Economic Devastation - page 129. | Bitcointalksearch.org

iamback

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Quote from: aminorex on January 05, 2015, 08:52:53 PM

I fear that frictions to capital formation will de-optimize

You assume a false dichotomy.

The Knowledge Age is about maximizing the formation of capital in the form of accrued knowledge, not in the form of financialization or stored monetary units.

Money becomes a language for trade, not for power law stored monetary suppression of maximum-division-of-labor efficiencies.

Actually you ostensibly don't understand the definition of "capital" (I know you do but why the conflation?), because you conflated it with money. The money you are storing is not capital and in fact (given the $200 trillion debt bubble) is anti-capital, i.e. money and capital have diverged because of the corrupted system. The real capital is the decentralized, bottom-up knowledge that drives the economy. Top-down knowledge is an oxymoron, as I explained in my essay "Rise of Knowledge" which is linked in the OP.

It was in the Industrial Age that the requisite large economies-of-scale and large upfront fixed capital investment costs, enabled monetary capital to parasite on the real capital of the economy and extract parasitic rents.

We thus assume money and capital are correlated, but not so.

Prof. Pettis even writes about "social capital", which is another example of stored money not being correlated to capital.

http://mic.com/articles/7970/the-difference-between-money-and-capital-in-the-american-economy

Quote

Much confusion in economics results from the common practice of referring to money as capital. In fact money and capital are two different things. Capital is the real resources that producers use in order to make the goods that we all consume: things like factories, machine tools, trucks, and roads. All capital exists in a specific form. Money on the other hand is non-specific; it can be used to buy anything that is available in the marketplace, including capital goods. This is what leads to the common practice of referring to money as capital.

In the Knowledge Age, the only capital for example a programmer needs is a personal computer, an internet connection, a desk next to his bed (or sleep under the desk), a six-pack of Jolt cola, gift coupons for Dominos Pizza, and most importantly knowledge of how to code (which is by far the most expensive item on this list).

iamback

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Quote from: aminorex on January 05, 2015, 08:52:53 PM

AnonyMint seems to like demurrage because he sees the cultural damage done by power-law distribution of wealth.

It has nothing to do with culture nor ideological preferences. You have ostensibly not understood why the Knowledge Age is important.

The maximum-division-of-labor is inhibited by the financialization of economies-of-scale, whereas in the Knowledge Age, the producers of knowledge can move their productions directly to the end consumer, thus the middle man of finance is cut out. The Theory of the Firm middle man is similarly cut out.

It is all about advancing the rate at which prosperity accelerates.

Sorry but rpietila and you still don't get it. Try to read my "Rise of Knowledge" essay linked from the OP more carefully (or perhaps you never read it?).

Quote from: aminorex on January 05, 2015, 08:52:53 PM

The desirable outcome is a level playing field, in which transactions are free, nigh frictionless, and contracting is libre.

Exactly. But you can't accomplish that without funding mining. Transaction fees have scaling issues one of which is they are a friction on trade.

The Knowledge Age places no value on (perpetually) stored monetary capital, thus debasement to fund mining has no such adverse cost. Debasement is only expropriating from those people who try to parasite on the Knowledge Age and moving backwards to the financialization Industrial Age.

The Knowledge Age worker needs liquidity and trade, not ~~long-term~~eternally stored monetary units, because his knowledge wealth is growing orders-of-magnitude faster than the debasement.

Did the light bulb turn on yet?

P.S. the problem of the world today is there is too much useless stored monetary capital (we created $200 trillion of global debt and gave it to ourselves and expect it to generate wealth!):

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/12/how-might-a-china-slowdown-affect-the-world/

Quote from: Prof. Pettis

So what kind of world are we in – one with excess savings, or one with excess demand? I would be truly surprised if anyone suggested that we are in the latter world and not the former. A world of excess savings is prone to bubbles, and either debt-fueled consumption or high unemployment, and this pretty much describes the world we have been living for the past two decades.

...

In the United States during much of the 19th Century, an erratic and unstable financial system combined with the huge infrastructure needs of a rapidly expanding continental economy meant that the US was almost always in short supply of money and capital*, and so to a large extent its growth rate was constrained mainly by British liquidity. When money poured into the US from Europe, and mainly from England, investments in the US grew apace and the US economy boomed, until some event caused the taps to be turned off (the collapse in silver mining in the 1820s during Latin America’s wars of independence, for example, which was followed by the US crisis of the 1830s and, as a matter of interest to those interested in Chinese history, with the replacement of silver exports with opium to the silver-starved Qing government in China). Whereas Britain may not have been an engine of growth for 18th Century India, or at least for the Indian textile industry, it was for much of the 19th Century the world’s engine of growth because it supplied much of the capital that a savings-starved world needed to fund investment.

