apparently great contacts (I claim neither).  But, I believe that JW is WRONG about the "BRICS Bank" (a piddly-little clone of the Bretton Woods Agreement (IMF and World Bank).  Since the end of their BRICS Summit in Fortaleza, have ANY of you heard anything about the BRICS Bank?  Unlikely.  China itself would be over 50% of it anyway, LOL...  Has that $100 billion gone into it yet?  $100 bn is chump-change anyway...  Here is my take from July 2014, I was not satisfied with what I was reading, so I went and dug up the info (with some help) myself: http://goo.gl/y9WpM4

Seven) Dr. Willie mentions "Gold Trade Notes" a lot (in support of his thesis that the USA is KAPUT).  Last time I "googled" Gold Trade Notes (supposedly to take over international commerce from Letters of Credit), ALL references came back to him, I saw NO references of that term from anyone but him or quoting him.

Eight) Inspired by contagion, I went and looked at the latest several articles of Martin Armstrong, whom I had run into before he was sprung from prison.  I am withholding judgement on his general thesis (theses) as they are not easy to digest in a couple of sittings (like FOFOA is not easy).  I noticed nothing obvious from Armstrong about the "Knowledge Age", but perhaps contagion is arguing Knowledge Age from other bloggers (I just do not recall).

Nine) America is splintered, we no longer have the "Melting Pot" style of thinking.  We are very diverse.  Yet China, Russia and India are very splintered as well, into MANY languages and ethnic groups.  Brazil is by no means one race either...  Pakistan, ahh...  Indonesia, ahh...  I believe that all of our significant rivals are as splintered, perhaps more so (with more hatred, hard to say) than we are.

*  *  *

Bottom Line:

Yes, if we can keep everything from blowing up, a "Knowledge Age" is likely (perhaps a Kurtzweil-ian "Singularity"?).  But, it ain't happening soon.  There are not only the physical & cultural factors retarding such an Age I mentioned above, but there is tremendous .gov and other Elite resistance...

Keep diversified, and keep your gold (and BTC).

Does that mean I am saying, "Don't learn programming or the nuts & bolts of Bitcoin or other technology"?  Not at all.  Those are skills of the future (probably), and will likely lead to a good living.

But, will the Age of Knowledge fix those potholes in Cleveland and Calcutta in the foreseeable future?  

Nope.

I think you've misconstrued my perspective into meaning something that it's not intended to.

I agree, the USA will fracture. It's primed and ready to happen; however, what it fractures into is where I hold my hopes. This country was born from fractures, and I believe that it can be reformed from fractures. When I said "the US would have favorable conditions for recovery" that was taking a huge leap and making an assumption that the people can successfully take back this country for themselves...

The damage caused by Katrina is not directly comparable to the damage that will be caused by economic devastation; neither in lost infrastructure, nor in the manner of public perception. While the government was successful with gun confiscation in New Orleans during Katrina, the majority of the people whose guns were confiscated were of an older generation who believed that they would have those guns returned by court order (which has already happened.) Since most of the residents had fled prior to the storm hitting, there was only a fraction of the population remaining making the job of confiscation much easier. Maybe my opinion is skewed because of my age, or my upbringing, or the people I associate with, but my personal experiences with many of the people I've spoken with in my own community has lead me to believe that a gross majority still hold on to those core values which are contrary to this "new direction."

I think the degree of totalitarian extent that the Fed is willing to go to is fairly obvious from the preparations they've made, however I'm not sure they can pull it off without a public reaction. Even under martial law the police officers want to return home to their families safely. One of my customers is an officer with my local PD; I've spoken with him at great length about how the local PD might react under different scenarios such as martial law, economic collapse, and of a situation involving a revolution. What I learned was that the general opinion coming from the majority of the officers (the way they talk about it among themselves) was to follow the Constitution and side with the community before anything else, even if that meant supporting a revolution. I just don't know how the Fed can accomplish what it wants from a logistics standpoint when the personnel losses (those who simply won't be compelled to follow certain orders) will compound with every community...

If UN soldiers did come into the US and act as a militarized police force, the heads of government who support this may as well just hang themselves. The idea was tossed around, and it was a complete political disaster. They've ruined that card, they can just tear it from the NWO play book now. The outcry was so fierce in opposition that we had political "higher ups" like the governor of Texas, talking about supporting and encouraging people to shoot them on sight. He was joined by several others who would oppose any foreign military occupation within the US. I remember seeing bumper stickers printed with a blue UN helmet in the center of a bulls eye floating around for a while.