But when savings rates are excessive, which is often a consequence of income inequality and a high state share of GDP, as I show in one of my earlier blog posts, the problem the economy faces is insufficient demand, not insufficient savings available for investment. In fact as consumption declines with the rising savings rate, it tends to reduce the need for productive investment, so that both productive investment and consumption tend to drop.

iamback

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Quote from: CoinCube on January 05, 2015, 08:27:31 PM

In what way are these mutually exclusive? Provided one does not neglect personal decentralized self-sufficiency why shouldn't a rational actor in our current environment also participate in the local collective and attempt to restrain said collective. To do otherwise is to yield the floor to those who will make decentralized self-sufficiency more difficult to achieve.

Because you will waste time and effort that could have been used to actually achieve it without being slave (dependent) on what the State does. And you will not stop the State from spiraling into the abyss, because the majority is going to demand expropriation. You can't suddenly change the situation of the majority. The majority has no other option and all the (political or even violent) fighting you do can't give them another option.

The economic reality and trajectory was written into stone decades ago. It can't be altered. The economic reality is what it is.

My advice to everyone is pay off all your debt because in a deflationary collapse that is underway (see oil under $50 today!) the government can take your assets and leave you with debt to pay but no assets to pay with. And debtor's prisons are returning. Even though I was reduced to near pauper, I prioritized paying off my credit card debts in 2014 and did pay $20,000 of it off for less than $10,000 by accepting best offers for negotiated settlement. I only have about $2000 of debt remaining (except that my ex took out a $25,000 student loan recently and I don't know if the USA will try to pin that on me).

Also radically reduce the risk to unjust IRS audits and assessments, because these will become more common.

Also radically reduce the risk to lawsuits, because these will become more common as westerners get desperate.

Then the next priority is to align your vocation with the Knowledge Age and so you have income even during global economic collapse and your skills are transportable to any location you might choose to move to as the chaos takes form.

Gold can become an albatross around your neck, because you can't reliably and easily move it internationally. In fact, I lost much of my wealth because I couldn't physically carry my 18,000oz with me from USA to the Philippines, and so I had to trust others and that is one facet of where the losses accrued over time.

aminorex

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Sine secretum non libertas

Shelby seems to like demurrage because he sees the cultural damage done by power-law distribution of wealth. I hold to the contrary, that Coase's theorem comes into play with regard to liquidity no less than other instrumentalities, that trade effects efficient distribution. Note that extreme concentrations are present now, after decades of regulatory capture. It is only by corruption, which creates barriers to trade, that such damaging extremes have been achieved. Other instances of extreme wealth concentration, such that it actually drains the pool, and sinks most boats, share this dynamic, almost without exception. (In my limited personal awareness of the moment, entirely without exception.)

I contend that in a decentral, knowledge-age economy, where code is law, such corruption and capture is a relatively minor factor. If it were not, then any attempt to engineer demurrage would be doomed to failure. The very fact that one could succeed with a currency which incorporates demurrage (whether by inflation or other means) would imply that it was not necessary to do so, because the regime would be a relatively uncorrupt one. Consequently I see nothing but downside in the attempt. The desirable outcome is a level playing field, in which transactions are free, nigh frictionless, and contracting is libre. Then any capital formation is efficient, productive, and lifts all the boats. Yes, abuses will occur, but in the statistical aggregate, they are of no consequence when efficiency and freedom allow prosperity to flourish. In order to achieve an optimal long-run result, it is necessary to accept a higher variance than one might otherwise prefer. Life is too complex to be monomaniacal in pursuit of monotonicity.

I fear that frictions to capital formation will de-optimize (pessimize, if you will) the long-run aggregate outcome for all of humanity no less than do frictions resulting from gerrymandering the topology of the solution space. Smooth spaces, God willing even nearly everywhere convex domains, are much more amenable to eudamonic convergence.

CoinCube

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Quote from: iamback on January 05, 2015, 07:17:46 PM

Correcting false (strawman) dichotomies

CoinCube, my point from the outset of the recent discussion with you et al, was that no one can fight socialism by trying to get the entire country (nor West) to reverse course. "Slowing socialism down" is another collectivized ideal, thus antithetical to the truth.

Rather decentralized self-sufficiency actions (e.g. finding gainful vocation in the Knowledge Age in a way that prevents the State from expropriating your earnings) that better you and yours do in fact slow socialism down, but not because that collective goal was your motivation. As soon as a person bases their actions around a collective goal at nation-state scope (e.g. we must politically stop the expropriation), they are no longer prioritizing decentralized maximum-division-of-labor knowledge formation and have become a socialist.

Instead be clever about maximizing your and yours situation.

In what way are these mutually exclusive? Provided one does not neglect personal decentralized self-sufficiency why shouldn't a rational actor in our current environment also participate in the local collective and attempt to restrain said collective. To do otherwise is to yield the floor to those who will make decentralized self-sufficiency more difficult to achieve.

iamback

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Correcting false (strawman) dichotomies

CoinCube, my point from the outset of the recent discussion with you et al, was that no one can fight socialism by trying to get the entire country (nor West) to reverse course. "Slowing socialism down" is another collectivized ideal, thus antithetical to the truth. Precisely the problem with collectivism is that there can be only one direction (no degrees-of-freedom).

Rather decentralized self-sufficiency actions (e.g. finding gainful vocation in the Knowledge Age in a way that prevents the State from expropriating your earnings) that better you and yours do in fact slow socialism down, but not because that collective goal was your motivation. As soon as a person bases their actions around a collective goal at nation-state scope (e.g. we must politically stop the expropriation), they are no longer prioritizing decentralized maximum-division-of-labor knowledge formation and have become a socialist.

I am just telling everyone to give up on that patriotic crap, because it can't be orthogonal to collectivism. Instead view yourself as a citizen of your own sovereign world, not of a country of your compatriot slaves. Why be a slave to a country?

Instead be clever about maximizing your and yours situation.

The Knowledge Age will be providing that innovation in the physical economy too (e.g. no need to ship or manufacture items, just download design and print at home on 3D printer, or software for automation of physical labor with robots)! Apparently you are not understanding where the distinction is made. The antithesis of the Knowledge Age is not the physical economy, rather it is the fixed capital economies-of-scale (e.g. getting a loan to construct a factory) that enable the power law distribution of wealth to leech (collect parasitic rents) from the productive knowledge economy. It is as you forget the main point of my "Rise of Knowledge" essay in the OP is that the Knowledge Age down values financialization and stored monetary capital, and up values individual knowledge and productivity, because knowledge isn't fungible and thus can't be financed.

I think rather than focus on my statement that the value of physical commodities are declining instead focus more on the following two points.

1.

Quote from: iamback on January 05, 2015, 09:51:39 AM

Why USA lost its economic incentive to assimilate

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/12/how-might-a-china-slowdown-affect-the-world/#comment-108803

Quote from: me

...

But as I have explained in my theory of a fledgling Knowledge Age, that the individual knowledge workers didn't have the economy-of-scale to produce and distribute their own knowledge works in a physical economy, and thus were enslaved by fixed capital in the Theory of the Firm and the Industrial Age. But the internet and virtual work and distribution has changed all that. Just like the Second Industrial Revolution was brought on by network effects from the First Industrial Revolution, we are now underway in the Second Computer Revolution where the network effects from the First Computer Revolution are starting to kick in and take effect. Anyone who fails to understand how this changes everything is going to have their myopic teeth kicked out by reality.

CoinCube

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Lots of interesting back and forth. Lets see if some consensus can be achieved.
Essentially the arguments above boil down to the following.

1) OROBTC argues that the US may be screwed but everywhere else is in worse shape. OROBTC also notes that the US maintains several advantages in the physical economy.

2) Anonymint counters that the physical economy is declining and will be irrelevant in the future negating this US advantage.

3) pungopete468 argues that the massive gun ownership in the US coupled with the large minority of pro-freedom individuals will establish the conditions for a recovery in the US, perhaps following significant violent confrontation/fracture. He also argues that those in the USA should not abandon hope or abandon the dream that they have held onto for so many generations.

4) Anonymint counters that socialism will not be reversed in the USA and essentially that the factors listed by pungopete468 are insufficient. He argues that the Gen Y will putsh for more socialism and that this push cannot be stopped due to the factors listed in Understand Everything Fundamentally.

It is my opinion that all of these arguments are correct. The reasons for this are not immediately obvious. Lets start with the physical economy.

The Physical Economy

Anonymint is correct that the physical economy will decline into relative insignificance. He is also correct that the physical economy will collapse spectacularly when the debt bubble bursts. However, the physical economy will never disappear entirely. It is important to note that even in a full blown knowledge age the relatively insignificant physical economy will continually grow.

The physical economy is never going to disappear. There remain great fortunes that will be won by pioneers in the physical economy. As we transition to the knowledge age, however, these fortunes will decline along with the overall importance of the physical economy. The greatest fortunes of the future will be made in the knowledge economy.