I think you grossly underestimated the actual number of gun owners in America.  "The long-running General Social Survey, maintained at the University of Chicago, has been asking about gun ownership since its inception in the 1970s. It has found that the number of people who say they have a gun in their home is at an all time low – hovering around 30 percent, from a high of 50 percent in the 1970s." This statistic isn't at all surprising and is certainly very low because gun owners are wising up to the reality that they need to keep their gun ownership to themselves. I will never answer yes to that question on a government form and neither would people who are living in areas where gun restrictions are getting tighter. Gun culture is generally well educated (gun culture is descriptive of the group who passes on proper respect for guns as part of upbringing.) One of the pieces of knowledge that has been passed to me was "never, ever register a gun." This is common knowledge. It's estimated that the actual rate of gun ownership in America ranges from between 39% and 59% of the population...

Mexico claiming US territory is a joke, people associate Mexican military with Mexican drug cartels; and for good reason. To think that an armed Mexican force would be able to fend off that much resistance is just too much...

I'm planning for the worst, but until the cards are laid on the table I don't feel right about abandoning my hope, especially when the scale of this event will be so grand that it will tend naturally to go completely wild. Something like this can't be carried out "all according to plan", there are simply too many pieces that will be falling randomly. You're correct that I have an emotional investment in America; but it's not this country that I'm emotionally invested in, rather this ideology. I still believe that people can find it within themselves not to give up on a dream that they have held onto for so many generations; one that we've gone astray from.

I did lose my business and it hurt me very much for my own mistakes. I can admit this, and I can also admit that you know a great deal more about the workings of geopolitics, economics, and no doubt countless other subject matters than I. Further, I've agreed with your assertions from the first time I happened across one, but there's a part of me that feels like waiting for the knowledge age to save us from tyranny will surely result in megadeath just as with every other failing tyrannical regime for any other reason. For this, I'm not ready to lose hope and concede when the chips are falling. When the knowledge age finally ends this tyranny it'll more likely be my children who witness that final atrocity than I, and that's not a comfortable feeling for me...

The likely genesis insight that lead to the essays in the OP:

http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/t124-theory-of-everthing#3583
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=2556&cpage=1#comment-278634
http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Housing Recovery Illusion.html

Some of my (JustSaying's) past writings for perspective (when I was apparently much more mentally sharp than I am now, or maybe I've grown weary of repeating myself):

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4867&cpage=1#comment-397476

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Katrina.



You've ignored all the factual points I ( as contagion) made on the last 2 pages of this thread. Sorry you couldn't be more wrong.

Sorry guys, the USA will  fracture. You really don't want it to be so, because you are emotionally and physically invested in the USA. Denying it is only going to make your planning suffer.

What is not clear is to what totalitarian extent the Feds will go to prevent the breakup of the USA. I assume they will push very far into martial law. And if there aren't enough crazies returning from Iraq and militarized police to do the dirty deeds, Kissinger promised UN blue hats on USA soil.

You say the people won't allow it, but only a few million have guns. The rest can't resist. TPTB are ready to do this war I think against the NRA. Katrina was the warmup test.

pungo, you know what happened to you the last time you didn't plan and had your head in denial about your business. You lost everything. Don't repeat the same damn ignorance again! Cripes man, I thought you were astute and studious. Now I see you foaming nonsense from your mouth and ignoring a person who is much more knowledge and proven to be correct every damn time.


And I could have ignored others spouting nonsense and not registered again, but it is my concern for the 20-something pungo after having gained a modicum of respect for him, which he seems now determined to destroy.

I disagree, you place too much power in the hands of our "leaders." There will be no civil war in America, when two social groups of citizens fight over a major issue, you have a civil war; when a social group of people fights with the government, you have a revolutionary war. The people of the Unites States are not and will not face off against each other. The US military will not fire on US citizens on US soil, there was a survey taken which overwhelmingly supports this statement. One of the things that you should consider is the network effect created by the close ties of families and friends. These ties extend to the members of those three letter agencies which will fire on US citizens under our current circumstances, however that is subject to change when the scope of their interactions reaches further into the population and they lose the "good guy" vs "bad guy" mentality.

If our leaders attempt to use force to restrain liberty on a grand scale during a time of crisis, even below that discussed above, they will find themselves isolated, powerless, and vulnerable. The mechanisms they've put in place to grab additional powers are nothing but words on paper which rely on the people's willingness to cede those powers.

There is no chance that a foreign country will claim US territory, that will not happen. The people of the US would not allow that.

The rest of the world started out with top-down control. Unlike America, the conditions will not stop deteriorating until they have massacred themselves. The people depend on government control and have never known an alternative. The US will suffer but still has a foundation of self reliance to call upon when needed.  The US would have favorable conditions for recovery considering the wealth of natural resources, educated population, and preexisting infrastructure.