The physical economy will collapse when the global debt bubble bursts. However, this collapse should not be mistaken for an immediate transition into insignificance. The physical economy will bottom at some (much lower) level and then gradually start to grow once more. It is only over a much longer time horizon long after the debt bubble is ancient history that Physical will fade to insignificance. OROBTC is correct that the advantages the USA has in the physical economy will continue to matter for the near term (the relevant planning horizon for those of us around today) Anonymint is correct that our descendants will see those advantages fade to relative insignificance (but never vanish entirely). As a store of value gold, in the long run, is likely to mirror the physical economy and decline into insignificance. In the short term having some on hand is probably good idea.

Resistance to Socialism in the US

In Anonymint's writings about Europe he predicts that Europe will not fracture but will instead grow more centralized. Unarmed countries like Japan with relatively docile populations will never fracture no matter how bad socialism becomes. It is very easy in unarmed countries for a central authority to maintain control through the police/military/violence. The mere fact that we are discussing the possible fracture of the USA is an indication that something is fundamentally different in the USA. Those 300 million guns spread among 80 million households do matter.

Socialism will not be stopped in the US. Those opposing socialism will not be able to stop generation Y and a population dependent on the government from taking the US down the road of totalitarian socialism. Anonymint is correct that those resisting socialism in the US will fail.

However, pungopete468 is also correct when he argues that Americans should not abandon hope and that "people can find it within themselves not to give up on a dream that they have held onto for so many generations; one that we've gone astray from". It may be impossible to stop the growth of socialism in the US, but it is entirely possible to slow it. This is not a battle that is starting now. It has been fought for the last 100 years. The socialist have been winning and will continue to win, but in the US they have been slowed. This ongoing battle is the reason the US has less socialism than Japan and Europe and the reason capital is fleeing the rest of the west to the USA. The result of this battle is that the US today has less taxes, a stronger economy, and less regulation. Socialism grew at a slower rate.

It is entirely possible that a unified world socialism could strangle the fledgling knowledge economy in its infancy. If that happens we face a Dark Age. The outcome of the battle over socialism in the USA may be predetermined, but, one can lose every battle and still win the war. Resistance in the US will slow socialism globally. The West may expropriate its own high tech sector and destroy it, but this will occur later in the US. The population of the US will also get to watch firsthand as Japan and Europe go first into the socialist abyss and this will further strengthen opposition. This window of time bought by those who resist will allow the knowledge sector to thrive (for a time) in the USA even after the debt bubble bursts. The resistance will also distract and hinder a unified world socialism from potentially destroying the knowledge economy in its infancy. Anonymint is correct that socialism in the USA will not be stopped, that does not make resistance pointless.

iamback

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For more drama, I will dedicate one of my favorite songs of all time to this.

The Smiths - It's Over. Or the live version.

For those who are young enough and into hands-on people work than lonely programming, I suggest starting a discreet international security services firm. Communities and even individuals will need to hire private security and install security technology to deal with what is coming[1].

[1]	http://www.king5.com/story/news/local/seattle/2014/12/19/whittier-heights-seattle-police/20628207/ http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2014/11/rural-crime-keeps-getting-worse-what-do.html (how can rich people protect their ranches?)

I hope we Anglo-Saxons (westerners) can regain ourselves and families and rid ourselves of the malaise of the trap socialism and feminism.

Quote from: OROBTC on January 05, 2015, 04:48:07 PM

...

iamback

Fair enough if you do not wish to further discuss my views.

Best of luck to you brother.

Thank you so much for your kind words. Same to you brother. Wonderful to see us appreciate each other.

OROBTC

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...

iamback

Fair enough if you do not wish to further discuss my views.

Best of luck to you brother.

iamback

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Now you understand why CoinCube took the thread so seriously. He is genuinely concerned.

But I think some parts of the USA may break off from the rest and do well. Perhaps the Idaho and East WA area, to merge with Canada and Vancouver. Or just migrate to Canada, their prospects look much better given the better demographics. The socialism is mostly in the big cities. Luckily Canada has a high proportionality of Asian wealth and knowledge capital pouring in.

Americans are lucky, because obtaining Canada citizenship isn't so difficult (at least if you act now). But I don't suggest any rash actions. Be methodical. It will take some years for this to play out. You have some time to think clearly first. I am not even sure if I would move if was in the USA, I might try to hold fort some where and find a non-socialist community or just ride the socialism and hide my assets and knowledge. But I already bugged out of the USA years ago.

Whereas, Europeans are pretty much isolated — no country along their land borders with good demographic prospects. Perhaps Greece will break away from the Euro, then that would be the place for Libertarian Europeans to immigrate to. Some from Spain and Portugal escaped to former colonies, but unfortunately the situation of Latin America doesn't look favorable in the Knowledge Age due to the rampant socialism in their culture. Latin America appears to me to be headed into the socialism abyss along with the West, not coming out of totalitarianism and cronyism as China and India are. There might be exceptions such as Guatemala, although for example Panama appears to be going the wrong direction.

Europeans could consider migrating to Russia, because I think freedom will break out in Russia just as in China. I think Russia is coming out of Communism and Putin is just a temporary blip. But culturally Russia probably has a long way to go as compared to China which is on an accelerated pathway towards capitalism and free markets.

Armstrong said he was going to put out a report on the best countries for riding out this crisis. But he hasn't updated the status of that plan for the past few months. I will email him and ask for an update.

Armstrong had mentioned Florida (and I believe Texas) for their special treatment of bankruptcy and real estate exclusion. Rural Texans are very self-sufficient. I haven't looked to see what % of the Texas population is rural. But I see a lot of welfare and socialism in Texas cities.

I've done my research on countries, but I am not going to share it, because it is specialized to my situation which is somewhat unique.

We may have war first between Russia and NATO, and China and Japan, as proxy wars of the USA. So it is not entirely clear to me that migrating to Russia or SE Asia now is the wise move.

We live in interesting and tumultuous times — a Chinese curse proverb.

iamback

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I will just respond to the parts I didn't already address or refute upthread...

Quote from: OROBTC on January 05, 2015, 01:40:06 AM

I have not been to India nor Pakistan, but everything credible I read is that their young geniuses (the "Knowledge Age" vanguard to vanquish America I presume) in the ghettos are "not ready for prime time" in the sense of being able to make any more than marginal changes to the world. I have been to China, Brazil and South Africa, their young geniuses will not make much difference either.

Are you ready for a reality check!

India just did a Mars mission that only cost $87 million, because they know how to leverage their relative strengths.

That is a sign of the Knowledge Age in action already! In spades! So please all those who tell me it will not happen quickly. It is already happening.

As an analogy to billions of medium talent worker ants of Asia, Manny Pacquiao wins not by the power of his single punch, but by attrition of the accumulation of his rapid fire almost machine gun like punches. When he beats the 46-0 undefeated Floyd Gayweather this May 2nd, that will be another sign of Asia's coming dominance. Yeah Tyson could hit much harder, but he couldn't punch non-stop as Pacman can. A human can actually be killed by ants.

And for his recent fights Pacman has fought in Macau (instead of the USA) where the taxes are much lower! He will come back to fight in the USA this May 2 to make Floyd STFU, then anybody who wants to fight him will have to come to Macau.

The shift is underway already folks.

Quote from: OROBTC on January 05, 2015, 01:40:06 AM

People want to move to the USA. Yes, sure, some Indians and Chinese go back. Why not? Seek their fortune "back home" once they have earned their grubstake here. That's called freedom! A big reason many stay here.

No it is called socialism and free handouts and yes people love to immigrate to get it, and socialism is what destroyed Rome and every empire. USA is being leeched out of existence.

Quote from: OROBTC on January 05, 2015, 01:40:06 AM

Peru is not the only place with physical and cultural constraints to an imminent "Knowledge Age". Peru has the ANDES making transport much more difficult.

Apparently you misunderstood and inverted the logic of my upthread point. The geographical barriers are not a constraint to the Knowledge Age, which is why the USA loses its favorable economic position which fostered the assimilation during the Industrial Age.

Quote from: OROBTC on January 05, 2015, 01:40:06 AM

Places like India & Pakistan treat their women like second-class citizens.

Women are not statistically in the S.T.E.M. fields and thus actually a disruptive frictional drag on the Knowledge Age. Individual women may excel, but that is orthogonal to the point. I support a woman's desire to excel in S.T.E.M. fields if she wants to, but not with government mandating special treatment for women, because this just destroys the women!

Feminism is another reason the West can't compete with Asia. You are apparently a prime example of the malaise.

Quote from: OROBTC on January 05, 2015, 01:40:06 AM

RUSSIA is always on the verge of banning Bitcoin, sound like a winner to any of you? China has recently banned GOOGLE services, ah, is that what #Winners do?

I explained upthread that the people of China are ignoring the government and the Communist Party will melt away as the Knowledge Age takes over.

The salient point is one of trajectory with the West is headed deeper into totalitarianism and the East is headed out of it.