Global or civil, one would weaken the case for the other I imagine as a common enemy unites.   I do agree the most affected country would be USA as it imports the most, so we dont have to go full doom but missing capacity in its production does need to be made up if the dollar is no longer supported by external government wealth funds.
And the simple contrary to contagion or similar arguments is default becomes increasingly likely the better option, it doesnt mean war it might be trade failure and poorer people but USA is not a naturally impoverished countryside, in fact its a natural exporter not importer I think

I think it'd take more then a while, Asia is lacking in agricultural capacity and technology is still lacking.   In theory we have bio diesel and the means to replace crude oil with natural oil but its such a slim thing now that most dont know of it beyond still inefficient bio processing such as sugar cane which is pathetic imitation of the bio technology capable in a brighter future.
An economy is naturally based on what people need which for many centuries was largely food, we have progressed but skipping right to knowledge is not happening in this decade.  We still need to establish a very solid supply route for a growing world population and the greatest growth is in countries not as gifted as USA in food production so this is the first development I expect

you also have a valid point. though do you realise that once this bubble pops a global civil war will be imminent? i strongly believe that the most affected country would be america. while most brics supporting countries would unite, western countries will fight their citizens with all the differences that been built up over the years. what makes you think that after the civil war in america it will stay within same borders? mexicans can easily claim territories down south under pretext of protecting american-mexicans, white republicans can claim texas and neighbouring territories, there can be a black state on its own etc. my point is that it will take america really long time to recover while rest of the world have already shaped their financial system so they can switch quickly and soften its fall.

Contagion and I are not really arguing. I am merely analyzing some of his ideas by subjecting them to a little stress testing. Overall as I have mentioned I am in complete agreement with his overall thesis. Indeed there are many different bright people with all sorts of theories as to how and why the economy will change. Of these, I believe that the theory presented by Anonymint and highlighted in the OP is the correct one.

What we have debated recently is exactly how quickly such a transition will happen and how it will impact individual countries and areas. Personally I agree with OROBTC that the decline of the physical economy and a transition to a true knowledge economy may take a while. I also believe that the USA has some advantages that will allow it to recover faster than the rest of the West when the global debt bubble bursts.    

Both of these debates are somewhat tangential and assume that the underlying theory of a declining industrial age and a rising knowledge age is correct. They matter if you happen to live in the USA (which I do) or if you have a significant investment in the physical economy (which OROBTC does) but even if both OROBTC and I are correct  it does not weaken the underlying thesis that we are in the midst of a transition to a very different economy.  


Anonymint scrambles his password from time to time when he finds he is spending too much time on the forum.

Bitcoin.  We know drama.

There's an easy way to avoid political and government discontent - EVERYONE should vote...that's the only way for the decisions made by a government to truly reflect the will of the majority of the people. It's unfortunate that people forget this and think they have no control over their government.

“Change is the only constant in life.”
― Heraclitus 500 bc.   

  A return to the mean would have us make great changes from here.    Next time Krugman writes article, I wonder how many times he can deny factors which have been true for centuries.   So it could be looked at from two directions, I think we're at an extreme with so much debt supported by so little actual trade or export to create valid demand for that currency and debt.   
A return to normal would not continue that because this is not normal and I dont think even the FED argues this, arguably we just repeat from history of what other economies have seen.  On grander scale possibly and also due to technology much faster, which is where bitcoin comes in ?   I do hope we skip great depression decade long haul and its a more brief default event

Whys that, guess we'll never know now

instead of arguing i believe we should first aknowledge that the world's financial system is going through radical changes at the moment. there are many different bright people with all sort of theories as to when and how it will change and how it will affect us. what is clear is that status quo will not last any longer - can we all agree on that?

I am scrambling the password of the 'contagion' account, so I will no longer be able to login nor post from that account name.

I do think there are false dynamics in play.   Any really great failure is probably going to have people recognise the factors incorrectly beforehand.   That is a true story from about 20 years ago I read in a national newspaper, the point is people can believe a situation is improving even while the opposite is occurring and actually the symptoms are mis-recognised.   

So maybe an analogy I would try would be that of an avalanche.   What is a ski resort without snow, this is terrible and unemployment for many but even worse would be too much snow.   A normal system would be to acknowledge this danger and clear the snow from slopes in stages.   Thats just normal good practise, so I would relate that to bankruptcy and the situation we have now is they are storing up this kind of massive possible failure where all factors unwind at once.
With a thread subject as grand as devastation it might tend to hyperbole but I would relate it to natural events like this and I think economics should ultimately reflect that human actions are a natural phenomena.   I'll have a read through fallacies and see if Im guilty but the bottom line is politics dominates economies and politics ends up dealing or ignoring failures in the worst way

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Informal_fallacies

A thread like this is relevant in every decade of the last ten, but I still don't think it says much...

Why are people still listening to these idiot gold promoters? I was debating Jim Willie in email back in 2007, when he admitted to me he is an alcoholic. He made no sense then and still doesn't now. Do I need to publish some of these old emails?

Jim Willie:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHsESOY6kNA#t=334

I predicted the intial drop to $350 back when Bitcoin was $600s the first time, then I predicted the second drop to $300 when it was $600s the next time, and in September I said Bitcoin would fall below $200 before it bottoms.