Quote from: OROBTC on January 05, 2015, 01:40:06 AM

The Knowledge Age will be held back in countries run by corrupt crony mafias...

The Knowledge Age is routing right around it. Do you know how many Android smartphones there are in China, Russia, Irag, etc!! Do you not understand that is the Knowledge Age underway.

I am not going to argue with you back and forth. If you still can't grasp your myopia, then I will just ignore you. Because I have important work to do in the Knowledge Age, not trying to get people who can't be in it because they are too ignorant.

Quote from: OROBTC on January 05, 2015, 01:40:06 AM

I do respect Dr. Jim Willie, he has great insights and apparently great contacts

You are delusional. I can't really help people who like to delude themselves and aren't scholarly enough to do good study and research.

Quote from: OROBTC on January 05, 2015, 01:40:06 AM

I went and looked at the latest several articles of Martin Armstrong, whom I had run into before he was sprung from prison. I am withholding judgement on his general thesis (theses) as they are not easy to digest in a couple of sittings (like FOFOA is not easy).

Read the entire Mad Max thread. I already distilled Armstrong there.

FOFOA is another idiot who banned me from his blog when I refuted him.

Quote from: OROBTC on January 05, 2015, 01:40:06 AM

I noticed nothing obvious from Armstrong about the "Knowledge Age", but perhaps contagion is arguing Knowledge Age from other bloggers (I just do not recall).

Because I am the canonical source. I invented the term.

Quote from: OROBTC on January 05, 2015, 01:40:06 AM

America is splintered, we no longer have the "Melting Pot" style of thinking. We are very diverse. Yet China, Russia and India are very splintered as well

You have selective reading comprehension. You completely ignored that I also wrote they don't have government as 50 - 75% of GDP (instead more in the 15 - 25% range) with $100 trillion of constituent liabilities. They are coming out of socialism abyss all fresh and renewed, the West is going into the totalitarian socialism abyss all decadent and rotting.

The West will expropriate its own high tech sector and destroy it, because it must go get the money where the money is, because it has to meet its obligations. France is proposing a tax on the internet. Obama is proposing 16% tax and illegal executive order on the FCC to regulate and tax the internet as a public utility. The West is heading into Fascism.

Quote from: OROBTC on January 05, 2015, 01:40:06 AM

Keep diversified, and keep your gold

It can't help you.

Quote from: OROBTC on January 05, 2015, 01:40:06 AM

Does that mean I am saying, "Don't learn programming or the nuts & bolts of Bitcoin or other technology"? Not at all. Those are skills of the future (probably), and will likely lead to a good living.

Correct.

Quote from: OROBTC on January 05, 2015, 01:40:06 AM

But, will the Age of Knowledge fix those potholes in Cleveland and Calcutta in the foreseeable future?

Nope.

Irrelevant.

iamback

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iamback

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Quote from: AnonyMint on February 01, 2014, 11:30:59 PM

Quote from: CoinCube

Quote from: practicaldreamer on February 01, 2014, 11:53:04 PM

Am I missing something here or is Coincube and Anonymint the same person ?

Anyways this is me.
[link has been redacted]

And this is me 20 years ago (photos taken in mid 1990s):
http://www.coolpagehelp.com/developer.html

I am suggesting to CoinCube that we write a book entitled, The Post-Industrial Knowledge Age, and publish to Google Play and Amazon Kindle (and perhaps even Apple's walled garden bullshit). Because it seems we have complemented each other naturally, even though we didn't have any a priori relationship. I met him here in this thread.

I haven't yet attempted to research for similar books that have already been published. Google Chairman Eric Schmidt's, The New Digital Age: Reshaping the Future of People, Nations and Business, is one related book.

We really need to get these concepts organized, with comprehensive support by real data and citations.

I am not a good enough writer to do it by myself and I already committed to too many urgent programming tasks to even attempt it by myself.

If anyone thinks they are qualified to help, please PM me.

~~CoinCube, sorry I can't remove that link above~~, [redacted]

I don't think we have anything to hide. It is not like we are developing an anonymous cryptocurrency or anything nefarious. Just writing about the potential changes for the future in a non-partisan and objective way should keep us out of trouble. But perhaps your employer wouldn't like the controversy of you authoring a provocative book which is not in the medical field, although arguably within the scope of your mathematics double major.

P.S. The above link of mine died, because I decided not to renew the coolpagehelp.com domain, but the page is available on the web archive:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130320133257/http://www.coolpagehelp.com/developer.html

CoinCube, the area of the country you live is still very community oriented and has the traditional values of the USA. I really enjoyed my drive through that region in the summer of 2003 coming from Corpus Christi, TX where I lived for 2 years and headed towards Bellingham, WA where my mother lives. I really thought about settling there, but I hate snow and cold weather. So I can see why you would be foreign to the concept of a USA that is not functioning well. But the population centers of the USA are not in your region. The real USA is decadent and disassimilating, with some exceptions in rural areas and perhaps the NorthWet, maybe even Minnesota area although I've never been there so I dunno.

Btw, I don't hate any race and especially not Hispanics. And there are many upstanding Hispanics who are fine members of the community. I was talking statistical attributes and decadence/disassimilation, not individuals. Remember statistical preferences are not racism. Racism is not allowing a person any chance because of the statistical facts, or worse is stereotypes which are not even statistically valid.

If there are any readers of African or Hispanic heritage, please do not think I automatically disrespect you. I form my judgments on a case-by-case, individual-by-individual basis. Besides, I hope to interact online where I don't even see a person's race. And I am not pure Anglo-Saxon. I have Cherokee ancestry (who Btw migrated from Europe, not Asia like some other tribes), in addition to Welsh (see my beloved grandfather who was a CPA), Southern France (perhaps really Italian), and German.

If you see any city or town named Shelby in the USA, that is because of my ancestor Isaac Shelby.

Hey I grew up until age 15 in inner city New Orleans and Baton Rouge. My sister and I were the only white kids in the entire elementary school in Baton Rouge. The black kids had never touched fine hair before, so I often had oily hands touching my blonde hair from behind my back. I interacted with many blacks, and even I like their style, but fact is that school was a zoo! All the kids did was throw spit balls in the classroom.

My education suffered until my Dad put me in Ecole Classique for 8th grade. Up until that time, I had been to perhaps a half a dozen schools. I immediately accelerated, acing my classes especially Algebra I, then the next year Geometry and Algebra II, Latin, biology. Then completing college Calculus at night before graduating High School, while also becoming a top 3 runner on the XCountry and Track teams. I had a setback in first semester of 10th grade because I had left my mother in Louisiana to go live with my father in Culver City, CA. The first semester I was drunk always but only got one B and rest As. I had a 4.0 (all As), the rest of the way through school from then on.

I think had I been accelerated much earlier, I would have ended up a PhD. So maybe it is good I wasn't but instead my life took a much more tumultuous and tormented path.

iamback

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: General_A on January 05, 2015, 03:54:31 AM

Quote from: contagion on January 03, 2015, 08:10:27 PM

Quote from: Morbid on January 03, 2015, 08:04:41 PM

Jim Willie:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHsESOY6kNA#t=334

Why are people still listening to these idiot gold promoters? I was debating Jim Willie in email back in 2007, when he admitted to me he is an alcoholic. He made no sense then and still doesn't now. Do I need to publish some of these old emails?

If you have them please do....

Here is one example email. I will have to wade through all them to find the meat of where I formed my opinion of him.

Here is something he wrote which ended being the opposite of what is happening, with the dollar (and thus the US economy) gaining more ingress as the rest of the world is declining first:

> here is a queer thought and question ?
> if the USEconomy slows down, trade deficit might fall, but federal deficit
> might rise
> if that happens, less foreign held US$ to buy USTBonds,
> when even more are needed to handle an exploding USGovt debt burden

As you can see, everything I wrote below came true. Interest rates declined, QE happened, and commodities (or at least gold and silver) peaked just after 2010. I figured that is about low the global economy could absorb more debt before the global marginal-utility-of-debt went negative. I had these things pretty much figured out back in 2006.

---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Re: Don't expect long-term interest rate to increase that much
From: me
Date: Mon, August 28, 2006 4:20 pm
To: [email protected]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks Jim, I didn't consider all those detailed effects.

> the longbond continues down in yield as the US trade deficit and oil bills
> rise
> not much official Fed secret monetization is necessary consequently
>
> if China had a more mature bond & stock market, they would have drawn
> huge amounts of foreign surplus money to invest
> but they dont
>
> heck, even Europe does not believe it has enough liquidity to handle
> petro-euro sales
> the USTrezBond market is a veritable black hole
> / jim
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: me
> To: [email protected]
> Sent: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 4:49 PM
> Subject: Don't expect long-term interest rate to increase that much xat
>
>
> Common logic is that housing must crash, because long interest rates must
> go rise drastically, due to hyperinflation in supply of paper money (M3).
>
> However, that is not what has been happening in reality:
>
> http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/M3%20vs.%20CPI%20vs.%20Interest%20Rates.gif
>
> As M3 hyperinflation has been accelerating over past 2 decades,
> long-interest rates have been declining. The trend is very clear, just
> look at the above chart!
>
> Why?
>
> Imho, it is because there is always an oversupply of paper money to buy
> long-term debt (due to the acceleration of M3) and long-interest rates
> reflect the expectations for deflation (global depression) after the
> boomers retire, because standing after the boomers are billions of
> low-wage laborers.
>
> The Central Banks have a lot of room to hyperinflate in order to fill in
> this gap between low-wage and high-wage economies.
>
> And who says the Fed can't print money to buy long-term debt, either
> directly or indirectly!
>
> Bottom line is I expect trends to continue, until the western boomers
> retire, which reaches it's apex around 2010 or so in USA:
>
> http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Inflating%20Deflation.html
>
> This is wonderful for us contrarian investors, because the hyperinflation
> in paper money in order to maintain this trend (and not crash the $400
> trillion derivatives), means that commodities, energy (esp. uranium), and
> especially precious metals will accelerate in relative value faster,
> because of the disportionate ratios created by this paradigm. What I mean
> by disportionate ratios, is for example, how keeping housing prices flat
> (or +/- few %), means dramatic drawdowns in LME inventories for base
> metals, generating supply crises such as we have today in Nickel. Or how
> the Money Chart gets more out of whack for total supply of Silver & Gold
> relative to total supply of fiat instruments:
>
> http://silverstockreport.com/email/The_Money_Chart.html
> ________________________________________________________________________
> Check out AOL.com today. Breaking news, video search, pictures, email and
> IM. All on demand. Always Free.
>

iamback

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

iamback

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

I will slamdunk against all the recently posted retorts in my next post after this one. I need to put this issue to rest, I have other more important work to do.

I see even now Peking Prof. (and China "expert") Michael Pettis is censoring my replies, even though I had been commenting on his blog for several years. So that means he is going to allow this overconfident (Dunning-Kruger effect) 20-something "Suvy" to spout his myopia without being refuted.

Plagues caused by economic collapse—not vice versa

Here follows what I replied and was censored.

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/12/how-might-a-china-slowdown-affect-the-world/#comment-108694

Quote from: me

Quote from: Suvy

BTW, in the period for Rome you’re talking about, there was disease epidemics where almost 50% of the Roman population died. Of course the currency will collapse as production certainly did.

In 235, it started off with the assasination of an emperor. At around the same time period, smallpox broke out causing massive population declines. Trade became impossible and unsafe, largely from the stem of disease and political breakdown. Shifts in the climate caused massive population relocations, creating war.

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4946&cpage=1#comment-402900

Quote from: me a.k.a. JustSaying

@Winter:
You attempt to remove blame from the effects of top-down governance. Agriculture in Western Europe declined for numerous reasons all of which can be attributed to mismanagement due to top-down control and the funding of such misallocation. Socialized debt is a future tax. The agricultural sector was suffering under increasing taxes after the hyperinflation of the 3rd century had adversely impacted funding for the military while there were increasing military threats to the east. Pottery records indicate production increased through the 4th, as the rural sector was squeezed for every drop by Rome. As with all debt funding, growth was too rapid, and irrigation was polluted by clearing for too many new settlements. The resultant malnutrition, declining production, localized warlords, and thus disease coincided with the collapse of Western Europe due to the bankruptcy of its top-down militarized, servitude model.

We will likely find the same top-down cause applies to of all Dark Ages– even the famines in Africa.

Let me add to that just like in the West where the boomers are attacking the economy by demanding pensions and even the police and governments are now extorting money with Civil Asset Forfeiture, the Roman legions started to ransack the Roman cities to fund their pensions. And you have not seen anything yet, because the West hasn't yet collapsed economically. After 2016, then you will see the really horrific, extremist actions kick into higher gear. As for the moment, everyone is using the illusory measuring ruler propped up temporarily by a $200 trillion global debt bubble.

These rampaging legions and the barbarians spread the diseases, just as the attacking barbarians at Ukraine threw the diseased bodies over the defensive walls which lead to the introduction and spread of the Black Death through Europe.

Armstrong has even recently put out the thought that the rise in the War Cycle as of 2014 will lead to more disease spread and the pandemic predicted by his cyclic model to peak in 2019.

Silverspoon

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Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote from: Morbid on January 05, 2015, 08:00:02 AM

...russia is fighting the system that been placed there by usa financial advisors after collapse of soviet union. every business set up in such way that profit dont stay in russia, so vast network of offshores set up for sucking wealth away. ...

So who set up this system in US?

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